Mid-Season: Our options

danfantastk32 · Post #1 » by **danfantastk32** » Sat Jan 7, 2017 10:56 pm

Well....technically we have one more game before we're halfway there...but close enough. Thought it would be a decent time to take stock of the current situation.

Our record: 14-26. Pretty brutal, but it seems good when you compare to our last couple seasons. This is an interesting place to be, because I really hate to say it....but we're two games out of the 8th spot! I mean.....what the EFFF happened to the NBA?!! You got the Cavs, the Warriors, and the Spurs. The rest is just barf. Pure barf....and don't give me Houston or Toronto. They get swept 10-straight by the Shaq-Kobe Lakers. Sadly this Spurs team prob does too (except Shaq would get bored....so 9-10). Just awful. What a sad, diluted product we have these days. Thanks salary cap.....everything's a dull-grey color. Lennon would be proud. The ruling elite, and then a butt-ton of the poor, and starving. It's got all "hammer and sickle" up in here!

Anyways...

2 games out! Do we stand a chance in hell? On the other hand...we might very well win 28ish games. Do we try and win 24......test our luck in the Lottery?? It's an interesting question, IMO. It's pretty effing unbelievable that we are in this position. If the season ended today, we would be:

7th in the Lottery. And 2-wins shy of postseason play.

SMH. 2 games from the playoffs....3 games from worst record in the West. Epic.

Alright...what say you? Can this team actually mount something like a 25-18 record the second half...and somehow amazing make the playoffs? Or would you think that going 14-28....landing us somewhere around the 5-7th spot in the Lottery is the way to go? It's actually sorta fascinating how this has gone so far.

miggs · Post #2 » by **miggs** » Sat Jan 7, 2017 11:45 pm

If the trio of Russell Randle & Ingram keeps shining brighter and brighter like recently then i truly think we can, and fully should, push hard for the playoffs.

It would begin to set the 2018 FA pursuits in motion. Even making just the 8th seed against GSW, we could likely win 1 game and that'd be impressive enough.

Also would help drive down the pick owed to Philly. Imagine the pipe dream of making the 8th seed, even if it's a sweep to GSW then Lakers season ends in early May but less than two weeks later end up cracking the Draft Lottery top 3, even if its the 3rd pick. It's a deep draft. We can get a player to add to the core or flip it for a nice return and chase the playoffs by next season either way.

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danfantastk32 · Post #3 » by **danfantastk32** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 2:11 am

miggs wrote:If the trio of Russell Randle & Ingram keeps shining brighter and brighter like recently then i truly think we can, and fully should, push hard for the playoffs.

It would begin to set the 2018 FA pursuits in motion. Even making just the 8th seed against GSW, we could likely win 1 game and that'd be impressive enough.

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I agree for the most part. I think it will be harder to win only 12 games, than to win 22-23. I also just feel like this is not our year in the lottery. If we are lottery bound....I just feel like we'll lose it. No science there, but we've been a little lucky the last 3 years. There's that old saying about dippin in the well too many times.

ALTHOUGH.......

God I would hate it if we eeked in with some ridiculous 36 / 37-win record...and then Jim pulled off some "hey! We're contending" BS. I have made it pretty clear that I am not a fan in any way/shape/form of Jim....and at 14-26, there's a very large part of me that wants this season to end in a complete indictment of him. No wiggle-room....nothing. It would be a bummer....as I do think this team is better than it's been playing, and I think it would be beyond awesome if we did make the playoffs. But I think I make the trade, if getting to the playoffs gives him the ammunition necessary to keep his job. I'm sorry, but 36-38 wins is not contending in any universe. I'll take the the 8-losses instead, if it's what it takes.

