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538 Article: A new stat for closers, the Goose Egg

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538 Article: A new stat for closers, the Goose Egg 

Post#1 » by dagger » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:54 pm

538 has invented a new stat to better measure the contribution of your best short-term relievers. The argument is that the one-inning save concept - keeping your best short reliever to handle ninth-inning situations that often generate more saves rather than wins is a bad idea and the save stat can be misleading and causes managers to mis-use their best short-term arms (Buck Showalter, I'm thinking of you). Better to use your best short term reliever in the seventh or eighth inning if the game is on the line, rather than hold him out for the ninth when he might have a two run or three run lead to protect.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/

Osuna looks rather good under this system, too.
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Re: 538 Article: A new stat for closers, the Goose Egg 

Post#2 » by ldnk » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:36 pm

along those lines is a top of the ninth save worth less than a bottom of the ninth? In the top of the ninth a blown save your team still has a chance to come back tie and or win the game or ice in the bottom of the ninth that's the last chance. Should we be evaluating that more?

Otherwise I completely agree with the sentiment that we should really be using the best reliever in the highest leverage situations
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Re: 538 Article: A new stat for closers, the Goose Egg 

Post#3 » by Skin Blues » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:50 pm

I don't know why they don't just use WPA if that's the benchmark they're measuring Goose Eggs against. Nobody is calculating this stuff on a napkin, it's all done using databases and spreadsheets. I guess it's easier for a layman to understand and buy into. Fangraphs also lists shutdowns and meltdowns for relief pitchers.
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Re: 538 Article: A new stat for closers, the Goose Egg 

Post#4 » by Schad » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:25 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I don't know why they don't just use WPA if that's the benchmark they're measuring Goose Eggs against. Nobody is calculating this stuff on a napkin, it's all done using databases and spreadsheets. I guess it's easier for a layman to understand and buy into. Fangraphs also lists shutdowns and meltdowns for relief pitchers.


Seems like it's actually more geared toward teams. Increasingly it feels like the biggest reason that teams play to saves is that, for relievers, saves are the biggest stat in terms of getting paid equitably, especially through arbitration, and as a result pitchers push back against the idea of being a 'relief ace'. As it's been difficult getting the arbitrators to consider something as arcane as WAR, WPA might be a near-impossible sell. But something they can count could gain traction.
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