2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[Pharmcat]

jeff do you have a "bold prediction" for the draft?

something like people giving up all their picks to move up like ATL last year

[Mike Hunt]

Thanks for answering my last question. Here's another. I'm greedy:

Todd McShay claimed that Fleener ran 4.45 at his pro-day and others had him under and around 4.5. Where is he a lock not to go past, considering the lack of TEs this year?

[Icness]

jeff do you have a "bold prediction" for the draft?

something like people giving up all their picks to move up like ATL last year

Formulating. Gimmie a couple weeks. I'm doing the "What Jeff Would Do" mock this week, then finishing the big board, then I'll do the 32 bold predictions sure to make me look like a prescient jackass.

Two early nuggets:
--I think Oakland will trade back into the top 40.
--I don't think Cleveland will pick at #4 or #22.

Those thoughts are not related.
If you're looking for a team to move up and make a dramatic splash, San Diego really likes a couple of defenders that won't be there at #18. Might not be there at #10.

[Icness]

Thanks for answering my last question. Here's another. I'm greedy:

Todd McShay claimed that Fleener ran 4.45 at his pro-day and others had him under and around 4.5. Where is he a lock not to go past, considering the lack of TEs this year?

The time I saw for Fleener was 4.48, hand-timed.

I did a group mock today (link coming later) and Fleener went #30. That still seems optimistic to me. I don't think he gets beyond about #45. He could go as early as Pittsburgh's pick in the 1st but they have about 15 viable options there. The Giants at #32 present the first real credible option for Fleener to me, what with Beckum out for 2012, Ballard hurt, and Bear Pascoe better at fullback.

I still like Dwayne Allen better. I'd like Orson Charles better too if he wasn't a damned idiot.

[nuke the whales]

I noticed you had the seahawks going OL-OL the first two rounds. Is that because you think they end up resigning/replacing their linebackers in free agency or because there aren't 4-3 LB's worth taking at their spots?

[PhilipNelsonFan]

^It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world anyway...the Seahawks' O-line was largely terrible last year.

Compensatory picks are out!

3, 95: Raiders
4, 128: Vikings
4, 129: Raiders
4, 130: Ravens
4, 131: Giants
4, 132: Packers
4, 133: Packers
4, 134: Vikings
4, 135: Cowboys
5, 168: Raiders
5, 169: Ravens
5, 170: Colts
6, 202: Jets
6, 203: Jets
6, 204: Browns
6, 205: Browns
6, 206: Colts
6, 207: Panthers
7, 240: Steelers
7, 241: Packers
7, 242: Jets
7, 243: Packers
7, 244: Jets
7, 245: Browns
7, 246: Steelers
7, 247: Browns
7, 248: Steelers
7, 249: Falcons
7, 250: Chargers
7, 251: Bills
7, 252: Rams
7, 253: Colts

Raiders, Vikings and Packers fans should feel really good about all this, given the depth of talent this year. Much of the rest of this is pure housekeeping, but compensatory selections are still really valuable.

Any guess on Mr. Irrelevant? I'm gonna go with Presbyterian CB Justin Bethel.

[dunkonu21]

Jeff,

I've been arguing that the Vikings should draft Claiborne for weeks now. have you read this article from local media about how drafting a LT rarely helps a team in wins?
http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 94776.html

Is that article any good or do you disagree?

If they draft Claiborne, I'd be happy with Harrison Smith, Rueben Randle or Mike Adams in the 2nd round.

How do you like Smith and Randle after their positive pro days? Smith is a converted CB that you said you liked and Randle was super fast in w his 40 yard. Who is the safer pick, Stephen Hill or Randle?

[Icness]

Jeff,

I've been arguing that the Vikings should draft Claiborne for weeks now. have you read this article from local media about how drafting a LT rarely helps a team in wins?
http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 94776.html

Is that article any good or do you disagree?

If they draft Claiborne, I'd be happy with Harrison Smith, Rueben Randle or Mike Adams in the 2nd round.

How do you like Smith and Randle after their positive pro days? Smith is a converted CB that you said you liked and Randle was super fast in w his 40 yard. Who is the safer pick, Stephen Hill or Randle?

I agree with the premise of the article but it ignores the very important context of what they could have drafted instead. Use Willie Anderson as an example. Willie was an above-average tackle for a long time, made several Pro Bowls. But the Bengals could have drafted Eddie George or Marvin Harrison or Ray Lewis instead. In that light taking Anderson looks dumb even though he wound up being very good. Or the year earlier when JAX drafted Boselli. He was arguably the best tackle of his era--I prefer Pace but that's debatable, and Roaf and Ogden are there too--but wouldn't Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, or even Kevin Carter or Joey Galloway have made them even better?

I've said it many times--having an elite left tackle is no guarantee of success. In fact it's almost the opposite. The three best tackles in the AFC are Joe Thomas, Jake Long, and D'Brick in that order. Thomas and Long have never made the playoffs and the Jets missed the playoffs in D'Brick's best season last year. If you don't have a great QB then having a great LT is like putting a deluxe security system on a double wide in tornado alley.

