oyoyer wrote:Best case scenario: Knicks move up into the top 3, Heat miss the playoffs
Worst case scenario: Knicks make playoffs, Heat miss playoffs
Considering the first is the far more likely scenario than the 2nd, and it also accounts for the fact it's possible the Knicks could jump even the Sixers own pick in the lottery, I think it's a fair deal to eat the ~7m left on Amare at the deadline to get the Knicks out of the repeater tax. Maybe they throw a little something extra like Thanasis too, to cover the worst case scenario?
I think people seem to be drastically overestimating how bad the Knicks will be. Even if they made zero improvements from last year, they still have an outside chance at making the playoffs in the East, with two teams significantly depleted from where they were last year (Indiana, Heat). I think the Knicks were 9th on the outside looking in, but they could easily sneak in at a 7th or 8th seed in the east. If you're not talking about moving up any more than 3-5 spots in the middle of the draft, or possibly not at all, frankly, I don't see any reason to make this deal. Let the Knicks pay the repeater tax and continue to hamper their ability to future. That's probably worth just as much as such a minimal (if at all) improvement in draft position.
The person who said we should view it from our perspective and not the Knicks is missing the point. There are literally no other teams that could help the Knicks in the same way, since we are the only team with that kind of cap space. If in fact, the Knicks actually decided that they wanted to get out of the luxury tax, Philly is the only team that can do anything to help them. That is far greater leverage that the offer of a single possible pick swap can offer.
To be honest, if I were the Sixers and this opportunity came about, I would start the trade offer with the right to pick swap for at least the next two (2015/2017) drafts they have picks for AND their 2018 1st rounder. $50M is no small sum of money. In any given year, you would easily be able to buy 10+ lower first round draft picks with that kind of money. You're not helping the Knicks out of a $50M bill without squeezing as much as possible out of them to do it.