Poll: Where will Josh Smith land?

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Where will Josh Smith play after the deadline?

Atlanta Hawks
16
11%
Boston Celtics
20
14%
Brooklyn Nets
5
4%
Milwaukee Bucks
28
20%
Philadelphia 76ers
2
1%
Dallas Mavericks
8
6%
Houston Rockets
23
16%
Phoenix Suns
14
10%
San Antonio Spurs
8
6%
Other
16
11%
 
Total votes: 140

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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#121 » by theatlfan » Tue May 7, 2013 11:27 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
theatlfan wrote:Still thinking that ATL is still the most likely landing spot - maybe on a 1-year deal. After that, I see DET as the most likely destination if he signs outright. The real question would be who, if anyone, looks into SNT possibilities with him - then things could get very interesting...


I would be really really really shocked if he signed a 1 year deal.

Don't be. For Smith, his service time clock goes from 9 years to 10. The difference in the max contract between those two points goes from $15.5M to $18 which just serves as a starting point for the contract. Also, he retains his Bird Rights with the team. For ATL, we can move our cap space forward a year and since it's only 1 year, we'd probably not have too much of an issue just giving him the max.

Don't think it'll happen unless certain scenarios play out, but if this board is indicative of the NBA FO thinking, then I might even call the scenarios likely.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#122 » by HartfordWhalers » Tue May 7, 2013 11:51 pm

theatlfan wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
theatlfan wrote:Still thinking that ATL is still the most likely landing spot - maybe on a 1-year deal. After that, I see DET as the most likely destination if he signs outright. The real question would be who, if anyone, looks into SNT possibilities with him - then things could get very interesting...


I would be really really really shocked if he signed a 1 year deal.

Don't be. For Smith, his service time clock goes from 9 years to 10. The difference in the max contract between those two points goes from $15.5M to $18 which just serves as a starting point for the contract. Also, he retains his Bird Rights with the team. For ATL, we can move our cap space forward a year and since it's only 1 year, we'd probably not have too much of an issue just giving him the max.

Don't think it'll happen unless certain scenarios play out, but if this board is indicative of the NBA FO thinking, then I might even call the scenarios likely.


So Josh Smith forgoes any certainty of any money beyond 1 year's worth because he plans on getting a deal that would be at 18m in 2 years instead of at 16m? I'm not seeing it at all.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#123 » by theatlfan » Wed May 8, 2013 2:13 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:So Josh Smith forgoes any certainty of any money beyond 1 year's worth because he plans on getting a deal that would be at 18m in 2 years instead of at 16m? I'm not seeing it at all.
... or Josh doesn't get much love in UFA (everyone is trying to get him at their price instead of what he thinks he's worth) and decides it'd be worth it to some distance from a below average (for him) statistical performance this past season before going at it again next year...
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#124 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed May 8, 2013 3:17 am

theatlfan wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:So Josh Smith forgoes any certainty of any money beyond 1 year's worth because he plans on getting a deal that would be at 18m in 2 years instead of at 16m? I'm not seeing it at all.
... or Josh doesn't get much love in UFA (everyone is trying to get him at their price instead of what he thinks he's worth) and decides it'd be worth it to some distance from a below average (for him) statistical performance this past season before going at it again next year...


I had a bad year, lets not grab security and instead wait for the year when twice as many good players are free agents? I'm sorry this is all baffling from a Smith perspective, even if it works very well for Atlanta.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#125 » by tbhawksfan » Wed May 8, 2013 7:44 am

When was the last time one of the top FAs took a one year deal when the market has always been willing to give so much more? Out on a limb...grasping at straws....

I'd much rather play with the idea that we can get something for Smith (with some semblance of reality)
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#126 » by theatlfan » Wed May 8, 2013 3:17 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:I had a bad year, lets not grab security and instead wait for the year when twice as many good players are free agents? I'm sorry this is all baffling from a Smith perspective, even if it works very well for Atlanta.

Will the market give him the security though? It could. I agree that if someone is offering max (or near enough to) money then he'll sign with whoever makes that offer. Considering his RFA and the fact he's already declined a 3 year/$45M extension with us, I know he's looking to get paid and for awhile. So yes, if he got $16M in the 2nd year of a contract (as you put above), then I'd guess it'd be a no-brainer that he'd sign the contract (which quick math puts around 4/~$66M).

Could he command that? As I stated above, put a post on here that team X will sign him for something close to the max - even as an AAV - and it seems that people will sign up with this site simply to refute the notion. I don't really know where his market would land across those posters though. Maybe it is the 4/$66M above, but if it's closer to 4 years / $40M, then the 1 year deal would definitely be in play. Play for a year @ $18M (I was looking at the wrong numbers before when I was looking for his max - $15.5M was for the '11-'12 season), put a season between this past season and his UFA period, and re-enter FA next year with a higher cap. Even if he has another sub-par season, then he'd still make money over the initial offer if he was able to command a 3 year/$20M offer next off-season considering the time value of money... maybe even with a non-tax MLE offer all things considered.

