The unmentionable: how do we keep Lance?

[pacers70]

What we seem to forget to look at, myself included, is that Lance will sign a 4-5 year deal. Yes, the Pacers can only afford to pay him $7-8 million next year, however, the year after that Scola, Copeland and Watson's salaries will drop off the books. In the summer of 2016 Hibbert, West and Mahinimi also come off the books.

Looking at the summer of 2016, the Pacers will only have Hill ($8 mil), George ($18.1 mil), S. Hill ($2.3 mil) our 2015 and 2016 first round draft picks each getting $1.5-$2.0 million. That's 5 players and $31.9 million committed. The tax cap will most likely rise to $80 million or more. That will leave $49.1 million to sign 8 guys. If we sign Hibbert at the same amount as George ($18.1) we have $31.1 million left. Assuming we don't draft a starting PF, sign a FA for $10-12 million, I'll use $11 million. There is $20.1 million left to sign 6 guys. We have 4 starters under contract, hopefully S. Hill we be a good back-up and we will draft a decent back-up big and/or PG. We'll say for this example that we drafted a decent back-up PG. We can spend $4 million for a back-up PF/C and $4 million for 4 players to fill out the roster. That leaves $12 million for Lance.

What I am trying to say with this example is that we could sign Lance to a 4 year contract paying him $8-$10-$12-$14 million per year respectively. Personally I don't think we should pay him that much, but we could. That means we should be very much in the race to get Stephenson and if he leaves, we have money to bring in someone else.

[8305]

So in 2015 you lose Scola 5 mil, Copeland 3 mil and Watson 2 mil. Say 10 mil of cap space created of which you will need 5 -6 mil to bring total payroll below the luxury tax threshold (assuming Lance is signed for 10 to 12 mil per year). That would leave you with 5 mil to pay a 1st round pick, and back ups at the 1 and 4 positions.

With the exception of Mahamni that's a complete rebuild of the existing bench.

For that amount of money can you assemble anything close to the quality of Watson, Scola and Granger?

[EuroPacer]

What we seem to forget to look at, myself included, is that Lance will sign a 4-5 year deal. Yes, the Pacers can only afford to pay him $7-8 million next year, however, the year after that Scola, Copeland and Watson's salaries will drop off the books. In the summer of 2016 Hibbert, West and Mahinimi also come off the books.

Looking at the summer of 2016, the Pacers will only have Hill ($8 mil), George ($18.1 mil), S. Hill ($2.3 mil) our 2015 and 2016 first round draft picks each getting $1.5-$2.0 million. That's 5 players and $31.9 million committed. The tax cap will most likely rise to $80 million or more. That will leave $49.1 million to sign 8 guys. If we sign Hibbert at the same amount as George ($18.1) we have $31.1 million left. Assuming we don't draft a starting PF, sign a FA for $10-12 million, I'll use $11 million. There is $20.1 million left to sign 6 guys. We have 4 starters under contract, hopefully S. Hill we be a good back-up and we will draft a decent back-up big and/or PG. We'll say for this example that we drafted a decent back-up PG. We can spend $4 million for a back-up PF/C and $4 million for 4 players to fill out the roster. That leaves $12 million for Lance.

What I am trying to say with this example is that we could sign Lance to a 4 year contract paying him $8-$10-$12-$14 million per year respectively. Personally I don't think we should pay him that much, but we could. That means we should be very much in the race to get Stephenson and if he leaves, we have money to bring in someone else.

That isnt actually bad thinking, we could of course offer a similar contract to Lance as Houston did with Lin and Asik. it'd be a gamble, but might prove to be very shrewd...

[pacers70]

So in 2015 you lose Scola 5 mil, Copeland 3 mil and Watson 2 mil. Say 10 mil of cap space created of which you will need 5 -6 mil to bring total payroll below the luxury tax threshold (assuming Lance is signed for 10 to 12 mil per year). That would leave you with 5 mil to pay a 1st round pick, and back ups at the 1 and 4 positions.

