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Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's value?

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Post#21 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:02 pm by LoyalKing

Yeah but the value perceived by Portland fans is way different than the real value Lillard has around the league. OKC would never trade Westbrook for him, BK would never trade Williams for him, Cleveland would never trade Irving for him.

And for the record, Lillard came from college as a senior so it's obvious that he will be more ready than most rookies. Irving has 1 more year of experience in the NBA than Lillard and he is still 2 years younger. Westbrook is already a superstar and he is only 2 years older than Lillard.

You also have to point out his flaws as well. He is a shoot-first PG that is leading the rookies in turnovers per game. Yeah, he has been playing well so far, but a 10-game spark doesn't mean jack. Ask Jeremy Lin.
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Post#22 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:37 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

LOL, of course Lillard is leading the rookies in turnovers - he has the ball in his hands 10x as much as any other rookie. Rubio lead the rookies last year (and Irving was only half a step behind), but I have never heard that criticism of them.
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Post#23 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:12 pm by cucad8

LoyalKing wrote:Yeah but the value perceived by Portland fans is way different than the real value Lillard has around the league. OKC would never trade Westbrook for him, BK would never trade Williams for him, Cleveland would never trade Irving for him.


It's not that Portland fans feel he is that valuable, and that all those teams but LAC and Boston and Cleveland would jump at trading us their PG. Like I said, these threads are stupid for just such a reason. For Portland fans, well, you likely don't trade him for Deron when you factor in where we are at a team, salary, etc. For Brooklyn fans, of course you aren't trading Deron for him. When people say they would only move him for X, it doesn't mean he is WORTH X, it just means someone would have ot overpay to get our rookie from us. And it isn't going to happen. As someone said earlier, worth more to Portland than he is anywhere else, like everyone else's rookies and second year players. And these threads generally end in fanbase mocking.
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Post#24 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:12 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

In terms of the thread, there is no reason for Portland to trade Lillard unless it is Rondo or Irving. Not saying Lillard commands that type of value, but people should understand that Portland just isn't going to trade him for someone like Lawson.


Of course, lets all bag on Portland for being homers because that is the type of group think that realGM loves.
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Post#25 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:13 pm by LoyalKing

He is the 8th in the league overall in terms of turnovers.

I just said it because Case pointed out the flaws of all the other top PGs in the league, but never said anything about Lillard.

Yeah, obviously he has the ball in his hands a lot, he is a PG. The fact that he has so much the ball in his hands also allows him to score the 19ppg that he has now, but he is still efficient even shooting a lot, so we can't use the "ball in his hands a lot" as an excuse for turnovers.

For what I recall, Rubio got more criticism for his shooting. Irving got criticism for his turnovers, but he came to the NBA as a 19 year-old freshman who barely played in college. Lillard is a 22 year-old senior, 2/3 years older than most of the rookies of the draft. Obviously the NBA is a big step, but should take care of the ball better than that as a senior.

Not taking away anything from him. He is a very good prospect, no doubt about it.
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Post#26 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:56 pm by Case2012

Texas Chuck wrote:So you wouldnt trade Lilliard for Westbrook or Uncle Drew? And you dont consider yourself a homer? mmmmmmmmmmm ok

Westbrook is less a ball hog than he is a great scorer. KD doesnt lead the league in scoring 3x in a row if Westbrook is really a ball hog and KD and Harden werent among the top 4th quarter scorers if Westbrook is nothing but a ballhog.

Westbrook is a dominant player who is still extremely young who plays his tail off at both ends and never misses games but hes not a small-conference rookie whose looked pretty good for 10 games.....SMH You are way way underrating how good Westbrook is. Hes a beast.


Not feeling the homer word being tossed around, I thought MODS didn't like that. Anyways! No one said Westbrook wasn't a beast, but he's also a ballhog, kind of a headcase and isn't a true pg. Why do you think I said i'd rather have Rondo? Aside from that, you totally ignored my other points. All you read is "I wouldn't trade Lillard for Westbrook." Read the whole f'n post yo.
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Post#27 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:44 pm by NiqtheAntiq

I think Portland having so little talent on the roster is making him look slightly better than he is. They seriously have the worst bench in the league by far. This is enabling him to develop faster than expected.

However his court vision is already on Star NBA PG level 10 games in. I think his peak is a slightly worse version of Chris Paul that can stay healthy.
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Post#28 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:12 am by witnessraps

This guy will be a top 5 PG imo. He's already one of the best shooters and he's getting like 6.5 assists and leading rookies in steals. I think he can be a very special player. I probably won't trade him for Westbrook especially considering Lillard's salaryu.
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Post#29 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:35 am by Golabki

lewdog wrote:
j_angel wrote:No way is he worth Rondo ...

