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2015 Fantasy Football Thread

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2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#1 » by PkrsBcksGphsMqt » Fri Aug 7, 2015 2:23 pm

Ok, let's get this thing started. I haven't done much research yet, so who are all of your sleepers this year? I have the second overall pick in both of my 2-player keeper leagues. It's looking like AP will be the best available at my spot in each draft. How do you guys feel about him this year? I can't help but think he's due for a pretty big drop off.
BucksRuleAll22 wrote:Calvin Johnson is horrible and not a top WR.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#2 » by Profound23 » Fri Aug 7, 2015 3:24 pm

In a two player keeper league, AP will be not only drafted but the 2nd pick? Assuming it is at least a 12 man league, this means there are 25 players valued higher than AP?

That is insane!


My mid-round sleepers: Joseph Randle, Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Maclin, Keenan Allen,


Late round sleepers: Alfred Blue, Devonta Freeman, Bridgewater, Devin Funchess

Packer sleeper: Richard Rodgers
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#3 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 7, 2015 3:40 pm

Profound23 wrote:In a two player keeper league, AP will be not only drafted but the 2nd pick? Assuming it is at least a 12 man league, this means there are 25 players valued higher than AP?

That is insane!


Lots of keeper leagues have term limits. Either that or somebody dropped him last year when he got suspended for the whole year.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#4 » by PkrsBcksGphsMqt » Fri Aug 7, 2015 3:41 pm

Profound23 wrote:In a two player keeper league, AP will be not only drafted but the 2nd pick? Assuming it is at least a 12 man league, this means there are 25 players valued higher than AP?

That is insane!


Both leagues essentially have the same keeper rules. You give up a draft pick for each keeper. The pick you give up is the draft pick you used on them the previous year, or if you kept the player the year before, you give up a pick 1 round higher. You also can't keep a player if you kept them for a 1st round pick the previous year. That rule gurantees that there will always be good players to take in the 1st round. The most advantagous players to keep are the late round sleepers that blew up, not the best players in the league that went in the first couple of rounds.

The guys that owned AP in each of my league just happened to get the #1 pick in each draft this year, so they would have had to give up the #1 overall pick in the draft to keep him.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#5 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 7, 2015 3:43 pm

It's hard to differentiate between the top 6 or 7 RBs (I haven't done a ton of research, so maybe I'll have an opinion) so I personally don't mind picking 5th or 6th in a snake. Let everyone else pick for me.
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Post#6 » by WeekapaugGroove » Sun Aug 9, 2015 6:56 am

Who would you keep in a ppr keeper, they are just considered ur 1st 2 picks. I won the league so will pick 10 and won't get the one back who I don't keep.

Dez, gronk, or bell? I'm leaning bell and gronk. Reasoning being I want the elite back even if he misses the 1st two weeks and gronk over Dez because of positional scarcity at tight end. But it's real hard to drop Dez; he's been a monster for me the last few years.
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Post#7 » by PkrsBcksGphsMqt » Sun Aug 9, 2015 2:04 pm

I agree with you. Gronk and Bell.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#8 » by Profound23 » Sun Aug 9, 2015 4:45 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:It's hard to differentiate between the top 6 or 7 RBs (I haven't done a ton of research, so maybe I'll have an opinion) so I personally don't mind picking 5th or 6th in a snake. Let everyone else pick for me.



I think after the top 5 (Charles, Peterson, Lacy, Bell, Lynch) there is a drop off. Who do you love after that?

I am looking at Forte.

Jeremy Hill? I fear GIO stills carries from him.
CJ Anderson? I love him, but fear Hill or Ball having a good week or two and taking over.
DeMarco or Shady? New teams...that scares me


And I just don't trust Justin Forsett as my first round pick.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#9 » by Profound23 » Sun Aug 9, 2015 5:31 pm

What do you guys think of Melvin Gordon?

I usually stay away from Badger running backs, but with that offense and his skill set he may be worth a late 2nd/early 3rd.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#10 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Aug 10, 2015 3:06 pm

Profound23 wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:It's hard to differentiate between the top 6 or 7 RBs (I haven't done a ton of research, so maybe I'll have an opinion) so I personally don't mind picking 5th or 6th in a snake. Let everyone else pick for me.



