Lakers Mathematics

[LakersSoul]

In my scenario, both Deng and Mozgov remain on our team for 2017, they will be paid in full doing alot of DNP-CD-TTJB (Did Not Play, Coaches Decision, Thanks to Jim Buss) and remain on our team unless someone offered something reasonable. Heck they're free.

Then, during 2018 summer when PG is supposedly a free agent, we'll have something around 45M to work with, more if we're able to move Randle and Clarkson ahead of time. Presumably, it will be 2 maxes, 2 stretches, Ingram, Zubac, Russell, Nance, Lonzo Ball and 28th pick this draft.

Who are the 2 maxes you're thinking about signing? Paul George and who? I'd definitely sign Avery Bradley, but not for max tho.

There's tons of options. Isaiah Thomas, Cousins, Westbrook, George, Bradley, Wilson Chandler, Barton, Wesley Matthews, Favors, Ed Davis, Brook Lopez, but there's a ton of player options and that's not even including the absolutely huge amount of RFA's.

Potential FAs at the max:

2017:
Hayward
Lowry
Griffin

2018:
IT
PG
Cousins


Veteran to pick up if price is right for 2017:
Collison
Jrue Holiday (expensive)
Jeff Teague (expensive)
Patty Mills
George Hill (expensive)

If we can get Hayward, Lowry or Griffin, then we go max on them in 2017 then wait for PG in 2018. If we can add 2 stars by summer 2018, then we sell future picks, stretch or trade assets with Moz/Deng to fit PG in 2018 without sacrificing the core of the group. If we miss again (most likely) in 2017, then we add a few pieces, add more youth/assets then wait for PG in 2018 summer. We can work towards another star in 2018 deadline or in the next years as Moz/Deng can be traded easier (not easy, just easier).

As a side, how crazy would it be if PG and IT decided to come to LA together in 2018? Two Lakers fans rebuilding the dynasty together.

[danfantastk32]

If we can get Hayward, Lowry or Griffin, then we go max on them in 2017 then wait for PG in 2018. If we can add 2 stars by summer 2018, then we sell future picks, stretch or trade assets with Moz/Deng to fit PG in 2018 without sacrificing the core of the group. If we miss again (most likely) in 2017, then we add a few pieces, add more youth/assets then wait for PG in 2018 summer. We can work towards another star in 2018 deadline or in the next years as Moz/Deng can be traded easier (not easy, just easier).

As a side, how crazy would it be if PG and IT decided to come to LA together in 2018? Two Lakers fans rebuilding the dynasty together.

I like the idea of Lowry....but I'd like to see how our lottery turns out first. If we are able to get a Fultz/Ball type guy...then perhaps Lowry is wasted money. I know it's foolish to expect a lotto pick to make an immediate impact....but I think if the guy is truly a great player, he should be making noise his 2nd season. I have some reservations hitching my wagon to Lowry at 31 as well. I think it's gonna be a couple years before we're ready to compete.

I hesitate on Hayward and PG because Iwant to slide Russell to the SG, and I think Ingram will be a great player in a couple seasons. Prob as good as them.

I would do this: A) do we get a Fultz/Ball? That immediately changes the equation. Go look up Curry, Wall, Irving...these guys were playing quite well their rookie seasons, and certainly their 2nd year. If Ball/Fultz TRULY have to goods...I don't think it has to be this 4-year project at all. Their 2nd year will be Randle/Russell's 4th. Ingram's 3rd, Clarkson's 5th. He should have solid support by then, and be able to do his thing.

If we don't get Fultz/Ball....then signing a legit PG should be priority #1. I think Russell at the 2 along side a quicker, really good PG will be a totally deadly combo. I make a serious go at Lowry. F-it....offer the guy legit $$ and GET the player. I'd like Thomas more, but I think we need to get a PG this year to pair with Russell. You could argue keeping Russell as PG, and signing a Heyward at the 2. I'd rather get a PG....and slide Russell myself, but It works.

If we do get Fultz/Ball....then I do 2 things: I swing for the fences. Offer Durant the Max. Once that fails (im sure it will) you go and try to shore up with some good roll players. Guys like Millsap, Tony-Allen...Livingston...Ariza. <-----all a bit old, but that "vein" of player. Try and pick up a deal or two, and wait for the following year for step #2.

