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EvanZ wrote:LMAO as if they didn't know they'd "need a TD" against Pat F'ing Mahomes. Get out of here with that nonsensical take.

They wanted to make sure the defense was as rested as possible against Mahomes. Nothing more nothing less.

What good is the defense being rested? If they score a td they score a td so be it. You now get all 4 downs to use and you don't kick a fg. There's no reason at all to receive the ball. All the advantages are getting the ball 2nd.

EvanZ wrote:LMAO as if they didn't know they'd "need a TD" against Pat F'ing Mahomes. Get out of here with that nonsensical take.

They wanted to make sure the defense was as rested as possible against Mahomes. Nothing more nothing less.

Considering they went for the FG on the first possession of OT, they clearly didn't "know" that mahomes was going to score a TD. Hell, they could have ran it on 3rd down to see if they would pick it up or get close enough to attempt a 4th down play but seemed perfectly fine with kicking for 3

vvoland wrote:

EvanZ wrote:LMAO as if they didn't know they'd "need a TD" against Pat F'ing Mahomes. Get out of here with that nonsensical take.

They wanted to make sure the defense was as rested as possible against Mahomes. Nothing more nothing less.

Considering they went for the FG on the first possession of OT, they clearly didn't "know" that mahomes was going to score a TD. Hell, they could have ran it on 3rd down to see if they would pick it up or get close enough to attempt a 4th down play but seemed perfectly fine with kicking for 3

Purdy literally missed a TD throw. Literally NOBODY watching that game thought "Oh yeah a field goal is enough to beat Pat Mahomes in a Super Bowl".

I mean if you think Shanahan thought that, I have a bridge to sell you.

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:LMAO as if they didn't know they'd "need a TD" against Pat F'ing Mahomes. Get out of here with that nonsensical take.

They wanted to make sure the defense was as rested as possible against Mahomes. Nothing more nothing less.

What good is the defense being rested? If they score a td they score a td so be it. You now get all 4 downs to use and you don't kick a fg. There's no reason at all to receive the ball. All the advantages are getting the ball 2nd.

Do you honestly believe they weren't trying to get a touchdown? I mean, bro, do you really believe that?

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:LMAO as if they didn't know they'd "need a TD" against Pat F'ing Mahomes. Get out of here with that nonsensical take.

They wanted to make sure the defense was as rested as possible against Mahomes. Nothing more nothing less.

What good is the defense being rested? If they score a td they score a td so be it. You now get all 4 downs to use and you don't kick a fg. There's no reason at all to receive the ball. All the advantages are getting the ball 2nd.

Do you honestly believe they weren't trying to get a touchdown? I mean, bro, do you really believe that?

They settled for a fg. They threw on 3rd and 4 and didn’t think they were going to blitz. Yea I don’t think they were going for a td. If the chiefs had scored a td then we’d have went for it on 4th and 4. That’s going for a td bro. Lmao at thinking settling for fg is the same as trying for a td.

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:What good is the defense being rested? If they score a td they score a td so be it. You now get all 4 downs to use and you don't kick a fg. There's no reason at all to receive the ball. All the advantages are getting the ball 2nd.

Do you honestly believe they weren't trying to get a touchdown? I mean, bro, do you really believe that?

They settled for a fg. They threw on 3rd and 4 and didn’t think they were going to blitz. Yea I don’t think they were going for a td. If the chiefs had scored a td then we’d have went for it on 4th and 4. That’s going for a td bro. Lmao at thinking settling for fg is the same as trying for a td.

After Purdy missed the throw, they basically had no choice but to kick the FG. That's just how football works. You would have had them go for a TD on 4th down and then try to stop Mahomes from moving the team into field goal territory? What do you think the chances of that were?

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
Do you honestly believe they weren't trying to get a touchdown? I mean, bro, do you really believe that?

They settled for a fg. They threw on 3rd and 4 and didn’t think they were going to blitz. Yea I don’t think they were going for a td. If the chiefs had scored a td then we’d have went for it on 4th and 4. That’s going for a td bro. Lmao at thinking settling for fg is the same as trying for a td.

After Purdy missed the throw, they basically had no choice but to kick the FG. That's just how football works. You would have had them go for a TD on 4th down and then try to stop Mahomes from moving the team into field goal territory? What do you think the chances of that were?

That’s why you defer in ot. You know what you need and you get an extra down on 4th. Duh

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:They settled for a fg. They threw on 3rd and 4 and didn’t think they were going to blitz. Yea I don’t think they were going for a td. If the chiefs had scored a td then we’d have went for it on 4th and 4. That’s going for a td bro. Lmao at thinking settling for fg is the same as trying for a td.

After Purdy missed the throw, they basically had no choice but to kick the FG. That's just how football works. You would have had them go for a TD on 4th down and then try to stop Mahomes from moving the team into field goal territory? What do you think the chances of that were?