Hes a very good player but Portland would be lucky to get someone like Holiday, Lawson, Curry (if he was not injured) for him.


Because of his age and potential (it's looking like he'll be runner-up for ROY) he just may be worth Rondo. It's close.

However agreed, a healthy Curry and Lawson are probably more likely the value at this point.


Lilliard's age is an issue. He's the same age as Holiday, not 19 or 20 like most lotto picks. So, while he's been great, I don't think you can project him as a rising superstar.

I think his value is right around Holiday/Lawson/Curry.
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Post#30 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:17 am by Trader_Joe

Case2012 wrote:
franktony wrote:WOW so after 10 games Lillard is worth Rondo ?

Portland fans starting the homerism early this time. :lol:


Because of how good Lillard is right now, and the fact that he has so much potential, I would only trade him for someone whose reached their potential, like Rondo or CP3. My reasoning is based on the fact that there is little to no risk in trading him for one of those guys. If you're going to trade Lillard for one of those guys you also have to take into account he might be as good or better by the time he's the same age as the players I mentioned too.

The players other people have mentioned all have big salaries, or have injuries or are not living up to their new contracts. Lawson has stunk this year, so has Curry (plus he has injuries) and Holiday hasn't been good either.

I didn't mention Westbrook, because he's a ballhog.
I didn't mention Rose because of his contract and ACL injury.

Rondo isn't as good a shooter but I think he's a hall of famer and the best point guard in the league. CP3 is a very close second.

Lillard = Already good, plus great potential, and on a rookie deal, with rfa rights.

SOOOO to recap, every other pg his age is on a a bigger deal, has struggled this season, or has very concerning injury histories.

No way are the Blazers trading him, but if they were, Rondo and CP3 would be the only players I would deal for. Maybe not even Paul because of his unrestricted free agent status, and I doubt he would stay in a small market.

Not for a locked up for 5 years D.Will?

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Post#31 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 9:53 am by gswhoops

He's shown a lot of really good things, but c'mon people...he's played TEN GAMES in the NBA, and people are seriously saying they wouldn't trade him for Westbrook, Irving, Deron, Rose, etc etc.???

Let's see what he can do over a full season before we anoint him the next Chosen One.
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Post#32 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:26 am by Fitz303

Alienware wrote:Irving has more value than him. Just as young, but already more productive and his ceiling is just so damn high.


I'm not saying that Irving doesn't have more value, in fact I agree. But his being more productive is minimal, and how exactly is his ceiling higher?

Here is a player comparison of Irving and Rose's sophomore years, to Lillard's rookie season so far

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y3=2013

They're all pretty close in comparison. For me, I just want to see if Lillard can keep it up as the scouting reports get more video tape on him.


Golabki wrote:
lewdog wrote:
j_angel wrote:No way is he worth Rondo ...

Hes a very good player but Portland would be lucky to get someone like Holiday, Lawson, Curry (if he was not injured) for him.


Because of his age and potential (it's looking like he'll be runner-up for ROY) he just may be worth Rondo. It's close.

However agreed, a healthy Curry and Lawson are probably more likely the value at this point.


Lilliard's age is an issue. He's the same age as Holiday, not 19 or 20 like most lotto picks. So, while he's been great, I don't think you can project him as a rising superstar.

I think his value is right around Holiday/Lawson/Curry.


LOL that's the same crap Blazers fans heard about Roy in his rookie season. "Oh he's 22, so he won't be a rising star"....Thats such a weak argument to make.
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Post#33 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:26 pm by DusterBuster

I think when it comes to Westbrook, there's a stigma attached to him that turn a lot of NBA fans off, regardless of how insanely talented he is. His at times pouty attitude, poor body language on the court, very me-first style of play, questionable shot selections, etc.

With Rose, I worry about how he's going to come back from this injury. For a player that relies almost entirely on athleticism, there's a chance that he is never back to his pre-injury MVP form. It's a scary situation for him and I feel for Bulls fans.

My thoughts on Deron are that I worry about his age and health some as well. Let's face it, he's not a spring chicken anymore. He's nearing 30 and he's had some nagging injuries that seem to pop up every year. If the Blazers were closer to contending and he could be a "missing piece" style player, then I'd probably take the chance. With as far away from contending as the Blazer are, I don't think Deron makes a ton of sense in Portland. That said, the idea of the Nets trading Deron for what basically amounted to their own #6 pick is kinda humorous.

People on RealGM seem to have a hard time understanding context. If a fan says "I wouldn't trade this guy for this more established player", most posters just assume that means "I think this player is better than this more established player". In reality, that's NOT the case. It's that most people don't just look at talent, they look at age, health, fit, future, etc.
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Post#34 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:38 pm by Texas Chuck

Duster,

when you mention a guy like Rose(serious serious injury) or Deron (age and declining performance) I dont think anyone thinks Blazer fans would be crazy to say they wouldnt consider trading Lilliard for them. I agree that doenst make much sense considering where the Blazers are currently.

