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ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over

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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#21 » by Schad » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:13 pm

Mak wrote:I don't know about Osuna long term. His fastball is so flat and his location is not so great. I would trade him no problem.

When is it officially over? will it be over if we are 8 and 26 in another 17 games? Too bad teams cant trade draft picks, though I guess prospects are more valuable anyways.


There are a few picks that can be traded: the competitive balance picks. Baltimore and Houston own the 74th and 75th picks in the draft, worth a little more than $750k apiece in bonus money. Given that Houston is likely going to be highly competitive, and they own extra picks thanks to the Cards' foray into hacking, they'd probably be willing to dangle that as trade bait.

The draft's timing is the biggest impediment: it'd have to be a pretty early season trade to get it done prior to the draft. Unless their bullpen imploded and they needed a good reliever (like Joe Smith) in the worst way it's hard to imagine they'd be dealing in mid-to-late May.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#22 » by Yosemite Dan » Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:22 pm

vaff87 wrote:
Natural11 wrote:
vaff87 wrote:Also, what about Osuna? I'm guessing they would consider trading him. He's probably pretty valuable, and bad teams don't need good closers. :lol:


What's the point in trading a very good 21 year old for prospect(s)? He is a prospect, and a cheap one. Lol

If this ship sinks, the old guys need to go.


Because bad teams don't need elite closers, and he would bring in a ton in a trade. I like him, but he would bring more value in a trade.


We could get something for him but not as much as you think. Closers aren't a revered as they used to be as it seems the role of closer is not clearly defined anymore. Considering he hasn't been doing it that long, I don't know that he's considered an elite closer by other teams where they would give us a boatload of picks for him. We would be better off keeping him and converting him to a starter. If that was successful then a Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna trifecta would be pretty formidable for years to come. The vast majority of relievers are failed starters, Osuna just hasn't been given a chance in that role but could excel.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#23 » by Skin Blues » Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:48 pm

Yosemite Dan wrote:
vaff87 wrote:
Natural11 wrote:
What's the point in trading a very good 21 year old for prospect(s)? He is a prospect, and a cheap one. Lol

If this ship sinks, the old guys need to go.


Because bad teams don't need elite closers, and he would bring in a ton in a trade. I like him, but he would bring more value in a trade.


We could get something for him but not as much as you think. Closers aren't a revered as they used to be as it seems the role of closer is not clearly defined anymore. Considering he hasn't been doing it that long, I don't know that he's considered an elite closer by other teams where they would give us a boatload of picks for him. We would be better off keeping him and converting him to a starter. If that was successful then a Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna trifecta would be pretty formidable for years to come. The vast majority of relievers are failed starters, Osuna just hasn't been given a chance in that role but could excel.

It's a bit late to convert Osuna to a starter. He's already due to make about $6.5M+ as early as next season and it only goes up form there. That's an expensive gamble on a guy being able to perform in a new role and not fail or get injured. Looking at the haul the Yankees got for Chapman/Miller last year (on more expensive contracts with less years of control), we can get a nice return as-is. Teams highly value shut-down relievers these days. The time to convert him to a starter was last year, or this year, as opposed to waiting until he's earned an inflated arb salary from all the saves.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#24 » by -MetA4- » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:26 am

Dear god, give up on this converting Osuna nonsense. 3 straight years in relief after a minor league career in which he barely built up any innings. You're looking at 2 years minimum just to stretch him out (by which point he's a free agent, if it even works). That isn't even counting the obvious: he blew his elbow out while barely pitching any innings and while being babied in the minors, had a shoulder scare late last season, and he was a player that many believed was a reliever due to mechanics even before we rushed him up as one. So many risks, for what payoff? An elite closer is equivalent to a ~#3 starter. Assuming all goes well and his arm doesn't implode, is there even a guarantee that Osuna is better than a #3 as a starter?

This **** isn't happening. Nor is there any precedent as far as I can tell of a pitcher (who has never pitched anywhere near an MLB starter's workload) being converted into a starter after 3 consecutive years as a reliever.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#25 » by tocooks101 » Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:17 pm

North_of_Border wrote:The Season is Over.

I think at this point the Jays should start to test the trade market on their player value. Jays are an old team past their prime. A short rebuild would be the best thing to do now.

I mean the Jays are dangerously close to become the old Phillies from a few years ago. Only difference is that the Jays washed up veterans are not all locked up long term. The worst thing they can do at this point is extend these guys. They should be traded to the highest bidder.



