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Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:Literally just told on yourself.

LMAO at backing kyle after this. Kyle looking at college stats to get his information. LMAO

Completely unprepared.

I'm backing using logic, not emotion.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:Literally just told on yourself.

LMAO at backing kyle after this. Kyle looking at college stats to get his information. LMAO

Completely unprepared.

I'm backing using logic, not emotion.

what logic?

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:LMAO at backing kyle after this. Kyle looking at college stats to get his information. LMAO

Completely unprepared.

I'm backing using logic, not emotion.

what logic?

You've already seen the logic and heard the logic Kyle gave you. Their logic was that they took into account the likelihood of getting to the third possession. You simply can't ignore that just because it didn't happen. That's called hindsight bias. Do I know that Kyle was correct? No, I don't. But I also don't know that deferring was the correct decision.

As I have said again and again here NOBODY actually knows the math on this one. Not you, not me. Not Andy Reid. Not the talking asses on ESPN. NOBODY. So in the absence of actual knowledge I literally can't blame Kyle for making a mistake in that situation because we don't know what the right choice was.

But what I do see is a lot of emotion and biases at work. It's literally Monday morning quarterbacking. I can't stand it.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
I'm backing using logic, not emotion.

what logic?

You've already seen the logic and heard the logic Kyle gave you. Their logic was that they took into account the likelihood of getting to the third possession. You simply can't ignore that just because it didn't happen. That's called hindsight bias. Do I know that Kyle was correct? No, I don't. But I also don't know that deferring was the correct decision.

As I have said again and again here NOBODY actually knows the math on this one. Not you, not me. Not Andy Reid. Not the talking asses on ESPN. NOBODY. So in the absence of actual knowledge I literally can't blame Kyle for making a mistake in that situation because we don't know what the right choice was.

But what I do see is a lot of emotion and biases at work. It's literally Monday morning quarterbacking. I can't stand it.

LMAO he used college OT data to come to that conclusion. What a bunch of buffoonery.

In the absence of usable statistics probably shouldn't use a completely different sport's ot as data. LMAO

What's not MMQB is the fact the Niners were unprepared for OT. Regardless of the decision to defer or not the fact the players weren't prepared, had no clue what to expect is malpractice. If we had scored a td, they would've celebrated like they won the superbowl and gotten a 15 yard penalty. That's inexcusable.

MMQBing they should've thought it was 2 down territory at the end of the 4th when it was 3rd and 5 at the 35. A first down there essentially wins the game. And of course Kyle kicked. He don't want the responsiblity of winning or losing to fall on him. Always puts his defense out there to try to win the game rather than being an offensive genius and get 5 yards in 2 downs.

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:what logic?

You've already seen the logic and heard the logic Kyle gave you. Their logic was that they took into account the likelihood of getting to the third possession. You simply can't ignore that just because it didn't happen. That's called hindsight bias. Do I know that Kyle was correct? No, I don't. But I also don't know that deferring was the correct decision.

As I have said again and again here NOBODY actually knows the math on this one. Not you, not me. Not Andy Reid. Not the talking asses on ESPN. NOBODY. So in the absence of actual knowledge I literally can't blame Kyle for making a mistake in that situation because we don't know what the right choice was.

But what I do see is a lot of emotion and biases at work. It's literally Monday morning quarterbacking. I can't stand it.

LMAO he used college OT data to come to that conclusion. What a bunch of buffoonery.

In the absence of usable statistics probably shouldn't use a completely different sport's ot as data. LMAO

That doesn't seem logical and it is also odd to say college football is a completely different sport...it is not gymnastics. It is not basketball. It's football with fairly similar OT rules. So your suggestion is instead of (quite logically) using a similar set of data, he should have used nothing? Should he have called you up Mr. Game Theory? Maybe he didn't have your number.

Either way you seem too emotional to have a rational conversation about it. Go cry your feelings out and come back when you want to talk through it calmly.

EvanZ wrote:

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
You've already seen the logic and heard the logic Kyle gave you. Their logic was that they took into account the likelihood of getting to the third possession. You simply can't ignore that just because it didn't happen. That's called hindsight bias. Do I know that Kyle was correct? No, I don't. But I also don't know that deferring was the correct decision.

As I have said again and again here NOBODY actually knows the math on this one. Not you, not me. Not Andy Reid. Not the talking asses on ESPN. NOBODY. So in the absence of actual knowledge I literally can't blame Kyle for making a mistake in that situation because we don't know what the right choice was.

But what I do see is a lot of emotion and biases at work. It's literally Monday morning quarterbacking. I can't stand it.

LMAO he used college OT data to come to that conclusion. What a bunch of buffoonery.

In the absence of usable statistics probably shouldn't use a completely different sport's ot as data. LMAO

That doesn't seem logical and it is also odd to say college football is a completely different sport...it is not gymnastics. It is not basketball. It's football with fairly similar OT rules. So your suggestion is instead of (quite logically) using a similar set of data, he should have used nothing? Should he have called you up Mr. Game Theory? Maybe he didn't have your number.

Either way you seem too emotional to have a rational conversation about it. Go cry your feelings out and come back when you want to talk through it calmly.

The college overtime rules start at the opponents 25 yard line. Yea that's a completely different sport. WTF! Thinking that would translate is wild. LMAO

I'm in my feelings? You literally think using college football's OT rules is comparable. That's rational!

Is it rational to use nothing? I really don't understand that argument. Make it make sense.

Regardless of whether you used nothing or used something, the only fact we actually know is that there was a non-zero chance of a third possession before the coin was flipped. If you deny that, then you are objectively wrong here.

EvanZ wrote:Regardless of whether you used nothing or used something, the only fact we actually know is that there was a non-zero chance of a third possession before the coin was flipped. If you deny that, then you are objectively wrong here.

Keep moving those goal posts ... you'll get there eventually

EvanZ wrote:Regardless of whether you used nothing or used something, the only fact we actually know is that there was a non-zero chance of a third possession before the coin was flipped. If you deny that, then you are objectively wrong here.

I think there is a possibility if the 49ers go for out on fourth down. They were on the 9 yard line and went for the TD on 3rd. I would have taken easy yards on 3rd (Run it with McCaffrey or screen to McCaffrey) and then gone for it on fourth. Odds are they would have been around the 5 yard line.

Having them inside the 10 yard line and the Chiefs knowing they don't have to go for it on fourth down are both huge.

No way I take the FG inside the 10. Especially after the miss.

Onus wrote:

EvanZ wrote:Regardless of whether you used nothing or used something, the only fact we actually know is that there was a non-zero chance of a third possession before the coin was flipped. If you deny that, then you are objectively wrong here.

Keep moving those goal posts ... you'll get there eventually

Sorry what goal post did I move?