Kevin Love; and the art of roster building in the NBA

[dockingsched]

You keep lumping in all superstars when there's been a clear distinction made between those that are free to go wherever they way and those coming of a rookie deal facing restricted free agency.

And you keep lumping all superstars as money chasers, and if that's the case, how will the Lakers ever steal a superstar that isn't ours when their original teams can offer more money?

Not at all. All I wrote off was the idea that a team had to have a winning culture to lure a superstar away. I don't think that's true at all. For me it comes down to the money and to the assets a team has to surround a player with going forward.

[Slava]

If by no significant difference you mean $5 mil then yes and this is in the current cba, if a future cba removes the restriction on first max deals then that could be a lot more.

Uh, yeah, exactly, which is why Anthony Davis might WANT to take the qualifying offer in 2016 because of the new CBA that takes in effect in 2017. So the timing is actually as good as it gets. He may not want to lock in that max deal under the current CBA which almost all agree has been a lot more punitive towards players.

Other than that hornets are well set upon making a playoff run as early as next season with a core of Asik, Davis, holiday and tyreke plus anything you can get out of Eric Gordon's corpse.

"Well set on making a playoff run?" Really? And I'm getting knocked for delusional.

Who do the lakers have outside of randle and a soon to be free agent in Lin? We need to build a lot more before we become an attractive proposition for someone to take the drastic step of accepting a QO to play for us let alone interest a team like pelicans to trade him.

Well, sure. no kidding. I mean what are we talking about here? I've simply been arguing that 1) championships are won by the very best players 2) we should try to acquire the very best players.

For that, I've been getting a lot of flack, which is hilarious. Look, I don't call people who want Stephenson and Bledsoe's idiots. But apparently I'm delusional for thinking a GM should be ready to land great players, not middling ones.

Yet all our championships (and nearly all titles) have been won by Hall of Famers.

So what's more delusional? Thinking we can build a championship team with what exactly?

That's what the Lakers' focus should be right now, farming talent and trading up and gathering assets, for the best players in the league if and when they become available and not settling on overpriced mediocre players. Another reason why I was so opposed to picking up Boozer and letting Bazemore go. The Lakers' only focus right now is to start making smart investments and making them grow. But if Lin brings a bit of Linsanity back, Randle develops into one of the best young forwards, Kelly becomes a reliable stretch four, Hill proves he can stay healthy, Clarkson shows he can carve up NBA defenses, suddenly our team is full of attractive assets. As early as this year.

It's not totally delusional but at the same time its as good a strategy to bank on as betting your 401k on the craps table in Vegas. There's a chance you might come back a millionaire but there's equal probability of ending up homeless.

Really? How much work goes into gambling? This is called hard work. Putting together a collection of assets and talents for a payoff a year, even two-three years later? That's hard work.

And another aspect where your analogy fails is that the Lakers aren't risking being homeless. Money isn't an issue; cap and asset management is. And there is no opportunity cost because there currently are no players worth maxing out on in the next 2 years. As long as the Lakers don't throw another 50m extension at Kobe, they will have plenty of cap flexibility to land max contract(s) and keep key pieces.

There's nothing delusional about targeting the best players in the league, regardless of current availability. It's called doing your job, and some GM's do it better than others.

And what exactly is this site for? To talk about those things.

I'm simply going on the working assumption of building a winner.
Some have accepted or expected mediocrity, and that's your right too.

Some are still butt hurt about Kobe's contract. We're gonna suck, waah.

I'm excited about our team, for the present and the future. I think we can make some noise this year. I guess I'm delusional. I believe we can get the very best players in the future by making smart moves. I guess that makes me delusional.

Personally I like discussing how we can get better as a team as well as imagining scenarios to get back into championship contention. Real quiet on that front around here, but there sure is a lot of bitching.

This is aimlessly funny because you keep stating all the right facts yet come to wrong conclusions.

A couple of things here.

1. Bird rights are sacred in this league. Teams want them because it gives them control over their stars and stars want them because of the three greatest words on professional sports, more guaranteed money.

Lebron on his 4th contract would take the gamble of signing a 2 year deal but AD on his first max deal would get as much money guaranteed as he can.

Worst case scenario pelicans allow him to sign an extension with a load of funny player options in case he wants to opt out and sign for more on the new cba.

There is no way either side would entertain entering unrestricted free agency.

2. For all the ways you tell us how we have lost ambition your solution to contention is Get Anthony Davis. How? Doesn't matter!

If getting him was so easy every team would have two of them.