With the exception of Mahamni that's a complete rebuild of the existing bench.

For that amount of money can you assemble anything close to the quality of Watson, Scola and Granger?

Good point 8305. We are never going to be able to replace Granger off the bench. We have to accept the fact that this year is a once in a lifetime opportunity. We can, however, get a decent bench and with our current starters, that would make us a very good team.

The key is the development of S. Hill. If he can become a decent back-up wing, then you only need to find a back-up PG and PF. Assuming the luxury cap will be 75 million in 2014 and 80 million in 2016, it would most likely be around 77 million for 2015.

With Hill, Lance (at 10 mil), George, Hibbert and West as starters, you would have used $63 million in salary. Add Mahinmi and S. Hill and you have used $69.3 million and still need to fill 6 roster spots. Two can be at the minimum which is about .5 million. You will now have used $70.3 million on 9 spots. The 2015 1st round pick will take around $2 million. You are now at $72.3 million and need 3 spots filled and the cap is $77 million. You have 4.7 million to get 3 guys including a back-up PG and back-up PF. We got Watson for $2 million this year, we should be able to find a decent back-up PG near that price again. We are now down to $2.7 million for 2 spots. It's tough, but possible to find a back-up PF for $2 million. We would then have .7 million for the final player.

Hopefully our 2015 1st round draft pick will be able to contribute off the bench. If we pick a PG or PF, that would help a lot.

It would be tough, but it is doable.

[8305]

I agree Pacer70. Tough but doable. Rhetorical question,

As a 5th option playing with 4 extremely strong players will you get as much benefit from George Hill as you might get from a bench closer to what we enjoy this season?

[Wizop]

DWest was quoted on last night's broadcast as saying he wanted to retire as a Pacer. they did not say when. would he consider retiring this summer if he wins a ring? it's a lot of money to give up and there's the chance of a second ring too but I wouldn't discount completely the chance that he'd bow out if he thought that was in the best interest of the team.

[8305]

DWest was quoted on last night's broadcast as saying he wanted to retire as a Pacer. they did not say when. would he consider retiring this summer if he wins a ring? it's a lot of money to give up and there's the chance of a second ring too but I wouldn't discount completely the chance that he'd bow out if he thought that was in the best interest of the team.

Can you site an instance where a player walked away from 26 million in the best interests of the team? I think this notions has been discussed before and I just don't see it. I think what David is more likely saying is that when his current contract expires he would come back at a discounted price for the benefit of retiring a Pacer.

[EuroPacer]

If I am not mistaken, when he retires he still gets paid, just not counting towards the cap?

[8305]

If I am not mistaken, when he retires he still gets paid, just not counting towards the cap?

I've never understood it that way. If you are right wouldn't there be a number of perverse incentives.

[EuroPacer]

I could be wrong, I am by no means a CBA specialist

[pacers33granger]

Is there any slight chance that, should we win the Finals, Simon agrees to pay the tax to
keep the team together?

Bird mentioned that their stance on the tax could change. Simon may be willing to pay for a year or two to keep this team together. It likely would only be one year as both Hibbert/West have player options. I could see both of them opting out to sign deals for less money (Hibbert's great, but I doubt he gets 15 mil on the open market).

Lance has also said he doesn't want to leave and won't talk about it. If it comes down to a mil or two I think he stays and I'm skeptical anyone offers him a max as it would be risky on their part. As another posted stated, we'd have about 10 mil under the luxury tax (projected) next season without Lance factored in. Copeland should be able to be moved easily for space so that adds another 3 mil. It's very doable even without Simon paying the tax.

I'd expect Bird to try and find cheap young guys like Morey has to round out the roster. I'd also like to see them try and buy a 2nd or two to get a young guy real cheap on a 3-4 year deal.

