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Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too)

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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#21 » by dballislife » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:21 pm

it all depends on our pitching, if our starters live up to their potential and pen gives us a good year, we're still a 90+ win team

we'll go as far as our pitching takes us, cause our offense is still soild enough
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#22 » by RaptorsFTL » Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:54 pm

The gap between Morales and Edwin is a lot less than people think. The park and switch hitting is very valuable.

I would say most likely we battle for a WC. Can't see how Boston isn't first. The Yankees were really not to end the year but not sure they have the depth yet. They have their 1B back again healthy and he was on of their top prospects so let's see.

85 wins is probably my over under.

The health of the staff was incredible last year and we are relying very heavily on Grilli at his age and I wonder with Liriano shows this year.

Hoping for the best but it could also be one of those just one injury to the staff decimates our year. Every year though one player does come up and surprise like Biagini last year so let's see who that will be this year.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#23 » by rarefind » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:50 pm

84-85 wins. There is ridiculous amount of potential variance with this team, though. Ultimately having a "designated" DH is going to hurt this team forcing guys and their bat out of the lineup if they're banged up, at all. JD has spent weeks in the DH spot over the last couple of seasons while not being 100%. He won't be able to do that this year. If the injury bug bites hard this year, we will have some legitimate issues.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#24 » by phillipmike » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:45 pm

Donaldson didnt spend "weeks" in the DH spot at any point in his career.

In 2016 he spent a total of 19 games in the DH spot and it was never more than 3 games in a row all season. 5 games in April, none in May, 4 in June, 6 in July, 2 in August and 2 in September.

In 2015 he spent 7 games in the DH spot and there were no back to backs. 2 in April, 3 in June and 1 each in August and September.

Can go back to 2014 with Oakland and he only spent 9 games in the DH spot and only 2 in 2013.

If Donaldson is only going to need 10-15 games in the DH spot then they would have no problem playing Morales in the field as he played 7 games at 1B in 2016 and 9 in 2015 with a UZR/150 of +3 similar to Edwin's +3.5 in 2016. Jays will be fine with Morales at 1B for a short period of time. Morales isnt that big of a downgrade defensively from Edwin if he is needed in spot duty - now if you want to play Morales for a long period of time then you might get negative results as he hasnt played 1B for a long period of time since 2014 and that is more because the Royals had a healthy Hosmer playing 1B the last two seasons.

The problem shouldnt be Morales, he can play 1B if need be. Even if Morales couldnt play 1B and JD needs a rest in the DH spot then the Jays will give it to him over Morales because JD is a better hitter than Morales. But Morales can play 1B if need be, he has a similar flexibility to Edwin DH who can play 1B if needed.

Your normal configuration will 3B: Donaldson, 1B: Pearce and DH: Morales.

If JD needs to DH then it will be 3B: Barney, 1B: Morales and DH: Donaldson. The exact same as 2016 when Edwin was here. So it comes down to Barney vs Pearce in the lineup or Barney vs Upton/Carrera if Pearce is ready to play LF NOT Morales vs JD. Morales being a issue from a defensive standpoint in 2017 is over blown.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#25 » by rarefind » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:45 pm

phillipmike wrote:Donaldson didnt spend "weeks" in the DH spot at any point in his career.

In 2016 he spent a total of 19 games in the DH spot and it was never more than 3 games in a row all season. 5 games in April, none in May, 4 in June, 6 in July, 2 in August and 2 in September.

In 2015 he spent 7 games in the DH spot and there were no back to backs. 2 in April, 3 in June and 1 each in August and September.

Can go back to 2014 with Oakland and he only spent 9 games in the DH spot and only 2 in 2013.

If Donaldson is only going to need 10-15 games in the DH spot then they would have no problem playing Morales in the field as he played 7 games at 1B in 2016 and 9 in 2015 with a UZR/150 of +3 similar to Edwin's +3.5 in 2016. Jays will be fine with Morales at 1B for a short period of time. Morales isnt that big of a downgrade defensively from Edwin if he is needed in spot duty - now if you want to play Morales for a long period of time then you might get negative results as he hasnt played 1B for a long period of time since 2014 and that is more because the Royals had a healthy Hosmer playing 1B the last two seasons.

The problem shouldnt be Morales, he can play 1B if need be. Even if Morales couldnt play 1B and JD needs a rest in the DH spot then the Jays will give it to him over Morales because JD is a better hitter than Morales. But Morales can play 1B if need be, he has a similar flexibility to Edwin DH who can play 1B if needed.

Your normal configuration will 3B: Donaldson, 1B: Pearce and DH: Morales.