B) This is it for Randle. His contract comes up next summer. He better learn to go right, get some midrange, and take a step or two. Otherwise....I make PF the 2nd mandatory upgrade. I don't see much in the 2018 class that impresses me (I assume Simmons, Towns, Porzingis will all be resigned)....but thats a ways away. We wait and see what's available.

[Princeinrevolt]

^ And thats how you become the Sacremento Kings everybody. No offense man, but you got to have patience. I'd never sign a max 31 year old unless its Lebron. Also there is no way Kyle Lowry signs with us anyways.

[danfantastk32]

^ And thats how you become the Sacremento Kings everybody. No offense man, but you got to have patience. I'd never sign a max 31 year old unless its Lebron. Also there is no way Kyle Lowry signs with us anyways.

Patience does not mean moving slowly. Never forget that.

I did mention reservations about signing a 31 year old, but he turned 31 like 20 days ago....so he's prob got a good 4 years left. At some point this team has to make something happen. You have to be patient for the moment....but when the moment arrives, you have to be decisive and quick.

If we don't get a PG this lotto....I would go all out for a PG. This team has to get SOMETHING going. Getting a PG starts the wheels turning. Notice I didn't try and turn it around over night. It;s 1 piece. It gives Randle (our weakest link, imo out of the "core") a chance to play 1 more year before moving on PF. I think thats a good move, because we really need a year or so for Ingram to get up to speed anyhow.

I'm not being impatient at all....but this team does need to start taking a shape. IMO....the best moves we can make are: A) Get PG, and slide Russell to #2. B) If Randle doesn't make jump...then replace with legit PF. C) Centers are not major factors these days. As long as Zubac turns into a "Decent" center....we keep, and start working on bench / roll players.

This might be a bad plan to you....if so, fair enough. But I don't think it's an "impatient" plan.

[LakersSoul]

^ And thats how you become the Sacremento Kings everybody. No offense man, but you got to have patience. I'd never sign a max 31 year old unless its Lebron. Also there is no way Kyle Lowry signs with us anyways.

Whether you like it or not, Lowry will get the max this summer. I would prefer Hayward but honestly neither will sign with us even if we throw the max at them. LOL.

[Princeinrevolt]

^ And thats how you become the Sacremento Kings everybody. No offense man, but you got to have patience. I'd never sign a max 31 year old unless its Lebron. Also there is no way Kyle Lowry signs with us anyways.

Whether you like it or not, Lowry will get the max this summer. I would prefer Hayward but honestly neither will sign with us even if we throw the max at them. LOL.

Kyle Lowry and Gordon Hayward deserve the max, i never said they didn't. But their teams are the ones that should give it to them, because they are already really good. The Lakers are really young, and adding a 31 year old is not going to do us any good tbh. We'll just waste all our space for someone thats not going to take us anywhere. If we throw the max at Kyle Lowry, we still won't make the playoffs, and on top of that, all our cap space is gone. I would sign Gordon Hayward because he is younger, but he will definitely not sign with us.

[ALL HAIL]

Free agent Darren Collinson plays defense on PGs and shoots the three ball nearly as good as Lowry at probably half the price.

And he's from L.A.

He should be the target.

[Princeinrevolt]

Free agent Ian Clark plays defense on PG's and the three ball pretty well, and is probably a quarter of the price of Collison.

He should be a target for us too.

[ALL HAIL]

Free agent Ian Clark plays defense on PG's and the three ball pretty well, and is probably a quarter of the price of Collison.

He should be a target for us too.

If Ian Clark is available for, as you say, a quarter of Collison's potential deal, then they should get both:

PG - Clarkson- Russell
SG - Collison - Clark
C - Nance - Zubac
PF - Randle - Deng
SF - Ingram - Brewer

[Princeinrevolt]

Free agent Ian Clark plays defense on PG's and the three ball pretty well, and is probably a quarter of the price of Collison.

He should be a target for us too.

If Ian Clark is available for, as you say, a quarter of Collison's potential deal, then they should get both:

PG - Clarkson- Russell
SG - Collison - Clark
C - Nance - Zubac
PF - Randle - Deng
SF - Ingram - Brewer

I know what you're trying to do with this lineup (trade value for Clarkson). But can we just agree that there is a zero percent chance that Magic/Luke will do that.

Development > Trade Value for Clarkson imo.

