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Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too)

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Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#1 » by dagger » Tue Feb 7, 2017 9:19 pm

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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#2 » by Xaos » Tue Feb 7, 2017 9:23 pm

80-85 wins. In the hunt for a wild card. Unfortunately I don't think we make it this year.

Out starting rotation will be solid this year, barring any injuries. It's the bullpen i'm worried about.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#3 » by Schad » Tue Feb 7, 2017 9:28 pm

Low/mid 80s if the pitching staff is healthy; mid-high 70s if we suffer some injuries.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#4 » by The_Hater » Tue Feb 7, 2017 9:43 pm

Just like any team, the range of possible win totals is pretty wide.

It makes sense that they don't like us. Almost all the starting pitchers exceeded expectations last season and the lineup is getting up in years. But I still think we win more games then we lose.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#5 » by Lateral Quicks » Tue Feb 7, 2017 10:03 pm

.500 or better. 81-85 wins.

I expect the starting pitching to take a step back. I also don't see the offence being any better, and could quite conceivably be worse.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#6 » by BramptonYute » Wed Feb 8, 2017 1:16 am

83-85

Hopefully the pitching stays healthy, cause if they arent we're ****.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#7 » by Al_Oliver » Wed Feb 8, 2017 1:14 pm

OF is my concern... only Bautista is a major league hitter, yet he is a $%&^ fielder.
Pillar needs to not be terrible at the plate this season and someone needs to keep Carrera from playing.
I'll say 85 wins unless we can get a proper LF (internally or otherwise) before the end of July
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#8 » by ldnk » Wed Feb 8, 2017 4:27 pm

I'm thinking in the 80-84 range for wins. I think the starters are still underrated although due for injuries.
I don't trust the offense enough to buoy the team.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#9 » by Skin Blues » Wed Feb 8, 2017 5:45 pm

It's been two years in a row that the Jays' rotation has outperformed their FIP by the highest margin in the league, so perhaps there's some reason to think it can continue. Good defense can help ERA significantly, obviously, but one thing to keep in mind is that PECOTA takes into account defense already. It could be that the defensive value being added isn't captured by DRS/UZR. And maybe there's some un-measured benefit from Russell Martin's pitch framing or game calling, which might be worth a win or two I suppose. But I think we should be cautiously optimistic about the rotation. We got really lucky with health and good bounces last year which made a really good rotation appear to be an elite rotation.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#10 » by Duffman100 » Wed Feb 8, 2017 7:14 pm

Back half of our lineup are free outs.
Some key contributors are injury prone
Pitching will have to carry us.

80 wins? sounds about right. Wouldn't be surprised if it was less.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#11 » by phillipmike » Wed Feb 8, 2017 8:34 pm

Only the Astros, Mariners and potentially Indians got better. Boston got Sale, Thornberg and Moreland but lost Ortiz, Shaw, Bucholz, Ziegler, Uehera, Tazawa and Ziegler. Baltimore got worse. Tampa got worse. I think the Yankees got worse too. They already had Chapman. Will lose half a season of Miller too. Lost Tex, McCann, ARod, Evoldi and are trying to deal Gardner, Headley and others.A lot to put on young players.

If the Jays are relatively healthy like they were in 2015 and 2016 then i dont see why they cant be a high 80 win team either. The were on a 93 win pace before September last season and only 1 GB back of Boston on September 10th. They can be in the race for sure.

2017 Bautista can replace 2016 EE.
2017 Morales can replacd 2016 Saunders.
2017 Pearce can replace 2016 Bautista.
2017 Howell can replace 2016 Cecil.

With Upton and Zeke in Lf for a full season and Pearce at 1B the team is stronger defensively. Health is key but as long as they are healthy they should be battling the Red Sox for the division.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#12 » by Randle McMurphy » Thu Feb 9, 2017 4:06 am

87 wins. Josh Donaldson to continue being really good at baseball.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#13 » by Centre Court » Thu Feb 9, 2017 4:49 am

Somewhere between 0 and 162.


