Philly/OKC - James Harden for Greg Monroe

[djthesonicsfan]

It's fun to toss out ideas for building your favorite team. Some ideas are more far fetched than others. Doesn't matter. It's all for fun. But for those interested in trades that could actually be considered by a particular team, the notSonics in this case, it makes sense to understand their organizational strategy first.

Presti has done a brilliant job over a relatively short time building a young, athletic team with truly excellent chemistry that's got many years of contention going forward. It's exactly what he was aiming at. Didn't happen by luck. There's no reason to think, after all this success, he's going to muck around with the valuable core pieces he's so carefully assembled. Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden & Ibaka are not going anywhere. And teams that ask about Sefolosha or Maynor quickly find out how highly Presti values those two guys as well.

This leaves the assets Presti would consider dealing...
- the young guys (White, Mullens, Weaver)
- the veteran bigs (Collison, Krstic)
- the 2010 picks (#18, #25 & #32)

... for a difference making center who's going to fit into the team's existing chemistry. A tough trick for sure. But he's not in a rush. If he can't make that happen this summer, no worries. Both Collison & Krstic will be expiring next season so they'll be worth even more at next February's trade deadline. And he's likely to draft Daniel Orton (Quincy Pondexter too) this June. The notSonics starters/rotation just keep getting more experienced & the bench just keeps getting deeper & deeper.

Starters - Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, Green, Krstic
Rotation - Maynor, Collison, Harden, Ibaka
Bench - White, Mullens, Weaver, Orton, Pondexter, 3rd PG

Any trade ideas that want realistic consideration should take this strategy into account.

[slick_watts]

DJ I know you like to speak to Sam Presti's strategy but it's naive to believe that every NBA player does not have a price tag. Presti would definitely trade any player on the roster if it meant the team would get better. The Thunder use a lot of data analysis to make basketball decisions, Presti is certainly aware of the weaknesses and strengths of the team. If he could shore up a weakness by dealing from a strength, he'll do it.

[gswhoops]

This leaves the assets Presti would consider dealing...
- the young guys (White, Mullens, Weaver)
- the veteran bigs (Collison, Krstic)
- the 2010 picks (#18, #25 & #32)

No offense, but that's gonna get you a whole lot of nothing.

[microfib4thewin]

yeah, maybe, but I disagree. Dalembert's value is only going to go up over the course of the next year.

Only for teams that want to dump contracts that goes past 2011. No one is going to send you a smaller expiring AND give you a 1st for Dalembert's services. His production is a dime a dozen, and most teams would rather get a defensive C who's not as good as Dally but is paid much less.

[pillwenney]

The Thunder are an interesting team moving forward for sure. What I was thinking they should eventually do is make Ibaka the PF of the future. He seems to just fit better with what they could use from that position than Green. If they do that, I don't think they necessarily need a super strong defensive center. The higher priority there should be post offense, and they should be in a great position to go after one if both Green and Harden are available. That's a nice young tandem right there that should serve as some nice bait in the right situation.

Monroe is probably the right idea. I just think they should aim a little higher.

[BringBackKorver]

What about something centered around Speights + #7 + Kapono + Green + Future 1st for Harden + Green + #32.

Better or worse? If you're looking for post offense Speights is about as good of a prospect as you can look for, and a Speights / Monroe tandem should work on paper. You'll stay with your athletic young team, not jeopardize long term salary and all that good stuff. Plus you wouldn't have to pony up the $$ for Green next year. It would be tough to figure out what to do with Brand, Young, and Green...But we could figure that out later.

[VintaGe36]

Terrible value for OKC. They gut their team for two marginal role players(at best mind you), a raw PF prospect(which they already have, and a vague "future 1st"?

Break it down.

Harden > #7

Green > Speights

#32 >= Future 1st

Nothing > Kapono and Green

[BringBackKorver]

Alrighty well we'll throw that one out the window.

[VintaGe36]

I still think trading Harden for a guy like Monroe doesn't make sense to me.

Yes, having a bonafide stud down-low is always a plus. However OKC has the luxury of knowing who their Alpha Star is (Durant) and knowing he wants to stick around. I'd rather surround him with guys who make the game easier for him, and compliment him. Try to trade Green for an upgrade fit wise at the 4, Go after Haywood in the off-season, pick up a solid veteran PF who can fill the void till Ibaka or different young PF is ready to take over.

Even without a Green trade:

Westbrook/Maynor
Harden/Sefolosha
Durant/Green
Green/Ibaka
Haywood/Collison

Is not a bad team on paper at all.
People underestimate how much better they'd get with a defensive C of Haywood's caliber.

[slick_watts]

Yes, having a bonafide stud down-low is always a plus. However OKC has the luxury of knowing who their Alpha Star is (Durant) and knowing he wants to stick around. I'd rather surround him with guys who make the game easier for him, and compliment him. Try to trade Green for an upgrade fit wise at the 4, Go after Haywood in the off-season, pick up a solid veteran PF who can fill the void till Ibaka or different young PF is ready to take over.

This is the general consensus right now I think. We saw Sam Presti try to do this last year at the deadline with Tyson Chandler, so it's not a foreign concept at all.

A lot of this has to do with how James Harden develops. Right now he's playing well in the limited minutes he gets, his TS is around 60% since the break. We need a legit second option offensively in between Durant and Westbrook. If that can be Harden, it lessens our need for a dominant big man (offensively) and a defensive center like a B. Haywood can suffice.

If Harden isn't that guy, then we'll probably need a big man that can score a little bit, too.

