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2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts

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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#261 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:26 pm

My whole premise was based on us being interested in Redick and no way to keep him if we keep Granger. We could keep West too if we offered him another 2 year deal. If we move Green, then I don't see why it'd be an issue to add about a million to his salary slot and give it to Tyler, especially if we are paying half of Granger's salary for Redick. If they are short contracts, then they can easily be traded too.

I wouldn't want to give up OJ either. I've loved what he's brought us off the bench so far and he's super cheap.

I still think we should keep Granger, but if the team is looking at Redick, odds are Granger needs to go.

Granger (or Stephenson) off the bench would be really nice, but we still don't know exactly how well he will play. If we trade for Redick, we know we have a good bench.

Augustin
OJ
Redick
Hansbrough
Mahinmi

That's a very solid bench and one that could possibly do some damage, as opposed to giving up leads. Redick (or Stephenson) would give us another ball handler who can make plays and hit shots, which the bench sorely lacks right now.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#262 » by chatard5 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:27 pm

I think adding a shooter would be huge. We know Jimmer has the range. As I posted elsewhere, the Kings just have a bunch of young guys who seem to want to get their own shots and aren't a "team" whatsoever. But I'd like Jimmer if he's available at a decent price. I like Tyreke Evans, too.

I think the Kings could cash in on some of that talent. But they might want some space before they move to Seattle.

OJ has been good, but in a deal where we can get some talent for now (and hopefully for later) I'd give up our 1st and OJ without much argument, if a team wants them.

And Lance has played well, but I don't know what he could demand and we are in a great spot with him right now.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#263 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:32 pm

pacers33granger wrote:My whole premise was based on us being interested in Redick and no way to keep him if we keep Granger. We could keep West too if we offered him another 2 year deal. If we move Green, then I don't see why it'd be an issue to add about a million to his salary slot and give it to Tyler, especially if we are paying half of Granger's salary for Redick. If they are short contracts, then they can easily be traded too.



It's just not that easy to trade contracts in this current NBA without paying prohibitive costs with the new luxury tax.


Otherwise, I think you're also ignoring the Paul George max extension. Look at it this way (all rough numbers and guesstimates).

2014 Pacers Salary rough Guesstimates
Hibbert - $15 m
George - $14 m
West - $12 m
Hill - $8 m
Mahinmi - $4 m
Plumlee - $1.2 m
OJ - $900k
total - $55.1 m

Add in Reddick at $8 m and Hansbrough at $5 m in your scenario, and also add in our 2013 1st, and 2014 1st, and you're likely already over the luxury tax with 11 players under contract.

So, not only are you then up against luxury tax cap, you've also stated that Reddick and Hansbrough are more valuable to you than Danny Granger and Gerald Green, at a likely similar cost (Granger extension would probably start somewhere from $10-13 m as of right now, while Reddick and Hansbrough will make $13 m in 2014 as well).


To me, Hansbrough should be moved for another guy on a rookie scale contract, or we should use him through the playoff run and then let him walk (or hope to sign him to another rookie scale priced contract - $2 to $3 m max). Gerald Green DOES need to be moved. Then, you have to fiscally hope that Plumlee plays his way into Mahinmi's minutes while at the same time Mahinmi keeping some trade value around the league that we can move him for expirings and some value.


Or, you've got to let West walk and look at moving Granger for an affordable PF long-term. Not exactly ideal, either. If Roy can't add an effective offensive game quickly, he'll put us in a very tough spot. At this point, I'd consider moving him for that reason. He's played a great defensive game thus far this year, but at $15 m, we are going to need more from Roy.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#264 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:57 pm

IF, Roy is just going to be a defensive presence, is it worth spending $15 m a year on him? Would it be worth moving him for some value? If so, let's look at defensive centers that could replace him for a better price. Two that come to mind are Biyombo in Charlotte, and Asik in Houston.

Would Morey in Houston be blinded by the name value of Hibbert and swap something like:
Hibbert/Hansbrough for Asik/Delfino/Patterson or Jones?

Would Jordan/Cho in Charlotte swap something like:
Biyombo/Sessions/Diop/Henderson for Hibbert/Green/Augustine? Probably send Augustine to a 3rd team like Dallas and route someone like Collison to Charlotte instead.....


Essentially, can you fill a couple holes while not really losing much of what Hibbert is bringing? Would moving Hibbert also allow you to keep West and Granger long-term, or, at least, move Granger in a more fitting move without just slashing salary? Would that be worth it to you?
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#265 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:11 pm

I don't expect West to have a deal that makes him 12 mil in year 2 of a deal. The majority of teams with cap space are looking for young players and aren't playoff teams as of now.

