Ranking top sophs and best futures from 2015 NBA draft class (ESPN Ford/Pelton) update 4/3/17

[MelosSoreWrist]

As we did with the 2016 draft class/NBA rookies on Sunday, let's look at how the 2015 draft class -- the NBA's sophomore class -- is shaping up.

Here are Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton's top 10, based on future potential:

Ford: 1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

On draft night, it was clear to a majority of NBA execs and to me that Towns had the most upside of any player in the 2015 draft. Two years into his career, the only surprise is how good he's gotten so quickly.

Most expected there to be a steeper learning curve, but Towns ends his sophomore season as arguably a top-10 player in the league.

His numbers since the All-Star break are awe-inspiring: 28 points and 13 rebounds per game while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. Towns' defense is still a work in progress, but that seems to be the only weakness in his game.

Pelton: 1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

First of all, apologies to sophomore star Nikola Jokic, who was drafted in 2014 but didn't enter the NBA until 2015.

With Jokic out of the picture, there's no doubt Towns is No. 1 in this group.

His 16.3 wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric put him fifth in the entire NBA, although that overrates him a little because of his defense. But he stands behind only three of the leading MVP candidates (Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James) and Giannis Antetokounmpo by this measure. With more than a week to go, Towns already has the most WARP by a second-year player since James posted 23.4 in 2004-05.

Ford: 2. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

If Jokic were in this draft class, I think he'd be an easy call over Porzingis. But from the 2015 draft, Porzingis is the second-best prospect.

While his development hasn't been as rapid as Towns', Porzingis has shown enough growth for Knicks management to overhaul the team and build around him. And at age 21, he still has lots of room to grow as a player.

Pelton: 2. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

I did have to think about this one a little because of the way Myles Turner has come on in his second season, but Porzingis' superiority in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) carries the day.

Turner actually rates better by RPM based on 2016-17 alone, but in the multiyear version of RPM that is a better predictor of future performance, Porzingis' plus-3.3 rating puts him 30th in the league.

I think that reflects the kind of weapon Porzingis can be if used correctly. He still must improve defensively to get to the point where the Knicks can feel comfortable using him at center on a regular basis, but they should take advantage of his improved 3-point range in regular pick-and-pops instead of trying to get him on the block in the triangle.

Ford: 3. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

Before his freshman season, many scouts thought Turner was a top-three prospect in his high school class. His up-and-down play at Texas -- combined with an awkward gait while running the floor -- scared teams away, but two years into his NBA career, it's clear that Turner was a terrific prospect who just needed a little NBA coaching to clean up his flaws.

Offensively, Turner is still figuring it out, and he continues to leave a lot to be desired as a rebounder, but defensively there's no question he's already an impact player for the Pacers. Like Porzingis, Turner has tremendous, untapped upside.

Pelton: 3. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

There's amazing young talent at center in the NBA right now, and the 2015 draft class is a big part of it.

We've seen Turner improve his range this season, making 38 3-pointers at a 34.5 percent clip after going 3-of-14 beyond the arc as a rookie, and he's been an effective rim protector. Turner's limited small-area quickness will always be troublesome for him defending the pick-and-roll game, but he's already a quality starting center at age 21, which is no small feat.

All right, we've agreed on the first three spots in the re-draft. Now I think things start to get more interesting. Who's next for you?

Ford: 4. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

I know Booker is ranked only 53rd in RPM among NBA shooting guards, so the advanced stats aren't on his side at this point. But it's hard for me to ignore what one of the youngest players in the draft class of 2015 is doing as a sophomore.

I'm not talking about just his 70-point outburst against the Boston Celtics recently. He's also averaged 24 points per game since the All-Star break. While his shooting percentages aren't those of an elite shooter, I think Booker has what it takes to get there.

Defense is another issue entirely. He's pretty awful. But looking over the rest of the class, I just don't see another player who I think can get to where Booker looks close to getting already.

Pelton: 4. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

In the eyes of most of the basketball world, Booker is winning the battle of score-first, defense-poor guards taken in last year's lottery.

But as you suggest, the advanced stats solidly favor Russell. While Booker is a bit more efficient as a scorer and has a higher usage rate, Russell's assist rate is nearly double his. And while nobody will confuse Russell with Tony Allen, he at least supplies some steals and defensive rebounds.