Some things about the interviews I've seen with Josh recently: he understands the business side of the NBA (more so than I would have figured actually) and he marches to the beat of his own drummer. Remember that he was drafted with Josh Childress and the decisions he made in RFA. No, I don't expect Smoove to run overseas (and definitely not to the Grecian market) but I could see him making a move that several don't expect especially if he's put into a corner where his accounting would get creative.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#127 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed May 8, 2013 3:48 pm

So the scenario is the best 4 year contract that Josh can get is 10m a year for 4 years, but Atlanta is willing to pay an 18m a year 1 year deal?

Okay, I guess in that situation it does seems reasonable, even likely that he takes 18m for 1 year. However, that scenario sounds pretty absurd.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#128 » by Trader_Joe » Wed May 8, 2013 4:15 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:So the scenario is the best 4 year contract that Josh can get is 10m a year for 4 years, but Atlanta is willing to pay an 18m a year 1 year deal?

Okay, I guess in that situation it does seems reasonable, even likely that he takes 18m for 1 year. However, that scenario sounds pretty absurd.

Yeah, I'd say it's about a 1% chance he takes a one year deal.
It would be one thing if he took the 1 year qualifying offer to avoid being restricted, but this seems far fetched.

Multiple teams will make offers for Smith and I'm guessing he gets at least 4/50.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#129 » by tbhawksfan » Wed May 8, 2013 4:36 pm

4/50 sounds about right. I'm hoping that instead of ending up with a team that has the cap to sign him, Ferry finds him a suitable S&T to bring the Hawks something back. If he just walks, we get cap and can put his monet towards Al Jeff or maybe make a run at Pelovic.

If I were Ferry, I'd try to get an argeement with someone like Houston for a young guy or two and a pick. Offer a resonable trade in order to get it done and bring back some interesting pieces instead of just cap space. We have enough of that.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#130 » by Sasaki » Wed May 8, 2013 4:55 pm

If I were Ferry, I'd try to get an argeement with someone like Houston for a young guy or two and a pick.

If by "young guy" you mean Twitterboy, sure. But aside from him, why would we send in Jones, Motiejunas, or Robinson?
But do you know what they call a fool, who's full of himself and jumps into the path of death because it's cool?
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#131 » by Trader_Joe » Wed May 8, 2013 5:00 pm

Sasaki wrote:
If I were Ferry, I'd try to get an argeement with someone like Houston for a young guy or two and a pick.

If by "young guy" you mean Twitterboy, sure. But aside from him, why would we send in Jones, Motiejunas, or Robinson?

Yeah, given Houston has enough to sign him outright and there are no benefits to a sign and trade at this point (no more 5th year or higher raises), there is no reason for Houston to do it.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#132 » by tbhawksfan » Wed May 8, 2013 5:10 pm

The only reason I can think of is to snag him at a low cost to get him for sure instead of bidding for him on the open market. He will likely be one of the highest rated FAs and other teams could run up the bill. If he'd agree to a reasonable deal and a team can get him by only giving up a decent young prospect and a late first, it might be worth it.

There are other teams that don't have the cap and could get him by trading some salary. IF DH and CP aren"t available, the FA market is going to be pretty thin after Smith and Jefferson.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#133 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed May 8, 2013 5:14 pm

tbhawksfan wrote:The only reason I can think of is to snag him at a low cost to get him for sure instead of bidding for him on the open market. He will likely be one of the highest rated FAs and other teams could run up the bill. If he'd agree to a reasonable deal and a team can get him by only giving up a decent young prospect and a late first, it might be worth it.

There are other teams that don't have the cap and could get him by trading some salary. IF DH and CP aren"t available, the FA market is going to be pretty thin after Smith and Jefferson.


How does doing a S&T get him any cheaper? He will hit the market either way. Just really not following this.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#134 » by Trader_Joe » Wed May 8, 2013 5:30 pm

tbhawksfan wrote:The only reason I can think of is to snag him at a low cost to get him for sure instead of bidding for him on the open market. He will likely be one of the highest rated FAs and other teams could run up the bill. If he'd agree to a reasonable deal and a team can get him by only giving up a decent young prospect and a late first, it might be worth it.

There are other teams that don't have the cap and could get him by trading some salary. IF DH and CP aren"t available, the FA market is going to be pretty thin after Smith and Jefferson.

I don't follow either, but I just want to add, this year's crop is actually kind of deep.