I think after the top 5 (Charles, Peterson, Lacy, Bell, Lynch) there is a drop off. Who do you love after that?

I am looking at Forte.

Jeremy Hill? I fear GIO stills carries from him.
CJ Anderson? I love him, but fear Hill or Ball having a good week or two and taking over.
DeMarco or Shady? New teams...that scares me


And I just don't trust Justin Forsett as my first round pick.


Yeah, I guess I said "6-7" but really meant there is just a big bunch up top that all could be argued as #1. 5 might be right.

Out of your list, I like Murray, but am extremely fearful of McCoy. When you have Manuel trying to generate the offense, there's a good chance that McCoy may be near the goalline about 3 times all year. Any RB plugged into Chip's offense will prosper. I fear durability with Murray, but he's going to get his if he stays healthy.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#11 » by M-C-G » Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:43 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
Profound23 wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:It's hard to differentiate between the top 6 or 7 RBs (I haven't done a ton of research, so maybe I'll have an opinion) so I personally don't mind picking 5th or 6th in a snake. Let everyone else pick for me.



I think after the top 5 (Charles, Peterson, Lacy, Bell, Lynch) there is a drop off. Who do you love after that?

I am looking at Forte.

Jeremy Hill? I fear GIO stills carries from him.
CJ Anderson? I love him, but fear Hill or Ball having a good week or two and taking over.
DeMarco or Shady? New teams...that scares me


And I just don't trust Justin Forsett as my first round pick.


Yeah, I guess I said "6-7" but really meant there is just a big bunch up top that all could be argued as #1. 5 might be right.

Out of your list, I like Murray, but am extremely fearful of McCoy. When you have Manuel trying to generate the offense, there's a good chance that McCoy may be near the goalline about 3 times all year. Any RB plugged into Chip's offense will prosper. I fear durability with Murray, but he's going to get his if he stays healthy.


Murray is getting underrated because of the new system and that he had over the 378 touches last year that has historically doomed RBs. I did read that Philli actually had a better yards per carry before contact then Dallas last year. And that includes the 1 out of every 3 runs McCoy had where he tried to break it outside and was tackled for losses.

I could definitely see a scenario where a healthy Demarco is the top RB...but I could also see the other scenario where he ends up playing 6 games from all that wear and tear last year. He is not usually a guy that stays healthy.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#12 » by M-C-G » Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:46 pm

So I have the 5th pick, and expecting AP, Charles, Lacy, Bell to be off the board. I have historically always disliked Lynch to the point that I can't psych myself up about drafting him, even more so now that he has his new contract, is over 30 and has gone way too healthy for far too long.

So I am thinking Antonio Brown, which just seems insane to me at this point. What do you guys think? I've also tried to trade down but so far no takers, would love to pick around 8 and end up with Dez and Julio.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#13 » by Profound23 » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:35 pm

M-C-G wrote:So I have the 5th pick, and expecting AP, Charles, Lacy, Bell to be off the board. I have historically always disliked Lynch to the point that I can't psych myself up about drafting him, even more so now that he has his new contract, is over 30 and has gone way too healthy for far too long.

So I am thinking Antonio Brown, which just seems insane to me at this point. What do you guys think? I've also tried to trade down but so far no takers, would love to pick around 8 and end up with Dez and Julio.



I have literally drafted Lynch every year but one since he has been in Seattle. Every year someone says "he is due for an injury and going to break down soon." While I agree that he has to sooner or later, I will continue to draft him until he does. It's like buying Apple stock, will it stop growing at some point? Yes, but I will prosper in the growth while I can. The one year I lose on Apple, won't wash out all of the money I have made.

In your case, barring some amazing trade offer....I take Lynch.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#14 » by Profound23 » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:38 pm

I am hoping people are scared off from Bell being suspended. You don't win your title in week 1, but every year a player is under-drafted because he won't play in week 1 or 2.

Also, unless you are playing in a PPR league, I don't like Antonio Brown as high as people are taking him.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#15 » by M-C-G » Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:16 pm

Profound23 wrote:
M-C-G wrote:So I have the 5th pick, and expecting AP, Charles, Lacy, Bell to be off the board. I have historically always disliked Lynch to the point that I can't psych myself up about drafting him, even more so now that he has his new contract, is over 30 and has gone way too healthy for far too long.

