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Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option

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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#121 » by bluerap23 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:30 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:
I hate the $10 million draft pick argument. We didn't sign JB for $28 million. The dollars spent on salary is based on a budget that has nothing to do with draft pick compensation. I get that draft picks are valuable, but equating it to additional salary is a huge stretch.


It's not additional salary for 2017, but it is an opportunity cost. The higher salary may come in future years when instead of paying the draft pick $550K league minimum we may have to pay a veteran $5M+ per year. The $10M is based on a number of things, such as probabilities of sandwich picks making it to the bigs, league average salaries, etc.


I get it. I just don't agree that it is equivalent to paying JB $28.
There are a number of other arguments to be made. For example having JB over MS (for example) may end up generating far more than $10 million in ticket and merchandising if it means contention vs. non-contention.

If the 2017 budget was $190 million would we care...
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#122 » by Schad » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:57 pm

bluerap23 wrote:If the 2017 budget was $190 million would we care...


We should, yes. The good big market teams certainly do.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#123 » by Skin Blues » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:03 pm

bluerap23 wrote:There are a number of other arguments to be made. For example having JB over MS (for example) may end up generating far more than $10 million in ticket and merchandising if it means contention vs. non-contention.

Yes, there are lots of factors. We should include as many as we can rather the excluding ones that are a) easily quantified and b) of significant value relative to the overall money spent. In this case, the opportunity cost of losing the draft picks is more than 50% of the cash we're spending up front. What sense does it make to ignore that? If the expected ticket and merchandise revenue boost from signing Bautista was $10M more than what we'd expect to get from a player that costs as much as he does, for sure it would be included! But in reality that number is negligible, and it's taken into account in the way $$ per WAR is calculated.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#124 » by wamco » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:24 pm

Take the money we were going to spend on the drafted player and use it on a reliever
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#125 » by polo007 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:18 pm

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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#126 » by Schad » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:35 am

wamco wrote:Take the money we were going to spend on the drafted player and use it on a reliever


$2m can get you an excellent draftee. It gets you a pretty mediocre reliever.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#127 » by polo007 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:56 am


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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#128 » by bballsparkin » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:17 am

Happy to have him back. **** Baltimore. No long term commitment and the signing matches the Jays immediate window. I doubted management last year and they did a pretty good job so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this year.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#129 » by Mitty87 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:10 am

I think whatever the draft pick value we might have lost (if the pick even amounts to anything) is worth it for the chance he is that much of a better player over the remaining free agents. If Jose gets us to 87 wins compared to 84, not saying he will, but it's a lot more valuable to us than if we were a 78 win team before him.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#130 » by The Duke » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:18 pm

What if it was opening day, and no body signed Jose at that point.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#131 » by Schad » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:37 pm

Sounds like ownership is already meddling with Shapiro and Atkins. Whether one thinks this deal was a good choice or not, that's a big concern.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#132 » by Skin Blues » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:17 pm

Mitty87 wrote:I think whatever the draft pick value we might have lost (if the pick even amounts to anything) is worth it for the chance he is that much of a better player over the remaining free agents. If Jose gets us to 87 wins compared to 84, not saying he will, but it's a lot more valuable to us than if we were a 78 win team before him.

Definitely. Where we are on the win curve, those extra 2-3 WAR are more valuable than to a much worse (or even much better) team. And you also have to look at the players you're replacing. If it wasn't Jose in RF, it'd probably be some combination of Upton/Carrera getting 500 additional PAs which is about as close to replacement as you can get. Signing Eddie to be our 1B, we already have decent options and the net gain in WAR isn't as much since you're only taking playing time away from players like Pearce and Morales. I like the signing. Although I think they could have gotten him cheaper, it's hard to know how other teams valued him. And really, any time you can get the best hitter on the free agent market for a reasonable price on a one year deal is very hard to complain about.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#133 » by Al_Oliver » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:18 pm

Schad wrote:Sounds like ownership is already meddling with Shapiro and Atkins. Whether one thinks this deal was a good choice or not, that's a big concern.


Seems like Baltimore had the same issue with Trumbo... Angelos wanted him signed
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#134 » by jaymeister15 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:30 pm

Schad wrote:Sounds like ownership is already meddling with Shapiro and Atkins. Whether one thinks this deal was a good choice or not, that's a big concern.


Meh, it's impossible for any of us to say how their conversations went. But, I think most of us would agree that Bautista was the best outfield option left on the market, particularly on a short term deal, so if Ed Rogers is willing to say "here's more money, get this guy signed" and tells them they won't have to rebuild, it's fine with me.

People don't like the corporate, balance sheet type of owner Rogers typically has been. So, this is the alternative, can't really have it both ways.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#135 » by Schad » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:35 pm

jaymeister15 wrote:Meh, it's impossible for any of us to say how their conversations went. But, I think most of us would agree that Bautista was the best outfield option left on the market, particularly on a short term deal, so if Ed Rogers is willing to say "here's more money, get this guy signed" and tells them they won't have to rebuild, it's fine with me.

People don't like the corporate, balance the sheet type of owner Rogers typically has been. So, this is the alternative, can't really have it both ways.


There isn't any indication that we were given more money, though. Just that ownership pushed them to use the money they have made available on Bautista.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#136 » by jaymeister15 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:39 pm

Schad wrote:
There isn't any indication that we were given more money, though. Just that ownership pushed them to use the money they have made available on Bautista.


I'm just going on this quote from Jeff Blair:

""What really makes me feel better about this deal is I'm hearing, and I trust the people I hear this from, that Edward Rogers gave Mark Shapiro additional money to get the Bautista deal done -- knowing full well the team still needs to address the bullpen and backup catcher, effectively removing the last impediment to putting the Bautista contract to rest,"

Who knows if it's completely accurate, but seems reasonable enough.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#137 » by sharmaraps » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:09 pm

This team could be better than last years team. Lower expectations and a 2nd year for a pitching rotation that was lights out last year. A good bullpen and maybe one more player and perhaps we are a surprise in the AL East this year.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#138 » by I_Like_Dirt » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:44 pm

Schad wrote:Sounds like ownership is already meddling with Shapiro and Atkins. Whether one thinks this deal was a good choice or not, that's a big concern.


Depends a bit on how it played out. If Shapiro was able to work in a budget increase specifically for Bautista's salary, it doesn't really concern me at all. Unless the team implodes, it's highly likely keeping Bautista more than pays for itself in terms of revenues and marketing. If management pushed for it and left the budget the same... yuck. I doubt we'll ever know. It's somewhat amusing to me, though, how ownership taking credit works both ways - casual fans see them as supporters of the team who help to bring back a popular player while more astute baseball fans won't blame Shapiro for it. Win-win?
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#139 » by Schad » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:41 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
Schad wrote:Sounds like ownership is already meddling with Shapiro and Atkins. Whether one thinks this deal was a good choice or not, that's a big concern.


Depends a bit on how it played out. If Shapiro was able to work in a budget increase specifically for Bautista's salary, it doesn't really concern me at all. Unless the team implodes, it's highly likely keeping Bautista more than pays for itself in terms of revenues and marketing. If management pushed for it and left the budget the same... yuck. I doubt we'll ever know. It's somewhat amusing to me, though, how ownership taking credit works both ways - casual fans see them as supporters of the team who help to bring back a popular player while more astute baseball fans won't blame Shapiro for it. Win-win?


We'll see regarding the budget, but even then I'm not fond of it. This has been a Jays tradition...ownership prodding the people who actually know what they're doing to change direction for short-term financial considerations.
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Re: Bautista to return to Jays on 1YR deal + mutual option 

Post#140 » by polo007 » Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:57 pm

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