2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[Icness]

jeff,

there has been some rumors (who knows how serious they are) about some teams moving up to get tannehill since the other two qbs are going 1 and 2. who would likely be the ones to move up and where would they have to go to get him, #3? and will the vikings listen seriously to these trade talks- knowing kalil probably won't be there if they move down

I'll answer this backwards:
One of the most overplayed theories is that the Vikings are locked in on Kalil. Completely untrue speculation. They would love to have him but they love Claiborne just as much. And they really want an impact receiver too.

I'm actually doing a mock right now that has Miami trading up to #3. 8 to 3 is very doable. Seattle moving up is tougher because it changes the picks beyond the swap of #1s quite a bit, from two thirds (see: Marshall trade) and a 2 or 3 next year to a third this year and a 1 next year. Seattle could do that, not sure they would though.

It hinges on where Flynn goes. Miami allegedly lowballed him big-time with their initial meeting, and Seattle didn't even offer a deal. Of course Flynn's fate is tied to Manning, because if Manning doesn't go SF then the Niners are very much in the Flynn game. If Manning goes to SF then Flynn is really stuck, loses all leverage. At that point his best move is probably going back to Green Bay and accepting that nobody sees him as viable starter.

Anyways, that leaves the choice at risking Cleveland takes Tannehill at #4 (they're not even considering Flynn) or settling on Flynn or Chad Henne or Kyle Orton as the way to get a QB if you're Miami or Seattle or KC. Those are the only teams that can credibly need a 1st round QB. Buffalo could be a wild card because they have the luxury of letting him sit. If one of them really loves Tannehill--and they might--then I would expect them to be aggressive and go get him at #3.

FWIW I don't believe the Browns seriously want Tannehill at #4. If they fall back to #6 maybe, and that door is open, but not at #4.

FWIW #2--I would take Tannehill over Cassel or Locker or McCoy or Sanchez or Ponder, with the caveat that he not get rushed onto the field in 2012. If he proves ready then fine, but don't do to Tannehill what JAX did to Gabbert last year. Tannehill is every bit as good as Jay Cutler was when he came out. EVery damn bit as good.

[TSE]

Might want to hold off on that mock for 2 days and see if Miami signs Alex Smith or Matt Flynn.

[HeavyP]

Seattle signing Matt Flynn for 3/19 with 10 guaranteed and incentives that can bring the total up to 26 is a steal for them. I still think they look for a pass-rusher at 12 or try to trade down.

[Icness]

Might want to hold off on that mock for 2 days and see if Miami signs Alex Smith or Matt Flynn.

Yeah it's on hold right now. Smith's status is the holdup. I think he goes to MIA more because I think Miami needs the splash to not get shut out of the action than because Smith feels slighted by SF.

If Smith doesn't sign in MIA I would bet good $$ they trade up to get Tannehill. If he does then I think SF goes after a veteran to hold Kaepernick's hand, maybe Garrard or Josh Johnson.

Current top 10:
Luck
RG3
Tannehill
Blackmon
Kalil
Claiborne
Coples
Floyd
Poe
Kirkpatrick

[RiotPunch]

You really think Tannehill will go top 5? Is that your personal opinion or is there some real information/evidence behind it?

[Icness]

You really think Tannehill will go top 5? Is that your personal opinion or is there some real information/evidence behind it?

Both. I know one NFL team has a higher grade on him than they had on any QB last year including Cam Newton. That kind of talent does not fall far, even with the market not seeming to be great. The fact that Tannehill needs development time might actually play into his favor as far as where he's drafted. It brings teams like KC, BUF, and NYJ that don't immediately need a QB but might in a year or two into play.

[SpeedyG]

You really think Tannehill will go top 5? Is that your personal opinion or is there some real information/evidence behind it?

Both. I know one NFL team has a higher grade on him than they had on any QB last year including Cam Newton. That kind of talent does not fall far, even with the market not seeming to be great. The fact that Tannehill needs development time might actually play into his favor as far as where he's drafted. It brings teams like KC, BUF, and NYJ that don't immediately need a QB but might in a year or two into play.

I hope he somehow entices someone to trade up to 7.

[RiotPunch]

Interesting. I guess the Mike Sherman / Ryan Tannehill connection makes some sense in Miami, but top-5 I don't know. I doubt Holmgren would take him at #4. If Minnesota does trade back though, Floyd makes perfect sense, thanks for sharing your top-10.

