Jaguars 2009 Draft Weekend

[SD2042]

TEAM NEEDS/OFFSEASON STRATEGY


The Jaguars are entertaining thoughts of signing free agent wide receiver Torry Holt to fill a void at a depleted receiving position. When the club released Jerry Porter, waived Matt Jones and elected to pass on bringing back Reggie Williams, it left Dennis Northcutt and Troy Williamson as the only proven veterans at this spot. Neither of the latter two has stood out, though Northcutt played his best ball of the season in the team’s final three games last year when Jones was serving a three-game suspension for drug possession. Holt is the only veteran free agent receiver the Jaguars have shown any interest in, but they’ll have to battle Tennessee for his services.

On defense, the Jaguars’ only free agent signee was Sean Considine, the former Philadelphia Eagles safety. While the team has a need there following the departure of Drayton Florence and Gerald Sensabaugh, Considine does not appear to be the answer. He wasn’t a starter with the Eagles and hasn’t shown that he’s ready to step in now. The Jaguars would like to find a free agent for the secondary, but all the top ones appear to be gone at this point, leaving the club with finding someone in the draft.


TEAM NEEDS


1. Wide receiver: the Jaguars were slated to entertain free agent Torry Holt now that the St. Louis receiver is back from his out-of-the-country vacation. Jacksonville needs to land Holt in the worst way, if nothing else because division rival Tennessee will also be pursuing him. At 33, Holt may only have one or two good seasons left, but that could be enough to fill the gap while the Jaguars develop some young receivers at that spot.


2. Defensive tackle: When the Jaguars released Tony McDaniel, it further weakened an already depleted area. John Henderson is the team’s only proven starter and there is no one on the roster, including last year’s starter Rob Meier, who appears capable of filling the opening opposite Henderson.


3. Secondary: It doesn’t matter if it’s a cornerback or safety because Brian Williams has shown that he can play either spot effectively. But the club must find someone good enough that can step in and be an instant starter. Williams may be better as a safety so the preference would be to find a solid cover corner.

[sp1187]

I am nervous we may draft a Quarterback (aka Mark Sanchez) at #8. I still think David Garrard has enough in him to start for 2 or 3 more years and that we need to draft Maclin (sp?), Crabtree or Percy Harvin.

[SD2042]

I don't see why the Jags would draft a QB in the first place. Personally, I would at least sign a QB from free agency like a Charlie Frye or Rex Grossman(inconsistant I know), or JP Losman to backup Gerrard.

If anything, focus the draft on the defensive end. I don't follow the Jags that deep, but if any Jags fans wish to get in on this and post some ideas about who best fit the team. Feel free to post here.

[BigBurd]

A few Jags specific ideas/notes. We have so many needs that it's important we get a maximum impact from this draft as a whole.

To make that happen we have to chose our poison and I agree the one thing we have going for us is versatility amongst our defensive backs; I think we have to use that to defer picking a DB until there's a clear BPA at one of our picks. I'm saying this despite the fact that we have some big issues here. I don't know who's fault it was but last year a lot of CB's released guys into air. Not sure if we fix that with a better FS (e.g. with a brain) or better coverage CB as the first post mentioned... Maybe a guy like Alphonso Smith is tempting so Reggie Nelson can play like, well, like whatever he plays like.

I don't think we draft a RB unless someone really falls. I'd say we go late round FB before we go RB and let Greg Jones play a little HB again. Maybe we see who's still on the board at our 6th/7th.

The most interesting part of this draft for me is how we fill our need at DT while staying at least a little bit close to both BPA and Gene Smiths "character" policies. We also have to factor in that our new DC ran a 3-4, and our personal was poor at best when pressuring the QB from our 4-3. Del Rio has talked openly about mixing a 3-4 in.... This is critical because it may answer a big question for us; do we pay the premium for pass pressure from the DT spot, or do we really want a NT?

[BigBurd]

I split this up because it's so long...

If we want a guy to split a gap and generate pressure I think Peria Jerry is the guy, but he may not fall to our 2nd which opens potential to trade down. However Ron Brace who projects as a solid NT should be there. He may be able to occupy two bodies, and could get better as he improves his technique. I say we get way more value from our first two picks if we go OT with our 1st and NT 2nd.

My surprise pick is a TE with our 3rd or maybe 4th. Jacksonville's OC and QB both love to target ends and we already run many 2 TE sets. Jared Cook and Shawn Nelson could be the BPA at this spot; we're talking 6'-5", 245lbs, 4.5 40's, and 40" verticals. They are in fact pretty close if not faster than many big WR's. Lining up a guy like this in strange slot and 2 TE formations should really mess up a lot of typical NFL defensive schemes. There are NOT Matt Jones projects; each has various strengths but both play TE full time, catch over the middle, and have incredible speed to get open deep. They are projects if we line them up as WR, but I don't mind that upside.

There's also a few guys at 4.6 40s who are interesting, although at this speed they are less perfect WR substitutes but still interesting mismatches. Travis Beckum, Case Coffman, and Cornelius Ingram all had injuries that may hurt their stock so maybe one of these guys is on the board with our 4th/5th.