[ALL HAIL]

Free agent Ian Clark plays defense on PG's and the three ball pretty well, and is probably a quarter of the price of Collison.

He should be a target for us too.

If Ian Clark is available for, as you say, a quarter of Collison's potential deal, then they should get both:

PG - Clarkson- Russell
SG - Collison - Clark
C - Nance - Zubac
PF - Randle - Deng
SF - Ingram - Brewer

I know what you're trying to do with this lineup (trade value for Clarkson). But can we just agree that there is a zero percent chance that Magic/Luke will do that.

Development > Trade Value for Clarkson imo.

I would most definitely concede that.

But should they do it?

How much longer will they toil with Clarkson and Russell as our closing guards and the guards who play the most minutes?

It's got to end . . . if they want to actually start winning consistently.

I will add that it's not choosing Clarkson's trade value over the development of Russell, it's choosing the increase of odds of being able to clear space for a 2018 stud over Russell's ego.

[Princeinrevolt]

If Ian Clark is available for, as you say, a quarter of Collison's potential deal, then they should get both:

PG - Clarkson- Russell
SG - Collison - Clark
C - Nance - Zubac
PF - Randle - Deng
SF - Ingram - Brewer

I know what you're trying to do with this lineup (trade value for Clarkson). But can we just agree that there is a zero percent chance that Magic/Luke will do that.

Development > Trade Value for Clarkson imo.

I would most definitely concede that.

But should they do it?

How much longer will they toil with Clarkson and Russell as our closing guards and the guards who play the most minutes?

It's got to end . . . if they want to actually start winning consistently.

I will add that it's not choosing Clarkson's trade value over the development of Russell, it's choosing the increase of odds of being able to clear space for a 2018 stud over Russell's ego.

It's not about Russell's ego tbh, anyone would feel like crap about. Heck, Timofey Mozgov was freaked out when he found out he was not going to play anymore.

Everyone already knows that he can score. Clarkson's value is probably not going to rise until he gets better in his 3 point shooting, and his defense. And if he gets better in those areas, then we'll be able to bring back some value for him. If he does end up shooting 3's better, and play great defense on a consistent basis, he should be able to play next to D-Lo for at least a few minutes, while he is coming off the bench.

We have enough for 2018, and we can always stretch Deng, and Mozgov if we want to. This offseason we should only sign players to one-year deals, so we have as much space as possible in 2018.

[ALL HAIL]

I know what you're trying to do with this lineup (trade value for Clarkson). But can we just agree that there is a zero percent chance that Magic/Luke will do that.

Development > Trade Value for Clarkson imo.

I would most definitely concede that.

But should they do it?

How much longer will they toil with Clarkson and Russell as our closing guards and the guards who play the most minutes?

It's got to end . . . if they want to actually start winning consistently.

I will add that it's not choosing Clarkson's trade value over the development of Russell, it's choosing the increase of odds of being able to clear space for a 2018 stud over Russell's ego.

It's not about Russell's ego tbh, anyone would feel like crap about. Heck, Timofey Mozgov was freaked out when he found out he was not going to play anymore.

Everyone already knows that he can score. Clarkson's value is probably not going to rise until he gets better in his 3 point shooting, and his defense. And if he gets better in those areas, then we'll be able to bring back some value for him. If he does end up shooting 3's better, and play great defense on a consistent basis, he should be able to play next to D-Lo for at least a few minutes, while he is coming off the bench.

We have enough for 2018, and we can always stretch Deng, and Mozgov if we want to. This offseason we should only sign players to one-year deals, so we have as much space as possible in 2018.

Do the math when you get a chance with Collison and Clark at a combined 18 million a year plus a maxed out George minus Clarkson and Mozgov and Deng stretched.

According to my very rough calculations, they'd still have money left over for some role players.

[milesfides]

Like Rob Pelinka said, it's a Rubik's cube. But broadly speaking, the Lakers math will really be an all-or-nothing approach. We'll have to clear salary to land star free agents and develop young assets to trade for them. The veterans in between do little to help us at this stage of a rebuild, which includes Deng, Mozgov, and Brewer.

1) First, Mozgov must be moved this summer. He's still one of the best defensive big men, and he should have value in a league that's desperate for them (Cavs). We've got the Lou Williams 1st rounder to grease the wheels. Zubac is also ready to be showcased, whether to keep or trade, he's already productive so he needs to play. We need to move Mozgov to clear space for 2018 or worse case, 2019.


