What will it take for Ballmer to admit that the GM/Coach Doc experiment has failed?

[og15]

I think Messina is being groomed to replace Pop when he retires, so I don't think he's leaving. Certainly a very intriguing prospect though.

[QRich3]

Yeah, although calling a 57 year old man with the vast coaching experience and success he's had a prospect, and talking about grooming him, as Arnovitz points out, sounds a bit weird. I can see him jumping ship to another team if a good opportunity arises. He might be pushing 70 when Pop retires lol

[og15]

Lol, that's funny because I wanted to add a caveat that he isn't truly being "groomed" in the regular sense we'd think of it, but I think there's an understanding that he's there to replace Pop which is why he might not be looking to go somewhere else. There's an organizational consistency that would certainly make me want to be in a place like that if I'm him as opposed to other places where there are coaching (and GM) carousels and where the management might not support you the same way.

[Neddy]

so much uncertainties surrounding this ball club after this season...

we may or may not have the same HC.

we may or may not have CP.

we may or may not have Blake.

for each possible combinations of events that could take place before the next season opener, we could be a contender, playoff fodder, lottery aiming rebuilding team, or a roster full of rejects not too unlike of mid to late 90s.

when does our lease expire? big boy Steve should build us a brand new arena away from the fLakers first. whether we keep this team or not, we need a new home that is our own, and ours only.

[nickhx2]

sure will be some offseason, that's for sure.

[QRich3]

To be honest, the most likely thing by far is that everything remains pretty much the same, with Doc as the coach/POBO, Paul, Blake and JJ on the team, and the only change being a new set of veteran minimums to fill the bench. With a trade of Austin/Jamal + picks for Melo at most.

By the way, just as he did with the future coaches article posted above, Kevin Arnovitz has just done a nice piece on future GM's, polling current executives to gauge who are the most likely to run a team in the near future. Here's the list:

Mike Zarren, Boston Celtics assistant general manager/team counsel
[...]
Tommy Sheppard, Washington Wizards senior vice president of basketball operations
[...]
Troy Weaver, Oklahoma City Thunder vice president and assistant general manager
[...]
Mike Winger, Oklahoma City Thunder assistant general manager/team counsel
[...]
Brian Wright, San Antonio Spurs assistant general manager
[...]
Trent Redden, Cleveland Cavaliers senior vice president of basketball operations
[...]
Trajan Langdon, Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/presents18995570/nba-front-office-prospects-watch

[og15]

That might end up being the situation. There might be a little wrench thrown in there, and I'm not in any way saying that this is what I desire or it is my preferred option, but I think we might see a renewed pursuit of and acquisition of Carmelo for Rivers/Crawford. Crawford becomes less undesirable now that he's basically got a year and $4 million the next year left.

Redick would not return though, too expensive, and the team goes for more defense at SG.

Next season we might end up seeing:

Chris Paul
Defensive SG
Carmelo Anthony
Blake Griffin
DeAndre Jordan

That might be our reality. Those 4 will combine to make $115 million+. At least let us put that out there and see it as a real possibility, so that no one dies of a heart attack if this is what happens.

[QRich3]

What defensive SG is there for what we can pay though? ( mini-MLE at most). Is there one that's a better option than paying JJ $20M a year? Doubt Tony Allen will be available at that price (specially to us), and the next best option might probably be DeAndre Liggins or Brandon Rush, and that's being optimistic enough.

[og15]

I guess you just move Mbah to SG. If you add JJ at $20M, your starters will be costing almost $140M, and the luxury tax mark is $122M, don't think even Ballmer wants to pay that much luxury tax.

In general, re-signing all of them will likely be more about the luxury tax than anything else. Even if you convinced Paul to take the 30% max instead (probably won't), that's still only saving you $5M on the year.

The other hope would then be to sign and trade JJ without similar contract coming back, but that's harder.

Thabo Sefolosha is a FA too though. Options do always end up popping up, players always fall through the cracks. For the bench, Jodie Meeks might fall through and that gives you a shooter who defends decently too. Brandon Rush is also an option like you said. Milwaukee probably likes him now but Tony Snell could fall through.

I don't think the aim will be "better" option but cheaper option that still fits. Wesley Johnson should also be traded for a 2nd if possible, don't know if anyone thinks much of him anymore, not that they ever did in recent years. Maybe you also hope he bounces back and is even just as good as last season which wasn't that great but much better.

[Captain Ballmer]

That might end up being the situation. There might be a little wrench thrown in there, and I'm not in any way saying that this is what I desire or it is my preferred option, but I think we might see a renewed pursuit of and acquisition of Carmelo for Rivers/Crawford. Crawford becomes less undesirable now that he's basically got a year and $4 million the next year left.

Redick would not return though, too expensive, and the team goes for more defense at SG.