Last team with a Pro Bowl LT (not an injury replacement) to even play in the Super Bowl was Matt Light in 2007. Prior to that it was Ogden with the 2000 Ravens and Pace the year before with the Rams.

Pittsburgh won two Super Bowls recently with simply awful LTs. The Giants just won with an average LG, David Diehl, playing LT not very well. Joe Staley is a personal friend of mine but he's nothing more than an average LT for SF. Green Bay just had one of the greatest offensive seasons ever with the carcass of Chad Clifton and the completely overwhelmed Marshall Newhouse playing LT.

I have the Vikings taking Claiborne in the latest mock and I'm sticking to that. Better talent and they need a corner more than they need a LT. I know I'm in the minority on Kalil but I don't see him being an elite prospect. He's more Joe Staley than Joe Thomas. You don't take that at #3 overall. Then again maybe him not being so awesome isn't such a bad thing given everything I've written here...

[Icness]

Re: Hill vs. Randle:
Hill is such a wild card because of the college offense and how little he's actually done. I don't think he's as good as D. Thomas or C. Johnson. I think he has a higher ceiling than Randle, who I see as a decent #2 in the NFL, nothing more.

Harrison Smith is so much like Tom Zbikowksi. It's weird he followed him at ND. Smith is a little bigger and a little better of a tackler, but he ahs the same sort of lateral stiffness and half-second of indecision that have largely relegatd Tommy Z to being a #3 safety or simply adequate starter. And Tommy Z bring value as a return guy and special teamer where he is better than Smith in both capacities.

[studcrackers]

Jeff, I'm sure we both don't think the cowboys go d-line with the 1st 3 picks. Which of the mammoth nose guys you have us taking do you like more. Do you think poe is gonna be a bust? He seems like the biggest. Boom/bust guy in the 1st round (or at least top half)

Also what's the trash with Jenkins falling o the mid 2nd

[Icness]

Jeff, I'm sure we both don't think the cowboys go d-line with the 1st 3 picks. Which of the mammoth nose guys you have us taking do you like more. Do you think poe is gonna be a bust? He seems like the biggest. Boom/bust guy in the 1st round (or at least top half)

Also what's the trash with Jenkins falling o the mid 2nd

Poe isn't a nose, he'll play end. Or rather he should. Ta'Amu is the nose and he's going to be a good one. I wouldn't touch Jared Crick before the 6th round compensatories, he's stiff, straight-linish and lacks lower body strength. And he's coming off injury.

I think whatever team gets Poe needs to have modest expectations for 2012, which is hard because he is a top 15 lock. I don't want to say he'll bust but he is going to be overdrafted based on his current body of work. He's more NFL-ready than Fletcher Cox though and that guy is going top 15 too. Both guys have excellent long-term potential but probably won't do much next year in the manner that Cam Heyward did with PIT last year (10 tackles, 1 sack).

To explain why I put 3 DL guys to DAL--Crick shouldn't have been there, it was supposed to be Markelle Martin but I screwed up the editing. I wouldn't have much of a problem with DAL going Poe-Ta'Amu in the first two. Those two with Ratliff could be very good in 2-3 years. As I said in the piece, they really like Dre Kirkpatrick at #14 but he wasn't there.

[Da Schwab]

I just got around to reading your new mock and first I have to say that you called Doug Martin, "Doug Wilson," so that threw me off for a sec, but you have him going to the Giants to round out the first.

I guess my question is, what separates Martin from a guy like Lamar Miller, or Chris Polk? All are relatively small, boom-boom type running backs. Martin is actually listed an inch smaller than Ahmad Bradshaw, but I know height isn't a major factor when looking for a good back. Martin also played for Boise St., which makes me apprehensive about the level of talent he played while in college, as opposed to Miller and Polk who played in AQ conferences.

[Manhattan Project]

In terms of small school players and division two prospects, how does Adrian Hamilton rank? Recently his name has started buzzing, some really like him as an outside pass rusher.

[Icness]

I just got around to reading your new mock and first I have to say that you called Doug Martin, "Doug Wilson," so that threw me off for a sec, but you have him going to the Giants to round out the first.

I guess my question is, what separates Martin from a guy like Lamar Miller, or Chris Polk? All are relatively small, boom-boom type running backs. Martin is actually listed an inch smaller than Ahmad Bradshaw, but I know height isn't a major factor when looking for a good back. Martin also played for Boise St., which makes me apprehensive about the level of talent he played while in college, as opposed to Miller and Polk who played in AQ conferences.

Martin is a great all-around back. He can catch, he can pick up the blitz, he can run between the tackles, he can break tackles. Great vision, great at setting up blocks. He's not real big or real fast. Ideal #2 back, a guy that can get 12-18 touches a game in a variety of ways.

Miller is much more explosive as a runner. Home run hitter type. Has a wonderful ability to cut at full speed that I love, and he's got a sweet extra gear. Doesn't always find the hole quickly and tends to try and break every run. Sometimes a 2-yard plunge is the better decision than bouncing it out or dancing and he hasn't learned that. And he's a liability in the passing game.