But that's just me. I guess I could be called a "Jim hater". I personally think I'm fair with the guy, but he's just been so terrible...that when you tell the truth, it seems like hate.

rogers49 · Post #4 » by **rogers49** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 5:09 am

At 5-7 spot we land nothing, the pick goes to the 76ers.
We keep it only if is 1-3 and because that is impossible to get, tanking is not an option.

danfantastk32 · Post #5 » by **danfantastk32** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 5:13 am

rogers49 wrote:At 5-7 spot we land nothing, the pick goes to the 76ers.
We keep it only if is 1-3 and because that is impossible to get, tanking is not an option.

Well....we have like a 30% chance or something at the 6 or 7 spot. It's not a GREAT chance....but it's a respectable one

danfantastk32 · Post #6 » by **danfantastk32** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 5:20 am

It drops pretty quickly though, after that. I admit, tanking is a long-shot. As I said before...longer-shot than a playoff berth IMO.

When your thinking is skewed (as mine is) with the Jim Buss thing though....there's certainly more upside to being high in the lottery than an 8th seed that truly has no business being there. Would be good for the young guys perhaps??? Not sure. Playoff experience is a good thing. I suppose thats not an arguable fact.

It's a good question.

If you want my honest opinion...I think we're too good to tank, but not good enough for the playoffs. But coming in #10 sucks, and so I don't wanna think about that

MrWaffles · Post #7 » by **MrWaffles** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 3:49 pm

How much money could the NBA make if they got a Warriors vs Lakers first round? I would love to see it..

There's a chance at the playoffs due to the West being horrible this tear(so is the East). Here's one thing we can't do, finish 9th-12th. We simply can't afford to finish in those spots, we don't want to become the Magic of the West do we?

It's hard to say what we should do right now. If we happen to be the 10th or 9th seed the day of the trade deadline, then we should go all out for the playoffs. If we're the 12th or 13th spot in the west by deadline day, then blow it up. Trade Williams and Young. Sign Gary Payton II and start Zubac the rest of the year.

Once again, tough to as of right now because the West is so close. We'll know everything we need to know by All Star Weekend

danfantastk32 · Post #8 » by **danfantastk32** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 5:12 pm

MrWaffles wrote:There's a chance at the playoffs due to the West being horrible this tear(so is the East). Here's one thing we can't do, finish 9th-12th. We simply can't afford to finish in those spots, we don't want to become the Magic of the West do we?

The key difference, is we have a young team rising (or so we hope). You don't want to WALLOW in the 9-12th seed. One year of it, on your way up from the bottom of the barrel wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. We lose our pick in any realistic scenario anyhow...so our standing would be indifferent this one year.

Personally, I'd like to pay up our pick, and be done with it. It's been this "looming factor" for years now....and I'm kinda of tired of it. Yes, we have several other picks we owe too....so let's just get it over with. I think we ultimately owe 3 first rounders (2 for Nash, 1 for Dwight), and I will breath a long sigh of relief when all that is behind us.

MrWaffles · Post #9 » by **MrWaffles** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 5:41 pm

danfantastk32 wrote:
MrWaffles wrote:There's a chance at the playoffs due to the West being horrible this tear(so is the East). Here's one thing we can't do, finish 9th-12th. We simply can't afford to finish in those spots, we don't want to become the Magic of the West do we?

The key difference, is we have a young team rising (or so we hope). You don't want to WALLOW in the 9-12th seed. One year of it, on your way up from the bottom of the barrel wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. We lose our pick in any realistic scenario anyhow...so our standing would be indifferent this one year.

Personally, I'd like to pay up our pick, and be done with it. It's been this "looming factor" for years now....and I'm kinda of tired of it. Yes, we have several other picks we owe too....so let's just get it over with. I think we ultimately owe 3 first rounders (2 for Nash, 1 for Dwight), and I will breath a long sigh of relief when all that is behind us.

I agree with you to an extent. If we keep our pick this year (which we really need to tbh), we give our 2018 pick to Philly unprotected and we only owe two second rounders to the Magic (2017 and 2018). However, if we lose our pick this year to Philly, we also lose our 2019 first to the Magic but keep our 2018 1st.

This draft class seems the best since the Kobe draft. Keeping our pick would be huge, but also making the playoffs would be huge.