If JD needs to DH then it will be 3B: Barney, 1B: Morales and DH: Donaldson. The exact same as 2016 when Edwin was here. So it comes down to Barney vs Pearce in the lineup or Barney vs Upton/Carrera if Pearce is ready to play LF NOT Morales vs JD. Morales being a issue from a defensive standpoint in 2017 is over blown.


I said he spent weeks over his time here, I did not infer that he spent weeks there consecutively. We have numerous guys that on occasion have been dh'd to keep their bat in the lineup. JD, Tulo, Martin and Bautista. That luxury is now gone, without a doubt. Those guys in a perfect scenario would probably slot into the dh slot 30-40 times over the course of the season.

If you think Morales is capable of playing even remotely close to the amount of games Edwin played at first, you're going to be disappointed. Factor in him playing on turf, and you're going to be really disappointed. The problem isn't Morales' defensive ability as opposed to chances of him hurting himself with after suffering a devastating ankle injury that he has never fully recovered from.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#26 » by EJaggit » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:06 am

90-96.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#27 » by phillipmike » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:38 pm

rarefind wrote:I said he spent weeks over his time here, I did not infer that he spent weeks there consecutively. We have numerous guys that on occasion have been dh'd to keep their bat in the lineup. JD, Tulo, Martin and Bautista. That luxury is now gone, without a doubt. Those guys in a perfect scenario would probably slot into the dh slot 30-40 times over the course of the season.

If you think Morales is capable of playing even remotely close to the amount of games Edwin played at first, you're going to be disappointed. Factor in him playing on turf, and you're going to be really disappointed. The problem isn't Morales' defensive ability as opposed to chances of him hurting himself with after suffering a devastating ankle injury that he has never fully recovered from.


Luxury isnt gone at all. Morales played 1B and even the OF (bad manager's decision because he isnt an OF) when they called on him - just wasnt needed to play the field that much with Hosmer being so healthy. I dont see why he couldnt do it again if they team needed him at 1B for a short period of time. For the most part Edwin was a DH to start the season because the Jays ran with Colabello and Smoak. Those guys were awful so they moved Edwin to 1B to keep Smoak's bat out of the lineup in the 2nd half. Out of the last 40 games in the regular season Smoak started 9 games.

Morales injured his leg almost 7 years ago and had his ankle setback almost 6 years ago. Since then he played 852 innings at 1B without any significant time on the DL regarding his leg/ankle. He can easily play 1B if needed plus i doubt there is any concern of his leg/ankle acting up if Yost put him in the OF in 2016 - he has to be pretty healthy for a manager to put him in the OF. May not be an issue either because Pearce could play 1B and the DH can still go to whoever (Tulo, Martin, Bautista or JD) with Morales coming off the bench something he did all last 6 times with Perez being the DH and when he played 1B 7 times it was to give Hosmer a night off to DH.

Morales is never going to play as many games at 1B as Edwin because it wont be needed of him. You just need him capable of filling in if the time comes and he is fully capable of doing that. Unlike last year Edwin was called upon to play the field in 2016 because they wanted Smoak's bat out of the lineup. With Pearce playing 1B it is unlikley for Morales to ever play as many games at 1B as Edwin did in 2016.

When the Jays had a capable bat in 2015 at 1B in Colabello, Edwin was the DH. When they didnt in Smoak and Colabello in 2016, Edwin played 1B. In a perfect world Edwin is your DH and playing spot duty at 1B same scenario with Morales.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#28 » by rarefind » Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:29 am

rarefind wrote:
phillipmike wrote:Donaldson didnt spend "weeks" in the DH spot at any point in his career.

In 2016 he spent a total of 19 games in the DH spot and it was never more than 3 games in a row all season. 5 games in April, none in May, 4 in June, 6 in July, 2 in August and 2 in September.

In 2015 he spent 7 games in the DH spot and there were no back to backs. 2 in April, 3 in June and 1 each in August and September.

Can go back to 2014 with Oakland and he only spent 9 games in the DH spot and only 2 in 2013.

If Donaldson is only going to need 10-15 games in the DH spot then they would have no problem playing Morales in the field as he played 7 games at 1B in 2016 and 9 in 2015 with a UZR/150 of +3 similar to Edwin's +3.5 in 2016. Jays will be fine with Morales at 1B for a short period of time. Morales isnt that big of a downgrade defensively from Edwin if he is needed in spot duty - now if you want to play Morales for a long period of time then you might get negative results as he hasnt played 1B for a long period of time since 2014 and that is more because the Royals had a healthy Hosmer playing 1B the last two seasons.

The problem shouldnt be Morales, he can play 1B if need be. Even if Morales couldnt play 1B and JD needs a rest in the DH spot then the Jays will give it to him over Morales because JD is a better hitter than Morales. But Morales can play 1B if need be, he has a similar flexibility to Edwin DH who can play 1B if needed.