So I am thinking Antonio Brown, which just seems insane to me at this point. What do you guys think? I've also tried to trade down but so far no takers, would love to pick around 8 and end up with Dez and Julio.



I have literally drafted Lynch every year but one since he has been in Seattle. Every year someone says "he is due for an injury and going to break down soon." While I agree that he has to sooner or later, I will continue to draft him until he does. It's like buying Apple stock, will it stop growing at some point? Yes, but I will prosper in the growth while I can. The one year I lose on Apple, won't wash out all of the money I have made.

In your case, barring some amazing trade offer....I take Lynch.


Yeah, I mean I know you are right, but feel doubly confident that because I drafted him it is a certainty that injury will be this year. Pretty much just hoping someone in head of me takes him and I land one of the other guys.

And I know it is completely irrational. Just can't stand the guy, but FF championships are won with your head not your heart.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#16 » by Profound23 » Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:37 pm

I am loving how everyone is sleeping on some of the premier wide receivers.

Seeing Calvin and AJ Green fall. Hopefully this trend continues. Would love the 1st pick and have both of them fall to me for my 2nd and 3rd round picks.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#17 » by Marley2Hendrix » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:02 am

Double post
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#18 » by Marley2Hendrix » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:03 am

So... I'm a 10 team, 2QB league guy (6pts per passing TD) and my conundrum is I have a wedding I'll be in on our draft day. I know I'll be hit hard with yahoo autodrafting 2 kickers/2 defenses, so I'm thinking of a bold strategy to make a splash.

My moves (note, had the 3rd overall pick):

Traded my 2nd and 4th rounder for the 2nd overall pick and the guys 8th.
Traded my 3rd overall pick and 5th rounder for the 1st overall pick and the guys 7th.

My keepers are between Latavious Murray, Carlos Hyde, and Brandin Cooks (each would cost a 7th, I have 2, can only keep 2). (leaning toward Brandin Cooks/Murray). Just roughing it based on ADP, value based drafting, and how many from each position gets chosen by each round, something like the following seems realistic:

Round 1 1 QB Aaron Rodgers
Round 1 2 QB Andrew Luck
Round 3 23 RB Justin Forsett
Round 6 58 WR Desean Jackson
Round 7 61 WR Brandin Cooks
Round 7 63 RB Latavious Murray
Round 8 78 RB Gio Bernard
Round 8 79 WR Larry Fitzgerald
Round 9 83 QB Colin Kaepernick
Round 10 98 TE Jordan Cameron

before yahoo drafts a kicker/defense (note - don't think I could get the autodraft to grab a 3rd qb before the k/d. Historically, I've picked a 3rd qb early (like 8th-10th round) and cashed him in early after a top 10-12 guy goes down. Mind you, in a 2qb league, pretty much every starter is rostered, so you need to trade if you don't want a sunk season.

Crazy or alright schedule? I love the 2nd/4th rounders for the 3rd pick and 8th rounder. The cost to move up from AP to Luck/Rodgers is a bit too steep for my blood, but I don't trust auto draft to select my 2nd qb (note, I haven't formally accepted this trade, but it's close). Thoughts?
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#19 » by Profound23 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:09 am

Easy fix Marley. You can put all kickers and defenses on the do not draft list. If you set up your lists correctly it won't draft them no matter what, then just pick up your kicker/def off the waiver wire. I do this with Tight Ends not named Gronk as well. Although I never get Gronk because some idiot always takes him in the first round.
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Re: 2015 Fantasy Football Thread 

Post#20 » by Profound23 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:13 am

I think I am looking at pick 6 in a 12 team draft.

Hoping someone drafts Antonio Brown in top 5....I get one of the top backs (Lynch or Bell) and when it snakes back get DeMarco Murray, McCoy, or CJ Anderson.........third TY Hilton..........fourth Peyton Manning. That looks like my best case scenario as far as top 4.

I am also hoping Joseph Randle doesn't do much in preseason because right now he is going 5th round and that will be a steal.

(My league we use 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a flex either WR or RB....no PPR)

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