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Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum

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Post#31 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:52 pm by Wizenheimer

turk3d wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
turk3d wrote:Batum Shooting 43.1% fg, 35.5 3pt%, 5.4 rpg (per), 2.4 topg (per) so far this season just doesn't excite me too much.

Barnes with 42.8% fg, 31.8%, 6.2 rpg (per), 1.7 topg )per) as a 20 year old rookie excites me a lot more. Not worth the extra money we'd be throwing @ Batum. I want to see where Barnes goes this being just his first year.


that's a bit of cherry-picking

this is Batum's worst shooting year. He's been playing with a bad back and the offense has changed from his first 4 seasons. Batum's career marks in both FG and 3pt shooting are significantly better then this season. I'm much more persuaded by his first 200 games then his last 20

and LOL at pointing out turnovers without mentioning assists. Batum is at 3.4 assists compared to Barnes at 1.6. Significantly changes the perspective on turnovers. You also 'failed' to mention FT shooting. Not a surprise considering Batum is shooting .833 compared to Barnes at .667

impact on their teams? well in the net on-court/off-court differential, Batum has a +4.8 mark while Barnes is a -5.0.

and some other numbers that might add more perspective then the raw numbers you used:

PER: Barnes 10.7....Batum 16.9
Player/Opponent Net PER: Barnes -3.4....Batum +4.1 (at SF)
Player/Opponent Net PER: Barnes +4.5....Batum +16.7 (at SG)
TrueShooting%: Barnes .505....Batum .557
effectiveFG%: Barnes .468....Batum .511
WinShares/48: Barnes .070....Batum .108

it's just fine if you like Barnes more, all things considered, then Batum. You don't need to justify that preference by using a few cherry-picked raw stats. Batum will win any statistical comparison by a wide margin

Cherry picking: not so much. Assists (if you want to talk about career avgs for Batum like you do on the rest) it's just 1.4 and this year they're up because you don't really have any strong passing guards so I imagine that's the reason Batums doing more. But if you want to compare Batum's apg to Barnes you should use per36 to bet a better idea which is just 3.2-2.2. S

So basically Batum's just averaging 1 more apg than Barnes in his rookie year as compared to Batum's 5th (Batum avged just 0.9 apg his first year or 1.8 per36). Look at their first years if you want to get a fair comparison.

Pretty close and definitely not enough of a difference to make this deal at the add on his cost for the next 4 years (especially his last two). We have some good passers on this team so we really don't need Barnes to excel in that area (Curry, Jarret Jack, David Lee, Klay Thompson).


I'll repeat: it's just fine if you like Barnes more. And I'll withdraw the cherry-picking remark as I don't mean to offend you

by the way...I did not use any career averages. Don't know where you're getting that I did

second, whether we're talking per game or per36, pointing out turnover numbers without adding the factor of assist numbers is a skewed comparison. For that matter, not only should any discussion on turnovers include the assist numbers, it should also include usage rate. Players with higher usage rates will almost always have higher turnover rates

and as I mentioned, why point out FG and 3pt percentages without adding FT%? Is it just coincidence that is the one raw shooting stat where Batum had a large advantage?

as far as Batum being a young veteran and Barnes a rookie, that's true. But that also affects their value. Some teams are going to place higher value on current production. Other may elevate the value of 'potential'. If you want to attach the value of potential to Barnes, I have no problem with that. There's no guarantee though, that the potential will be realized

as a matter of fact, for a majority of players it seems that when it comes to those advanced metrics (like the ones I used in my earlier post) there isn't a giant difference between their rookie numbers and where their career numbers are after a few seasons. Certainly, there is usually across the board improvement, but it's not nearly as large as what people would expect. 10-20% better is pretty common
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Post#32 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:09 pm by turk3d

Wizenheimer wrote:I'll repeat: it's just fine if you like Barnes more. And I'll withdraw the cherry-picking remark as I don't mean to offend you

No offense and you can assume some cherry picking when it goes for stats, obviously trying to prove your point not the other guys. And I'm just as willing to have you like Batum more (if you to compare the two straight up, not considering salary and potential) Batum wins hand down.

But if you do include those, then I think it's pretty even and if you take into consideration a teams needs and current circumstances and direction (long term and short term) I think you can make a pretty compelling case for Portland in this deal, more than you can for Golden State. Of course that's my opinion and certainly may not be yours.