If the Pacers sign players to shorter deals, which I'm assuming is the idea based on the last few signings, then players like Hansbrough would not be hard to move. In a year or two giving up a late first and Hansbrough for cap space should pose no real issue as we will have Plumlee likely getting more minutes and won't need young players with guaranteed deals.

Also, though it wouldn't make a huge difference, the idea was to sign Hansbrough, Redick, and West to declining deals, which would save a few mil each year for the new deals for George and possibly Stephenson.

I think Hansbrough signing for 2-3 is a pipedream. Hell, Green got 3.5 over 3 (I know that was a major miss on the part of the Pacers, but still). As I've said, I think Hansbrough is worth more than people think.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#266 » by 8305 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:09 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:IF, Roy is just going to be a defensive presence, is it worth spending $15 m a year on him? Would it be worth moving him for some value? If so, let's look at defensive centers that could replace him for a better price. Two that come to mind are Biyombo in Charlotte, and Asik in Houston.

Would Morey in Houston be blinded by the name value of Hibbert and swap something like:
Hibbert/Hansbrough for Asik/Delfino/Patterson or Jones?

Would Jordan/Cho in Charlotte swap something like:
Biyombo/Sessions/Diop/Henderson for Hibbert/Green/Augustine? Probably send Augustine to a 3rd team like Dallas and route someone like Collison to Charlotte instead.....


Essentially, can you fill a couple holes while not really losing much of what Hibbert is bringing? Would moving Hibbert also allow you to keep West and Granger long-term, or, at least, move Granger in a more fitting move without just slashing salary? Would that be worth it to you?


When you throw out the idea of getting an otherwise great long term fit to this team (like Tyreke Evans) its only natrual to starting looking at exit strategies for Roy.

As to the trade ideas, Morway wouldn't make that trade. He konws what a bargin Asik is and he's got him locked up for multiple years. That's a great position to be in. The Charlotte idea might have more potential.

How about this one, once the season is over?

Pacers trade Hibbert, Granger, Stephenson
Hornets trade Gordon, Lopez, Vasquez,

Probably too much risk long term with Gordon.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#267 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:30 pm

pacers33granger wrote:I don't expect West to have a deal that makes him 12 mil in year 2 of a deal. The majority of teams with cap space are looking for young players and aren't playoff teams as of now.


Coming off a similar production year in New Orleans, yet a catastrophic knee injury, he got 2 yr/$20 million from us, and likely would've signed for more with Boston if they could've worked out a S&T that intrigued New Orleans. Why would you think he wouldn't get more, since he's proving his health?


pacers33granger wrote:If the Pacers sign players to shorter deals, which I'm assuming is the idea based on the last few signings, then players like Hansbrough would not be hard to move. In a year or two giving up a late first and Hansbrough for cap space should pose no real issue as we will have Plumlee likely getting more minutes and won't need young players with guaranteed deals.


So you'd prefer to re-sign Hansbrough, knowing full well that even at his best you'd have to include a 1st round pick later to dump his contract that you feel forced into?

pacers33granger wrote:Also, though it wouldn't make a huge difference, the idea was to sign Hansbrough, Redick, and West to declining deals, which would save a few mil each year for the new deals for George and possibly Stephenson.


Salary can only drop by 7.5% from year to year. Say you sign Reddick to a deal that starts at $8 million in year one, year 2, that means he would be paid $7.4 million in year 2. Hansbrough at $5 m in year 1 would equal $4.6m, and West at $11 m (conservatively) in year 1, would equal $10.175 m in year 2. Thus, they'd combine for over $22 million in 2014. Add in Paul George's max salary, and the 1st round pick salaries in 2013 and 2014 and you're over $70 million in 2014 already. 11 players under contract. Resigning Lance would likely cost at least $3-5 million (if we don't see any more progress that what we've already seen this year). You're looking at $75 million on a roster of:

Hill
Lance/Johnson
George/Reddick
West/Hansbrough
Hibbert/Mahinmi/Plumlee

With 2 other 1st round picks on the roster. Hope that's a championship roster, because you have no way to alleviate cap in 2015, essentially not until Hibbert and Mahinmi expire in 2016.

pacers33granger wrote:I think Hansbrough signing for 2-3 is a pipedream. Hell, Green got 3.5 over 3 (I know that was a major miss on the part of the Pacers, but still). As I've said, I think Hansbrough is worth more than people think.


And thus, why I'd let him walk. Am I going to choose Hansbrough over West? No way. Looks to be we can only afford one or the other in the grand scheme long-term.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#268 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:33 pm

you haven't convinced me that signing Reddick does anything for us. Lance and OJ have much bigger upsides at much lower cost.