Your normal configuration will 3B: Donaldson, 1B: Pearce and DH: Morales.

If JD needs to DH then it will be 3B: Barney, 1B: Morales and DH: Donaldson. The exact same as 2016 when Edwin was here. So it comes down to Barney vs Pearce in the lineup or Barney vs Upton/Carrera if Pearce is ready to play LF NOT Morales vs JD. Morales being a issue from a defensive standpoint in 2017 is over blown.


I said he spent weeks over his time here, I did not infer that he spent weeks there consecutively. We have numerous guys that on occasion have been dh'd to keep their bat in the lineup. JD, Tulo, Martin and Bautista. That luxury is now gone, without a doubt. Those guys in a perfect scenario would probably slot into the dh slot 30-40 times over the course of the season.

If you think Morales is capable of playing even remotely close to the amount of games Edwin played at first, you're going to be disappointed. Factor in him playing on turf, and you're going to be really disappointed. The problem isn't Morales' defensive ability as opposed to chances of him hurting himself with after suffering a devastating ankle injury that he has never fully recovered from.


Yes, I am well aware of what Morales did in KC last year. The Jays have committed 3 years to him, he was signed to DH. I am not sure why you keep overlooking my point. Morales may be able to play some first base and I am sure he will. You will not see him there for multiple games in a row. The DH spot has been divvied out multiple games in a row when guys are banged up. I am not sure what the disconnect is on that point. If a player is slightly banged up they will have to sit or play in lieu of Morales being in the lineup since he won't be playing in the field with frequency. There is definitely negative value associated with having to sit a guy when he is slightly hurt but capable of hitting or benching Morales to keep the injured player in the lineup. Morales will in all likelihood play less than 10 games in the field next year and be off his feet in the later innings. That means obviously that for the remaining 95% of the season the DH spot will be spoken for. I place the over of how many games JD, Bautista and Tulo could be dh'd to keep them fresh as greater than that number.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#29 » by phillipmike » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:15 pm

rarefind wrote:Yes, I am well aware of what Morales did in KC last year. The Jays have committed 3 years to him, he was signed to DH. I am not sure why you keep overlooking my point. Morales may be able to play some first base and I am sure he will. You will not see him there for multiple games in a row. The DH spot has been divvied out multiple games in a row when guys are banged up. I am not sure what the disconnect is on that point. If a player is slightly banged up they will have to sit or play in lieu of Morales being in the lineup since he won't be playing in the field with frequency. There is definitely negative value associated with having to sit a guy when he is slightly hurt but capable of hitting or benching Morales to keep the injured player in the lineup. Morales will in all likelihood play less than 10 games in the field next year and be off his feet in the later innings. That means obviously that for the remaining 95% of the season the DH spot will be spoken for. I place the over of how many games JD, Bautista and Tulo could be dh'd to keep them fresh as greater than that number.


I agree you likely wouldnt be seeing him multiple games in a row but that is more because the team has Smoak and Pearce to play the field vs a suspended Colabello and a bad Smoak last year; so moving Edwin to 1B was the only option. If Morales has a clear bat over Smoak and Pearce this season then he would be playing 1B for sure if someone needs to DH. Morales played more than enough 1B before he went to KC. He didnt see a lot of time at 1B with KC because they had Hosmer playing 1B who had a very similar bat and the Royals didnt have guys banged up to need Morales to move into the field frequently enough. And when Morales did play the field it was to give guys like Perez, Cain, Zobrist, and Gordon a break and if they needed more of a break then i am sure Morales could have provided it by playing 1B but it wasnt needed due to health and Hosmer at 1B. Morales consistently played 200IP plus at 1B for the Mariners, Twins and Angels because he was needed. He wasnt needed in KC whereas Edwin was needed to play 1B for the Jays.

All i am saying is that it is unfair to spin that signing Morales is a negative impact on the club because he is a DH vs what EE could bring when it isnt all that different. EE was a DH and moved into the field in 2015 to give guys a break and give Navarro at bats at DH. In 2015, once the Jays acquired Revere then Colabello was moved to 1B and EE back to DH. In 2016 there was no Colabello or an effective Smoak so Edwin played 1B and they cycled through injured players (usually Bautista) at the DH spot. Gibby will always play the best bats in the lineup at all times if he is forced to as he had Colabello in LF and Navarro at DH in 2015 and Bautista and Saunders playing the corner OF when they clearly were bad fielders. It shouldnt be any different if Bautista, JD, Martin or others need to DH.