The way cap is structured half the teams in the league will have max cap space every season. Contracts are shorter and teams are smarter about not giving away long term money. So you are competing with half the league for one franchise player that May or may not enter free agency.

Now figure out how implausible banking on those odds are.

[Sedale Threatt]

That doesn't even bother me. Given our location, I'll take our chances with anybody for a shot at a player like Davis. You have to. Rather, the fact that he'll be restricted makes it a non-starter.

The only reason you're seeing guys like Drummond and Blesdoe balk is because they're not getting the offers they want. But that's not going to be the case with Davis; the Pelicans will give them every penny they can, as soon as they can in the form of an extension. The chances he even hits restricted free agency are slim to none, let alone actually leaves.

History shows that players who get max offer sheets coming off rookie contracts almost always take it in order to get that first big pay day in the bank. Even Love signed his despite being shorted a year by Khan. Signing a one-year qualifying offer is a huge risk -- especially when you've already had a major injury like Davis.

I can't even think of the last time somebody did that off the top of my head, and really the only reason to do that would be because you think it's worth your long-term financial interest, because your original team isn't giving you the cash you think you deserve. That obviously isn't going to be the case for Davis, so what's his motivation to take such a huge risk? Winning?

If the Pelicans can stay healthy, they don't have a bad lineup at all with him, Anderson, Evans, Holiday and Gordon. (And I forgot Asik, too.) All those guys except Asik are 25 or under. So if I'm Davis, I'm thinking I can have my cake and eat it too. If not, it's only four years, and then he can go wherever the hell he wants after stashing a nice little nest egg in the bank.

[milesfides]

It doesn't matter what the percentages are. Any time a superstar leaves, it's something remarkable, and to try to quantify any of those as some sort of random act of probability is simply inane.

What percentage could one put on Pau Gasol, a likely hall of famer, one of the best big men in his prime, being traded for Kwame, Marc, Javaris C., McKie, and a couple first rounders?

28 teams bitched holy hell about that one, but it didn't matter. We had the right package of assets at the right time for Memphis. That's the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.

How did the Heat land Lebron and Bosh, two of the best players in the league, to take paycuts to join their other best player in the league, essentially having 2 of the best top 5 and another top 10 player, all in their primes? Doesn't matter, they had the cap space at the right time and the right asset (Wade). Doesn't matter how likely it was, the fact that it happened is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.

Lebron's case is an outlier of itself, you have arguably the best player, in his early prime, take less money to leave his team? How many times did that happen? What was the probability in that?

Had the Lakers not landed Gasol, the Pistons would have landed Kobe-freaking-Bryant in his prime for Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, and a first rounder. What would have been the calculation in that.

What's the probability that Kevin Durant turns down more money to come to a worse team? Or Russell Westbrook? Or any top player in his prime? UNLIKELY.

There' s a reason why none of you have volunteered any "likely" scenarios of the Lakers landing superstars. You know why? Because they're ALL UNLIKELY.

From Kevin Durant to Anthony Davis, yes, ALL UNLIKELY.

Is that what we're arguing about here? Because never did I say, oh, we're gonna land Anthony Davis woo-hoo! I said we SHOULD target him and every other top player, because that's a requirement for a championship team - and also we have nothing to lose.

That's the only reality that matters.

And really, spare me the cba rules, thanks, we all know where to find that website! Players like money! Oh really! Thanks for that insight into human nature!

"The Pelicans are going to be great"
-Really? Because you calculated that probability? ESPN forecasts them as 10th next season. Powerhouse!

"The Pelicans can offer him the most money, why would he leave!"
-Because there's going to be another CBA, right after his qualifying offer, which will most certainly be more favorable to players. Also, under the current CBA, the diff between his qualifying offer and first year max is negligible, and short of getting decapitated he's going to get a max from every team that has the capspace in '17.

"He won't leave his first big deal on the table!"
-I've argued this too much ad nauseam with Kyrie Irving, and I'll just refer to the many credible reports over the past year that yes, this was a legitimate threat to the rule.

Hey, I'm not the one saying what's probable or not. Just that the Lakers should be preparing for them. You guys seem to keep acting like the "probability" is negligible enough to dismiss. Considering there's a very short list of championship caliber superstars in their prime, I would say the only non-delusional approach of a GM is to take each one pretty damn seriously.

The only sensible approach for a team aiming to win championships (presumably the Lakers) is to draw a firm line and not commit to non-superstars, and continue to be patient, farm talent, gather assets, keep trading up, until the exceptional opportunity shows.

Doesn't matter what the imagined "probability" of stealing a player is. Their current availability doesn't matter. Exceptions do happen, and when they do, the team that has prepared for the unlikely takes advantage.