Hansbrough has to show a lot more (beginning with a left hand) before there is any point in resigning him. maybe you could trade him to Charlotte where he has local hero value but otherwise he'll just be an expiring contract at some point which can only be traded for a longer contract which makes no sense. I think we just have to hope that Plumlee or some draft pick this year or next will fill the backup 4 role ... although the ideal situation would be to find a team with too many 4's and too few 3's that would have a use for Green.

... or to play smaller on the second unit sliding Granger to 4. can a front court of PG, DG, and either Roy or Ian spell West?
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#269 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:33 pm

West may have been coming off an injury when we signed him, but that was the old CBA and West is still now 2 years older. On top of that, the teams that will have space either already have bigs or are crap teams that West wouldn't even want to be on.

Hawks, Cavs, Mavs, Blazers, Magic, Hornets, Jazz, Wizards, Bobcats, Pistons. (I think there's more, but that is the majority of teams with cap space to play with this summer). I don't see West wanting to sign with any of these teams honestly. The only decent ones already have a 4. And I doubt we would do any sort of a sign and trade unless we got another starting 4 back.

My point about trading Tyler with a first was that would be the worst we would likely have to do to move him (this is assuming he signs a short deal). Hell, sign him for 4-5 per for 2 years and deal him at the 14 draft before George's extension kicks in. If he's expiring we likely wouldn't have to include the pick and someone could give value for him.

I just think it's a bad idea to let assets walk, which is what we would have to do with Granger. And I'm not sold that his value will be enough by then that'd we'd get anything in a sign and trade.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#270 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:27 pm

I'd rather let Tyler go for nothing than to let a first round pick walk with him. there is no need to sign him at 4-5mm if he can only command half of that on the free market.

I'm betting Granger goes nowhere. we paid some luxury tax to let Reggie be a one team player and if that's what we have to do to let Danny do the same, so be it. and if West has no good options, Danny wouldn't either I suspect, however, that they'll both have options. the hope is that even if they wouldn't give a home town discount on their own, they might give one together not unlike what the big three did to get to Miami although at a lower price point.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#271 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:52 pm

Oh I don't think Granger is going anywhere, just that if we're looking at Redick, Granger has to go imo.

And if we're looking at a late 20s pick, it's usually not even worth the guaranteed money. High 2nds are usually loads more valuable than late firsts.

I'm highly skeptical that he could only command 2-3 mil on the open market. Despite his shortcomings, he is productive. Looking at some of last summer's signings, I don't see how he doesn't get a 4-5 offer:

Carl Landry: 2 year deal worth 4 mil a year
Green: 3 year deal worth 3.5 a year
Jeff Green: 4 year deal starting at 8 mil a year
Steve Novak: 4 year deal starting at 4 mil a year (declining)

And there are loads more in the league. I don't want us to overpay just to keep Tyler, but as long as he's on a short deal, we will be able to move him (with the idea of adding a first as a last resort) and I see no reason to let assets walk away for nothing, even if all we get is a year more of Tyler and a second/TPE in exchange.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#272 » by 8305 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:51 pm

You may not want to let assets walk but, I'd say get used to it. If you assume this team is committed to a core of George, Hibbert, Hill and West that's about 50 mil after the summer of 2014 to those four alone. That leaves approximately 20 mil to spread between 10 players. Given that the only way Hansbrough or Augustin are back next season is on one year contracts. Heck in the summer of 2014 Stephenson might be tough to bring back. No way you can afford to pay multiple bench guys 5 mil or more per year.

It will be all about money ball. Productive guys on rookie contracts and veterans on minimum contracts will be what populates our bench.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#273 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:01 pm

pacers33granger wrote:Oh I don't think Granger is going anywhere, just that if we're looking at Redick, Granger has to go imo.

And if we're looking at a late 20s pick, it's usually not even worth the guaranteed money. High 2nds are usually loads more valuable than late firsts.

I'm highly skeptical that he could only command 2-3 mil on the open market. Despite his shortcomings, he is productive. Looking at some of last summer's signings, I don't see how he doesn't get a 4-5 offer:

Carl Landry: 2 year deal worth 4 mil a year
Green: 3 year deal worth 3.5 a year
Jeff Green: 4 year deal starting at 8 mil a year
Steve Novak: 4 year deal starting at 4 mil a year (declining)

And there are loads more in the league. I don't want us to overpay just to keep Tyler, but as long as he's on a short deal, we will be able to move him (with the idea of adding a first as a last resort) and I see no reason to let assets walk away for nothing, even if all we get is a year more of Tyler and a second/TPE in exchange.