Signing Morales shouldnt give the Jays less flexibility in the field over EE at all as Edwin was a DH who could play 1B - Morales is the same, a DH who can play 1B. Difference is the Jays had a need for EE to play 1B and the Royals didnt have a need to play Morales at 1B. EE is the better fielder but with more games at 1B Morales can easily play a good 1B for as many games as the Jays needs him to play.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#30 » by James_Raptors » Wed Feb 15, 2017 5:31 pm

I'm not going to speculate about injuries, breakthrough players, or those who fall off their norm. Those scenarios can be difficult (or impossible) to predict and obviously they factor into wins and losses. I think it will be very hard for our starting pitching to sustain their production last year. It felt like a magical year from our staff. On paper some would say our offense looks weaker. I think we will score in a more diverse fashion that we did in 2016, in a variety of circumstances where we may have relied on the long ball. The division is in Boston's hands, that much is clear. They won 93 last season and this go around they'll likely be closer to 95-100 win range. We had a winning record against the Red Sox last year, don't expect that to continue.

In 2016 the Blue Jays were 89-73. In 2017 I predict Toronto to be in the 85-77 range (give or take a game or two)
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#31 » by Raps_Swingman » Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:53 pm

Too early for projections IMO. Roster and positions still need to take shape. I'm aware this is a piss ass type of response to a projections thread, but I don't care. See you in March
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#32 » by Kinger95 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:53 pm

80-82.

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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#33 » by EJaggit » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:35 pm

Realistically, am I the only one here that thinks we can make it back to the ALCS for the third consecutive year? I don't think it's far fetched... I'm quite sure we won't win the AL East but it isn't impossible, same rotation with Stro and Sanchez getting better- hopefully we can do this.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#34 » by wamco » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:15 pm

Opening day payroll should have been a bit higher. Should have swung a deal for a lf.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#35 » by Schad » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:10 am

Opening Day payroll will exceed $160m, a jump of about $25m over the previous season. Did anyone seriously expect it to be substantially more? In terms of spending on the roster, we're in pretty close striking distance with all but the Tigers and Dodgers. The only thing creating real payroll separation between us and the Red Sox and Yankees is that they have tens of millions in dead money; we're off by $10m or thereabouts of each otherwise.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#36 » by bluerap23 » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:07 pm

I think there is a good chance we add 10 in payroll by the deadline. We need one more bat to really compete. I have been impressed with how Shatkins have filled out the roster. The bullpen looks half decent. The bottom third of the lineup though...
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#37 » by RapsFanInVA » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:17 pm

I think we're due for a lucky season in one-run games to outperform our projections by 5 wins and make a WC
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#38 » by wamco » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:37 pm

Schad wrote:Opening Day payroll will exceed $160m, a jump of about $25m over the previous season. Did anyone seriously expect it to be substantially more? In terms of spending on the roster, we're in pretty close striking distance with all but the Tigers and Dodgers. The only thing creating real payroll separation between us and the Red Sox and Yankees is that they have tens of millions in dead money; we're off by $10m or thereabouts of each otherwise.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#39 » by wamco » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:38 pm

Schad wrote:Opening Day payroll will exceed $160m, a jump of about $25m over the previous season. Did anyone seriously expect it to be substantially more? In terms of spending on the roster, we're in pretty close striking distance with all but the Tigers and Dodgers. The only thing creating real payroll separation between us and the Red Sox and Yankees is that they have tens of millions in dead money; we're off by $10m or thereabouts of each otherwise.



Per cots we spent 164m last year so I thought it would be up higher now than where it is.
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Re: Media projections for 2017 (and your predictions, too) 

Post#40 » by Schad » Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:51 pm

wamco wrote:
Schad wrote:Opening Day payroll will exceed $160m, a jump of about $25m over the previous season. Did anyone seriously expect it to be substantially more? In terms of spending on the roster, we're in pretty close striking distance with all but the Tigers and Dodgers. The only thing creating real payroll separation between us and the Red Sox and Yankees is that they have tens of millions in dead money; we're off by $10m or thereabouts of each otherwise.



Per cots we spent 164m last year so I thought it would be up higher now than where it is.


That was the net salaries of the players on our 40-man at the end of the year, which is a bit different than what we actually spent; remember, we brought in guys at the deadline with substantial salaries, but only paid out the prorated portion of their contracts. Feldman and Liriano represent about $22m of that, but as we only had them rostered for a shade over one-third of the season, we paid them less than $8m.

Our estimated payroll (ie., what we actually paid out over the course of the season) was $152m:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-expected-big-league-payroll-2017/

Remember also that Rogers does not increase budgets midseason, a lesson that Anthopolous learned in the harshest of ways in 2014. Consequently, what we are spending now is probably a few mil short of our total budget, so we have enough wiggle room to make moves as the season progresses. From the numbers it actually looks like less of a cushion has been left than AA had in 2015 (when we added half of baseball, including Price) and Shapiro/Atkins had in 2016.
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