Pistons 14/15 Expectations and Record Projection - REDO

epheisey · Post #21 » by **epheisey** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:53 am

Billl wrote:Eh- I think some people are underestimating how bad the east is. We are 2 games out of the playoffs. If we show any improvement, we'll be in the mix.

a .417 winning percentage over 82 games is 34 wins. that's what 8th place currently has.
a .250 winning percentage over 82 games is 20 wins. that's us.

you can't use the "games out" 12 games in.

Billl · Post #22 » by **Billl** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:00 am

epheisey wrote:
Billl wrote:Eh- I think some people are underestimating how bad the east is. We are 2 games out of the playoffs. If we show any improvement, we'll be in the mix.

a .417 winning percentage over 82 games is 34 wins. that's what 8th place currently has.
a .250 winning percentage over 82 games is 20 wins. that's us.

you can't use the "games out" 12 games in.

I can use whatever I want in my guess of how many games will win. It's a friggin guess.

And if I "can't" use 12 games to project, you certainly can't use 12 games and convert the percentage over 82. It NEVER works out that way.

Teams in the east are going to lose a LOT of games. We get to play a lot of eastern teams. We've got 70 games to go to make up 2 in the standings. Will we? Who knows. If I was betting, I'd bet we'll be better as the year goes on.

Manocad · Post #23 » by **Manocad** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 am

You're doing it wrong. What you're doing is saying that they're two games out of the playoffs like they can continue to stay two games out at the rate they're going. Extrapolating the record after 12 games to 82 games is a helluva more accurate than what you're doing because it assumes the team will continue to play the way it has. By that method they'd be 13 games out at the end of the season.

Post #24 » by **Snakebites** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:24 am

Games back is a stat that is less useful the earlier into a season you are. Everyone starts out zero games back from every position.

Poke holes in using our winning percentage now to project all you want. Its not particularly accurate. But using games back to project ANYTHING at this stage is so, so much worse. Nobody is super far out because everyone started at zero and there just haven't been that many games played yet.

epheisey · Post #25 » by **epheisey** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:31 am

Billl wrote:
epheisey wrote:
Billl wrote:Eh- I think some people are underestimating how bad the east is. We are 2 games out of the playoffs. If we show any improvement, we'll be in the mix.

a .417 winning percentage over 82 games is 34 wins. that's what 8th place currently has.
a .250 winning percentage over 82 games is 20 wins. that's us.

you can't use the "games out" 12 games in.

I can use whatever I want in my guess of how many games will win. It's a friggin guess.

And if I "can't" use 12 games to project, you certainly can't use 12 games and convert the percentage over 82. It NEVER works out that way.

Teams in the east are going to lose a LOT of games. We get to play a lot of eastern teams. We've got 70 games to go to make up 2 in the standings. Will we? Who knows. If I was betting, I'd bet we'll be better as the year goes on.

Exactly what Manocad said.

Last time I checked, we're one of those teams in the east that is going to lose a LOT of games.

You can in fact use whatever you want to project their win totals, my apologies if that came across different than I intended. What I mean is that I don't think its a very accurate way of looking at our team's current status in the East.

Warspite · Post #26 » by **Warspite** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:40 am

I staying with 32 wins. However I will say that watching them against the Suns was impressive. The team looks much better than they did when I saw them play the Suns last.

cammac · Post #27 » by **cammac** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:16 am

The Pistons have a had a very easy schedule to start the year and it is true you don't get blown out. I see SVG as a minor problem being both the coach and the GM aren't a idea situation. A coaches mentality is to win and to win now and that's what he should be doing. The GM on the other hand if they are good are strategists in that at times it is better to take a perceived step backwards for the future.

If you look all of SVGs signings were to make the team better immediately rather than a sustainable rebuild. Let me give you a example when Toronto traded Gay I'm sure that Casey was pissed losing his best player for a bunch of scrubs. In the end its was a clever decisive move that changed the teams fortunes at the time the Raptors 6W & 13L and ended up 48W & 34L.

The Pistons have also had a very easy schedule I think about 26th easiest in the league. So you will be facing tougher opponents in the future. Think 36W will be your zenith and it can be much lower.

epheisey · Post #28 » by **epheisey** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:21 am

cammac wrote:The Pistons have a had a very easy schedule to start the year and it is true you don't get blown out. I see SVG as a minor problem being both the coach and the GM aren't a idea situation. A coaches mentality is to win and to win now and that's what he should be doing. The GM on the other hand if they are good are strategists in that at times it is better to take a perceived step backwards for the future.

If you look all of SVGs signings were to make the team better immediately rather than a sustainable rebuild. Let me give you a example when Toronto traded Gay I'm sure that Casey was pissed losing his best player for a bunch of scrubs.

Any respectable coach that the organization hopes to have around long term has tons of input in those decisions. You're taking the coach out of the equation as if they are completely removed from these decisions, which doesn't happen if an organization is run properly.

I personally think all of SVGs signings were made with the future in mind. Only 1 player, Jodie Meeks, was signed beyond 2 years. Caron Butler was signed with a team option second year, but brings a huge locker room and bench presence. Gray is already gone. And Martin is on a 2 year minimum deal. If SVG was intent on making the team better immediately, we would have chased higher priced players seeking longer deals. In hind-sight, even the Meeks deal looks respectable because of the deals other players signed later on.

