Statistics to Watch

TucsonClip · Post #1 » by **TucsonClip** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:09 am

I posted this on another forum, but wanted to generate some discussion here as well.

We all had a feeling that losing Gentry was going to come back to haunt us. It absolutely has so far this year. Not so much that our offense is ugly, but more so it isnt the best in the league, nor as efficient thus far.

Last year Gentry turned us into the league's top offense. There was ball movement, cuts, flare screens, pin downs and all sorts of action. I know the sample size is small right now, which really needs to be stated, but the offense does look different. Attribute that to whatever you want right now, because it is hard to prove any plausible theory right before Christmas.

That said, here are a few statistics for us to take a look at. Keep in mind I am not drawing any conclusions from these stats yet, but we should be aware of them moving forward and see how they develop.

Post #2 » by **QRich3** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:46 pm

A few thoughts on those:

We weren't a top 3 offense this time last year either. Checking NBA.com stats, through the first 15 games in November last year we had an ORtg of 107.7, 3 points per 100 better than this year so far, but still only good enough for 4th in the league. This year, we were 8th after the San Antonio game, down to 12th now after the last couple of days games. We are worse, but not extremely worse. Conclusion: it's early and we had a few bad games in a row, I'd still bet my car that we end up top 5 this year. On the other hand, we were 14th on defense after the first month last season with a Drtg of 101.6. After 7 games this season, we're 21st this year, with a Drtg of 104.7 We've regressed on both sides, but I'm more worried about defense to be honest.

Paul's touches per game and passing stats are pretty similar to last few years from him, he's led the league on those since they started tracking it. Kemba ended up with more touches than him last year, but that was only after his injury and Blake's ascent in usage after January last year. Which is the main change from last year from what I see, Blake is getting the ball a bit more and shooting slightly more. Other than that, most statistics are pretty similar. Griffin ended up 3rd in elbow touches last year behind Gasol and Love. He's second this year behind Gasol, probably because Love plays with Lebron now. Not a radical change here either.

DJ allowing 50% at the rim is not a good look. He ended up allowing 49.8% last year, but that's because this time last year he was allowing like 65%, and he slowly brought the percentages down as the season progressed. The fact that he again started bad is not good news, and compared to other defensive anchors around the league he's not looking good (Hibbert 35.1%, Asik 39.5%, Cousins 39.7%, Andersen 41.2%, Noah 43.2%, M.Gasol 43.2%, Howard 43.6%, Duncan and Ibaka 44.3%, Bogut 45.8%, etc.). As a team, we're allowing teams to shoot 70% at the rim, worst in the league and nearly 20% worse than the Indiana Pacers. Twenty percent more!!

The principles of the defense are good, we're not allowing many corner threes, second least in the league (though the ones we're allowing they're shooting at 42%), and we're not allowing many layups (5th least in the league) or shots at the rim (3rd least in the league). But again, the shots we're allowing, opponents are shooting at crazy percentages. We're allowing opponents to shoot 52.6 eFG%, 6th worst in the league, and we're fouling like crazy (our FT/FGA rate is worst in the league tied with the Knicks).

Like you say, it's early and most of these things will correct themselves with time and better execution, but some things are very alarming. Specially defensive stuff, since we're allowing the right kind of shots (midrange and top of the key 3PTs), but we're allowing them to shoot at a crazy rate and fouling too much. Which might point to the right defensive system but not good enough defensive players, as most of us suspected. If this keeps going on, it might be time to re-think roster composition.

The catch and shoot numbers will improve as time passes too, Redick is not gonna shoot 20% all season like he's done in several games this far, and he's the main culprit of those, I'm guessing.

The drives per game statistic worries me a little more, specially Chris Paul. He's averaging 4.7 drives per game and scoring only on 23.1% of those. Down from 5.6 drives per game at 51.6% last year. And it worries me cause watching the games it looks like he's not getting at the rim as comfortably as he did on years prior, and he's probably the only guy on our team that can get to the rim and generate offense that way (Crawford can too, but let's be honest, he's not gonna generate anything else than a shot for himself).

TucsonClip · Post #3 » by **TucsonClip** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:45 pm

I think the defense has looked much improved the last 6 quarters. The week off prior to the Suns game on Saturday will hopefully be telling on both sides of the ball. I don't mind DJ allowing 50% at the rim right now, because he clearly is back into "jumping mode" going after every block and pump fake he can, which was a big problem in the past.

I think Griffin should be the one leading the team in drives toward the basket. No matter if in isolation on the wing (which we haven't seen much of thus far) or attacking off pump fakes and pick and roll, Blake needs to put more pressure on defenses.

Again, it is still too early to make much out of some of these numbers, but the defense, like you said, is telling via these statistics.

Post #4 » by **QRich3** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:49 pm

TucsonClip wrote:I don't mind DJ allowing 50% at the rim right now, because he clearly is back into "jumping mode" going after every block and pump fake he can, which was a big problem in the past.

That is kinda what worries me though! He should know by now that he can't be doing that stuff, and like someone said in another post here, I think it was Quake Griffin, they should be like the Spurs were at the start of last year, pissed off and hungry to prove that they shouldn't have lost the series that sent them home!! the fact that they seem like they're just chillin and not paying attention to detail scares me more than any of these numbers, and DJ has been particularly guilty of it this year.

