2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[PhilipNelsonFan]

What's the TE board look like right now? (Top 12 or so)

[Icness]

What's the TE board look like right now? (Top 12 or so)

Mine is probably a lot different than what you find elsewhere:
1. Dwayne Allen
2. Orson Charles, but the DUI really hurts
3. Chase Ford
4. Ladarius Green
5. Colby Fleener
6. Kevin Koger
6. George Bryan
7. Michael Egnew
8. Deangelo Peterson
9. Cory Harkey
10. Alex Gottlieb
11. Brian Linthicum
12. Brad Smelley

Bryan is an in-line blocker from NCSU with real soft hands but is slower than some tackles.
Koger is a great open field blocker with reliable mitts, sort of a poor man's Jake Ballard
Egnew is of the oversized slow WR mold but he has some potential. Mizzou used him as a quick-hit slot guy quite a bit and I think he can be used better in the NFL
Gottlieb is from William & Mary and had a great game against JMU that probably has too much influence on my opinion.

I'm not a big Fleener guy. I think he's like Kevin Boss, a good #2 TE that just happened to get a lot of prominent opportunity and people mistook him for a #1.

[asdf1223]

Interesting. I guess the Mike Sherman / Ryan Tannehill connection makes some sense in Miami, but top-5 I don't know. I doubt Holmgren would take him at #4. If Minnesota does trade back though, Floyd makes perfect sense, thanks for sharing your top-10.

EDIT: Also, Jeff. I am curious to know your 3-4 OLB rankings and what players might fit well opposite Clay Matthews?

It's a real bad year to need a 3-4 OLB that is a pass rushing guy.
1. Courtney Upshaw
2. Melvin Ingram
huge gap
3. Ronnell Lewis
4. Andre Branch, but he's better as a 4-3 DE
5. Cam Johnson, just don't ask him to cover
gap
6. Chandler Jones but also a better 4-3 DE
7. Josh Kaddu but he's small
8. Nick Perry
nobody else should be sniffed above the 5th round
So many of the OLBs in this draft are light, as in under 240 pounds. Those guys cannot effectively play full time in a 3-4 and won't succeed as pass rushers in that scheme unless the ends are great. And GB does not have even good DE play.
For GB if you don't trade up to get Ingram or Upshaw (and your GM won't) you have to hope Lewis falls in the 2nd.

Surprised to see no Shea McClellin there. He looks and plays like Brooks reed part 2. Was pretty decent in coverage and tested quite well athletically.

[Icness]

I'm not a McClellin fan. He'll go in the 60-80 overall range though. A lot of people came away impressed with him during Senior Bowl week but I had the exact opposite reaction. I saw a man without a position. He'd be next on my list.

[alwayslovetheceltics]

What's the TE board look like right now? (Top 12 or so)

Mine is probably a lot different than what you find elsewhere:
1. Dwayne Allen
2. Orson Charles, but the DUI really hurts
3. Chase Ford
4. Ladarius Green
5. Colby Fleener
6. Kevin Koger
6. George Bryan
7. Michael Egnew
8. Deangelo Peterson
9. Cory Harkey
10. Alex Gottlieb
11. Brian Linthicum
12. Brad Smelley

Bryan is an in-line blocker from NCSU with real soft hands but is slower than some tackles.
Koger is a great open field blocker with reliable mitts, sort of a poor man's Jake Ballard
Egnew is of the oversized slow WR mold but he has some potential. Mizzou used him as a quick-hit slot guy quite a bit and I think he can be used better in the NFL
Gottlieb is from William & Mary and had a great game against JMU that probably has too much influence on my opinion.

I'm not a big Fleener guy. I think he's like Kevin Boss, a good #2 TE that just happened to get a lot of prominent opportunity and people mistook him for a #1.

What are your thoughts on Evan Rodriguez? He's got a little bit of Aaron Hernandez style in him.

[Icness]

I like Rodriguez as a FB/H-back. He's short and slowish for a TE role but he can be a move TE. Lead blocking improved quite a bit as the year progressed. Catches the ball well, knows how to play in space. I know Temple used him in the Hernandez role but he's not close to as fast or as lithe as Hernandez. He's more like David Johnson of the Steelers. I see him going 5th round.

[DocRI]

Dear Jeff,

Please forgive me, but I've got another Lions question for you; I promise this one is more interesting than asking about Alphonso Smith!

I read on one of the Detroit web sites (I forget which) that since long term negotiations with Cliff Avril weren't going well, the Lions and Eagles were discussing a trade of Avril & a late round pick for Asante Samuels & a late round pick. The money is basically a dead-on match assuming the Lions franchise Avril next season as well. My questions are —

1) First and foremost, is there any truth to this rumor? (If not, feel free to skip the rest of these questions ...)
2) Who would be getting the better of the late round pick swap?
3) What do you think about this rumored deal?