Oh, he can probably get more. I just hope we're not the ones who overpay him. I would choose keeping West over keeping Hansbrough.

Sometimes, it's better to let assets walk. How much did contracts like Tinsley, Bender, Best, etc hurt us in the past. Shouldn't we have let Brad Miller walk rather than take on Pollards long term deal?


At some point, you're just throwing good money after bad out of spite. Wouldn't you consider it letting an asset walk if you have to give up picks to get rid of Hansbrough after you already let West walk to sign Hansbrough instead? I see that we let 2 better assets go just because we didn't want to lose Hans for "nothing".
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#274 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:04 pm

the Colts stayed competitive for a very long time by spending big money on the key players and rolling the rest over and over again continually letting their draft picks walk and the end of their rookie deals. the rules are different but letting your guys walk after four years if they don't become starters can make sense. at the other extreme you can fill the end of your bench with players past their prime. I have no problem keeping your own players on (see Jeff Foster) but I'm not a big fan of filling the end of the bench was over the hill outsiders.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#275 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:54 pm

The problem with the Bender, Tinsley, etc. contracts were their length and the fact that their issues occurred early on in said long contracts. Hansbrough on a 2 year deal wouldn't be an issue and would be an easy move after a season, likely without a pick.

I don't think a 2 year for 4-5 per is a bad deal for him by any means and would be pretty easy to move. For example, say it's the 14 draft and he's now an expiring and we have the 26th pick. There's a good chance someone in the early 2nd will want the pick for a specific player who won't last until theirs (say the Kings and that they have the 5th pick in the 2nd for arguments sake). We tell them that the price to move up is their 2nd and taking on Hansbrough. Rather than pay a team 3 mil straight up for a late first, they pay 2 mil more and get a productive player as well (who they could then move at the deadline and only pay half his salary). We'd save money by dropping to the early 2nd as well.

Obviously that is an if scenario, but there's plenty of them out there if it's a short contract.

If we signed him to any longer, I agree we would have to let West walk, but on a 2 year deal we can still keep West.

I totally understand the idea that we can't have an expensive bench, but if we keep restocking it each year with new players, it will continue to suck unless we strike gold somewhere.

And we don't have the luxury the Colts had with one of the best QBs of his generation.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#276 » by 8305 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:09 am

The Colts comparison is valid. The good news being we have core players who are worth paying.

Personally I think Hansbrough is gone after this season. Someone will probably pay him 4-5 mil a year for 3 or 4 years. A franchise needing to light a fire under their team and make them more competitive night in night out. Like we did when we drafted him. I think the Pacers like Pendergraf just about as much as Tyler and he can probably be had for half the price. If you assume West is resigned your only talking about 12 minutes a game for his backup.

Bottom line energy guys are in every draft and many times available in the 2nd round. Paying them any more that what they get on rookie contracts isn't a good way to spend your money.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#277 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:52 am

pacers33granger wrote:The problem with the Bender, Tinsley, etc. contracts were their length and the fact that their issues occurred early on in said long contracts. Hansbrough on a 2 year deal wouldn't be an issue and would be an easy move after a season, likely without a pick.

I don't think a 2 year for 4-5 per is a bad deal for him by any means and would be pretty easy to move. For example, say it's the 14 draft and he's now an expiring and we have the 26th pick. There's a good chance someone in the early 2nd will want the pick for a specific player who won't last until theirs (say the Kings and that they have the 5th pick in the 2nd for arguments sake). We tell them that the price to move up is their 2nd and taking on Hansbrough. Rather than pay a team 3 mil straight up for a late first, they pay 2 mil more and get a productive player as well (who they could then move at the deadline and only pay half his salary). We'd save money by dropping to the early 2nd as well.

Obviously that is an if scenario, but there's plenty of them out there if it's a short contract.

If we signed him to any longer, I agree we would have to let West walk, but on a 2 year deal we can still keep West.

I totally understand the idea that we can't have an expensive bench, but if we keep restocking it each year with new players, it will continue to suck unless we strike gold somewhere.

And we don't have the luxury the Colts had with one of the best QBs of his generation.


To keep West and Hansbrough, we will be in the luxury tax unless we move George, Hibbert, or Hill for smaller deals.

Also, to get someone to take on Hans and $5 m in 2 years would likely cost us our 1st rounds, at least, and we won't be getting an early 2nd. We likely won't be getting anything positive back. An Andrew Betts kind of deal. I think your whole argument depends on the belief that Hans will take a 2 year deal, and then that he will hold value on the trade market making it easy to deal, and that the cost to deal him will be nothing, as opposed to the likely cost in a more costly luxury tax environment and when we will obviously have our backs against a wall. I disagree.