That’s why you defer in ot. You know what you need and you get an extra down on 4th. Duh

Hindsight always looks simple doesn't it.

Shanahan not knowing the overtime rules is unforgivable. It's really unfortunate he's nothing like his father in big games.

I think you guys are saying the same thing lol

Of course niners were trying to score a TD. But once they didn't convert on 3rd they pretty much had to take the 3 points and put it in the defense hands.

The main example that happened that shows the failure in strategy is how the defense held the chiefs to a 4th down in their own territory... but because the Chiefs went 2nd and knew we scored a FG, they are obviously in 4 down scenario until FG range. If Chiefs are going first and get held to a 4th, they probably have to punt in that situation and Niners have a drive to win it with a FG.

The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
After Purdy missed the throw, they basically had no choice but to kick the FG. That's just how football works. You would have had them go for a TD on 4th down and then try to stop Mahomes from moving the team into field goal territory? What do you think the chances of that were?

That’s why you defer in ot. You know what you need and you get an extra down on 4th. Duh

Hindsight always looks simple doesn't it.

Basic strategy is simple. Only advantages to going 2nd, regardless if the defense is tired or not.

EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.

I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol

EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

You just go for 2 and win the game in that instance.

TB wrote:

EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.

I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol

Kyle's reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Because the Chiefs were planning for going for 2 to win the game if they had to so that 3rd possession is pointless.

Really he just didn't think about it. Hell he didn't even tell his team what the rules were. So they never even prepared for it. Malpractice tbh

Onus wrote:

TB wrote:

EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.

I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol

Kyle's reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Because the Chiefs were planning for going for 2 to win the game if they had to so that 3rd possession is pointless.

You realize that you can't know what the Chiefs are going to do on the second possession before you even receive the ball on the first possession right?

I mean you do realize Shanahan had to decide this before they actually played? Right???

All you have to realize is that there are some outcomes where the two teams are tied after the first two possessions. Then the receiving team has the advantage on the third possession. Clearly that will happen at some point. If you are ignoring those odds, then. you are doing the calculation incorrectly 100% of the time.

TB wrote:

EvanZ wrote:The other thing people are missing is the control advantage of having the ball first. If it had got to the third possession then the Niners could have won immediately. You have to take those odds into account.

This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.

I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol

I don't think anyone knows, but it's clearly only hindsight that is making peoiple so certain Shanahan was wrong.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

TB wrote:
This was Kyle's reasoning for taking the ball. He wanted to get the third possession.

I disagree with that assessment and think you obviously defer so that the Chiefs have to play 3 down football while niners potentially get 4 down football. That advantage outweighs getting the advantage if it goes 3rd possession. I have no stats for this, just my opinion lol

Kyle's reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Because the Chiefs were planning for going for 2 to win the game if they had to so that 3rd possession is pointless.

You realize that you can't know what the Chiefs are going to do on the second possession before you even receive the ball on the first possession right?

I mean you do realize Shanahan had to decide this before they actually played? Right???

The chiefs themselves admitted they had a plan and divulged that plan after the game because they actually prepared for it. Kyle didn't prepare for it at all. Half the niners didn't even know what the rules were in ot because they never even discussed it.

If you actually play out all scenarios possible before the game you'd realize all the advantages are to go 2nd. Just do basic game theory

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:Kyle's reasoning is absolutely ridiculous. Because the Chiefs were planning for going for 2 to win the game if they had to so that 3rd possession is pointless.

You realize that you can't know what the Chiefs are going to do on the second possession before you even receive the ball on the first possession right?

I mean you do realize Shanahan had to decide this before they actually played? Right???

The chiefs themselves admitted they had a plan and divulged that plan after the game because they actually prepared for it. Kyle didn't prepare for it at all. Half the niners didn't even know what the rules were in ot because they never even discussed it.

If you actually play out all scenarios possible before the game you'd realize all the advantages are to go 2nd. Just do basic game theory

Tell me what are the probabilities then Mr. Game Theory.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
You realize that you can't know what the Chiefs are going to do on the second possession before you even receive the ball on the first possession right?

I mean you do realize Shanahan had to decide this before they actually played? Right???

The chiefs themselves admitted they had a plan and divulged that plan after the game because they actually prepared for it. Kyle didn't prepare for it at all. Half the niners didn't even know what the rules were in ot because they never even discussed it.

If you actually play out all scenarios possible before the game you'd realize all the advantages are to go 2nd. Just do basic game theory

Tell me what are the probabilities then Mr. Game Theory.

There's 4 options
Get a stop
Give up a fg
Give up a td
Give up a 2 point conversion (this is the only scenario where it would benefit the receiving team). This is the only thing that ensures getting a 3rd possession. Every other outcome benefits the team going 2nd.