We're in a tough situation right now, contract wise and pick wise.

Landsberger · Post #10 » by **Landsberger** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 6:15 pm

I think this team may fade the second half rather than get markedly better. Young teams always fade as the kids are still adjusting to the rigors of the NBA schedule. I'm no prognosticator on how many wins gets us in the playoffs but I'd say being last in our division and being a first round knock out is really not much different if you look at the history of this franchise.

I hope to heavens that the front office sees it this way as well. Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs I hope there is no celebrating etc.... that is not what the Lakers should be about. That's for Charlotte, New Orleans or New Jersey. They should be looking at a 3 to 5 year plan to rebuild the franchise and not half season look aheads. This team is not a threat to anyone for a championship. I don't see the youth growing into that either. We have a lot of good young pieces but we're a great player away from getting back.

The other problem with where we are is the "tank" scenario where we jettison the vets at the deadline for picks etc. and lose our way into another top 3 pick. This does nothing but teach the youth how to lose. Look at the Sixers for that future.

We've dug a massive hole and have filled it as best we could given the circumstances. I think as Laker fans we will need to have a lot of patience and not get overly connected to any of our current team. I could see a scenario where all but a couple of them are gone by the time we truly return to the championship discussion.

Vesper · Post #11 » by **Vesper** » Sun Jan 8, 2017 6:54 pm

I say do an indirect tank.

Shutdown Mozgov and Russell and maybe Ingram.

Put Russ and Ingram on a specific weightroom program and let the rest of the players increase their values with inflated stats. Than, if we get a top 3 pick, we can get a stud or flip it for a vet, which would help us tremendously.

Positives of tanking. Young will probably resign with us and our team will be intact for another year.
Get a top 3 pick ala Fultz, DSj, Jackson, Tatum or Ball or flip it for Butler, Cousins, PG13, etc.

And luke and company can figure out who he wants from the young core/vets

rogers49 · Post #12 » by **rogers49** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 1:53 am

We'll not get any top 3 pick in any scenario, is only an impossible dream.
Only thing to do is improving our team's standings and possibly go to playoffs.

MrWaffles · Post #13 » by **MrWaffles** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 1:59 am

Vesper wrote:I say do an indirect tank.

Shutdown Mozgov and Russell and maybe Ingram.

Put Russ and Ingram on a specific weightroom program and let the rest of the players increase their values with inflated stats. Than, if we get a top 3 pick, we can get a stud or flip it for a vet, which would help us tremendously.

Positives of tanking. Young will probably resign with us and our team will be intact for another year.
Get a top 3 pick ala Fultz, DSj, Jackson, Tatum or Ball or flip it for Butler, Cousins, PG13, etc.

And luke and company can figure out who he wants from the young core/vets

If we're going to tank, we need to do it right. Mozgov and Deng need 30+ minutes each night. Bring Zuby up. We do that, we'll be bottom 3 in the West without a doubt.

Ballerhogger · Post #14 » by **Ballerhogger** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 4:04 pm

Happy with Randle overall improvement even if he took time some figure it out. They may have more than do with luke finding the leader on team. We found him. Not happy with Russell overall hopefully he starts to improve. Sell young and Lou at high value trade. Losing young for nothing is ok too. Just for the 8th seed with the current team if we can get 1st rounders. Would be open to trade mosgov if a contender wants to him for the playoffs.

Ballerhogger · Post #15 » by **Ballerhogger** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 4:06 pm

Would listen to buyers for Clarkson right now. Mosgov is getting into the Grove and Deng has proved to be useful in a few games.

danfantastk32 · Post #16 » by **danfantastk32** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 4:13 pm

Agree with that. I'm not saying we should tank.....but if we were going to, it would take a concerted effort. I hate to say it...but I think we're one of those "no man's land" teams this season. 30-35 wins. I don't think we make the playoffs...which makes trying for a pick the better option. But it would take some obvious, serious tanking.