Lastly, the fact that none of you have posed your own "realistic" "probable" scenarios of landing superstars is very telling. I'll just leave it at that.

[snaquille oatmeal]

while the Lakers have in the past gotten away with steals of superstar from other teams and have rebuilt from mediocrity up in the past, we are now in a new era.

the new CBA has changed the game. we no longer have the space that the Jerrys had to work with. Jim and Mitch are navigating in uncharted waters. a lot of people believe that in order to rebuild you have to start from the bottom (high lotto, accumulate assets, luck, cap space) others still believe in the old school (get a good supporting cast and then steal a supper star).

i'm of the opinion that a combination of the two is the way to go. Cleveland got "lucky" with winning two lottos in a row and having a history with Lebron who happens to be the best player now. I don't what the answer is, but we have to figure it out.

[lakersin4]

while the Lakers have in the past gotten away with steals of superstar from other teams and have rebuilt from mediocrity up in the past, we are now in a new era.

the new CBA has changed the game. we no longer have the space that the Jerrys had to work with. Jim and Mitch are navigating in uncharted waters. a lot of people believe that in order to rebuild you have to start from the bottom (high lotto, accumulate assets, luck, cap space) others still believe in the old school (get a good supporting cast and then steal a supper star).

i'm of the opinion that a combination of the two is the way to go. Cleveland got "lucky" with winning two lottos in a row and having a history with Lebron who happens to be the best player now. I don't what the answer is, but we have to figure it out.

I think we're in a great situation to reload.. We have a chance of being a playoff team this year & still having nearly 30M in cap space.. Marc, Monroe, Asik, Rondo, Thompson, Leonard.. We might be able to get back to contending very soon.

[LLcoleJ]

I will just say this.

I feel like Laker fans are trying to get away from the Kobe Fan Boi stigma, while trying to forecast the future based on the CBA, by the book, etc.. These are the rules now and we are helpless.

It takes alot of "fun" out of the board when everyone get's so serious about what will and what won't happen in the coming years. Its like the word" delusional"has taken on a life of it's own and everyone want's to distance themselves from thinking too big, but if anything does happen it would be like winning the lottery and everyone is happy anyway. It's the easy side to take and you don't loose your 'rep" on this board.

Say the right thing always and get those And1's.

We are a fan base that has had some great seasons and we can all agree that we want to get back to that.But hey, this board and posts that MilesFides are making is what we used to do here. We always aimed for the top and we more times than not landed on our feet.

I get the CBA is restrictive and it makes it more difficult these days. But teams are built in all different ways these days and the NBA is a league that is always changing. The moment that we as a fan base stop being " delusional" and the moment the Lakers stop trying to land those players is the moment when this team becomes just another team in the league that prods along.. than it not the Laker way.

The guys going back and forth in this thread are all smart guys ( Miles, Slava, Doc, etc) we have all e-known each other for years.

To call people's ideas delusional and then referring to the CBA.... changes the culture of this board from an exciting, fun thinking board to a dull board room full of middling managers trying to 1 up each other with out going out on any limbs.

Our team is what it is now and we have to roll with it.But I for one hope that our management is doing exactly what Miles is laying out. Things change and move quickly in the NBA and you need to be ready to pounce.

I am glad to see Miles back here posting with so much passion. We have lost a lot of that.

[Pointgod]

while the Lakers have in the past gotten away with steals of superstar from other teams and have rebuilt from mediocrity up in the past, we are now in a new era.

the new CBA has changed the game. we no longer have the space that the Jerrys had to work with. Jim and Mitch are navigating in uncharted waters. a lot of people believe that in order to rebuild you have to start from the bottom (high lotto, accumulate assets, luck, cap space) others still believe in the old school (get a good supporting cast and then steal a supper star).

i'm of the opinion that a combination of the two is the way to go. Cleveland got "lucky" with winning two lottos in a row and having a history with Lebron who happens to be the best player now. I don't what the answer is, but we have to figure it out.

Cleveland landed 3 number one picks in 4 years which is literally unheard of. I'm guessing other forces other than luck were behind that. Also their fortunes were based on a petulant superstar with zero competitive spirit abandoning a team that just came off a trip to the finals. I wouldn't use then as a model for anything. as much as I can't stand his smugness Morey is a good example of building a championship team. Acquire assets, draft well, sign a young undervalued player with all star potential, sign a superstar. His problem is that he only sees players as assets and has little regard for chemistry or coaching. Lance, Monroe or Bledsoe could have been our youngin with all Star potential but that ship has sailed.