Remember this team has been pretty good defensively all year and spotty on the offensive end. Recently that's flipped a bit. It's hard to know exactly what we need.

[VintaGe36]

How would a guy like Milsap or Scola fit?

[BringBackKorver]

I think we're pretty much all in agreement that they are much better off trading Green than anyone and going after a long term big man. But once somebody who isn't a Philly fan agrees that we need a guy like Harden, it gets us excited. We don't have a history of agreeing with anyone, so it's nice to see. There's no doubting that Haywood is a good fit in OKC, but my question is how long do you want to sign Haywood for? Is he really a long term fix at center, or are you plugging the gap for a few years until you come across someone better?

My worry would be that Haywood is most likely looking for his last big payday this year, to the tune of a 4 or 5 year deal that takes him to 35 years old. Are the Thunder willing to overpay the best center available this off-season? And will that put them over the top? I guess it's something to worry about when the time comes, but you guys have been so successful in the draft the last couple years that the paydays are going to be painful soon. Durant is getting a max deal soon, Green will probably want around $8m a year, Westbrook is going to get over $10m a year, and you have to find that all too important big man that can be the final piece to your core.

To me a guy like Harden who is a luxury to have might be better off used to acquire the guy that can sit behind Haywood for 2 years and learn. It might be interesting to see if a three team deal is an option where you could use the Sixers pick @ 7 with one or two later picks to try and jump up and grab someone like Favors as a long term solution. All of this is moot though, because the league is going to help us out and give us the 3rd pick this year.

[slick_watts]

How would a guy like Milsap or Scola fit?

Scola would be a great fit, in my opinion.

There's no doubting that Haywood is a good fit in OKC, but my question is how long do you want to sign Haywood for? Is he really a long term fix at center, or are you plugging the gap for a few years until you come across someone better?

It's a tough question. I honestly don't believe Sam Presti will commit five years to anybody unless it's a huge star. A more likely scenario to me is a trade for shorter term contract of a player who might be overpaid a bit. I'm not sure how many realistic targets fitting this description exist in the NBA right now, but Presti attempted to do just this with Tyson Chandler and it's probably what he'll try to do if he is intent on acquiring a defensive center.

To me a guy like Harden who is a luxury to have might be better off used to acquire the guy that can sit behind Haywood for 2 years and learn. It might be interesting to see if a three team deal is an option where you could use the Sixers pick @ 7 with one or two later picks to try and jump up and grab someone like Favors as a long term solution. All of this is moot though, because the league is going to help us out and give us the 3rd pick this year.

James Harden isn't a luxury. Thabo gets a lot of love, deservingly so, for his defense. But he's only truly effective on a very specific kind of player. Brandon Roy, Kobe Bryant, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade - he makes those guys work. Up against a lot of teams, though, his utility as a defender is compromised (against Dallas, for example) since he's not guarding their best offensive weapon. In these situations, Harden has much greater impact on a game since he's able to contribute offensively, while not being a liability on defense (he's actually pretty good).

James Harden and Serge Ibaka have both been fantastic since the All Star break and are progressing very rapidly. I think much of what Sam Presti will seek to do depends on the progression of those two players. Both could be starting as early as next year, in which case Jeff Green might be expendable for a more appropriate piece.

[VintaGe36]

If money becomes an issue, you trade or don't resign Green first IMO.

This is all reliant on Harden developing more with larger minutes next year, but all signs show that he will.

[BringBackKorver]

A more likely scenario to me is a trade for shorter term contract of a player who might be overpaid a bit.

Dalembert is jumping up and down waving. We'd most likely throw him out there for Collison or Kristic and your high 2nd or latest first I'd imagine.

As to Harden progressing, I agree. It's hard for a Sixers fan to watch Harden not start when we can't find a shooting guard to save our lives. The large push for him is just us trying to grab a gem before he starts getting starter minutes and showing what he can really do. If I were the Thunder I'd be calling whatever team lands at #4 and doing whatever it takes to get either Cousins or Favors.

[dream_catcher_9]

A more likely scenario to me is a trade for shorter term contract of a player who might be overpaid a bit.

Dalembert is jumping up and down waving. We'd most likely throw him out there for Collison or Kristic and your high 2nd or latest first I'd imagine.

As to Harden progressing, I agree. It's hard for a Sixers fan to watch Harden not start when we can't find a shooting guard to save our lives. The large push for him is just us trying to grab a gem before he starts getting starter minutes and showing what he can really do. If I were the Thunder I'd be calling whatever team lands at #4 and doing whatever it takes to get either Cousins or Favors.

Favors yes, Cousins no. Presti doesn't bring in guys with bad atttiudes.

[Foshan]

it makes sense to understand their organizational strategy first.

......

See this seems to me to be a reason that the Dalembert trade works out so well for OKC. It is virtually the same thing they tried to get Chandler. I don't remember the exact peices involved, but I'm pretty sure they would have been cap space as of this year, so to say moving a contract like Collison or Kristic and some cap space I don't think is far fetched at all.

I do think Dally's value is higher than Chandlers. Dally has no injury history, dudes an iron man. While they are the same age, Chandler has a lot more wear and tear on him. Dally's a guy you would consider extending on a cheaper deal going forward, Chandler not so much. Also, I think with Haywood being traded to Dallas, the possibility of him going to OKC just dropped drastically. There seems to be some good chemistry on that Mavs team.

I think a lot will depend on how both teams do in the playoffs, but if the Mavs make some noise, I can't see Haywood giving up playing with Dirk/Kidd/Marion/Butler to end his career with some superstar vets making a final all out run.