I think the Lakers' starting to shift Russell off the ball will ultimately work in his favor by taking away the expectation that he needs to be a traditional, playmaking point guard. And as he develops the ability to shoot the pull-up 3 -- perhaps the most important skill for a point guard in the modern game -- I think it will compensate for his relatively poor athleticism and create more opportunities for Russell to put to use the court vision he flashed at Ohio State.

Ford: 5. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

Russell was a surprise riser on the 2015 draft boards. Even two weeks before the draft, it seemed unlikely that he'd go as high as No. 2 to the Lakers.

But there was a sizzle to Russell's game that appealed to the Lakers. They wanted a star to start building around, and Russell played with that sort of swagger.

He hasn't played as well as the Lakers had hoped. But if we downsize expectations a bit, the Lakers should have a lot to feel encouraged by -- for all the reasons you mentioned.

And if they can land someone like Lonzo Ball in this year's draft, moving Russell off the ball could really set him free of the expectations he's carried with him since draft night.

Pelton: 5. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

As skeptical as I am that Booker will ever rate as well in terms of advanced stats as he does in points per game, I can't put him any lower than this. Booker has shown both a unique ability to create his own shot at a young age and occasional playmaking chops.

If he can add efficiency to the mix, he'll be a quality starter no matter how infrequently he grabs a rebound or comes up with a steal.

Let's go to the lightning round for the rest of the top 10. Who do you have, Chad?

Ford:

6. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
7. Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets
8. Richaun Holmes, Philadelphia 76ers
9. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
10. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets

I've abandoned both Emmanuel Mudiay and Jahlil Okafor. Kevin, I know you're thrilled.

Cauley-Stein was a boom-or-bust prospect who looked, during his rookie season, more likely to be a bust. But since the Kings moved DeMarcus Cousins at the trade deadline, Cauley-Stein has started to play with a confidence that helps him fulfill his potential as a real defensive presence.

Kaminsky is another guy who seems to be figuring things out since the All-Star break, averaging 15.4 points per game and shooting nearly 39 percent from 3. His ability to shoot makes him a valuable prospect.

Who would've guessed that the best center the Sixers drafted in 2015 would be Richaun Holmes (the 37th pick), not Okafor (the third pick)? Since he moved into the starting lineup, Holmes has been averaging 14.5 points per game and seven rebounds per game in about 27 minutes per game.

Winslow has missed most of the season with a torn labrum but is expected to recover fully by the start of next season. His numbers didn't wow anyone in the 18 games he played before the injury, but Winslow's defensive talent and ability to be a small-ball 4 with playmaking skills (he averaged nearly four assists per game) make him an intriguing prospect.

Hollis-Jefferson can't shoot, but his defensive toughness and versatility make him a valuable building block for the Nets.

Pelton:

6. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets
7. Richaun Holmes, Philadelphia 76ers
8. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
9. Willy Hernangomez, New York Knicks
10. Larry Nance Jr., L.A. Lakers

We're agreed on three of the five spots. Winslow's inability to make progress as a shooter concerns me a little bit, but admittedly I might be sleeping on him because of his injury. Consider him, Kaminsky and Sam Dekker my toughest cuts.

My two additions are Hernangomez -- drafted in the 2015 second round, though he didn't come to the NBA until this season -- and Nance, a pair of players who supply energy and efficiency in the frontcourt. I'm not sure either will settle in as a starter in the NBA long term, but at worst they should be quality backups, making their floors much higher than that of the lottery picks who didn't make my top 10.

[iamworthy]

Pelton: 4. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

In the eyes of most of the basketball world, Booker is winning the battle of score-first, defense-poor guards taken in last year's lottery.

But as you suggest, the advanced stats solidly favor Russell. While Booker is a bit more efficient as a scorer and has a higher usage rate, Russell's assist rate is nearly double his. And while nobody will confuse Russell with Tony Allen, he at least supplies some steals and defensive rebounds.

I think the Lakers' starting to shift Russell off the ball will ultimately work in his favor by taking away the expectation that he needs to be a traditional, playmaking point guard. And as he develops the ability to shoot the pull-up 3 -- perhaps the most important skill for a point guard in the modern game -- I think it will compensate for his relatively poor athleticism and create more opportunities for Russell to put to use the court vision he flashed at Ohio State.

Ford: 5. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

Russell was a surprise riser on the 2015 draft boards. Even two weeks before the draft, it seemed unlikely that he'd go as high as No. 2 to the Lakers.

But there was a sizzle to Russell's game that appealed to the Lakers. They wanted a star to start building around, and Russell played with that sort of swagger.