2) Second, so much depends on our top-3 pick; whether we keep it or trade it, it's a major asset. If we get it and draft Lonzo Ball or Josh Jackson for ourselves, we're presumably going to have move Jordan Clarkson, which also helps clear salary for 2018.

3) We have to push for Gordon Hayward. We have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. An all-star who's just entering his prime, he immediately legitimizes L.A. as a destination. By replacing Nick Young, he'll lead this young core to win some games and make some noise about a turnaround (easy considering how terrible we've been for three straight years). There's no other free agent this summer worth making a move for. He either helps us land another free agent like George in 2018, or if we miss out, we still have a dynamic all-star in his prime, and money to spend in the future.

4) Hope that one or more from our young core, D'Angelo, Ingram, Zubac, Nance, Randle, make the jump. Much depends on minutes and opportunity, but if Randle doesn't develop a three-pointer this summer, he should be moved, which could also help clear salary.

That's the all-option.

The nothing option is, if we lose out on a top 3 pick, and miss out on Gordon Hayward, the only option is to re-adopt a long game approach. Tank this year. The upside is, we have incentive to play Luol Deng 35 mpg and hope he reclaims some of his value while we lose games. Deng would lock in the first pick.

We'll let them play out their contracts as we develop our young talent over the next 4-5 years. Which might be how long it takes before the Golden State Warriors start fading. Because...no math is going to beat that team soon.

[Princeinrevolt]

Like Rob Pelinka said, it's a Rubik's cube. But broadly speaking, the Lakers math will really be an all-or-nothing approach. We'll have to clear salary to land star free agents and develop young assets to trade for them. The veterans in between do little to help us at this stage of a rebuild, which includes Deng, Mozgov, and Brewer.

1) First, Mozgov must be moved this summer. He's still one of the best defensive big men, and he should have value in a league that's desperate for them (Cavs). We've got the Lou Williams 1st rounder to grease the wheels. Zubac is also ready to be showcased, whether to keep or trade, he's already productive so he needs to play. We need to move Mozgov to clear space for 2018 or worse case, 2019.


2) Second, so much depends on our top-3 pick; whether we keep it or trade it, it's a major asset. If we get it and draft Lonzo Ball or Josh Jackson for ourselves, we're presumably going to have move Jordan Clarkson, which also helps clear salary for 2018.

3) We have to push for Gordon Hayward. We have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. An all-star who's just entering his prime, he immediately legitimizes L.A. as a destination. By replacing Nick Young, he'll lead this young core to win some games and make some noise about a turnaround (easy considering how terrible we've been for three straight years). There's no other free agent this summer worth making a move for. He either helps us land another free agent like George in 2018, or if we miss out, we still have a dynamic all-star in his prime, and money to spend in the future.

4) Hope that one or more from our young core, D'Angelo, Ingram, Zubac, Nance, Randle, make the jump. Much depends on minutes and opportunity, but if Randle doesn't develop a three-pointer this summer, he should be moved, which could also help clear salary.

That's the all-option.

The nothing option is, if we lose out on a top 3 pick, and miss out on Gordon Hayward, the only option is to re-adopt a long game approach. Tank this year. The upside is, we have incentive to play Luol Deng 35 mpg and hope he reclaims some of his value while we lose games. Deng would lock in the first pick.

We'll let them play out their contracts as we develop our young talent over the next 4-5 years. Which might be how long it takes before the Golden State Warriors start fading. Because...no math is going to beat that team soon.

1. The Cavs are $-32,447,163 in salary cap space, and $-13,303,785 in luxury tax. Why in the world will they trade for a guy who barely played for them, and costs $15,000,000. Come on man! You're better than this.

2. I agree.

3. I agree, we should go ALL IN for Gordon Hayward, but we're probably not going to be able to sign him. I even said before this season that if we impress, we should go after him. But we didn't impress (even though we can still go for him), he is not going to sign with us. So don't get your hopes up!

4. I fully agree with you.

[milesfides]

If you've followed the Cavs this year, their defense hasn't been good, largely their interior defense. Tristan Thompson hasn't been able to do that. This is also the reason why they've tried to bring in Larry Sanders.