If you think coaches like Carlisle, Thibs, Brooks, Clifford, Hornacek, Vogel don't sit down at the same table with the GM and discuss moves like this together, than you're missing something. A GM and a coach work hand in hand in building the roster. The difference is, the coach is hands on with players, while the GM interacts with other teams, and handles the administrative side of a teams dealings.

cammac · Post #29 » by **cammac** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:29 am

epheisey wrote:
cammac wrote:The Pistons have a had a very easy schedule to start the year and it is true you don't get blown out. I see SVG as a minor problem being both the coach and the GM aren't a idea situation. A coaches mentality is to win and to win now and that's what he should be doing. The GM on the other hand if they are good are strategists in that at times it is better to take a perceived step backwards for the future.

If you look all of SVGs signings were to make the team better immediately rather than a sustainable rebuild. Let me give you a example when Toronto traded Gay I'm sure that Casey was pissed losing his best player for a bunch of scrubs.

Any respectable coach that the organization hopes to have around long term has tons of input in those decisions. You're taking the coach out of the equation as if they are completely removed from these decisions, which doesn't happen if an organization is run properly.

I personally think all of SVGs signings were made with the future in mind. Only 1 player, Jodie Meeks, was signed beyond 2 years. Caron Butler was signed with a team option second year, but brings a huge locker room and bench presence. Gray is already gone. And Martin is on a 2 year minimum deal. If SVG was intent on making the team better immediately, we would have chased higher priced players seeking longer deals. In hind-sight, even the Meeks deal looks respectable because of the deals other players signed later on.

If you think coaches like Carlisle, Thibs, Brooks, Clifford, Hornacek, Vogel don't sit down at the same table with the GM and discuss moves like this together, than you're missing something. A GM and a coach work hand in hand in building the roster. The difference is, the coach is hands on with players, while the GM interacts with other teams, and handles the administrative side of a teams dealings.

Not missing anything at all its different getting input from a coach on decisions than when a coach is also the GM.

vic · Post #30 » by **vic** » Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:22 pm

honestly its totally up to SVG.
he sees that the offense is bad but the defense is good.
he has to have seen the 5 man lineup numbers with all the statisticians on his staff
he sees that Smith is the same player at least offensively that he's always been.

if he plays Smith less and Jerebko/Butler more at SF, they will win more games.

srt4b · Post #31 » by **srt4b** » Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:00 am

We are on pace to lose 62 games. Should be good for a top 3 pick.

Manocad · Post #32 » by **Manocad** » Mon Dec 1, 2014 5:33 pm

Time to redo the redo. This team is looking like it's on pace for a disaster of a season.

JD43320 · Post #33 » by **JD43320** » Mon Dec 1, 2014 8:06 pm

Manocad wrote:Time to redo the redo. This team is looking like it's on pace for a disaster of a season.

Good! I'd rather have a **** season and land a top 3 pick than have SVG be like Dumars. You know make a bunch of panic moves that do just enough to ensure we win close to 30 games and tie us down long term with bad players that can't be moved (Smith, DNP-CV, Gordon, Jennings).

Manocad · Post #34 » by **Manocad** » Mon Dec 1, 2014 8:34 pm

What I meant actually was redo the record predictions again since the team now looks even worse than even the pessimists expected. But yes, I agree that the season at this point looks like a throw-away.

ImHeisenberg · Post #35 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon Dec 1, 2014 8:57 pm

We're 3-14 right now. If we keep on this projected path, we should end with 15-67.

I'm going to re-calibrate my projection that was way too optimistic of a near .500 finish.

I predict we go 20-62, winning a couple garbage games at the end of the year.

Manocad · Post #36 » by **Manocad** » Mon Dec 1, 2014 9:22 pm

Yeah, I went from 38 wins to 32 wins and am thinking that there's no way in hell this team gets to 32.

Manocad · Post #37 » by **Manocad** » Wed Dec 3, 2014 5:03 am

Soooo...how about those Red Wings?

sfballa13 · Post #38 » by **sfballa13** » Wed Dec 3, 2014 6:16 am

I think the bigger question is whether or not this squad will be the worst Pistons team in franchise history

Lowest wins in franchise history:
- 16 (79-80)
- 20 (93-94)
- 21 (80-81)

1993-1994 was the last season we had Thomas, Laimbeer, and Dumars together
***Also that year we won the lottery and got Grant Hill in the draft

Ironic thing is any of our past 5 coaches that started 3-15 would have been fired.

Spider156 · Post #39 » by **Spider156** » Wed Dec 3, 2014 7:39 am

sfballa13 wrote:I think the bigger question is whether or not this squad will be the worst Pistons team in franchise history

Lowest wins in franchise history:
- 16 (79-80)
- 20 (93-94)
- 21 (80-81)

1993-1994 was the last season we had Thomas, Laimbeer, and Dumars together
***Also that year we won the lottery and got Grant Hill in the draft

Ironic thing is any of our past 5 coaches that started 3-15 would have been fired.

It's Dumars that was ruining the team. It was an extremely mishandled organization.

princeofpalace · Post #40 » by **princeofpalace** » Wed Dec 3, 2014 10:55 am

For Pete's sake, we need to stop blaming Joe D for this. We were 10-10 this time last year under Cheeks, we are 3-15 right now (likely 3-17 in our first 20). SVG choose to hold onto Smith when he could've unloaded him for scraps- thats not on Joe D- thats on SVG. It wasn't Joe D who didn't get us a SF this offseason when we had the cap- it was SVG who choose to sign the very mediocre Augustin/Butler/Martin/Gray. SVG is coaching this dumpster fire and now running the offense through our worst offensive player- thats not on Joe D.

I'm revising my expectations for this season down to 17-23 wins.