2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[Pharmcat]

jeff when you evaluate a prospect, what do you put the MOST focus on?

wonderlic?
combine results?
"gut" feeling?
college stats?
other?

to me it seems like some players tend to get draft higher than they should b/c they put on a show a@ the combine

[Icness]

Can you ever recall a guy whose stock has risen so much based off of his Combine performance like Dontari Poe's?

I can't help but think this guy will be a bust, even though I'd really like to see him succeed.

I'll give you one from this year: Josh Robinson


Robinson is a 4th round prospect at best until he tears up Indy, now he could possibly go as high as #30. Game tape is not kind to his skills. He's not awful but he needs a lot of work with his technique. What he showed in Indy is that he has the athletic ability to work with.

Mamula was a late 1st that propelled himself upward. Poe is probably in that boat. He was in the 18-25 range. Tyson Jackson is another guy that fits that bill even though his Combine wasn't great.

If you go back a little beyond Mamula, the Browns got all giddy over Mike Junkin back in 1987 after he had a great Combine and interview. "Mad Dog in a Meat Market" was what they said about him even though he was a largely unspectacular player at Duke. I was in HS then so I don't really recall just how far up he raised himself but I don't ever remember having heard of him before the Combine that year. Still trying to recall how the 12-4 Browns that made the AFC title game wound up with the #5 overall pick in that draft too...

[Icness]

jeff when you evaluate a prospect, what do you put the MOST focus on?

wonderlic?
combine results?
"gut" feeling?
college stats?
other?

to me it seems like some players tend to get draft higher than they should b/c they put on a show a@ the combine

First thing I look at is game film against other potential NFL comeptition. I look for requisite athletic traits for the position and how well refined the technique is. That is the most important.

College stats are almost meaningless except for three: completion percentage and yards per attempt for QBs, tackles for loss that aren't sacks by defensive front players, and YAC for receivers. Yards by QBs and RBs are as valuable as the sweaty socks I just peeled off after four games of pickup hoops.

The Combine is valuable for apples/apples comparisons. All-star games (esp Senior Bowl) are even better because you get actual mano a mano competition and also get to see the competitiveness. I look closely at 10-yard splits for RB/WR/DB/pass rushers, vertical and broad jumps as a measure of overall athleticism, and attributes that really stand out like really long or really short arms, big or small hands, really high Wonderlic scores for QBs, ILBs, and interior OL. The closer to the snap of the ball a player is, the more a Wonderlic matters. I don't really even need my WRs or CBs to be literate as long as they understand how to play and follow directions.

There is some gut involved but the Combine and workouts help provide a gut check. As an example, a few years back I was a very big advocate for Aaron Rouse. I loved his size and speed but I also just felt real good about him coming from a school I knew very well (VT) and I sort of mentally cherry-picked his great games. He was pretty average at Senior Bowl week and that tipped me off that maybe I needed to re-evaluate. He looked a little stiff and uncomfortable at the Combine too. I still wound up being way too high on him but I had at least spared myself some embarrassment by dropping him out of my first round. IIRC he went in the late 3rd to Green Bay. He was most recently the MVP of the UFL championship game and is still trying to get back into the NFL.

[Pax for Prez]

Can you ever recall a guy whose stock has risen so much based off of his Combine performance like Dontari Poe's?

I can't help but think this guy will be a bust, even though I'd really like to see him succeed.

I'll give you one from this year: Josh Robinson


Robinson is a 4th round prospect at best until he tears up Indy, now he could possibly go as high as #30. Game tape is not kind to his skills. He's not awful but he needs a lot of work with his technique. What he showed in Indy is that he has the athletic ability to work with.

Mamula was a late 1st that propelled himself upward. Poe is probably in that boat. He was in the 18-25 range. Tyson Jackson is another guy that fits that bill even though his Combine wasn't great.

If you go back a little beyond Mamula, the Browns got all giddy over Mike Junkin back in 1987 after he had a great Combine and interview. "Mad Dog in a Meat Market" was what they said about him even though he was a largely unspectacular player at Duke. I was in HS then so I don't really recall just how far up he raised himself but I don't ever remember having heard of him before the Combine that year. Still trying to recall how the 12-4 Browns that made the AFC title game wound up with the #5 overall pick in that draft too...

Browns traded LB Chip Banks to the Chargers for the draft pick to select Mike Junkins (that was my 1st draft ... )

Pax

[Icness]

Thanks for the reminder, forgot all about that. Makes the Junkin pick seem even worse, though IIRC Banks fell off pretty dramatically other than one rebound year with the Colts.

[Manhattan Project]

Jeff, when can we see the 2012 defensive player rankings like the offensive?

[Icness]

Jeff, when can we the 2012 defensive player rankings like the offensive?

