Julius Randle: Expectations?

[TyCobb]

You are so off I don't even know where to begin.

Where the hell were you pre-draft? Summer league is not the end all be all. My goodness.

I don't know, begin by talking about what they're doing now instead of what they did last year against college kids?

There are scouting videos that show what Randle did against NBA length in College. Give it a look.

[Slava]

Judging Randles summer league play is a moot point. He signed his contract late and only started practicing after 2 full games and out guard play was so bad that he had to handle be ball a lot and play make while basically freelancing on offense.

[milesfides]

It's not a moot point. Tell that to all the scouts and pros who are there to do exactly what I'm doing: evaluating the players in a more NBA-type setting.

I'm not saying it's the end-all. But it's what we have right now.

But dismissing it as meaningless and going backwards and relying on college performances?

Everybody is talking about projection here. It's called expectations, right? We disagree, but while you guys remain confident and worry-free, I'll remain concerned about questions that didn't get answered.

I still think he'll be a good player.

[Slava]

I have the benefit of sample size when I look at the college game, 3 summer league games which looked more like rec-ball setting means nothing to me to evaluate a player up on but to each his own I guess.

[RollingWave]

Randle's game seems a lot more likely to translate than Levine's at at the start of their career anyway.

The whole thing on if guys can do it against bigger and stronger player is usually a bigger question for perimeter players really, there's A LOT of undersized bigs that worked out perfectly fine in the league, not flying over the basket is a considerably smaller problem then actually being able to finish through contact.

Thomas Robinson is probably the most recent example of a big who is physical but seem to translated poorly so far, granted, it's still early, but my general feeling with him is that he seem to have a extremely poor understanding of his own strength and weakness, often trying wayyyy too much on the offensive end instead of sticky with what he's actually good at, he also took 3 years in College, and was horrendous in his first couple years. I guess the key with him is "slow learner" but Randle don't seem to have this issue as far as I can see.


I have some questions on Randle's game myself, but finishing through contact is definitely not one of them. if anything he's the surest thing to be able to do that in this draft. (my main worry is that his game seem to be better built for an earlier era of basketball.)

There's A LOT of freak athlete who isn't very good in the NBA level because they can't finish through contact (or at least unwilling to .) , Gerald Green is a perfect example of this, some of the highest leap measurement in combines are guys who you will surely not associate with greatness, for example, Triston Thompson. Terrence Ross also hasn't done much, and I'm not entirely sure if Lavine is even Terrence Ross.

In judging if a big can make it in the NBA, I think 2 most obvious factor is 1. is he physical enough to stand his own in the post on both ends of the floor? and 2. does he have a good feel for the ball both on and off it ? I think in these two respect I see Randle as probably being the best bigs prospect , so he has the least bust factor outside of injury concerns.

Now, if healthy I think Emiid's ceiling is much higher, but I have a very very very hard time seeing Randle bust in non injury related situations.

[Jaykoolzboy]

Rookie year

9ppg 5rpg 48%FGP 76%FreeThrow

[Mamba Venom]

I expect our coach to give him the playing time he needs to develop. I expect to see a comfortable NBA Randle by Feb.

[crazyeights]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMwxOi4R9Pw[/youtube]

A little clarity for those who are skeptical of Randle's Summer League performance. He graded his performance a "D"...attributing this to being out of shape because of the previous uncertainty around his foot and whether it needed surgery.

[milesfides]

Randle's game seems a lot more likely to translate than Levine's at at the start of their career anyway.

Even if that's true, you have to look at the context within the Lakers as a team. The Lakers aren't going to be contending in the next 2 years, until they can try to steal a top 10 player. Would you rather have a lesser player who can contribute more immediately to be playoff fodder or a guy who can be a franchise player in 2 or 3 years?

The whole thing on if guys can do it against bigger and stronger player is usually a bigger question for perimeter players really, there's A LOT of undersized bigs that worked out perfectly fine in the league, not flying over the basket is a considerably smaller problem then actually being able to finish through contact.

Two words...Anthony Bennett.

And again, "worked out perfectly fine" means what...for a Carl Landry, Paul Millsap backup big man off the bench player? Or a franchise player? Because undersized bigs usually do not become franchise players. That list has got to be very, very short.

I have some questions on Randle's game myself, but finishing through contact is definitely not one of them. if anything he's the surest thing to be able to do that in this draft. (my main worry is that his game seem to be better built for an earlier era of basketball.)

There's A LOT of freak athlete who isn't very good in the NBA level because they can't finish through contact (or at least unwilling to .) , Gerald Green is a perfect example of this, some of the highest leap measurement in combines are guys who you will surely not associate with greatness, for example, Triston Thompson. Terrence Ross also hasn't done much, and I'm not entirely sure if Lavine is even Terrence Ross.

Of course he isn't, because LaVine has POINT GUARD skills. This must be incredibly hard to comprehend because people are using Zach's athleticism somehow AGAINST him. All the Gerald Green comparisons have to stop, because Gerald Green has always been a limited player (although he had a great season last year, posting a PER similar to Monta Ellis', and per36 was 20 pts, 4 brds with solid percentages).

In judging if a big can make it in the NBA, I think 2 most obvious factor is 1. is he physical enough to stand his own in the post on both ends of the floor? and 2. does he have a good feel for the ball both on and off it ? I think in these two respect I see Randle as probably being the best bigs prospect , so he has the least bust factor outside of injury concerns.

Now, if healthy I think Emiid's ceiling is much higher, but I have a very very very hard time seeing Randle bust in non injury related situations.

Nobody is calling Randle a bust. The question is, what are the expectations? And I will go back to some basic observations of him: He will not be a rim protector. As a big man, that hurts - because defense wins championships, and now you have to make sure Randle plays next to a great defensive center.