Next season we might end up seeing:

Chris Paul
Defensive SG
Carmelo Anthony
Blake Griffin
DeAndre Jordan

That might be our reality. Those 4 will combine to make $115 million+. At least let us put that out there and see it as a real possibility, so that no one dies of a heart attack if this is what happens.

There are some names below that I would like to see us getting for MLE. Melo and one of those guys would be more balanced than Luc&JJ tandem on the wing. However, that would still be a second round exit team under Doc's tenure.

Thabo Sefolosha
Justin Holiday
Tony Snell
Jonathon Simmons
Ian Clark.

[QRich3]

Snell and Simmons are definitely gonna get 8 figures a year, so out of our price range. Thabo I would think will be out of our range too. I guess one of Meeks, Holiday or Rush could fall to the mini-MLE, but I wouldn't be overly excited to have one of those guys as a starter playing big minutes.

All of this reminds me of this time last year, when we were discussing guys like Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Jon Leuer, to get with our MLE/BAE, and talking about resigning Luc and Wes for the minimum. In the end, Wes took our full MLE, Luc the BAE, and all of those other guys got 8 figure salaries from other teams. So before we disappoint ourselves again, I'd multiply any contract prediction by 3 or 4

But yeah, I get the problems of resigning JJ to the salary he deserves, paying $140M just for the starters is steep enough, before you even start making calculations about the crazy percentages that the repeater tax adds. Even for a guy like Ballmer that's always somewhat close to the top in the Forbes list, pissing money away like that is a good way to end up broke. They actually did a good job in the last CBA to avoid the wealthiest owners buying their way to a championship, even if it's biting us in the ass right now.

I know it's still early to start talking about this, but I'd try to look for scenarios where we trade DJ for a C in his rookie contract and a good young wing.

[og15]

That might end up being the case if they went that way. I like DJ, but he has the most close to replaceable skills on the team. Of course the not easily replaceable "skill" is his health. They would get worse at C, but it would be a compromise. Whether it is a good one, and whether any of that plan is good, that's another discussion we can have if it comes closer to being reality. Right now I'll just say that this is a real possibility, so let's get ready.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Ballmer is probably worth close to $30 billion dollars now. A few million here and there should mean nothing to him

[QRich3]

Ballmer is probably worth close to $30 billion dollars now. A few million here and there should mean nothing to him

I though that way until I looked into how the repeater tax works, a tax that we've already been paying for a few years. It adds crazy percentages that grow each year you pay it, so we're not talking about a million here and there, if they resign everyone to their market price we might be talking about hundreds each season and growing.

The Clippers have already been one of the few teams that lost money last year btw, so it's not like he's a cheap owner.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Ballmer is probably worth close to $30 billion dollars now. A few million here and there should mean nothing to him

I though that way until I looked into how the repeater tax works, a tax that we've already been paying for a few years. It adds crazy percentages that grow each year you pay it, so we're not talking about a million here and there, if they resign everyone to their market price we might be talking about hundreds each season and growing.

The Clippers have already been one of the few teams that lost money last year btw, so it's not like he's a cheap owner.

Not saying he is- just that when you are worth as much as him, what does a few hundred mill even mean to him. It's like me spending $100

[nickhx2]

not saying i know any wealthy people or how they think, but every profile i've read about filthy rich people indicates them being smart spenders.

but only way we'll know is when we actually see him sign the checks.

that said with the way the repeater tax works, i can't imagine he'll be too interested in dealing with that.

[og15]

Yea, a lot of rich people are in part rich because they do value money. So even if they are billionaires, they still don't think it light to just spend an extra $100 million if they don't have to.

[wco81]

Yea, a lot of rich people are in part rich because they do value money. So even if they are billionaires, they still don't think it light to just spend an extra $100 million if they don't have to.

Well in Ballmer's case, he knew Bill Gates in college before Gates dropped out.

Ballmer didn't have to pinch pennies and invest money. He got stock options and awards that turned into tens of billions.

Though oddly, Gates was infamous for using coupons and flying coach when he was worth tens of billions, on paper at least. Eventually his lifestyle changed but long after he'd gotten his options (though maybe not fully vested).

Paul Allen also came into a big windfall but it sounds like he's t interested in paying big luxury taxes Blazers will look to move some of their bad contracts.

[MartinToVaught]

Will Ballmer finally wake up when Doc finishes blowing this series? He got thoroughly outcoached in yet another playoff game, especially down the stretch. And we all know he's not going to make adjustments.

[madmaxmedia]

If we made any sort of moves that give even a glimmer of contending hope (say trading for Melo), I think Ballmer pays what it takes to re-sign JJ.

But if it ends up being the same core team again, do you really want to pay through the nose for JJ (whatever the total real cost would be- $50 or $60M?) I just know the repeater tax is brutal, where you end up paying multiple dollars for every dollar in over-the-cap salary.