On a positive....I think the young guys are all playing better and better. The development is there. Another top pick could serve as a nice trade-chip at this point. I don't know that we need/want more youth. What we need at this point is a star.

For instance.....if Klay decided to leave the Warriors cause he hates being 4th option...that would be so perfect for us. A legit star shooting guard. Would fit right in...would be our leader for a time (maybe always) and then we have a PG, SG, PF, and if Zubac works out....Center to build around him. Klay's still plenty young. That would be such a great fit. A top-3 pick, and a big....like Mozgov might make that trade happen (Klay would have to initiate all that, of course....GS would never just trade him).

Things like that make the pick so enticing, IMO. Good picks are an overrated commodity in the NBA. It's therefore a good thing to have them.

Ballerhogger · Post #17 » by **Ballerhogger** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 4:48 pm

If we can get Fultz I don't see anyone other standard out picks worth tanking for. Let just play it out. We we've won enough where tanking is going to be frowned upon now. A couple weeks earlier I would say we're close enough to go for the tank.

Bottom line we see what we have and Randle, Russell, and Ingram improve. I could do with or without Clarkson. Everyone else is long for the ride.

Post #18 » by **crazyeights** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 5:13 pm

I think what's most important is seeing Russell/Randle/Ingram share the floor as many minutes as possible and develop that chemistry for next year.

miggs · Post #19 » by **miggs** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 10:30 pm

danfantastk32 wrote:
miggs wrote:If the trio of Russell Randle & Ingram keeps shining brighter and brighter like recently then i truly think we can, and fully should, push hard for the playoffs.

It would begin to set the 2018 FA pursuits in motion. Even making just the 8th seed against GSW, we could likely win 1 game and that'd be impressive enough.

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I agree for the most part. I think it will be harder to win only 12 games, than to win 22-23. I also just feel like this is not our year in the lottery. If we are lottery bound....I just feel like we'll lose it. No science there, but we've been a little lucky the last 3 years. There's that old saying about dippin in the well too many times.

ALTHOUGH.......

God I would hate it if we eeked in with some ridiculous 36 / 37-win record...and then Jim pulled off some "hey! We're contending" BS. I have made it pretty clear that I am not a fan in any way/shape/form of Jim....and at 14-26, there's a very large part of me that wants this season to end in a complete indictment of him. No wiggle-room....nothing. It would be a bummer....as I do think this team is better than it's been playing, and I think it would be beyond awesome if we did make the playoffs. But I think I make the trade, if getting to the playoffs gives him the ammunition necessary to keep his job. I'm sorry, but 36-38 wins is not contending in any universe. I'll take the the 8-losses instead, if it's what it takes.

But that's just me. I guess I could be called a "Jim hater". I personally think I'm fair with the guy, but he's just been so terrible...that when you tell the truth, it seems like hate.

Jim can say whatever he likes, it's a separate issue at this point. I think the kids won't be affected by the stay or departure of Jim but that's another animal to discuss.

I think if we end up with a 36 - 40 record then i'd be pretty pleased regardless of us making the playoffs or not. It would be more than double the win total of last season and would surely pave the way for a much improved team in its second year under Luke. I could see a 45 - 31 to 48 - 28 type of record should we finish 36 - 40 or 37 - 39

It all depends on the kids, particularly the emerging trio of Randle, Russell & Tiny Dogg. If they keep up their play, I can see a legit playoff push happen, down to the last game of the season.

Dr Aki · Post #20 » by **Dr Aki** » Mon Jan 9, 2017 10:58 pm

danfantastk32 wrote:
rogers49 wrote:At 5-7 spot we land nothing, the pick goes to the 76ers.
We keep it only if is 1-3 and because that is impossible to get, tanking is not an option.

Well....we have like a 30% chance or something at the 6 or 7 spot. It's not a GREAT chance....but it's a respectable one

#5 worst record - 29.2% chance of keeping
#6 worst record - 21.5% chance
#7 worst record - 15.0% chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Process