My two cents, and please tell me your opinion of my thinking — a lot of this depends on who'll be available when the Lions draft. If there's a pass rusher who falls, they could use the pick to replace Avril and secure a true #1 CB; if there's a CB who falls (like Kirkpatrick or Jenkins), they're better off drafting him and keeping Avril. I know bringing in a high priced, 31-year old like Samuel hasn't exactly been part of the Lions' usual M.O., but they did do it with Vanden Bosch and that has worked pretty darn well.

Thanks as always for your time and all the fun reading, Jeff.

[RiotPunch]

Any concern that Derek Wolfe dropped 15 pounds from the combine to his Pro Day? Also sort of odd that he ran at 295 lbs but only did position drills at 280 lbs... what's your take on him as a 5Tech?

[Icness]

Dear Jeff,

Please forgive me, but I've got another Lions question for you; I promise this one is more interesting than asking about Alphonso Smith!

I read on one of the Detroit web sites (I forget which) that since long term negotiations with Cliff Avril weren't going well, the Lions and Eagles were discussing a trade of Avril & a late round pick for Asante Samuels & a late round pick. The money is basically a dead-on match assuming the Lions franchise Avril next season as well. My questions are —

1) First and foremost, is there any truth to this rumor? (If not, feel free to skip the rest of these questions ...)
2) Who would be getting the better of the late round pick swap?
3) What do you think about this rumored deal?

My two cents, and please tell me your opinion of my thinking — a lot of this depends on who'll be available when the Lions draft. If there's a pass rusher who falls, they could use the pick to replace Avril and secure a true #1 CB; if there's a CB who falls (like Kirkpatrick or Jenkins), they're better off drafting him and keeping Avril. I know bringing in a high priced, 31-year old like Samuel hasn't exactly been part of the Lions' usual M.O., but they did do it with Vanden Bosch and that has worked pretty darn well.

Thanks as always for your time and all the fun reading, Jeff.

ZERO truth to that rumor, it's a concoction by someone reading between some lines that aren't on the same map. The Lions have inquired about Asante Samuel but that is completely independent of anything to do with Cliff Avril. Teams talk to other teams all the time with stuff like "are you interested in moving Player X? If so, what are you looking for?" There is a possibility that the Lions called the Eagles and asked that about Samuel, and Avril was the answer. At that point the Lions would have ended the call.

I was part of such an exchange a couple years ago. I was at a pro day (Notre Dame's IIRC) and the head coach of a team came up and asked Bengals owner Mike Brown (he's also the GM) if he was interested in talking about moving Johnathan Joseph, who was entering a free agent year. Brown said sure, we'll listen but here is the starting point and he named a Pro Bowl RB and a first round pick. The coach said that was too much, what about a 2nd round pick and a young safety? Brown told him for that offer he could have Morgan Trent. The conversation ended.

Not everyone is as big of a jackass as Mike Brown but GMs have those conversations probably 10 times a day during this time of year. I was sitting within earshot of Bill Belichick at the Senior Bowl once and another coach came up to him and asked him what he wanted for Tom Brady. He wasn't kidding. I could have put out a headline "Pats talking about Brady trade" and I wouldn't have been lying, but it completely distorts the reality of the truth. That's what is going on with the Avril-for-Samuel rumor.

The Avril negotiations are not going great but it's far from the point where the Lions just give up. And they can do better than Asante Samuel.

As for Lions draft, they're going to take a corner and a OT early (1st 3 rounds) but it depends on how the draft shakes down which goes where. Look for a developmental #3 QB late too.

[Mike Hunt]

Is it just me or is the Center position the one that translates most accurately from college to the pros? It seems that over the past decade, no position has had a better ratio of hits/misses. Basically, almost all centers picked in the first 2 rounds of the draft have had at least some measure of success (only recent (i.e., past 5 years) ones I can think of that have has issues are the ones that teams moved out of position).

My questions are:
1) Am I the only one who believes this or have you heard others speak of the trend?
2) Can you think of a reason why this has been happening?

An unrelated question:
3) Is this year's Guard class the best you've ever seen (I can't think of a better one - pre-draft)?

[Icness]

Good questions!

Centers are fairly easy to project and they are also easier to peg what kind of system fits best for them. Centers are also almost always the smartest guys on the field and that generally makes them safer to project, less maturity or ego issues or trouble handling more responsibilites. The only C of the past few years that went top 3 rounds and really can't play is Jonathan Luigs. I guess Mike Pollak but he's had back problems that predate the draft and Bill Polian should have known better. Antoine Caldwell hasn't played much but he is now the starting RG for the Texans.

This year's G class is deep but last year was a good one too. Decastro is very good but he's not without some questions. Glenn might be a better RT and his lack fo a true position scares me a bit. The next tier this year, the 2nd-3rd rounders, is where there is tremendous potential this year. Silatolu, Zeitler (could be a C), Washington, Brooks,

[DocRI]

Dear Jeff,

First off, thank you for de-bunking that Avril-for-Samuels rumor; I was hoping it wasn't true!