Basically, I don't have a clue.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#14 » by Santoki » Thu Feb 9, 2017 7:39 pm

82-84 wins with an outside shot at the wildcard but ultimately fall short seems like a fairly safe prediction. Anything more is a bonus imo and anything less will be a very disappointing season.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#15 » by dagger » Thu Feb 9, 2017 7:53 pm

85 wins if the team remains reasonably healthy, 73 wins if not, because in the latter case, playoffs will look like a long shot and management will be selling at the deadline
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#16 » by RaptorsJunkie » Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:43 am

I predict a 162-0 season.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#17 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:58 am

Fangraphs has us around 84 wins right now. It was closer to 80 on there back in November. I will go with 86 , mostly from what skin blues mentioned, an extra win or two from Martin and various starters.

The jays have had many .500 teams over the years and on paper this doesn't seem like one of them even though Edwin is gone. we're still strong in the right spots on the diamond, up the middle with martin , Tulo & Travis, Pillar saves runs. Just stay **** healthy.

Liriano has our 2nd best xfip projection for 2017 starters, that trade was huge for us. One projection I'm not sure about is Estrada's xfip of 4.97. That just doesn't seem very likely at all for a pitcher that most hitters can't distinguish between his fastball and change up but could definitely see a regression of some kind.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#18 » by JaysRule15 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:04 am

The stating lineup and rotation don't look too bad. But there is zero depth. We got super lucky with no major injuries last year. Can't count on that happening again. Any major injury or two will sink this team.

EE was a loss, but not as big as people make it out to be. With Morales, Pearce, a healthy Travis (fingers crossed) and hopefully a return to form for JB, I expect our offense to be at least close to its 2016 level. LF is a concern, but a platoon of Upton and Carrera isn't the worst thing in the world. Would be amazing if we have a prospect step up (Tellez, Pompey) and give us some value.

Need the rotation to continue to outperform their peripherals. Sanchez needs to continue doing what he did last year. I think Stroman will perform closer to what he did in the second half last year rather than his disastrous first half. Estrada is in his walk year and claims his back is much healthier, so I'm expecting him to give us a good season. Liriano could end up being the best 4-5 starter in baseball if his control doesn't abandon him for a couple of months (its happened before though). I'm a little concerned about Happ. We need him to repeat his 2016 season, and I just find it unrealistic that he'll do it. Hopefully, the gains from Stroman and possible Liriano offset any potential decline from Happ. Overall, I think this is still a top 3 rotation in the AL (behind the Indians and Red Sox).

Not very confident in this pen at all. I think that will be the cause of our downfall if we do miss the playoffs this season. Osuna and Biagini are fine, but we're relying on a 40-year-old Grilli to be our shutdown set-up guy. Howell and Smith have both declined the past couple of years, yet we're relying on them to pitch big innings. Then no doubt they'll be trying to capture lightning in a bottle again by giving unproven guys like Sparkman a shot. The loss of Cecil will be sorely felt imo. People were too fixated on Cecil's inflated ERA and didn't realize just how reliable he was for months at a time.

Overall, I think this team's ceiling is 90 wins if everything goes right. The offense will have to be competitive ( at least top 7 in runs scored), the rotation will have to steal us some games and the bullpen will have to be competent. The floor could be 78-80 wins though, if we deal with injuries, a regression to the rotation or a complete meltdown by the bullpen.

So, I guess, my projected win total would be 85 wins. Hopefully that keeps us the mix for the wild card and keeps things entertaining till September at least.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#19 » by bsjaffe6 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:40 pm

the one thing the makes predictions tricky is that unknown guy either a late add or a guy from the farm system that makes a breakthrough i believe 85+ wins if healthy is a good call
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#20 » by Mehar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:22 pm

Not sure about wins- but at the minimum, i think they will be in the hunt for one of the two wild card spots.

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