The team has gone to great lengths to give Wilson what he wants over the past two seasons. Last year, in what felt like a reaction to the pleas to “Let Russ Cook,” Seattle adjusted its run-heavy approach and ranked fifth in early-down pass rate, according to RBSDM.com. Letting Russ cook worked for a month or two, but teams eventually adjusted and neither former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer nor Wilson was able to find a counter. Carroll’s conclusion was that the Seahawks weren’t running the ball well enough to get defenses out of the two-high-safety looks that had given the offense so many problems. So the Waldron hire was seen as a compromise. Coming from the McVay tree, the first-time coordinator was expected to install a fresh offensive system that would give Wilson the tools to succeed—pre-snap motion and tempo were the buzzwords all offseason—and allow a zone-based run game to remain the foundation on which the passing game is built. Wilson was happy, Carroll was happy, and the fans were excited to see the new offense in action.
Two months into the season, that new offense is starting to look a whole lot like the old offenses Seattle ran under Schottenheimer and Wilson’s first offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell. That’s not necessarily an unexpected development given the quarterback’s skill set. One feature of Wilson’s play style that has really impacted Waldron’s play-calling is his apparent refusal to target the middle of the field at the intermediate levels. It could be a height thing—at 5-foot-11, seeing deep into the middle of the field could be hard for the passer—or maybe Wilson just isn’t comfortable making anticipatory throws into tighter windows. But there is no denying it’s a problem at this point. Here’s a heat map comparing the routes Seattle is running and where Wilson is throwing the ball this season, via Pro Football Focus. Look at all that blue in the middle of the field.
Wilson not targeting the middle of the field isn’t a new issue, and Waldron has adjusted to call fewer plays that attack that area. But that’s a problem for an offensive coach who cut his teeth in a system built on those exact concepts. In-breaking routes over the middle helped Jared Goff look like a real-life quarterback in Los Angeles and have turned Matthew Stafford into an MVP candidate—yet they’re nowhere to be found in this version of the McVay offense. Seattle ranks dead last in pass plays that include at least one in-breaking route over the middle of the field this season, according to TruMedia. Wilson has attempted only 28 passes with an in-breaking route, and almost all of those that were aimed at the intermediate area (10 to 25 yards downfield) have gone to the big-bodied DK Metcalf, who isn’t the best at running those routes due to change-of-direction issues.
Waldron’s run game has also had to change to suit his quarterback. This offense is based around outside zone running plays, which are typically most effective when run from under center. But Wilson is at his best in the shotgun, which has forced another departure from the McVay philosophy. In 2020, the Rams ranked 30th in shotgun usage, according to Sports Info Solutions. Through Wilson’s first five starts before the finger injury this season, the Seahawks ranked 16th and had already called more shotgun runs than Los Angeles had in all of last year.
Sunday’s game was a microcosm of Seattle’s disjointed offense. Due to the finger injury, Wilson was unable to take a snap from under center, so Waldon had to use pistol formations to call the concepts he’d typically run from under center. That limited what he could call—especially in the run game—which might explain why Seattle was forced to abandon the ground attack early on.
The offense we saw in Green Bay was not the offense Waldron was brought in to run. And I’m not sure there’s an easy fix to this problem. This scheme, as designed, is a terrible fit for Wilson’s game, so it might require another change at coordinator to get the talented quarterback back to playing at an elite level. A coaching change certainly helped for Rodgers, who had regressed as a passer during the last years of the Mike McCarthy era but was revived by Matt LaFleur’s hiring in 2019. After one season in LaFleur’s quarterback-friendly offense, which is also an offshoot of the McVay system, the Packers star got back to an MVP. In return, the Packers coach made his own adjustments and allowed Rodgers to take more ownership before the snap than he may have for a less experienced quarterback.
But Rodgers’s game was a better fit for this specific type of offense. In order to find a similar middle ground, Wilson would have to dramatically alter the way he plays the position. That seems unlikely at this point in his career. And it would be awfully foolish to ask Wilson, who has been one of the very best quarterbacks since entering the league in 2012, to change for a rookie offensive coordinator with no track record of success. Finding a new play-caller is a lot easier than finding a new quarterback, after all.
In the end, talent will always get its way. The Packers have given Rodgers everything he’s asked for since he first made his issues with the organization public. The Seahawks have tried to do the same for Wilson. Whether either effort will be enough remains to be seen, but this much is clear: Last offseason’s drama is getting a sequel.