The season is definitely not over, we arnt even though the first month.

The Jays are far from the old Phillies team, we actually have a mid level farm system (according to mlb rankings we are 16th)(the Phillies had the lowest ranked farm system at the time) and as you said we don't have a ton of veterans locked up on terrible contracts.

Furthermore, our core guys on this team are JD, Jose, Martin, Tulo, Storman, Sanchez, Happ, Pillar, Osuna, Travis and Estrada. Half those guys are just coming into their prime and are udner team control, the rest (aside from martin and tulo) are on expiring deals.

Things are bad right now, but the fact that things could be FINE in 2 weeks from now should show you how much of a overreaction post this is.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#26 » by Schad » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:50 pm

tocooks101 wrote:Furthermore, our core guys on this team are JD, Jose, Martin, Tulo, Storman, Sanchez, Happ, Pillar, Osuna, Travis and Estrada. Half those guys are just coming into their prime and are udner team control, the rest (aside from martin and tulo) are on expiring deals.

Things are bad right now, but the fact that things could be FINE in 2 weeks from now should show you how much of a overreaction post this is.


The fact that half of them are expiring is part of the problem, heh. Sanchez, Stroman, Pillar, Osuna and Donaldson (plus Travis) are all due large raises in arbitration...conservatively, their services will cost $25-30m more in 2018 than they did in 2017. We won't have the money to keep the free agents, nor the money to replace them.

As for things being fine, sure: if it turns out that we were actually an elite baseball team masquerading as one of the worst teams in baseball, they'll be fine. But that's pretty much what is necessary at this point.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#27 » by tocooks101 » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:58 pm

Schad wrote:
tocooks101 wrote:Furthermore, our core guys on this team are JD, Jose, Martin, Tulo, Storman, Sanchez, Happ, Pillar, Osuna, Travis and Estrada. Half those guys are just coming into their prime and are udner team control, the rest (aside from martin and tulo) are on expiring deals.

Things are bad right now, but the fact that things could be FINE in 2 weeks from now should show you how much of a overreaction post this is.


The fact that half of them are expiring is part of the problem, heh. Sanchez, Stroman, Pillar, Osuna and Donaldson (plus Travis) are all due large raises in arbitration...conservatively, their services will cost $25-30m more in 2018 than they did in 2017. We won't have the money to keep the free agents, nor the money to replace them.

As for things being fine, sure: if it turns out that we were actually an elite baseball team masquerading as one of the worst teams in baseball, they'll be fine. But that's pretty much what is necessary at this point.


Does anybody really get a huge raise in arbitration? I've never seen it, it definitely wont be in the 25-30mill range more than they make this year. Donaldson is actually already signed, and the rest may see a combined 2-5mill more, which is a little more than they received from 16 to 17.

I am not saying im not concerned, or that everything is fine, but it has to be somewhere in between fine and 'THE SEASON IS OVER" mentality.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#28 » by Schad » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:13 pm

tocooks101 wrote:Does anybody really get a huge raise in arbitration? I've never seen it, it definitely wont be in the 25-30mill range more than they make this year. Donaldson is actually already signed, and the rest may see a combined 2-5mill more, which is a little more than they received from 16 to 17.

I am not saying im not concerned, or that everything is fine, but it has to be somewhere in between fine and 'THE SEASON IS OVER" mentality.


It will absolutely be in the $25-30m range. Right now, all of those players save Stroman and Osuna are making $500,000. Stroman as a Super 2 first-year arbitration player is making $3.4m; Sanchez, as a first year arb player who isn't Super 2 will make more than that, so he alone will see a raise in the $4m range, I'm guessing. Maybe higher. Osuna, as a closer, will probably see similar.

Further, Donaldson is not signed for next year: we signed him to a two-year deal that covered his 2nd and 3rd arbitration years a s Super 2 player...that would be 2016 and 2017. He's arb-eligible for the last time next season, and will make all the money.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#29 » by Skin Blues » Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:29 pm

The arb values are very predictable. Donaldson will probably get a $6M raise. Osuna will probably get between $6M-$7M on his first try, based on the precedent from Papelbon/Rosenthal. Most of our other arb-eligible core players like Stroman, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar, will be getting $3-4M raises. That's over $25M already. So that $18.5M from Bautista coming off the books is already spent, and then some. We'll have some money to work with, since Estrada and Liriano are leaving. But those two also need to be replaced. One or both might come back, but they won't be much cheaper than they are now. If we bring back one of them, and can replace the other one and Bautista internally with SRF and Alford, we may not be much worse off, with a bit of cash to spend.