He hasn't played as well as the Lakers had hoped. But if we downsize expectations a bit, the Lakers should have a lot to feel encouraged by -- for all the reasons you mentioned.

And if they can land someone like Lonzo Ball in this year's draft, moving Russell off the ball could really set him free of the expectations he's carried with him since draft night.

All you need to know about Chad Ford is that he was very high on Mudiay....and this is not a knock on Devin Booker who is a really good up and coming player.

[Princeinrevolt]

How could they put Kristaps Porzingis before Myles Turner...

Also, for their rookie rankings they had Ingram like 7th or something, and this is based on potential and stuff. These guys don't know what they are talking about.

EDIT:
Ford ranked Ingram sixth, and Pelton ranked him eighth

They ranked Scal Labissiere and Hernangomez before Ingram.

Hernangomez has averaged 4.9 points in 13.5 minutes per game for Denver, while Labissiere is averaging 7.7 in 16.3 minutes per contest.

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2017/4/2/15155384/la-lakers-espn-brandon-ingram-juan-hernangomez-skal-labisserie-rookie-rankings-nba-draft

[MelosSoreWrist]

Ranking the top 10 rookies and prospects from the 2016 draft

Joel Embiid and Dario Saric are two of the top rookies this season, but both were drafted three years ago.

What if we focus on the "true" rookies, drafted in 2016? Who comes out on top in those rankings?

Here are Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton's top 10, based on future potential:

Pelton: 1. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

It's been nearly 13 months since we've seen Simmons play in anything but a summer-league game, and we can add questions about the long-term health of his right foot to those about his outside shooting and defensive intensity. And yet nobody from this year's draft class has come close to matching Simmons' potential.

I don't think there's any question that he would go No. 1 if we were to redraft everyone. Simmons was atop my board last June and remains firmly entrenched there for the time being.

Ford: 1. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

I completely agree. While there was a real debate between NBA scouts between Simmons and Brandon Ingram going into the draft, Simmons was the clear choice to me. After watching the season play out, I still believe he's the best prospect in the class.

Assuming his foot heals correctly and he gets at least a passable jumper, he has all the skills to be a star. I don't think missing his rookie season will be a major setback.

Pelton: 2. Juan Hernangomez, Denver Nuggets

Well, here's where things go off the rails.

I was relatively high on Hernangomez a year ago -- he went fourth in my "grade A mock draft" -- and the limited action he has seen for the Nuggets has reinforced what I liked.

Hernangomez has made 44 percent of his 3s, and while that's obably not sustainable, he's a good enough shooter to make defenses respect him as a stretch 4. At the other end, Hernangomez has shown great versatility. He rebounds well enough to hold his own at power forward and has unexpectedly shown sufficient agility to defend wings when Denver has started him at small forward in supersized lineups.

There are surely other prospects from last year's draft with more upside (including one on his own team), but I think Hernangomez is the most certain to be a positive contributor for many years to come. And at 21, he's still a long way from his peak.

Ford: 2. Skal Labissiere, Sacramento Kings

About this time two years ago, Labissiere wowed NBA scouts with his play at the Nike Hoop Summit. Most teams walked away convinced he'd be the strongest contender to Simmons for the No. 1 pick, and he was ranked No. 2 on our first Big Board of the year.

A very rough freshman season at Kentucky torpedoed his draft stock and he slid to No. 14 on our final Big Board -- and all the way to the end of the first round in the actual draft. After he spent much of the first half of the season in the D-League with the Reno Big Horns, his inspired play for the Kings after the DeMarcus Cousins trade has me sold that the original assessment of Labissiere was correct.

He's a skilled forward who can rebound, protect the rim and shoots 3s. We haven't seen all of that in his rookie season, but I've seen enough to believe that his ceiling is higher than that of anyone else not named Simmons in this draft class. It may take him a few more seasons to get there, but since we are ranking on long-term potential, I think Labissiere would be my No. 2 pick.

Pelton: 3. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

I thought I was going off the board with the 15th pick going second in my redraft and you went all the way to No. 28 with Labisierre!

I agree he is back on track to becoming a good NBA player, but I'm not quite ready to put him ahead of his Kentucky teammate. Murray has rated around replacement level as a rookie, which is pretty impressive in the context of his age (20 in February) and the fact that he's shooting just 34 percent from 3-point range.

I expect him to dramatically improve that based on shooting 41 percent from 3 during his lone college season and 87 percent from the line in the NBA. Murray has shown the ability to hold his own as a point guard, and I like his potential fit with Nikola Jokic when he becomes a starter -- at least offensively.