Paul
Dwight
Bynum
Iggy
D.West
Smith
Milsap
Jefferson
Pekovic
Mayo
K.Martin
Ellis
Splitter
Teague
Jennings
Jack
Manu
Reddick
T.Allen
Korver
T.Evans

And because it's the summer before the extra punitive tax kicks in, I'm not sure teams going on a spending spree and thus I think there will be some quality bargains to be had.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#135 » by tbhawksfan » Wed May 8, 2013 5:31 pm

Yeah, I guess if he wanted to play for Houston, he could just sign there for less. But, just because a team wants him doesn't mean they'll get him. Another team could have a better offer and the first would miss out or the price could go up a lot if two or more teams really want him.

He could be enticed to go to a team that he would like, accepting a deal that would be lower than what the bidding in FA could bring, but it would be for the good of the team's salary situation. It might cost him a few million over the deal, but if he's playing where he wants, it could entice him.

If the team trading for him give up marginal value to get what they see as the best FA for them at a reasonable rate...
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#136 » by Jow128 » Wed May 8, 2013 5:49 pm

That doesn't make any sense at all.

He'll either decide on his own that he wants less money and a better situation or he'll decide on his own that he wants to go to the highest bidder. He doesn't need Atlanta in either scenario unless the team of his choosing doesn't have cap room (read: not Houston).

Even in the unlikely event Houston is able to convince Dwight Howard and Josh Smith to come, they have better options to clear space than giving assets away for free to Atlanta or LA.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#137 » by Xman » Wed May 8, 2013 6:54 pm

The only ATL gets assets in a S&T is if the team signing Smith needs to dump a salary. For instance, say Houston signs Howard and then wants JSmith. It could be done - but several contracts need to be moved.

Hou: keeping - Harden 13.7, TJ, 1.5, Motie 1.4, Parsons .9, GSmith .9, Beverly .8 (19.2 in 6 spots)
Might move: Asik/Lin 5.225/8.375, TRob 3.5, RWhite 1.7

In a Howard signing scenario - then Rox would have to move at least one of Asik/Lin and possibly TRob and RWhite.
But, each of those guys have value - CLE or Charlotte (or other under the cap teams) would pay somethhing to take those guys = the one exception might be RWhite since he is a nutjob - but if you could get him for free for just paying him then someone would take him.
So, if Rox could get Howard, then the question is what could they get for giving someone Asik/Lin/TRob - but not taking back any sizeable salary.
So, do not see reason to include anything to ATL.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#138 » by Trader_Joe » Wed May 8, 2013 7:06 pm

Xman wrote:The only ATL gets assets in a S&T is if the team signing Smith needs to dump a salary. For instance, say Houston signs Howard and then wants JSmith. It could be done - but several contracts need to be moved.

Hou: keeping - Harden 13.7, TJ, 1.5, Motie 1.4, Parsons .9, GSmith .9, Beverly .8 (19.2 in 6 spots)
Might move: Asik/Lin 5.225/8.375, TRob 3.5, RWhite 1.7

In a Howard signing scenario - then Rox would have to move at least one of Asik/Lin and possibly TRob and RWhite.
But, each of those guys have value - CLE or Charlotte (or other under the cap teams) would pay somethhing to take those guys = the one exception might be RWhite since he is a nutjob - but if you could get him for free for just paying him then someone would take him.
So, if Rox could get Howard, then the question is what could they get for giving someone Asik/Lin/TRob - but not taking back any sizeable salary.
So, do not see reason to include anything to ATL.

Does Houston really have anywhere near that cap space?

I thought I read they technically don't have enough to offer Dwight a max contract starting at $20m

Lin - 8.3
Asik - 8.3
Harden - 13.7
T.Rob - 3.5
Motejunas - 1.4
T.Jones - 1.4
White - 1.7
Parsons - 1
Smith - 1
Anderson - 1
=
$41m

If the cap stays at $58m they can offer $17m, but a max for Dwight I think is over $20m starting.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#139 » by Jow128 » Wed May 8, 2013 7:33 pm

Anderson and Smith are both unguaranteed.

I would guess that the first move Houston will attempt is a White dump for some of our pile of second round picks/cash/euro rights. He is only owed 1.7m and is still pretty talented, so we should be able to pull off space/TPE for him without too much trouble. That right there is roughly Dwight's 20.5m starting salary.

I also think that the cap will likely be higher than $58m, but noone can know until later this summer. I've seen guesses as high as 61, but more seem to think it'll be 59 to 60.
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Re: Poll: Where will Josh Smith land? 

Post#140 » by Run PDX » Wed May 8, 2013 7:46 pm

I was thinking that Atlanta might be able to work out a way to have Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Chris Paul... if they trade Al Horford to a team with cap space - like Dallas, Portland, or Sacramento.

Would Atlanta take #10, cap space, and Wes Matthews for Al Horford and filler?

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