Are you hearing any chatter about trades at the end of the first round? There are always, ALWAYS deals struck with those late first round picks, as teams who see someone slipping down the board whom they want trade back up to get them. Heck, it's practically a yearly tradition that Belichick trades back and picks up extra picks in future years, and this year he's got two late first rounders to play with! Who do you see as "buyers" and "sellers" with picks, say, #20 through #32 (and whom might the "buyers" be targeting)?

Thanks again as always, Jeff!

[Icness]

Dear Jeff,

First off, thank you for de-bunking that Avril-for-Samuels rumor; I was hoping it wasn't true!

Are you hearing any chatter about trades at the end of the first round? There are always, ALWAYS deals struck with those late first round picks, as teams who see someone slipping down the board whom they want trade back up to get them. Heck, it's practically a yearly tradition that Belichick trades back and picks up extra picks in future years, and this year he's got two late first rounders to play with! Who do you see as "buyers" and "sellers" with picks, say, #20 through #32 (and whom might the "buyers" be targeting)?

Thanks again as always, Jeff!

Mayhew was directly asked about the trade market and said it was disturbingly quiet. The Bengals have let out the same sort of signs that the calls aren't coming like they normally do. It's still a month away and the owners meetings are now on, so activity should pick up.

Here's what like 90% of the calls are right now. Team A calls Team B saying they have interest in their pick if a player they want (and they won't say who) is there, and if Team B is interested in moving it and what it might cost. There is very little trade talk involving current players unless the player in question is a scheme misfit for new coaches or the player played for the other team's coach recently.

The team I was with kept a notebook with all the inquiries both sent and received. Part of what they hired me for was to try and figure out what players the other teams might want.

[Bucksfans1and2]

The RG3>Luck media train is in motion right now. What's the defense for RG3's performance against OK State, a defense that Luck looked great against??

[studcrackers]

part of the problem w/the ok state game is briles isnt the greatest coach. they got inside the red zone alot and then the coach stupidly tried to play smash mouth football when his team (and the rest of the conference sans k-state and texas) is full of finesse.

if i recall they had the ball inside the 5 about 10 times and couldnt run it in (maybe passed once) w/ganaway or whoever the rb was and the game got out of hand fast. i knew they were gonna get blown out against us just like what happened the year prior.

id say a bigger problem would be what happened in the 2nd half vs the aggies

[Icness]

It's more about how this is the time of year where everyone has to pile negatives on the top dog just so they have some quotes of themselves showing some doubt in the off chance he flops. Happens every year, some more than others. Nobody has really challenged the assertion that Luck is awesome, and because the four-letter media loves the drama of a competition they have to fabricate some by simultaneously knocking Luck and fellating RG3.

I happen to love them both just about equally. I think RG3 has a higher ceiling and is more of an attack QB like Rodgers, but Luck is a safe bet to be no worse than Philip Rivers and is better at the take what's given game like Brady. RG3 does have some bust potential that seems conspicuously absent from the talk right now.

[skorff26]

Vikings fan here. Obviously the Vikes have several big holes and could (should) move down and acquire multiple picks, what are the odds that they actually do trade down?
and
Who do you think is most likely to trade up to the #3 spot and what would the Vikes get as compensation?

I personally think it may be Tampa. I think Tampa is trying to compete next year badly and that they really want Claiborne, and with the Vikings maybe interested in Claiborne, I could see them pulling the trigger and moving.

But I was curious as to whether you had heard anything about the #3 pick

[B Mac]

If the Vikes trade down and Kalil is still on the board at 4 when the Browns draft, then they better be on the horn looking to get a kings ransom for that pick.

[Icness]

Vikings fan here. Obviously the Vikes have several big holes and could (should) move down and acquire multiple picks, what are the odds that they actually do trade down?
and
Who do you think is most likely to trade up to the #3 spot and what would the Vikes get as compensation?

I personally think it may be Tampa. I think Tampa is trying to compete next year badly and that they really want Claiborne, and with the Vikings maybe interested in Claiborne, I could see them pulling the trigger and moving.

But I was curious as to whether you had heard anything about the #3 pick

Doesn't look like there will be any more trade movement in the top 6 picks. Cleveland and Tampa are happy where they are. STL would only move up if they can get Kalil and that would be if MIN doesn't take him. If Miami believes someone is going to take Tannehill I could see them moving up to #3 but that seems more unlikely the more Cleveland talks up Colt McCoy and sends vurtually their entire offensive staff to OK State to watch Brandon Weeden (and Blackmon).

Tampa would be very happy with any of Claiborne, Richardson, or Kalil--in that order. They won't need to move to get one.

Where the Vikings can pick up extra picks is at #35. That pick could bag them a #1 in '13 or a swap of 2nds and an extra third this year.

[Icness]

If the Vikes trade down and Kalil is still on the board at 4 when the Browns draft, then they better be on the horn looking to get a kings ransom for that pick.

They might take Kalil themselves and put him at right tackle. Not what I would do but I'm not Tom Heckert.