Ford: 3. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

Murray ended up No. 4 on my final Big Board, and I think he deserves to move up a spot based on what I've seen as well. I agree with the assertion that his 3-point shooting should improve with time. I thought he was the most impressive shooter I scouted last season.

My biggest question surrounds his ability defend the quicker, more athletic point guards in the league. But you are right: He and Jokic will make a potent combo.

Pelton: 4. Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks

In practice, I doubt Brogdon would go this high in a draft because his immediate value isn't as useful to a rebuilding team as the upside of the younger players (Brogdon is already 24) taken far before him last June.

Still, in a vacuum I think Brogdon is likely to outproduce them even at their peak. No, Brogdon probably won't keep shooting better from the NBA line (40 percent) than the shorter college line (his career high at Virginia was 39 percent). Still, he's settled in at point guard, where his size and strength make him a fine defender already.

No wonder ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) loves his contributions, rating Brogdon better than any other 2016 draft pick.

Ford: 4. Guerschon Yabusele, Boston Celtics

I'm going to go way out to left field for my next pick. While technically not an NBA rookie, Yabusele was the 16th pick in the draft. He played in China this season, averaging 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.

Kevin, your translated stats for Yabusele had him averaging nearly 14 points and eight rebounds per 36 minutes as an NBA power forward. And in his debut for the Maine Red Claws last night, he had 17 points and nine boards in just 25 minutes. And that was his first game in a month after an ankle injury ended his season in China early.

The Celtics are very bullish on him. He's a strong, super-athletic big man who can stretch the floor and plays with both great energy and feel. He's a little undersized for his position, but the comparisons to Jae Crowder (or before the draft, Larry Johnson) seem apt.

I think I'd take his upside right now over that of Hernangomez or Brogdon.

Pelton: 5. Ante Zizic, Boston Celtics

Interesting choice. I'll follow suit by looking outside the NBA.

I'm going with the other first-rounder the Celtics stashed, No. 23 pick Zizic, who has split time between KK Cibona in his native Croatia and Darussafaka in Turkey. Between the two stops, Zizic has averaged 20.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per 36 minutes on 67 percent shooting. Just 20, Zizic could be part of Boston's rotation next season when he's scheduled to join the team.

In the longer term, he could follow in the footsteps of Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic as centers who have translated success in the Adriatic League to the NBA.

Ford: 5. Ante Zizic, Boston Celtics

I debated between Yabusele and Zizic and I know the Celtics are very high on both, as are NBA scouts for some other teams. His size, strength, toughness and skill set make Zizic a big man to watch for the Celtics' future.

If Jaylen Brown improves, the Celtics will have had a heck of a draft. And who would've thought Brown might be their third-best prospect from 2016?

KP, who are your second five?

Pelton:

6. Skal Labissiere, Sacramento Kings
7. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
8. Brandon Ingram, L.A. Lakers
9. Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
10. Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns

I'm skeptical Labissiere can sustain his midrange shooting -- he's at 62.5 percent on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com -- which will make it a challenge for him to score efficiently. Still, his size, age and skill make him an intriguing prospect.

As excited as Celtics fans are about Brown being a rotation player as a rookie, he still rates below replacement level by RPM and box plus-minus. He has cut out many of the poor shots that made him inefficient at Cal but still doesn't look as good statistically as by the eye test.

As poorly as Ingram has played as a rookie (and despite a recent surge, he still has the most wins below replacement player in the league), his youth and frame make him worth a risk by this point. Something similar is true of Bender, who has barely played as a rookie. Fellow Suns forward Chriss has gotten the lion's share of the playing time and has been productive, though his poor pattern recognition and decision making on defense figure to always limit his value.

Ford:

6. Brandon Ingram, L.A. Lakers
7. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
8. Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
9. Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns
10. Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks

This group is obviously more about potential than production. While Hernangomez and Brogdon have both had better rookie seasons than the players on this list, but I suspect that some of the higher-rated prospects will improve dramatically as they gain strength and experience.

Ingram, especially, has nowhere to go but up after a very shaky rookie season. As he adds strength and improves his shooting, I see a skill set there that should thrive in the league. Brown and Chriss are guys who look better via the eye test than they do in the box score. Their athletic talent is carrying them right now, but both have emerging skills sets that could make them productive players.

And I'm not close to being ready to write off Bender. He was the youngest player in the draft, didn't get much playing time and still has terrific upside as a prospect.

