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Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolph trade

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Post#1 Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolph tr
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:30 pm by jowglenn

So we've established that a lot of people are wary of Rudy Gay's contract, and opinion widely varies on what the Grizzlies can get back for him.

I think in the background, much more quietly, the Memphis people are looking around at trading Zach Randolph. They see that it might be difficult to move Gay, but in their conversations with other GMs there is the ulterior motive of seeing what Randolph-based offers come up organically, without tipping their hand that they want to move him.

"But jowglenn, Randolph finally put his issues behind him, he's been an All-Star level player in Memphis!"

OK. Yeah I get that.

"But, he's such a force of nature on the low block! Impossible to defend when he's got it going!"

Mostly true.

"But jowglenn, the Grizzlies are a contender this year!"

Are they?

Really?

I mean, I guess I could see it. But I think the early-season optimism has been replaced by a bit of a return to earth.



Here is the issue though:

Point one: AGE

Zach Randolph is 31 years old. He is being paid 16 mil this year, 17.8 mil next year, and 16.5 mil the year after that. In the summer of 2015 he will turn 34 years old and be a free agent (barring some extension?). IF (and I say if) you're going to trade Randolph, it is better to do so now rather than later. Gay is 26, Gasol is 27. Conley is 25. Zach Randolph is the elder statesman of the Memphis Grizzlies, believe it or not. If you're going to trade one of your core players, why not trade the oldest one?

Point two: VALUE PEAK

Randolph's trade value will very likely never be higher than it is now. He is a monster player who provides an incredibly steady and consistent combination of scoring and rebounding. But he's getting older, his scoring has declined, he was injured a bit last year... it all adds up to his general value as an NBA player peaking right around now (or maybe next year even) and then declining, nobody knows how fast (given his post skills, I think he could play quite a few more effective years given the right conditioning, but that's an argument for zach randolph in 2015)

Point three: TRADE OPTIONS

With Gay, you kind of have to look for the perfect trade that can specifically fill that small forward spot without massively overloading you with useless bigs. You see a trade, and you think, "damn the value is there, but the fit is just... not right." Usually because there is some big man coming back on a decent salary and you're thinking, "gasol+randolph+thisguy+speights... that's way too much money for a big rotation". With Randolph, you can get any kinds of players back, as I'll show you.


TRADE CONCEPTS

I'd like to consider Randolph to be a "elite specialist" in the sense that his value in specific areas of the game is crucial, while he is merely average in some other areas.

His elite skills: post scoring and rebounding.

So find a team that needs that and get cooking people.


Here's one idea:

BUCKS TRADE: Sam Dalembert, Mbah a Moute, John Henson, Ekpe Udoh

GRIZZLIES TRADE: Zach Randolph, Pondexter, Hamed Haddadi, Darrell Arthur?

Why for Bucks: consolidate this insane glut of forwards into an all-star level player like Zach Randolph. Resolve all your offensive issues nicely.

Jennings/Udrih
Monta/Lamb?
Ilyasova/Pondexter?/Dunleavy/Harris?
Randolph/Ily/Gooden
Sanders/Haddadi/Arthur.../uhhhh

Take a run in the east, which after Miami, is fairly wide open. Fear the Deer!

Why for Memphis:

1. Expiring Dalembert. Cut off a huge chunk of the future money, escape the luxury tax for the next few years and breathe a lot easier.

2. Depth. If you move Randolph, you want either one clear solid key piece back, or you want good young depth. Henson is a project (but remember - Gay is 26. Gasol is 27. Conley is 25. We can wait a year or two, this kid could be special, no joke) but Udoh is playing well right now, and Mbah a Moute - who doesn't love that guy?

Instead of paying Randolph 17.8 million next season, you pay Udoh/Moute/Henson a combined 11 million.

Conley/Bayless
Allen/Ellington
Gay/Moute
Speights/Henson/moute
Gasol/Udoh/Dalembert


Very deep nice team.