EDIT: Also, Jeff. I am curious to know your 3-4 OLB rankings and what players might fit well opposite Clay Matthews?

[Roger Murdock]

I've heard rumblings that the Vikings might go Claiborne. Would there be trade down opportunities for the Browns at 4 if Kalil is there?

[Bucksfans1and2]

I've heard rumblings that the Vikings might go Claiborne. Would there be trade down opportunities for the Browns at 4 if Kalil is there?

Do you trust O'Neil Cousins as your RT??

[RiotPunch]

Joe Thomas and Matt Kalil would be stupid good on the same O-Line.

[Sandlot]

Quick Niners question. With the signings of Manningham and Moss what do you think the Niners do in the first round? I'm assuming RG but is there anyone worthy that will be around? Also, do they still need to draft a big target type of WR?

[B Mac]

Joe Thomas and Matt Kalil would be stupid good on the same O-Line.

Add pro-bowler Alex Mack and that would be 3 first round picks on the O-Line. That would also be a ridiculous amount of money invested in the line. Not sure I can see the Browns considering that.

[Icness]

Interesting. I guess the Mike Sherman / Ryan Tannehill connection makes some sense in Miami, but top-5 I don't know. I doubt Holmgren would take him at #4. If Minnesota does trade back though, Floyd makes perfect sense, thanks for sharing your top-10.

EDIT: Also, Jeff. I am curious to know your 3-4 OLB rankings and what players might fit well opposite Clay Matthews?

It's a real bad year to need a 3-4 OLB that is a pass rushing guy.
1. Courtney Upshaw
2. Melvin Ingram
huge gap
3. Ronnell Lewis
4. Andre Branch, but he's better as a 4-3 DE
5. Cam Johnson, just don't ask him to cover
gap
6. Chandler Jones but also a better 4-3 DE
7. Josh Kaddu but he's small
8. Nick Perry
nobody else should be sniffed above the 5th round
So many of the OLBs in this draft are light, as in under 240 pounds. Those guys cannot effectively play full time in a 3-4 and won't succeed as pass rushers in that scheme unless the ends are great. And GB does not have even good DE play.
For GB if you don't trade up to get Ingram or Upshaw (and your GM won't) you have to hope Lewis falls in the 2nd.

[Icness]

Quick Niners question. With the signings of Manningham and Moss what do you think the Niners do in the first round? I'm assuming RG but is there anyone worthy that will be around? Also, do they still need to draft a big target type of WR?

I think they look at guard, corner, or defensive line depth if they don't trade out. I would like to see them get another WR, in part because I think Moss won't last 6 games. Don't see them doing that in the 1st though.

[RiotPunch]

Interesting. I guess the Mike Sherman / Ryan Tannehill connection makes some sense in Miami, but top-5 I don't know. I doubt Holmgren would take him at #4. If Minnesota does trade back though, Floyd makes perfect sense, thanks for sharing your top-10.

EDIT: Also, Jeff. I am curious to know your 3-4 OLB rankings and what players might fit well opposite Clay Matthews?

It's a real bad year to need a 3-4 OLB that is a pass rushing guy.
1. Courtney Upshaw
2. Melvin Ingram
huge gap
3. Ronnell Lewis
4. Andre Branch, but he's better as a 4-3 DE
5. Cam Johnson, just don't ask him to cover
gap
6. Chandler Jones but also a better 4-3 DE
7. Josh Kaddu but he's small
8. Nick Perry
nobody else should be sniffed above the 5th round
So many of the OLBs in this draft are light, as in under 240 pounds. Those guys cannot effectively play full time in a 3-4 and won't succeed as pass rushers in that scheme unless the ends are great. And GB does not have even good DE play.
For GB if you don't trade up to get Ingram or Upshaw (and your GM won't) you have to hope Lewis falls in the 2nd.

I understand that you hate Nick Perry, but Kaddu, Jones and Johnson ahead of him? How are so confident he is going to bust? I certainly like Ingram, Upshaw and Branch more than him, just curious why he is a surefire Gholston 2.0 in your eyes.

Where are you betting Ingram and Upshaw will go in the draft? I agree Ted won't do a big trade-up, but if one of those two makes it to the 20-24 pick range, I could see him jumping up to get one of them.

[Icness]

On Perry--he was coached at USC by Monte Kiffin, one of the best NFL defensive coordinators ever. So it says a lot to me that a coach like Kiffin was reluctant to play Perry full time when his other options weren't all that special. He's straight line fast but he's not quick and not very flexible. He actually reminds me more of Everette Brown than Gholston because Gholston was bulkier and a little more instinctive. Perry is faster and a little better at flowing around.