While this draft has looked like a major disappointment so far, I still see a lot of hope that some solid players are going to come from it.

[TyCobb]

That 2016 list is just embarrassing.

[iamworthy]

Clearly they havent watched Brandon over the last month.

[Princeinrevolt]

They put some random ass mofo from china that no one knows in front of Brandon Ingram. The hate for the Lakers is REAL. These guys will regret this ranking in just a year. I'm confident in that one hundred percent.

[dockingsched]

That list is a freaking insult to Ingram. Boy do I hope he proves people wrong next year.

[TheHartBreakKid]

Ingram going to make them both look dumb next year for this list......I can say that with confidence. I haven't seen anything from anyone in this draft to think that they'll have a better career than Ingram, other than Simmons in summer league.


The first list is solid, though I think Dlo should be rated higher than Booker.....but it's a travesty that one of them has booker first. Ingram's placement in those lists would have been ok (though still wrong and shortsighted) a month ago.....but considering the month he's had, I can't see how you have some of those guys above him. Yes I know other guys might have had better advanced stats in far smaller roles and minutes, but at some point, you have to actually watch the games, when the players are this young.

[The Skyhook]

These boneheads consistently have wacky rankings. The casual fan isn't going to pay the insider cost so it's not like they're being brain washed by this nonsense and the basketball junkie isn't going to buy into this crap. So I wouldn't worry about what they say because I don't think it's going to change the view of anyone in position to make basketball decisions. I just find it baffling that someone who is considered a basketball expert can be so blind in regards to Ingram.

[iamworthy]

These boneheads consistently have wacky rankings. The casual fan isn't going to pay the insider cost so it's not like they're being brain washed by this nonsense and the basketball junkie isn't going to buy into this crap. So I wouldn't worry about what they say because I don't think it's going to change the view of anyone in position to make basketball decisions. I just find it baffling that someone who is considered a basketball expert can be so blind in regards to Ingram.

I don't think either of them actually watch basketball. I think pelton just follows advance analytics and Chad Ford follows his heart ultimately if Ingram stays on the pace he's on pelton will start to rave about Ingram but Chad Ford will stick to his opinion.

[J_LA]

Ingram at 6?
Based on what we've seen the last couple months I'll be surprised if Ingram isn't number 1 on that list by this time next year.

[TylersLakers]

Nice to see Russell getting back into the good books of some of these guys. He wasn't playing enough to start the season, that's obvious. His current stats look pretty similar to his Per 36 stats early in the year.

[Michael Lucky]

Pelton: 4. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

In the eyes of most of the basketball world, Booker is winning the battle of score-first, defense-poor guards taken in last year's lottery.

But as you suggest, the advanced stats solidly favor Russell. While Booker is a bit more efficient as a scorer and has a higher usage rate, Russell's assist rate is nearly double his. And while nobody will confuse Russell with Tony Allen, he at least supplies some steals and defensive rebounds.

I think the Lakers' starting to shift Russell off the ball will ultimately work in his favor by taking away the expectation that he needs to be a traditional, playmaking point guard. And as he develops the ability to shoot the pull-up 3 -- perhaps the most important skill for a point guard in the modern game -- I think it will compensate for his relatively poor athleticism and create more opportunities for Russell to put to use the court vision he flashed at Ohio State.

Ford: 5. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

Russell was a surprise riser on the 2015 draft boards. Even two weeks before the draft, it seemed unlikely that he'd go as high as No. 2 to the Lakers.

But there was a sizzle to Russell's game that appealed to the Lakers. They wanted a star to start building around, and Russell played with that sort of swagger.

He hasn't played as well as the Lakers had hoped. But if we downsize expectations a bit, the Lakers should have a lot to feel encouraged by -- for all the reasons you mentioned.

And if they can land someone like Lonzo Ball in this year's draft, moving Russell off the ball could really set him free of the expectations he's carried with him since draft night.

All you need to know about Chad Ford is that he was very high on Mudiay....and this is not a knock on Devin Booker who is a really good up and coming player.

Chad Ford is a fraud. He's knows absolutely nothing. He's the typical guy that gets his info from other mock drafts and makes his opinions off of them.

[Slava]

http://bkref.com/tiny/FUB19

[AcecardZ]

http://bkref.com/tiny/FUB19

Interesting... The more I see of Brandon the happier I am he's a Laker

19 year old Ingram PER 8.2

19 year old Kobe PER 18.5

[mastermixer]

Im surprised Zubac didn't crack their 2016 list.