BAM that's your Randolph trade, watch that **** go down like I claim it will.
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Post#2 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:42 pm by bryanoid

We pass on that trade easily. Ilyasova doesn't play SF c'mon bro. Learn a little bit about our players before involving then in your trade. I would hardly trade of those guys for Randolph, let alone all three.

Anyway Joe Johnson is our destiny not Randolph
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Post#3 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:47 pm by jowglenn

Zach Randolph is literally better than any player on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to be clear, you know.
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Post#4 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:59 pm by cucad8

jowglenn wrote:Zach Randolph is literally better than any player on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to be clear, you know.

yet all the reasons you just laid out for Memphis to get rid of him come up fo Milwaukee acquiring him. Old, big contract, not a contender.
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Post#5 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 9:23 pm by Jase

jowglenn wrote:Zach Randolph is literally better than any player on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to be clear, you know.


Milwaukee's fan base is literally less condescending than you.

Just to be clear, you know.

And to clarify further, all of your points (namely age, and we'll throw in salary because it's the elephant in the room) are why Milwaukee declines this trade. It isn't an issue of how much "better" Randolph is. Randolph is obviously better than Henson, or Dally, or Luc, or their shot-happy backcourt. But all of their young forwards are younger than Z-Bo, and their best days are ahead of them.
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Post#6 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 9:28 pm by RoyalWun

Zach Randolph + Wayne Ellington for DeSagana Diop + Ben Gordon
Portland:

D. Lillard | S. Blake
W. Matthews | W. Barton | C. McCollum | A. Crabbe
N. Batum | D. Wright | V. Claver
L. Aldridge | T. Robinson
R. Lopez | C. Kaman | J. Freeland | M. Leonard
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Post#7 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 9:37 pm by jowglenn

Jase wrote:
jowglenn wrote:Zach Randolph is literally better than any player on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to be clear, you know.


Milwaukee's fan base is literally less condescending than you.

Just to be clear, you know.

And to clarify further, all of your points (namely age, and we'll throw in salary because it's the elephant in the room) are why Milwaukee declines this trade. It isn't an issue of how much "better" Randolph is. Randolph is obviously better than Henson, or Dally, or Luc, or their shot-happy backcourt. But all of their young forwards are younger than Z-Bo, and their best days are ahead of them.


Right, and there is a very good possibility; in fact, a likelihood, that neither henson nor udoh will ever be as good as Randolph is right now. You get 3 solid years of a true offensive anchor here, it's not like I'm selling you a dishwasher or pau gasol or something.
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Post#8 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 9:45 pm by Case2012

I think it's a good trade. There's a lot of pressure for the bucks to make the play offs and this does that. Zbo would be a great low post compliment to their high scoring back court and allow those guys to play with more freedom. Are they contenders? No, but what are they doing now? They just gonna wait and hope their young bigs breakout, or are they going to give their fans a play off series or two for the next few years?

I don't know why it really makes sense for the Griz though? They're built to win now, and if they trade either or both of those guys, what's their end game? Total rebuild? Who do they play at the 3? They'd be too good to get high prospects in the draft...so they pay someone else max money? I don't get it.
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Post#9 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 10:05 pm by BossHoggin

jowglenn wrote:Zach Randolph is literally better than any player on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to be clear, you know.
Who pissed in your cornflakes?

Cleveland should take on Randolph because he is better than any other big and they need to pay people next year!!

Do you ever consider team direction? No? Didn't think so. People are allowed to disagree with you
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Post#10 Re: Gay trade talk is smokescreen for Randolp
Tue Jan 8, 2013 11:02 pm by Dr Positivity

Yes, I would probably trade Zbo intead of Gay if I was the Grizzlies - because of age as you mentioned.

I would call Utah about Paul Millsap, who'd be a perfect fit beside Conley, Allen, Gay and Marc Gasol. Millsap and Mo's expiring for Zbo fits. Utah basically commits to having neither Millsap or Jefferson on the team after this season, instead plugging in Zbo long term at PF beside Favors and Kanter
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