Wizenheimer wrote:by the way...I did not use any career averages. Don't know where you're getting that I did

Even though you didn't specifically use it, your comment here sort of implies that.
Wizenheimer wrote:I'm much more persuaded by his first 200 games then his last 20


Wizenheimer wrote:second, whether we're talking per game or per36, pointing out turnover numbers without adding the factor of assist numbers is a skewed comparison. For that matter, not only should any discussion on turnovers include the assist nd as I mentioned, why point out FG and 3pt percentages without adding FT%? Is it just coincidence that is the one raw shooting stat where Batum had a large advantage?

I was just following up what you had posted. You only posted assist numbers if I'm not mistaken.
Wizenheimer wrote:as far as Batum being a young veteran and Barnes a rookie, that's true. But that also affects their value. Some teams are going to place higher value on current production. Other may elevate the value of 'potential'. If you want to attach the value of potential to Barnes, I have no problem with that. There's no guarantee though, that the potential will be realized

One of the biggest factors which you are leaving out (I keep putting it in) is long term salary effects and how it coincides with the overall plan. The Warriors plan is to be in a position to bring in a FA in 2014 when most of their big contracts (worst case) come off the books.

That way if all goes well and they're are a missing piece or two from contending for a ring, they'll have some cash to go after it. And if they are not better off than they are now, they will be in a position to start over, except with a nice core of Curry, Lee (will have just 2 more years) and Klay Thompson and possibly Bogut if he makes it back, that in addition to a few of these rookies that they have, Barnes hopefully being one of them. It really has to do with direction.

Wizenheimer wrote:as a matter of fact, for a majority of players it seems that when it comes to those advanced metrics (like the ones I used in my earlier post) there isn't a giant difference between their rookie numbers and where their career numbers are after a few seasons. Certainly, there is usually across the board improvement, but it's not nearly as large as what people would expect. 10-20% better is pretty common

Look at the first few years for Durant and Westbrook in comparison to what they're doing now. Look at Dirk's first few years. You can even take a look at what did his first few years. Whatever the reason are, I really don't believe that. These are just a few off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more. Especially when you're looking at 20 year olds.
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Post#33 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:12 pm by Wizenheimer

turk3d wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:as a matter of fact, for a majority of players it seems that when it comes to those advanced metrics (like the ones I used in my earlier post) there isn't a giant difference between their rookie numbers and where their career numbers are after a few seasons. Certainly, there is usually across the board improvement, but it's not nearly as large as what people would expect. 10-20% better is pretty common

Look at the first few years for Durant and Westbrook in comparison to what they're doing now. Look at Dirk's first few years. You can even take a look at what did his first few years. Whatever the reason are, I really don't believe that. These are just a few off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more. Especially when you're looking at 20 year olds.


first, I was not suggesting some hard and fast rule. Just that for most players and most of their per36 and advanced metrics, their career numbers after a few years would tend to be only 10-20% better then their rookie numbers (and that's what I said by the way)

Durant:

per36 rookie points 21.1...career 24.8: that fits
per36 rookie assists 2.5...per36 career 2.7: that fits
per36 rookie reb 4.5... per36 career 6.3: doesn't fit
TS% rookie .519....TS% career .585: that fits
FG% & FT% fit...3pt% does not fit

Westbrook

6 of the 7 categories fit my 'rule' while 1, assists/36 does not

Dirk?

I was thinking more along the lines of careers of players comparing their rookie season to their cumulative numbers after 4-7 seasons (about the time they become UFA). Dirk has played 14 seasons. Not only that, he only averaged 20 minutes a game for 47 games his rookie year. Kind of skews things. However, in Dirk's second season, he became a starter with starter's minutes and every single one of the categories I listed above fits the rule for Dirk

Besides all that, you just mentioned 3 superstars. I really don't think you could find equivalency in potential between Durant/Dirk and Batum/Barnes. My guess is that the rule will fit 2nd and 3rd tier players better then superstars. Of course, it fit pretty well with those 3 you named

the one advanced stat that does seem to jump up significantly, mostly for superstar players is PER. But that's pretty understandable

by the way: for Batum, all those categories (and then some) fit the rule except for points/36
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Post#34 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:17 pm by turk3d

Rather than going with these complex metrics (which require more explanation imo) let's just go simple:

Durant's first year, 43% fg%, 28.8 3pt%, 4.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg. 0.9 bpg, 2.9 topg (3.0 per36)
Durant this year, 50.8 fg% (up), 43.0 3pt (up)%, 8.5 rpg (up almost double), 4.3 apg (almost double), 1.5 spg (up 50%), 1.4 bpg (up ~50%), 3.2 topg (2.9 per36) - about same

Westbrook by year
FG% 39.8%, 41.8%, 44.2%, 45.7%, 41.8% (too early to tell imo)
3PT% 27.1%, 22.1%, 33%, 31.6%, 37% (best even so far in 5th year if it holds up, 10% higher than in first year)
Rebounds are about the same
Assists 5.3, 8.0, 8.2, 5.5 (seems like an anomaly), 8.6 (seems to be more normal but appreciable jump from year 1)
spg 1.3, 1.3, 1.9, 1.7, 2.0
TOs pretty much the same (except for middle years 3.9 and 3.6)
PPG 15.3, 16.1, 21.9, 23.6, 21.1

Looking @ Dirk (did you ever consider that he didn't play that much maybe because he wasn't playing all that good back then?)
Year 1 40.5% fg%, 20.6 fg%, 6.1 rpg (per36), 1.8 apg (per36), 2.7 topg (per36), 14.5 ppg (per36)
Career 47.5% fg%, 38% fg%, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.0 topg, 22.7 ppg (all these numbers are per36 to normalize)

Even KG (who shot @ 49.1% from the field his rookie year averaged only 7.9 rpg in year 1 in comparison to his career average of 10.4 in addition to him scoring just 13.1 ppg (all per36) in comparison to 19.1 for his career.

I believe you said that you don't think it's that different for most players early in their career and that the ones I've chosen are just superstars. I disagree. Are there any statistics out there that prove this? Basically what I think you are theorizing would imply that players don't (or can't) improve throughout their careers. I say it's the opposite in most cases, they should and they do.

I have to figure that a very talented 20 year old Harrison Barnes (who btw didn't have a very good game this evening) is going to improve throughout his career. I'm sure that's what Portland was thinking when they first drafted Batum (or at least was hoping).

I think that with Batum (who from what I can see using the same analysis I used above) has been pretty consistent throughout his career (even starting from season 1) is more the exception, rather than the rule. At least this is how I see it. Thanks for the discussion.
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Post#35 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:20 am by RoyalWun

Both say no.

Leave it at that.
Portland:

D. Lillard | S. Blake
W. Matthews | W. Barton | C. McCollum | A. Crabbe
N. Batum | D. Wright | V. Claver
L. Aldridge | T. Robinson
R. Lopez | C. Kaman | J. Freeland | M. Leonard
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Post#36 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:40 am by Wizenheimer

turk3d wrote:Rather than going with these complex metrics (which require more explanation imo) let's just go simple:

Durant's first year, 43% fg%, 28.8 3pt%, 4.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg. 0.9 bpg, 2.9 topg (3.0 per36)
Durant this year, 50.8 fg% (up), 43.0 3pt (up)%, 8.5 rpg (up almost double), 4.3 apg (almost double), 1.5 spg (up 50%), 1.4 bpg (up ~50%), 3.2 topg (2.9 per36) - about same


now you're arguing either with yourself or somebody else, not with me

I said per36 and advanced metrics for a reason, and I specifically said career numbers, not "this" year numbers, whatever single season it is

we were having a discussion a while back in the Blazer forum, several discussions actually, about how soon in a player's career you could start assuming you were seeing what he would actually become, compared to what was an unrealistic projection of potential

Myself and some others in the Blazer forum spent time looking at the careers of a lot of players compared to their 1st and 2nd years. It turned out to be pretty much the case that the 2nd year per36 and advanced numbers were really quite predictive of career numbers. And even that rookie numbers were predictive to a regular degree. Rookie numbers were less reliable, but that 10-20% better rule covered a lot of cases. As I said, it's not anything like an ironclad predictor but the times it fits far outnumber the times it doesn't.

as I said, you're trying to argue against something I never claimed to be the case. I know Durant has had a phenomenal season so far. He's just starting to enter his prime. But he could tail off this year. It may even be probable that he will. But it is still the case that the rookie and career comparisons are true. And if you match 2nd year numbers to career numbers, there are no exceptions to the rule for Durant. At least none that I can see