They miss Mozgov, and Mozgov explicitly said he misses them.

We'd have to take back some salary, starting with Frye's expiring contract (2018).

The Cavs will almost certainly lose this season, because their defense hasn't been good. They could break up the big three, but the easier move would be to bring in Mozgov and get rid of a couple peripheral players.

[Princeinrevolt]

If you've followed the Cavs this year, their defense hasn't been good, largely their interior defense. Tristan Thompson hasn't been able to do that. This is also the reason why they've tried to bring in Larry Sanders.

They miss Mozgov, and Mozgov explicitly said he misses them.

We'd have to take back some salary, starting with Frye's expiring contract (2018).

The Cavs will almost certainly lose this season, because their defense hasn't been good. They could break up the big three, but the easier move would be to bring in Mozgov and get rid of a couple peripheral players.

bro... - 13,000,000 in luxury tax. I wish it was that simple, but its not. You have to face reality, and that is we're stuck with him for a long time, unless we give up real assets.

[Pointgod]

Like Rob Pelinka said, it's a Rubik's cube. But broadly speaking, the Lakers math will really be an all-or-nothing approach. We'll have to clear salary to land star free agents and develop young assets to trade for them. The veterans in between do little to help us at this stage of a rebuild, which includes Deng, Mozgov, and Brewer.

1) First, Mozgov must be moved this summer. He's still one of the best defensive big men, and he should have value in a league that's desperate for them (Cavs). We've got the Lou Williams 1st rounder to grease the wheels. Zubac is also ready to be showcased, whether to keep or trade, he's already productive so he needs to play. We need to move Mozgov to clear space for 2018 or worse case, 2019.


2) Second, so much depends on our top-3 pick; whether we keep it or trade it, it's a major asset. If we get it and draft Lonzo Ball or Josh Jackson for ourselves, we're presumably going to have move Jordan Clarkson, which also helps clear salary for 2018.

3) We have to push for Gordon Hayward. We have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. An all-star who's just entering his prime, he immediately legitimizes L.A. as a destination. By replacing Nick Young, he'll lead this young core to win some games and make some noise about a turnaround (easy considering how terrible we've been for three straight years). There's no other free agent this summer worth making a move for. [b]He either helps us land another free agent like George in 2018, or if we miss out, we still have a dynamic all-star in his prime, and money to spend in the future.[/b]

4) Hope that one or more from our young core, D'Angelo, Ingram, Zubac, Nance, Randle, make the jump. Much depends on minutes and opportunity, but if Randle doesn't develop a three-pointer this summer, he should be moved, which could also help clear salary.

That's the all-option.

The nothing option is, if we lose out on a top 3 pick, and miss out on Gordon Hayward, the only option is to re-adopt a long game approach. Tank this year. The upside is, we have incentive to play Luol Deng 35 mpg and hope he reclaims some of his value while we lose games. Deng would lock in the first pick.

We'll let them play out their contracts as we develop our young talent over the next 4-5 years. Which might be how long it takes before the Golden State Warriors start fading. Because...no math is going to beat that team soon.

Sorry to break it to you, but Gordon Hayward isn't walking through that door. Lakers aren't the team to sign with for a guy looking to win a championship. Our focus should be on moving Deng and Mozgov and getting a 1st round pick for Clarkson.

[milesfides]

Depends on how Utah's series plays out. Also, championship contenders can't exactly just add Gordon Hayward.

And nobody knows how much Gordon wants to stay in Utah or not, except he hasn't reassured them he'll stay.

By keeping it open, he's a target.

He also was very complimentary of the Lakers roster, Brandon Ingram specifically, and said we're a "very dangerous...good, young, talented team with a lot of good pieces.”

It would be dumb if the Lakers didn't push hard for him.

No guarantees of course, but as long as he's going to hit the free agent market, we let him sit down with Magic, Rob, Jeannie, and Kobe.

[milesfides]

bro... - 13,000,000 in luxury tax. I wish it was that simple, but its not. You have to face reality, and that is we're stuck with him for a long time, unless we give up real assets.

What does luxury tax have to do with a trade? Just have to fulfill the outgoing 125% salary plus 100K. Could at the least take back Shumpert's contract (expires 2019) in addition to Frye's (expires 2018) to make it work.

And Houston's first round pick is a real asset.