So you move to offense. Now Randle produces most of his offense from the perimeter attacking the basket. He hasn't shown to be a back-to-the-basket big man with a legit post game, nor has he shown a consistent midrange jumper. So what does that mean? It means he has a lot to work on his game.

The idea that he's the most NBA-ready - what does that mean? NBA-ready for what. To contribute? To contribute what, exactly His predominant skill in college was bullying less physical big men around the basket and using a soft touch to put the ball in the basket. Everything else he'll have to work on.

Expectations? With Carlos Boozer's addition, with Ed Davis and Ryan Kelly and Jordan Hill, all of whom have relatively established roles and skills, I expect his opportunity to be modest, which certainly doesn't help a quick adjustment to the NBA.

I do think he's going to be productive. If he sticks with his game, he can be a good sixth man like Millsap, Landry, or Lamar Odom on the championship Lakers, finishing games. He needs to make adjustments like Millsap and Odom and add a three-pointer to accommodate his natural perimeter-oriented game. Because unless he's unstoppable in the mid to high post like a Carmelo Anthony, you can't build an offense around him. So all these factors make me think role player, not franchise player. Again, we're projecting here, but we'll see soon or later. Probably later, because again, unless somebody gets injured, I don't see him getting a ton of minutes.

[crazyeights]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Lakers/status/514553204965916672[/tweet]

Who is taking his minutes now?

Ed Davis and Jordan Hill will be playing a lot of center judging from our depth chart.

Every indication coming out of Byron and the FO is that Randle will be given minutes. I don't think he's going to start over Boozer, unless Boozer really is over the hill, but I imagine he'll be utilized, featured, and brought along very intentionally. We're not going to just forget about Randle, even if he slumps. He's part of our long term strategy, either to develop as a talent to groom or an asset to trade. IMO, keeping him makes the most sense.

We went over this a lot in the month leading up to the draft, but the odds of nabbing a franchise player at 7 are extremely low. Even more so depending how high you raise the bar on the term "franchise." In my mind anyway, there are very few franchise players in the league. You can probably count the real difference makers to your team's win column and bank account on two hands, and even then there's only maybe 5 truly elite 10/10 players at any one time--max.

So after losing the lottery, I became at peace with a guy who would be a great piece to the puzzle. And when we drafted him, I hoped that worst case scenario he could turn into a 3rd player on a great team. However, I don't think that's his ceiling. He's sort of a tough one to guess at, because he is undersized for a traditional PF...but I don't think he is a traditional PF. He's got the handles and a combination of quick feet and a strong body to be a hell of a slashing big. He could develop into his own brand of point forward.

He could be a type of Charles Barkley type, someone big, fast, and strong who while "undersized" is athletic and crafty enough to score. It's like Dante Exum. When I first saw his highlights before the draft, I thought, man this kid plays way below the rim, but the more I watched, the more I realized that he can score in a lot of ways. I think Randle will find a way to score. He's got great touch and I think his jumper has time to improve (and is currently better than advertised). The way the league is going, I think a 3 pointer is a no-brainer for him in a year or two.

If I had to guess on a high-end ceiling, he could be a 20/10 guy who, if featured, can get you 4 assists.

Going along with that, one thing I don't worry about is the Lakers being able to maximize on his talent, whatever it is.

I think people make a lot of Jim and Mitch being this two-man show, but I think they still have some great minds around the league. I trust the old man Bertka to evaluate talent. I think they saw something in Randle's drive and his confidence that told them he can be special. He's a big market type personality. At 19 he's not fazed and he wants the pressure. The Lakers needed a homerun, they knew that and I'm sure if they had any doubt in their minds, they would have strongly considered trading down for a guy with potential like LaVine.

However, they didn't. They had Randle very high on their board. I'd guess as high as 4th. And that's good for him, because the higher they think of him now, the more important his development will be to the FO through his career.

Dude's in great situation to be a beast.

[TyCobb]

Against Dirk Jr. too!

Although, he had that dribble way too exposed in my opinion. A better defender would've ripped it.

[crazyeights]

HA agreed, but if you watch it, it's as if Randle tempted Kelly to go for the steal so he could drive around him. That's gonna be the advantage of his handles, quickness, and size against bigs.

[Slava]

That head fake was nice. He could learn more from Kobe.

[crazyeights]

I think it'll actually be really exciting to see a big learn from Kobe. Imagine Randle with a few of Kob's post moves at 20.

[Slava]

He's got a real scorers mentality which is what I meant to say in learning from kobe. Remains to be seen if he can be efficient like Z Bo, love or griffin or if he turns into the PF version of Sessions.

There clearly is no in between because he's not built that way with all that aggressiveness to be a role player and he doesn't have many other skills like a Taj Gibson does defensively.

I just can't t wait to see him in the NBA. He's just got great humility and very soft spoken for his age, to well represent this franchise.

[milesfides]

Really classy misquoting me about Ryan Kelly and Dirk. Grow up, kid.

[Michael Lucky]

The guy is ridiculously quick for a PF.

[Slava]

The guy is ridiculously quick for a PF.

This is why I don't understand when people call him undersized for his position. His combination of strength, skill and speed would be borderline freakish if people weren't already evaluating based on once in a decade athletes like Griffin or Lebron. If David Lee can carve an all star career out for himself, Randle surely will be more than fine getting his shot off against NBA level size.

[madmaxmedia]

My off-the-cuff hunch based on precious little study is that he seems like a high floor, low ceiling NBA player. Which is not bad for the #7 pick in the draft.

[BEazy]

All Randle needs is a consistent mid-range shot and he'll be one of the elites in no time.