My best case board if we don't trade down is:
1st: OT
2nd: NT
3rd: TE/DB
4th: TE/DB/WR/NT/LB (we need a new LB if we are playing more 3-4)
5th: TE/DB/WR/NT/LB/FB/HB

(to be clear I don't want three TE, just pointing out one could be drafted between 3rd & 5th)

In review let's assume we do sign Holt, we prey he can influence a few of young WRs, and along with a play maker at TE should be enough to bolster Northcutt, Walker, and Mercedes Lewis. On the DB side Reggie Nelson probably stays at FS, but we pick up a NT & LB to help us work a few 3-4 schemes into our defense and hopefully we get better pressure as a result. The big gain is of course both O and D lines are bolstered in the short and long terms which helps me rest a little easier at night.

Jeremy Maclin & Aphonso Smith are shiny... by which I mean they look good and could be a real difference makers for us; but I can't really justify either pick given the above scenario.

[SD2042]

Tomorrow is draft day. The Jags will spot up at #8 in the draft. Considering they have many needs in the draft. I think the pick will be on the D-line/ If DT, go for B.J. Raji. If at OT, look at Jason Smith. If at WR, go for Jeremy Maclin.

Round 1, Pick 8 (8)
Round 2, Pick 7 (39)
Round 3, Pick 8 (72)
Round 4, Pick 7 (107)
Round 5, Pick 8 (144)
Round 6, Pick 7 (180)
Round 7, Pick 23 (232) (From Dolphins)
Round 7, Pick 41 (250) (Compensatory selection)
Round 7, Pick 44 (253) (Compensatory selection)

TEAM NEEDS: Wide receiver, defensive tackle, cornerback, offensive tackle, running back.


WR—When a team elects not to bring back three of its top five receivers from the year before, it creates a big hole. When the two returning receivers are only mediocre, that hole becomes a huge void. And the addition of aging veteran Torry Holt doesn’t fill it in itself. Veteran Dennis Northcutt and unproven Mike Walker would currently line up as starters for the Jaguars and that isn’t likely to put much fear into opposing defenses. If the Jaguars don’t take Michael Crabtree with their first-round pick, look for them to go after multiple receivers later in the draft.


DT—Rob Meier didn’t get the job done last year when trying to replace Marcus Stroud next to John Henderson. As a result the Jaguars had virtually no pass rush up the middle and had a tough time stopping opposing ball carriers. Meier was more valuable as a fill-in for the latter two in previous years. The Jaguars rank this position as the most pressing need on defense. If Boston College’s B.J. Raji and wide receiver Crabtree are both available to the team at the No. 8 pick, the Jaguars might have to flip a coin.


Cb: The plan of bringing in Drayton Florence as a free agent was a miserable failure. He lasted one season and took his $13 million guaranteed money and left town. The Jaguars are still in search of a replacement. They can move Brian Williams back to that position but that leaves a void at safety. This is another “must-fill” spot for a team that has too many such voids.


Ot: The Jaguars found a replacement for Khalif Barnes at the right tackle spot by signing free agent veteran Tra Thomas. But he’s on the downslide of his career and at 34, will only have one or two seasons left. The Jaguars would love to find a mid-round tackle that can learn under Thomas and then take over some time in 2010.


Rb: When the Jaguars released Fred Taylor, the obvious choice was to move Maurice Jones-Drew into the featured role. But that created an opening behind him. Greg Jones can fill that spot, but he’s battled injuries in the past and hasn’t been a featured back since his college days. Chauncey Washington carried the ball only four times in his rookie season.

[SD2042]

Jags selected OT Eugene Monroe out of Virginia at #8
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... e?id=71401

[SD2042]

Jags selected OT Eben Britton out of Arizona at #39
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... n?id=71219

DT Terrance Knighton out of Temple at #72
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... n?id=81841

CB Derek Cox out of William & Mary at # 73
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... ?id=238354

WR Mike Thomas out of Arizona at #107
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... s?id=81308

WR Jarrett Dillard out of Rice at #144
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... d?id=71281

TE Zach Miller out of Nebraska-Omaha At #180
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... ?id=238457

[BigBurd]

Rashad Jennings out of Liberty at #250
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... s?id=71345

Tiquan Underwood out of Rutgers at #253
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ ... d?id=71491

[BigBurd]

Not sure about our last pick of Tiquan... but we had a great run starting in the 4th with Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard, and good to great value with Zach Miller & Rashad Jennings.

Our WR may be running different routs with these small bodies, but I like the idea of going for productive players when our WR depth chart is so empty.

While not entirely draft related, I found a very interesting piece in which Northcutt talks about understanding his role and helping mentor other WR's:
http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?id=7778

He'll get his chance, but I bet he didn't expect to have players added who's games are so similar to his own!

[Latrell]

While I don't like the passing on Crabtree at 8...I think this draft makes the Jags o-line set for years.