TucsonClip · Post #5 » by **TucsonClip** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:49 pm

QRich3 wrote:
TucsonClip wrote:I don't mind DJ allowing 50% at the rim right now, because he clearly is back into "jumping mode" going after every block and pump fake he can, which was a big problem in the past.

That is kinda what worries me though! He should know by now that he can't be doing that stuff, and like someone said in another post here, I think it was Quake Griffin, they should be like the Spurs were at the start of last year, pissed off and hungry to prove that they shouldn't have lost the series that sent them home!! the fact that they seem like they're just chillin and not paying attention to detail scares me more than any of these numbers, and DJ has been particularly guilty of it this year.

I think its a combination of multiples things. Some guys still need to get into game shape, Griffin was sick for 2 games, Hawes is hurt and on a minutes restriction, Barnes cant hit a shot and was sent to the bench, and any lineup with Crawford at SF is going to get hammered defensively.

Onto the Spurs comment, sure that would be nice. Blake and DJ arent at that level defensively, to just kick off a season and go on a big winning streak. Least we forget, last season was the first in DJ's career where he saw extended minutes, especially in the 4th quarter. Blake has a long way to go defensively.

The new staff, adding in some new players, Griffin's back issues this summer and year 2 of Rivers' system, no reliable SF on the roster. All these things were not conducive to starting off hot early. I mean if Redick, Crawford and Barnes aren't in a shooting slump we are looking much better to start the season.

If we come out flat on Saturday and cant defend and there is no motion on offense, then I will become a bit more concerned.

nickhx2 · Post #6 » by **nickhx2** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:16 pm

good to see you posting again, tuscon.

there's a strong narrative by some people that mike woodson is the cause of a lot of our offensive issues. what are your thoughts on this in relation to some of the statistics you cited?

TucsonClip · Post #7 » by **TucsonClip** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:41 pm

nickhx2 wrote:good to see you posting again, tuscon.

there's a strong narrative by some people that mike woodson is the cause of a lot of our offensive issues. what are your thoughts on this in relation to some of the statistics you cited?

Thanks, good to see some familiar faces here. Im doing my best to hop around from forum to forum each day.

I'm not exactly sure who to blame our offensive woes on other than Rivers, and us just flat out missing good looks. Obviously, losing Gentry was a big blow.

Go back and watch us throughout last season. We had Redick flying around the floor coming off screens, pin downs, flares and running secondary pick and roll action with DJ on the weak side. Granted it is still early this season, but Redick's movement has been stagnated. We obviously cant run our floppy action anymore, as we did with Redick and Dudley, because Barnes cant shoot and that isn't Crawford's game.

Blake is settling on those jumpers and needs to attack more, but we also have seen less wing iso play from Blake, something Gentry emphasized. Blake needs to attack the rim more and I would love to see him iso on the wing.

Again, not sure if this is Woodson's doing, but we know for a fact the problems do stem from not having Gentry to put an emphasis on fluidity, motion and secondary action. That is why I am really excited to see the game on Saturday. We have no excuse to come out flat, have poor rotations or a stagnant offense.

TucsonClip · Post #8 » by **TucsonClip** » Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:00 pm

Some updated stats to keep an eye on:

Blake Griffin

Effective field-goal percentage numbers:

*Barnes 43 points over career-high and 59 points over average
*Paul 2 points under career-high and 22 points over average (career-high 3PTr by 62 points, career-low FTr by 14)
*Redick 39 points over career-high and 50 points over average

These three are shooting the lights out, but is it sustainable? Our offense is creating plenty of open looks, so that bodes well, but I still think we need to score more around the rim. Blake might be saving himself for the punishment of the playoffs, but I dont think we can rely on creating open jumpers in a 7 game series.

mattd13 · Post #9 » by **mattd13** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:14 am

I think early on dj was not there. however in the last few games he has been much better. I see the problem as blake getting beat to the basket and cp3 gambling to much and getting beat to the basket. I think these things can improve. matt is playing very well and overall the team is better. when jj is scoring the team is very good. hopefully he will have a career year.

TucsonClip · Post #10 » by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:31 am

Sorry, forgot to address that the numbers I listed above were for individual effective field-goal percentages

Post #11 » by **QRich3** » Tue Mar 3, 2015 11:53 am

I didn't know where to put this, so I'm bumping this thread.

Jeremias Engelmann, the creator of RAPM and ESPN's RPM has been releasing some of his stats for this year lately, and there's a couple of our players among the surprises he tweeted out:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/572330834251931648[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/572331691651534848[/tweet]

Obviously it's not a ranking of the best players in the league, but his single year RAPM has been one of the most reliable stats for role players' low key +/- production, and it's weird to see Barnes doing that well in it. I've actually been thinking that Barnes' defense had regressed quite a bit this season, but stuff like this makes me wonder if I have to pay more attention. Also surprising to see Redick as a top 40 player, since in years before this, his defense made him score really bad in this metric, like bottom of the league bad.

Post #12 » by **og15** » Wed Mar 4, 2015 12:53 am

I've really been impressed with James Johnson's transformation to interior player and to doing less which has become more. I'm most impressed with him shooting 80.5% inside 3 feet, 15% higher than his career average and also taking 52.6% of his FGA inside 3 feet, 8% higher than his career average.