After 2018 though, something is gonna have to really shake things up if we're gonna compete. We're gonna have to have stumbled on a star or two, a la Bautista/Edwin/Donaldson, to remain competitive, and the prospects will have to have panned out. There are a few roads we can go down, and whether we go into re-build mode in fall 2017, or fall 2018, will become clearer in a couple months. I'd love to keep the gang together for one more run this year and head into 2018 with the same uncertainty, but the past few weeks has kind of made that a long shot.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#30 » by tocooks101 » Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:20 pm

Schad wrote:
tocooks101 wrote:Does anybody really get a huge raise in arbitration? I've never seen it, it definitely wont be in the 25-30mill range more than they make this year. Donaldson is actually already signed, and the rest may see a combined 2-5mill more, which is a little more than they received from 16 to 17.

I am not saying im not concerned, or that everything is fine, but it has to be somewhere in between fine and 'THE SEASON IS OVER" mentality.


It will absolutely be in the $25-30m range. Right now, all of those players save Stroman and Osuna are making $500,000. Stroman as a Super 2 first-year arbitration player is making $3.4m; Sanchez, as a first year arb player who isn't Super 2 will make more than that, so he alone will see a raise in the $4m range, I'm guessing. Maybe higher. Osuna, as a closer, will probably see similar.

Further, Donaldson is not signed for next year: we signed him to a two-year deal that covered his 2nd and 3rd arbitration years a s Super 2 player...that would be 2016 and 2017. He's arb-eligible for the last time next season, and will make all the money.


Yeah you are right about Donaldson, for some reason I though he signed that 2 year deal this offseason but it was last, I think Osuna, Sanchez, Stroman and Travis will see raises on average more in the 2-3million dollar range. Regardless they are ALL still under team control next year which is never a bad thing from a cap standpoint.

The fact that we are having a debate about which road to go down shows how different of a situation we are in than the Phillies, they literally had no options but to rebuild, and their farm system was terrible, and most of their elite guys were over the hill and lost almost all their value. So, back to my original point, we are no where near the same situation the Phillies were in.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#31 » by Skin Blues » Mon May 1, 2017 2:51 pm

Fear not, Jays fans. Aaron Sanchez has reached out to renowned health specialist Noah Syndergaard for advice on treating his finger issue. About the possibility of requiring another DL stint after lasting one inning in his return from the original DL stint, he had this to say:

"I spoke to Syndergaard about his issue, split nail, kind of the same thing. I don't know. I hope not."

So far the "just pitch through it, you wimp" advice has not yielded results but stay tuned because it's bound to get better from here. He just needs to tough it out.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#32 » by Schad » Mon May 1, 2017 4:25 pm

After following Dr Syndergaard's advice to rub some dirt on the affect area, Sanchez will go on the DL with blood poisoning.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#33 » by JaysRule15 » Mon May 1, 2017 5:47 pm

lmao at Dr. Syndergaard. First time I've ever heard of a player refusing a MRI that the team doctor wants him to take. Like what's the benefit of doing that? Your team obviously wants to keep your body in peak condition so you can win games for them. You want to keep your body in peak condition so you can make money. To refuse a MRI and risk pitching through an unknown injury is madness.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#34 » by Schad » Mon May 1, 2017 6:43 pm

In fairness, the Mets training staff is so notoriously incompetent that he might have worried that they'd see a shadow on the MRI and amputate the arm.
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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#35 » by North_of_Border » Tue May 2, 2017 3:04 am

Syndergaard turned down a chance to lock up with the Mets on a multi million long term deal. It would have paid him much more than he gets now but lessened his chances of a mega deal in the future..... Syndergaard bet on himself. But if he gets a major injury now he will miss out on millions..... that's why he refused the MRI... denial and regret

Just ask Ian Desmond.

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Re: ESPN article on the Jays, proclaiming season is already over 

Post#36 » by Schad » Tue May 2, 2017 3:28 am

Syndergaard isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season; even if he has a serious injury, he'll have years to rebuild his value. Think I'd just chalk it up to a young, headstrong person doing what young, headstrong people do. Or idiots like me who never learned that you cannot out-stubborn your own body who don't have the excuse of being 24.
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