[plonskimatt]

“According to Shamsports, Indiana has approximately $65.9 million in committed contracts for next season.“ Then figure in PG's raise which Zach Lowe reports, ”The two sides struck an interesting compromise, according to several sources who have seen George’s deal, his salary will settle at 27 percent of the cap level, instead of the full 30 percent. That would set George’s starting salary at about $15.8 million, given the league’s projected cap for next season. That’s about $1.75 million less than George could have earned had he fought for the full 30 percent.” With projected tax threshold at 75.7mil., that leaves roughly 7.5mil. left and 11 players under contract(assuming bringing everyone but Danny back, which makes most logical sense). Use this money to sign lance, brings roster to 12, and the MLE to fill both fill 1-2 more players as well as have a small amount in case of injury etc. Remember since pacers have Bird rights to Lance they alone can offer him an extra 5th yr to his contract as well as a 7.5% yearly raises as opposed to the 4.5% others can. Add on his proclaimed and real allegiance to Pacers & Larry Bird, the fact we have a VERY real chance of winning the chip this year, and that the Pacers could structure his contract in a way that his first year of his contract has the lower end of a base salary then increases as well as incentives like player options etc. and you can clearly see the pacers could meet the forecasted 7-9mil. it has been reported he will fetch. One thing to note is you never know what can happen from now till offseason but this is where it stands as of now. I have done extensive research on this and if you believe any of this is flawed I’d be happy to direct you to any number of sources I used.

[cammac]

A Raptor fan coming in peace.
I see little chance of Indy being able to hold onto Stephenson.
Philly will have only 24 million in guaranteed salaries in 2014/15 plus their 5 picks.
They are very young and adding Stephenson @ something like front loading 15, 12, 12, 12 won't hurt them.

[8305]

I think Lance can be retained but, I'd be really be surprised if it gets done for 7-9 mil/year. Couple that with other teams' ability to front load the contract and I think that will make the back loaded contract that much harder to sell. I think there is a chance Lance might give the Pacers some level of discount but shaving 1 or 2 mil off 12-13 mil is much easier to justify than taking 1 or 2 mil off a 10 mil starting point.

This is still a business and that means the market will dictate what Lance gets paid. Signing a 23 year old who is playing at or very near all star level for less than 10 mil in the current NBA seems like a far fetched notion to me.

[mikepacernation]

A Raptor fan coming in peace.
I see little chance of Indy being able to hold onto Stephenson.
Philly will have only 24 million in guaranteed salaries in 2014/15 plus their 5 picks.
They are very young and adding Stephenson @ something like front loading 15, 12, 12, 12 won't hurt them.

explain why we have little chance? And why he would choose a team like Philly to go to. Lately philly doesn't have a great track record on being able to make players happy

[tocooks]

Lance isnt going anywhere, hes too valuable to us and we are too valuable to him.

[Scoot McGroot]

Lance isnt going anywhere, hes too valuable to us and we are too valuable to him.

There's a chance that Lance leaves. It's only realistic. He's worked for so cheap these last 4 years and he and his agent are going to look to get a contract that can change Lance's family tree and keep them permanently out of public housing in NYC. It's only fair to Lance. However, our hope is that they feel that Lance will make the most by staying in Indy to take a little less in year one while making it up with 7.5% raises (vs 4.5%) and with a more stable environment that could enable him to also net another big contract in 3 or 4 years.

It's 50/50. And that's understandable. If he walks, it would suck, but we would keep everyone else (Lance, Cope, etc) and look to re-sign Granger and/or use our MLE on a SG in free agency. We'll make due, somehow.

[tocooks]

If it came down to it, would you trade Hill to re-sign Lance? I'm a huge fan of Hill but letting Lance walk would be tough.

[mikepacernation]

If it came down to it, would you trade Hill to re-sign Lance? I'm a huge fan of Hill but letting Lance walk would be tough.

I would for sure. Lance has a chance to be really good and I think Hill had hit the ceiling. I don't see Hill becoming any better then he is now

[Wizop]

Lance has effectively been the second unit point guard. my willingness to let Hill go would depend upon whether we thought Lance could be first unit point guard. he has blossomed after we moved him from 1 to 2. I'd try playing Lance, PG, and Granger together this year and see how that grouping does.