Polk is a toughie for me because I really wanted to like him more than I do. I held him high going into the season after seeing so much of him watching Jake Locker stink it up. He ran bigger in 2010 than 11, if you know what I mean. He's got good patience and vision but his burst is real inconsistent. Sometimes he explodes thru the hole, sometimes he runs as if he is waiting to get hit. Doesn't have a lot of power in his lower body for a bigger guy. Good receiver, smart at it.

I wouldn't worry much about level of competition. It's less a factor with RBs than linemen or pass rushers.

[Icness]

In terms of small school players and division two prospects, how does Adrian Hamilton rank? Recently his name has started buzzing, some really like him as an outside pass rusher.

the Prairie View guy? If people had ever seen him play they wouldn't think he's a draftable NFL talent. He's a pure speed one trick pony in a poor conference with truly terrible line and QB play. He is a 4.6ish guy going against linemen that have no kick step and might not even be able to run a 40. That's obviously an exaggeration but I've seen better play in the D-III ODAC and MIAA than the SWAC. He'll get into a camp as a free agent and he's a good enough all-around athlete to maybe stick on special teams and a year on the practice squad. He has no technique other than running really fast around the edge, though he does flatten and burst nicely and he's got some pop to his hits.

[Manhattan Project]

the Prairie View guy? If people had ever seen him play they wouldn't think he's a draftable NFL talent. He's a pure speed one trick pony in a poor conference with truly terrible line and QB play. He is a 4.6ish guy going against linemen that have no kick step and might not even be able to run a 40. That's obviously an exaggeration but I've seen better play in the D-III ODAC and MIAA than the SWAC. He'll get into a camp as a free agent and he's a good enough all-around athlete to maybe stick on special teams and a year on the practice squad. He has no technique other than running really fast around the edge, though he does flatten and burst nicely and he's got some pop to his hits.

Yeah that's the guy. It's funny when reading about people talking up sixth or seventh round picks, everyone wants to find that sleeper in mock drafts. Ran a 4.84 40, bench pressed 24 times, 30 vertical, 7.06 cone and a broad jump of 9.2. I just found it funny that once his "pro day" results went up someone saw his stats and now I routinely see his name at the end of the mocks.

[Icness]

He's a great athlete but that's it. I totally love the process you described, people with no clue making bold proclamations about players they've never seen.

Small school game tape is tough for me to get and I'm fully NFL credentialed. Youtube videos shot by parents just aren't enough to make a legit opinion, but that doesn't stop some people. I caught a couple of PVAM games on the local (it's just outside Houston) ION station, that's the only way I've seen him aside from Youtube.

[SpeedyG]

Jeff,

I've been arguing that the Vikings should draft Claiborne for weeks now. have you read this article from local media about how drafting a LT rarely helps a team in wins?
http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 94776.html

Is that article any good or do you disagree?

If they draft Claiborne, I'd be happy with Harrison Smith, Rueben Randle or Mike Adams in the 2nd round.

How do you like Smith and Randle after their positive pro days? Smith is a converted CB that you said you liked and Randle was super fast in w his 40 yard. Who is the safer pick, Stephen Hill or Randle?

I agree with the premise of the article but it ignores the very important context of what they could have drafted instead. Use Willie Anderson as an example. Willie was an above-average tackle for a long time, made several Pro Bowls. But the Bengals could have drafted Eddie George or Marvin Harrison or Ray Lewis instead. In that light taking Anderson looks dumb even though he wound up being very good. Or the year earlier when JAX drafted Boselli. He was arguably the best tackle of his era--I prefer Pace but that's debatable, and Roaf and Ogden are there too--but wouldn't Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, or even Kevin Carter or Joey Galloway have made them even better?

Maybe I'm biased, but I'd take Boselli (assuming he stayed healthy the entire time) over Sapp, Brooks, Carter and Galloway hands down. Boselli was the cornerstone of the Jaguars franchise, and there's no way the Jaguars make their playoff run in 96 without Boselli dominating Bruce Smith in Buffalo, same with Denver.

15.5 sacks in 7 seasons with the Jags and equally dominant in the running game. Like you said, many considered him the 2nd best tackle next to Munoz had he stayed healthy. That's high claim, and definitely HOF material. Brooks would be the only one I'd consider, because he makes tons of highlight plays for his position. But still...Boselli year after year went against Blitzburg, McCrary/Baltimore, and Oilers\Titans. And give up only 15.5 sacks while being a dominantly passing team?

That being said, I do agree. I think given current rules that emphasizes no bump n run and quick/precise passing, I think the value of tackles have been de-emphasized a bit. Doesn't help that there's really no elite LTs anymore either.

[Cliff Levingston]

Jeff; do you have any insight into what the Bears are thinking for their draft? There's plenty of talk out there that they'll still go WR in Rd1 despite grabbing Marshall. On the flip side, they were rumored to be after Mario Williams so maybe they're eying DE in the 1st? Thanks.

[Pharmcat]

jeff Im sure this has been asked b4

but what are your thoughts on mel kiper...fan? no fan of him?