I also believe that we could hit free agency and find similar production elsewhere for cheaper.

Lastly, why do you think Hans would agree to a 2 year deal? I imagine he's going to demand a 3 year deal minimum.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#278 » by pacers33granger » Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:31 am

Tyler may want a 3 year deal, but I don't think he will get it with the new CBA from anyone. If he can get one somewhere else, then good for him and I don't think we should match at that point. Maybe just give him an unguaranteed third year. Landry had to settle for a 2 year deal worth 4 mil, with the second a player option, so I'd think that'd be a good benchmark for Tyler. He may even opt out after 1 year, so that would solve the problem itself.

On the 2 year deal my point was that after the first year (where the team would have money before George's extension), he would be an expiring, so I don't see why a team wouldn't take on 5 mil of Tyler to move up in the draft when teams pay a few mil for late firsts. If they can flip him to someone mid season when he has half a year left to a contender and get a small asset, then they paid 2.5 mil and gave a 2nd for a first, half a season of Tyler, and another asset.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#279 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:53 am

pacers33granger wrote:Tyler may want a 3 year deal, but I don't think he will get it with the new CBA from anyone. If he can get one somewhere else, then good for him and I don't think we should match at that point. Maybe just give him an unguaranteed third year. Landry had to settle for a 2 year deal worth 4 mil, with the second a player option, so I'd think that'd be a good benchmark for Tyler. He may even opt out after 1 year, so that would solve the problem itself.

On the 2 year deal my point was that after the first year (where the team would have money before George's extension), he would be an expiring, so I don't see why a team wouldn't take on 5 mil of Tyler to move up in the draft when teams pay a few mil for late firsts. If they can flip him to someone mid season when he has half a year left to a contender and get a small asset, then they paid 2.5 mil and gave a 2nd for a first, half a season of Tyler, and another asset.


How many "expirings" for guys who are average contributors do you see at each trade deadline that teams want to take on AND give up value? This year, it only appears to be one; JJ Reddick.

Look at the Grizzlies, who were over the luxury tax, and everyone knew it. The trade they pulled first to get under the luxury tax was one where they gave up their Orlando Johnson (Josh Selby), their better version of Hansbrough (Speights), and another 2nd round pick they liked in Wayne Ellington, AND they had to give up a 1st round pick as well. THAT'S the exact same situation we would be in.


I just view Tyler as a replaceable big. He's nice, in that he brings energy. But that's a pretty easy spot to replace. In fact, you hope that Plumlee replaces that easily, and tonight, even a Jeff Pendergraph level guy can replace that. Heck, Reggie Evans is only being paid $1.6 million this year to bring energy, defense, and scrappiness, while rebounding as well as anyone in the league. That's the kind of player and deal you need to go out and replace a Hansbrough with. A Hansbrough that will look to bring in his big money deal on this new contract.

I also view the current NBA economy as one where teams are going to start valuing their 1sts as rotational players that are locked into extremely low contracts for 4 years, so that you can pay your starter level veterans higher money. The hit rate in the 2nd round is so extremely low. We appear to have hit a home run by picking up Lance and OJ in the last couple years. Very few teams can produce with a single 2nd round pick, let alone multiple 2nd rounders. Before those guys, the last successful 2nd rounders we had were AJ Price in 2009, James Jones in 2003 and Antonio Davis in 1990. 5 hits in the 2nd round in the last 23 years. That's a pretty low hit rate.
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Re: 2012/13 Random Trade Thoughts 

Post#280 » by pacers33granger » Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:06 am

I do actually agree with a lot of what your saying. I do think our firsts won't be much different than early 2nds for awhile. The whole draft is a crapshoot, but after the lottery it usually gets really bad.

The Grizz did like Ellington, but they traded a player they had no place for in Ellington for him and weren't going to resign him either way likely. Selby obviously had no place there either and seems to not have improved much since high school. He was more dead weight than someone like OJ whose already shown flashes.

Speights also does have another year and there's not many teams out there who could take in 3 players so that upped the value they had to send out a bit. The Grizzlies also did have some monster salaries: Gay 17 mil, Randolph 16.5 mil, Gasol 14 mil = 47.5. Figure out frontline at Hibbert - 15, George - 14, West - 10 = 39, for a difference of 8.5 mil.

There's still definitely concerns, but Hibbert's deal is only 4 years and West likely won't have a long contract. If we're not careful we could be in Grizzlies territory, but I don't think the front office would handle the situation as poorly and openly as the Grizzlies did this season and we don't have super huge deals (yet).

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