[crazyeights]

Only Monroe's ship hasn't, as he'll be an unrestricted FA next year. Lance didn't fit with this team once we got Lin, and Bledsoe still might take the QO. The ships have not sailed.

[Dr Aki]

Only Monroe's ship hasn't, as he'll be an unrestricted FA next year. Lance didn't fit with this team once we got Lin, and Bledsoe still might take the QO. The ships have not sailed.

those ships rely on those players forcing a trade to the lakers

i haven't seed much of any inkling that those guys are going to try that

even then, i don't think we'd agree to the type of contracts they're looking for

[crazyeights]

Forcing a trade? Monroe (and potentially Bledsoe) will be UFAs next year.

The point is the Lakers would have been stupid to offer a contract that would have been matched. Instead they are waiting to see if negotiations really sour and they can be nabbed next summer.

IMO, a healthy Bledsoe is absolutely worth Parsons/Hayward type money.

[Slava]

The guys going back and forth in this thread are all smart guys ( Miles, Slava, Doc, etc) we have all e-known each other for years.

To call people's ideas delusional and then referring to the CBA.... changes the culture of this board from an exciting, fun thinking board to a dull board room full of middling managers trying to 1 up each other with out going out on any limbs.

Our team is what it is now and we have to roll with it.But I for one hope that our management is doing exactly what Miles is laying out. Things change and move quickly in the NBA and you need to be ready to pounce.

I am glad to see Miles back here posting with so much passion. We have lost a lot of that.

Good post, JB, I did not change the title but I'll edit it out as it does not reflect the quality and nature of conversation in this topic.

I'm sure the title change was not prompted by Miles' posts but the other guy who suddenly appeared to make one post to stroke his ego and pseudo-intellect.

[snaquille oatmeal]

The guys going back and forth in this thread are all smart guys ( Miles, Slava, Doc, etc) we have all e-known each other for years.

To call people's ideas delusional and then referring to the CBA.... changes the culture of this board from an exciting, fun thinking board to a dull board room full of middling managers trying to 1 up each other with out going out on any limbs.

Our team is what it is now and we have to roll with it.But I for one hope that our management is doing exactly what Miles is laying out. Things change and move quickly in the NBA and you need to be ready to pounce.

I am glad to see Miles back here posting with so much passion. We have lost a lot of that.

Good post, JB, I did not change the title but I'll edit it out as it does not reflect the quality and nature of conversation in this topic.

I'm sure the title change was not prompted by Miles' posts but the other guy who suddenly appeared to make one post to stroke his ego and pseudo-intellect.

as the self appointed old fart class clown, the the name change was brilliant, but yeah a new tittle needs to reflect the quality here. Kevin Love? who dat?

[EArl]

[TyCobb]

Alot of commotion for explaining RFA

[Pointgod]

Only Monroe's ship hasn't, as he'll be an unrestricted FA next year. Lance didn't fit with this team once we got Lin, and Bledsoe still might take the QO. The ships have not sailed.

Monroe maybe but my gut feeling is that Bledsoe gets resigned. Lance I disagree with completely because not only did his contract fit into our plans I'd prioritize Lance over Jeremy Lin anyway of the week. Besides it's better to have these guys now and let them build chemistry with Randle and Kobe over the next two seasons then expect us to plug them in next season and be a playoff team. Next years free agents don't excite me other than Rondo and who knows where he ends up

[crazyeights]

Can't wait for this offseason to be over with so people can stop hyping up Lance Stephenson. The guy had 2752 minutes this season and still had a PER less than Eric freaking Gordon.

Not only that, but the dude just doesn't play good team basketball and is a large part of why that Pacers team rotted from the inside out.

If in 2 to 3 years, he's still desirable, we can always make a run at him again. He'll be 27 and entering his "prime."

[Sedale Threatt]

Yeah, I wouldn't touch Stephenson. I don't like his game at all, and he seems like a loose cannon.

[crazyeights]

Yeah, I wouldn't touch Stephenson. I don't like his game at all, and he seems like a loose cannon.

^That is the operative word there. A lot of guys think it's just his antics people don't like, but his actual game cries Chucker...the blowing in the ears stuff is just icing on the cow pie.

[Sedale Threatt]

Yeah, I wouldn't touch Stephenson. I don't like his game at all, and he seems like a loose cannon.

^That is the operative word there. A lot of guys think it's just his antics people don't like, but his actual game cries Chucker...the blowing in the ears stuff is just icing on the cow pie.

Yeah, the fact Indiana let him walk is a huge red flag.