Kaddu is probably too light to play 3-4 OLB, but his speed and quickness are well advanced beyond Perry. Jones has real nice explosion and the ability to shed blocks and finish, which is Perry's biggest problem. He's not real instinctive and I wouldn't want him out in space too much. Johnson has some 3-4 OLB experience and he's a different kind of pass rusher, he's a perimeter power guy. I would like a guy with those skills opposite Clay so you could swap them around and keep tight ends off Clay. I'm higher on Johnson than most people.

I still think Perry is a top 50 pick and he's not without hope because he has some ability and isn't a knucklehead. Doubt he falls to GB in the 2nd.

Ingram will be long gone, he's a top 15 pick. Could be top 10. Upshaw might be around in the 20s if there's a run on OL, hard to say. 30 is a real stretch though.

If you're looking for a later-round guy, check out Sammy Brown from Houston. He's only 244 pounds but played ROLB in a 3-4 and he has a real good football IQ. Big hitter too. Probably a 5th-6th rounder.

[RiotPunch]

On Perry--he was coached at USC by Monte Kiffin, one of the best NFL defensive coordinators ever. So it says a lot to me that a coach like Kiffin was reluctant to play Perry full time when his other options weren't all that special. He's straight line fast but he's not quick and not very flexible. He actually reminds me more of Everette Brown than Gholston because Gholston was bulkier and a little more instinctive. Perry is faster and a little better at flowing around.

Kaddu is probably too light to play 3-4 OLB, but his speed and quickness are well advanced beyond Perry. Jones has real nice explosion and the ability to shed blocks and finish, which is Perry's biggest problem. He's not real instinctive and I wouldn't want him out in space too much. Johnson has some 3-4 OLB experience and he's a different kind of pass rusher, he's a perimeter power guy. I would like a guy with those skills opposite Clay so you could swap them around and keep tight ends off Clay. I'm higher on Johnson than most people.

I still think Perry is a top 50 pick and he's not without hope because he has some ability and isn't a knucklehead. Doubt he falls to GB in the 2nd.

Ingram will be long gone, he's a top 15 pick. Could be top 10. Upshaw might be around in the 20s if there's a run on OL, hard to say. 30 is a real stretch though.

If you're looking for a later-round guy, check out Sammy Brown from Houston. He's only 244 pounds but played ROLB in a 3-4 and he has a real good football IQ. Big hitter too. Probably a 5th-6th rounder.

Thanks for the input. I haven't been high on Perry as a 3-4 backer, and after reading that I really want to stay away. I think a guy like Upshaw would be perfect opposite Clay. Sort of a "power-pig". Cam Johnson sort of fits that mold but him in coverage would be LOL wouldn't it? I guess Upshaw wouldn't be much better though...

Sammy Brown is commonplace as the Packers 6th round pick in many of the mocks that I do over on FootballsFuture.com. He is on hell of a football player. Another guy I like as a developmental type is Delano Johnson out of Bowie State.

Here's to hoping the Pack walks away with one of Upshaw or Still in the 1st.

Also, what's your take on Coty Sensabaugh? Seems to fit all of Ted Thompson's CB requirements...

[Icness]

I forgot to put Vinny Curry in there. if Johnson can do it Curry can do it, slot him right there. He is my current 2nd round pick for GB in the latest mock, which should be up tomorrow.

You will have to fight the Ravens for Johnson. Ozzie Newsome loves him some HBCU players and this one plays in his backyard. They have essentially the same needs as GB, kinda strange.

Believe it or not I was actually watching some Clemson today, more to see Branch and Thompson but Sensabaugh had himself a nice game against VT. He can press and he tries to intercept every ball so that certainly fits the Capers profile.

[Bucksfans1and2]

Perry's a weird one.

He totally changed his body in the draft season.

His game was getting the edge at USC, but his new body makes you think he'd be better as a power rusher.

I like him. I don't think he'll be dominant right away, you've got to rework his game to his new body, but I think he can be a star.

I think in his first year, he can play a role. The ROLB role in Capers' 2-4-5 would be perfect for him right away. He can push the pocket right away IMO, he just won't be the 12 sack guy he can be in a few years.

If he's sitting there at 40, I'm trading up real quick. If Konz isn't on the board at 28, I hope he's the pick.