Look at your Warriors:

Curry - no exceptions
Lee - one exception, points/36
Thompson - too early
Landry - no excepions (actually has gone down is some categories)
Jack - one exception, 3pt%
Jefferson - one exception, 3pt%
Bogut - no exceptions
Rush - no exceptions
Biedrens - LOL

we were talking about this in the Blazer forum because we had tended to overrate the value of potential for a lot of Blazer players. Get emotionally invested in a player, project a ceiling that turned out to be unrealistic, and then end up disappointed with the player about the time their rookie deal was up...maybe sooner

obviously, a player in his prime will generally perform much better then he did as a rookie. The gap will be less when weighed against his 2nd season. But if you know his 1st and 2nd year numbers, and can then project career trajectory based upon those numbers, maybe you can even gauge where his best seasons will fall. I haven't taken it that far...yet... :wink:
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Post#37 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:12 am by turk3d

Wizenheimer wrote:
turk3d wrote:Rather than going with these complex metrics (which require more explanation imo) let's just go simple:

Durant's first year, 43% fg%, 28.8 3pt%, 4.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg. 0.9 bpg, 2.9 topg (3.0 per36)
Durant this year, 50.8 fg% (up), 43.0 3pt (up)%, 8.5 rpg (up almost double), 4.3 apg (almost double), 1.5 spg (up 50%), 1.4 bpg (up ~50%), 3.2 topg (2.9 per36) - about same


now you're arguing either with yourself or somebody else, not with me

I said per36 and advanced metrics for a reason, and I specifically said career numbers, not "this" year numbers, whatever single season it is

we were having a discussion a while back in the Blazer forum, several discussions actually, about how soon in a player's career you could start assuming you were seeing what he would actually become, compared to what was an unrealistic projection of potential

Myself and some others in the Blazer forum spent time looking at the careers of a lot of players compared to their 1st and 2nd years. It turned out to be pretty much the case that the 2nd year per36 and advanced numbers were really quite predictive of career numbers. And even that rookie numbers were predictive to a regular degree. Rookie numbers were less reliable, but that 10-20% better rule covered a lot of cases. As I said, it's not anything like an ironclad predictor but the times it fits far outnumber the times it doesn't.

as I said, you're trying to argue against something I never claimed to be the case. I know Durant has had a phenomenal season so far. He's just starting to enter his prime. But he could tail off this year. It may even be probable that he will. But it is still the case that the rookie and career comparisons are true. And if you match 2nd year numbers to career numbers, there are no exceptions to the rule for Durant. At least none that I can see

Look at your Warriors:

Curry - no exceptions
Lee - one exception, points/36
Thompson - too early
Landry - no excepions (actually has gone down is some categories)
Jack - one exception, 3pt%
Jefferson - one exception, 3pt%
Bogut - no exceptions
Rush - no exceptions
Biedrens - LOL

we were talking about this in the Blazer forum because we had tended to overrate the value of potential for a lot of Blazer players. Get emotionally invested in a player, project a ceiling that turned out to be unrealistic, and then end up disappointed with the player about the time their rookie deal was up...maybe sooner

obviously, a player in his prime will generally perform much better then he did as a rookie. The gap will be less when weighed against his 2nd season. But if you know his 1st and 2nd year numbers, and can then project career trajectory based upon those numbers, maybe you can even gauge where his best seasons will fall. I haven't taken it that far...yet... :wink:

OK. Then we'll wait until after his 2nd year before we consider trading him. Thanks for the info. :D
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Post#38 Re: Warriors/Blazers Barnes for Batum
Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:22 am by DaVoiceMaster

Batum's role is completely different this season from his first four seasons. With Nate McMillan as coach, Batum's role was to simply stand in the corner and wait for someone to toss him the ball to shoot. This year, he's a whole lot more involved in the offense, creating for himself and others. Batum is only 24 years old so keeping him for the rebuild makes sense. Sure, he's paid a smidge more than we would have liked, but not by all that much (maybe $1.5 million a year). The guy is playing hurt right now and still producing fairly well.

With Batum, we know what we have. Wth Barnes, no one really knows just yet what they have. Will he be as good as Batum? Maybe, maybe not. I get why Warriors fans are excited about him, Blazer fans have had their share of players over the last 5 years to get excited about, as well. Not all of those players turned out so giving up on a sure thing for potential doesn't work in my book.
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