Some of the other pgs who were mentioned itt are a different story, but I could see that there probably arent more than 5-6 pgs I would trade Lilliard for either when you take contracts,age and injury history into account.
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Post#35 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:55 pm by KembaWalker

He could be a part of a package including expirings and picks for a disgruntled star I suppose. None of those on the market right now that we know of though
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Post#36 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:26 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

If I was offered Irving for him I would take that deal in a second without looking back. In my opinion though, Irving has a higher value than any other PG in the league.

Rondo might be second, since his deal is less than max and he has been killing it this year. However, some off the court/lockerroom things, in addition to his shooting weakness, are concerning enough that I dunno if I would pull the trigger. Tempting though.

I would love to get CP3, but with only a year on his deal who knows if he would be happy staying in Portland and it would be too big of a risk to see him walk. Plus, he has had some knee issues, so I wouldn't take either of those risks for a surer thing.

I am not a huge fan of Westbrook. I recognize the guys elite talent and competitiveness, but I don't like the type of PG he is - largely this is a personal preference, as I prefer the superior shooting and court vision that Lillard has shown at the position. So hate on me if you want, but combined with what it would take to match his salary, I just don't see that as a good deal.

Deron, locked up for 5 years, might not be bad value either. However, the last small market he was in didn't make him happy and he has thrown all of his chips into that Net's franchise, so I could imagine a trade to Portland would rightfully piss him off. So again, with a good up and coming PG, why would Portland risk it?

Both Rose and Rubio are currently out with injury, so while Lillard is currently killing it, Portland would be waiting on a successful rehab. I think people can understand how Portland would be disinclined to wait on an injured player to see if they get better. If they return and look just as good as always, sure it would be more tempting. Still, to give up Lillards scoring for Rubio's play-making seems a little lateral, and matching Rose's salary would be a hurdle in-and-of itself.

Holiday has been having a great season, and is a better defender, so that might be tempting. Still, looking at advanced stats, Lillard has better PER, TS% and eFG% as well as a higher ppg. Holiday has more assists but a lower A/T ratio. Considering I would expect Holiday, despite being the same age, to be more productive considering his greater experience, I am not sure this would be more than a lateral move that costs the Blazers more money.

Lawson has had a down year in terms of scoring. He has more assists and fewer turnovers, but his assist% and turnover% (which take into account a coaches system) are very close to Lillards. At best this is a lateral move, that would cost Portland, so again, not a trade Portland would make.


In sum, although Lillard is not arguably better than any PG I have mentioned (and Portland fans are not really saying he is either), there are good reasons why Portland should hesitate and potentially turn down a trade for most of them. Again, I cannot think of a single reason why we would turn down a trade for Irving.
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Post#37 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:30 pm by Texas Chuck

^^^ very nice post. I think thats a very reasonable position that as an outsider I would agree with except I personally couldnt turn down Westbrook or Rondo for sure and wouldnt consider Deron for even a second.
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Post#38 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:40 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

Texas Chuck wrote:^^^ very nice post. I think thats a very reasonable position that as an outsider I would agree with except I personally couldnt turn down Westbrook or Rondo for sure and wouldnt consider Deron for even a second.


Really I just have a bias against Rondo and Westbrook. That is personal, because I recognize they are elite at what they do (Rondo - manage a team, Westbrook - pressure the D by getting to the rim) in a way that Lillard wont reach. Lillard might be an elite shooter though, which can really open up the floor, while both of those guys kind of cause the defense to collapse into the paint a little (Portland already has issues with this, it causes Aldridge to play away from the rim which is bad bad bad). So it's personal preference, not a knock on those guys talent. Let me say this, both are unquestionably more talented than Lillard.


Also, I completely forgot to mention Parker. He certainly belongs among those other PG's that would deserve consideration, but constantly gets underrated by everyone. His name had to be added to that list, although age and salary would probably have me declining anyways.
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Post#39 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:54 pm by DusterBuster

Essentially, DBR just said exactly what I was trying to convey, but did so clearer and more concisely. The biggest point I was trying to make was that when people see Blazer fans turning down trades, most automatically go to the "OMG, there's those crazy Blazer fans overrating their players again!" without looking at WHY they might be turning down those ideas. Again, no Blazer fan is saying Lillard is better than any of the guys mentioned, but they may like him more than some of the others for a variety of different reasons.
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Post#40 Re: Purely hypothetical: Damian Lillard's val
Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:10 pm by Case2012

Yeah, I pretty much said the same thing first, whatever.
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