Ratings are done, doing the writing part. Should be posted Sunday night/Mon morn. I'm tied up most of the next three days.

[BearTooth]

First thing I look at is game film against other potential NFL comeptition. I look for requisite athletic traits for the position and how well refined the technique is. That is the most important.

With this in mind, I'm curious why Mike Adams doesn't compare better to Matt Kalil. Adams faced Kerrigan, Clayborn, Heyward, Watt, Mercilus and played fairly well against all but Kerrigan. Then faced Upshaw and Ingram in the Senior Bowl and, from my perspective, shut them down. I'm not sure if anyone Kalil faced in the Pac 10 is as good as the worst of those guys.

Now, refined technique is what Kalil is all about, but still, why do you think Mike Adams is still rated as a 2nd rounder by so many.

[Pharmcat]

jeff when you evaluate a prospect, what do you put the MOST focus on?

wonderlic?
combine results?
"gut" feeling?
college stats?
other?

to me it seems like some players tend to get draft higher than they should b/c they put on a show a@ the combine

First thing I look at is game film against other potential NFL comeptition. I look for requisite athletic traits for the position and how well refined the technique is. That is the most important.

College stats are almost meaningless except for three: completion percentage and yards per attempt for QBs, tackles for loss that aren't sacks by defensive front players, and YAC for receivers. Yards by QBs and RBs are as valuable as the sweaty socks I just peeled off after four games of pickup hoops.

The Combine is valuable for apples/apples comparisons. All-star games (esp Senior Bowl) are even better because you get actual mano a mano competition and also get to see the competitiveness. I look closely at 10-yard splits for RB/WR/DB/pass rushers, vertical and broad jumps as a measure of overall athleticism, and attributes that really stand out like really long or really short arms, big or small hands, really high Wonderlic scores for QBs, ILBs, and interior OL. The closer to the snap of the ball a player is, the more a Wonderlic matters. I don't really even need my WRs or CBs to be literate as long as they understand how to play and follow directions.

There is some gut involved but the Combine and workouts help provide a gut check. As an example, a few years back I was a very big advocate for Aaron Rouse. I loved his size and speed but I also just felt real good about him coming from a school I knew very well (VT) and I sort of mentally cherry-picked his great games. He was pretty average at Senior Bowl week and that tipped me off that maybe I needed to re-evaluate. He looked a little stiff and uncomfortable at the Combine too. I still wound up being way too high on him but I had at least spared myself some embarrassment by dropping him out of my first round. IIRC he went in the late 3rd to Green Bay. He was most recently the MVP of the UFL championship game and is still trying to get back into the NFL.

excellent! thank you so much, its great to get a feeling of how prospects are analyzed

[DocRI]

Dear Jeff,

In your opinion, what's Janoris Jenkins' basement on draft night? On one hand, some people say he might actually be better than Claiborne on the field; the other hand, unfortunately, is using the results of a paternity test as the paper to roll a joint. Latest "report" on PFT has him admitting to continued pot use while at North Alabama, and some teams completely removing him from their draft boards. Bottom line, just how far could he fall? From one Lions fan to another, is there any chance he slides all the way to the bottom of the 2nd round at this point?

Thanks as always for all the great work and fun reading.

[Icness]

First thing I look at is game film against other potential NFL comeptition. I look for requisite athletic traits for the position and how well refined the technique is. That is the most important.

With this in mind, I'm curious why Mike Adams doesn't compare better to Matt Kalil. Adams faced Kerrigan, Clayborn, Heyward, Watt, Mercilus and played fairly well against all but Kerrigan. Then faced Upshaw and Ingram in the Senior Bowl and, from my perspective, shut them down. I'm not sure if anyone Kalil faced in the Pac 10 is as good as the worst of those guys.

Now, refined technique is what Kalil is all about, but still, why do you think Mike Adams is still rated as a 2nd rounder by so many.

Adams doesn't always play with passion, and when he's not fired up his technique suffers. He gets his hands wider and isn't as assertive. He has some off-field issues beyond Tattoogate too.

I'm probably lower on Kalil than anyone you can find because I don't think he's going to be Godly. One of the more overhyped prospects in years IMO. I think he's going to be a quality starter but not an elite talent.

[Icness]

Dear Jeff,

In your opinion, what's Janoris Jenkins' basement on draft night? On one hand, some people say he might actually be better than Claiborne on the field; the other hand, unfortunately, is using the results of a paternity test as the paper to roll a joint. Latest "report" on PFT has him admitting to continued pot use while at North Alabama, and some teams completely removing him from their draft boards. Bottom line, just how far could he fall? From one Lions fan to another, is there any chance he slides all the way to the bottom of the 2nd round at this point?

Thanks as always for all the great work and fun reading.

With all the recent pot issues in Detroit I don't see any way they take that chance.

I know people at Florida well; several of my extended family go/went there and all are involved in athletics, and I know some other people with the football program as well. They told me Cam Newton was not going to be a problem and that he grew up after seeing the err of his ways. They told me Hernandez--also with some pot issues coming out of HS--got his act together and matured. Every person at Florida has told me that Janoris Jenkins is bad news, period. He went to UNA instead of declaring for the draft because he wasn't ready to stop smoking pot, and we're not just talking daily usage here, we're talking hourly. I can't speak about his pot usage beyond last summer except for what Jenkins himself has admitted.

I don't see why so many people are surprised about his revelation. He was pretty upfront during Senior Bowl week that he was still "troubled by sh**". The impression I get from talking to people who have spent time with Jenkins is that he has no vision beyond the minute he's living in and doesn't really think he has a long-term future. He's always been able to overcome himself just on natural ability and because people cater to him because he's so freaking talented. That ends in the NFL but he doesn't see that.

He's been dropped by two highly (bad pun, sorry) respected agencies that have good experience helping immature knuckleheads overcome positive drugs tests, DUIs, parades of bastards, arrests for assaults, etc. though not generally all in the same package. They have not pulled any punches in scathing him either, and that's extremely unusual because agents never want to be seen as bitter or petty or unable to handle a client.

I did a mock for nflsfuture.com (link: http://nflsfuture.com/2012/04/13/risdon ... t-edition/) this week and I sent that to a NFL team official to review it. I initially had Jenkins going to the Rams at 39 and the comment back was "no f***ing way". Jenkins is black marked (that team's red flag) by this particluar team. I wound up putting Jenkins to the Patriots with the OAK pick in the 2nd round but I really don't know about that.

The two teams that make the most sense to me are Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Both have serious need, both have strong front offices and locker rooms, both have experience in dealing with highly skilled potheads (BJ Raji, Santonio Holmes). I think they will get that chance in the 2nd round.

[aggo]

umm if he's smoking weed hourly then he's in a permanently altered state of mind so detached from his real persona.

that's kinda scary if i was a team looking to draft him.

[Da Schwab]

I've always been curious about something... How much scouting do teams generally do for kickers and punters?

[Jaruff]

Jeff, I'm reading about the Jags wanting to trade down. How much would it cost Carolina to move up two spots? Not saying that they would but I could see it happening depending on who falls.

I'd assume the Jags would love that deal because they could trade down again from #9 and grab even more picks.

[Bucksfans1and2]

I've heard that ST coaches are the ones that are responsible for scouting their Kickers/Punters/Long Snappers.

[Manhattan Project]

Talks of teams with top ten picks wanting to trade down, is it due diligence or a genuine interest in trading down in terms of depth of this draft?

[Icness]

I've always been curious about something... How much scouting do teams generally do for kickers and punters?

During the season, almost zero. If a scout is at a game and the kicker or punter happens to look real good or is on the watch list, they'll pay attention.

After the season, my experience was that the team identified it needed a new punter one year. They worked out a handful of the top draftable punters, broke down hang times and situational punts (punting from between the 40s and how many of those stuck inside the 20 and the 10). Pro days were big for specialists. They didn't draft one but brought two rookie FAs into camp for a two-day tryout competition. I suspect that is what goes on most places.

[Icness]

Jeff, I'm reading about the Jags wanting to trade down. How much would it cost Carolina to move up two spots? Not saying that they would but I could see it happening depending on who falls.

I'd assume the Jags would love that deal because they could trade down again from #9 and grab even more picks.

If CAR wants to move from 9 to 7, it will cost them a 3rd...which they already traded for Greg Olsen. Maybe CAR's 2nd and JAX throws back their own 3rd.

I am mocking one up where JAX trades back to KC for a 3rd, a 5th and Tyson Jackson. That's my own fabrication but it has some basis in reality. I would put the odds of JAX trading out of 7 at 60%, even higher if the Browns stick at 4 and the Rams at 6. Someone is going to move up for Claiborne if he falls or Melvin Ingram. I've got pretty solid info that the Jaguars want Floyd but would take Cox or Mercilus if they fall back and Floyd is gone. I happen to think Cox will go before Floyd but that's their problem.

[Icness]

Talks of teams with top ten picks wanting to trade down, is it due diligence or a genuine interest in trading down in terms of depth of this draft?

Both. Interpret teams in the top 10 wanting to trade out not as a sign of depth of the draft but rather a sign of weakness at the top. The more feedback I get from teams, the more I am convinced that is the way they see this draft; the top 5 players (Luck, RG3, Richardson, Kalil, Claiborne) are great but after that you might as well pick 46th as much as 6th because the odds of striking gold are the same. I generally agree with that assessment too, though I rate Ingram, Tannehill, and Floyd in that top tier too.