BKN-MIN-CHA

[Note30]

This trade because I'm temperamental, and don't really judge things well after seeing our players perform poorly 1 game out of 82.

Charlotte - Brooklyn - Minnesota

At the Dec deadline:

Charlotte sends: Gerald Henderson, 1st round pick
Charlotte receives: Corey Brewer, 2016 2nd rounder Nets

Brooklyn sends: Kevin Garnett, 2016 2nd rounder
Brooklyn receives: Kevin Martin

Minnesota sends: Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer
Minnesota receives: Gerald Henderson, Kevin Garnett, Charlotte's 1st

[Mamba4Goat]

Would this work salary wise for MN?

[Note30]

Would this work salary wise for MN?

ya. 6.0M in KLove TPE absorbs henderson

[slicedbread2]

I think Charlotte would easily pass.

They'd love to move Henderson, but they aren't in any need to move him plus using a first rounder will definitely make Cho pass. Plus Warren is injured right now and if they really need a 3, they could just trade Neal's expiring for say someone like Jared Dudley for instance.

Brooklyn says no because Martin's deal cuts into their 2016 free agency cap space. His salary looks like a bargain as the new CBA progresses, but it's a bit too long for the Nets liking. Plus even though KG is running on fumes at this point, they'd rather hold onto him as they feel his world class experience as an all-time great can help Plumlee out quite a bit and he's an expiring. Plus KG has a no-trade clause and I doubt he'd waive it to go to Minnesota. He loves the fans, but he resents Glen Taylor for really wasting his time and after Taylor questioned whether or not Garnett was intentionally tanking his final year in the twin cities, that guaranteed that he was never coming back unless Taylor was gone.

Minnesota wouldn't mind this deal, but they'd be extremely challenged offensively due to their lack of consistent 3 point shooting and spacing would be a huge problem. They probably stay pat for now and wait till the deadline or February to make moves.

[Texas Chuck]

Can't imagine Charlotte gives a first to turn Hendo in Brewer.

[shrink]

Can't imagine Charlotte gives a first to turn Hendo in Brewer.

I think you're probably right, but don't we hope that a late first round pick will turn into a Brewer-level player? A pick in the 20's may be a miss, occasionally a starter, but if you can get a rotation player at that range, that's better than expected (though Brewer is now more expensive $4.7, $4.9, but more reliable).

Moreover, this isn't the addition of Brewer, but the subtraction of Henderson's $6 mil, $6 mil contract. What incentive would most people here say that it would take to turn Henderson's two-year deal into an unproductive expiring? Is Brewer's valuable comparable to that expiring?

I agree though - CHA isn't in a position where they'd give up a protected pick. but like Note said, maybe at the deadline, if the season puts them well into playoff contention.

[Texas Chuck]

Sure I think if picking in the 20's you found a Corey Brewer level player its absolutely a win. But I'd say the same thing about Gerald Henderson as well.

Now I'd rather have Brewer on a good team than Henderson because I think his skills are more useful, but there probably aren't more than 10-12 minutes to be had for either guy if all goes right and I wouldn't want to lose the flexibility of being able to trade my pick for a small upgrade and a little money savings especially when Hendo might do them the favor of opting out.

[shrink]

The main reason I wanted to post though was my continual surprise how REALGM posters seem to lump all expirings as the same value (neutral to even positive). Kevin Martin for Kevin Garnett is a really bad deal.

Kevin Garnett isn't just an expiring, he's a $12 million dollar expiring. That's $12 million real dollars that some owner will be paying him, and for those that ignore an owner's pocketbook because he's rich, think of it as $12 mil of your team's payroll lost for the season. In a head-to-head game, getting even slightly more production from your payroll may mean the difference between a win and a loss. Garnett will produce nowhere near his $12 mil salary this season. He is not a good contract because he's expiring, or even a neutral one - he is a very bad contract.

Some may want to say the same about Kevin Martin, and I won't debate them on their views. However, I would think everyone would say that Martin will produce somewhere close to his salary, of $22 mil for three years production. With the rising cap, there is a good chance that won't even be the MLE, and Martin will produce better than the average player over the next three years -- even if he falls short, it won't be by as much as Garnett will lag this season.

I understand that people here love the idea of future financial flexibility, but not all expirings are not equal. Nobody pays $100 now so they don't have to pay $20 later.

[Golabki]

Brewer is better than Henderson, but it's close. The difference isn't worth a first rounder.

[Golabki]

Can't imagine Charlotte gives a first to turn Hendo in Brewer.

I think you're probably right, but don't we hope that a late first round pick will turn into a Brewer-level player? A pick in the 20's may be a miss, occasionally a starter, but if you can get a rotation player at that range, that's better than expected (though Brewer is now more expensive $4.7, $4.9, but more reliable).

This is the wrong way to think about pick value.

Why do teams want late first round picks?
1 - it's a fungible asset that can be easily packaged in a later trade.
2 - there is a decent chance you can find a quality role-player that will be locked into a very cheap rookie scale deal
3 - there is some chance, although very small, you could find an all-star caliber player

None of those things are properties of Brewer at this point. Brewer is a decent role-player on a fair contract. If that's what you want you sign a guy in the off-season, you don't trade a first for that kind of asset unless you are desperate. And Cha isn't in a desperate situation at all. They are actually pretty deep on the wings in my view.

[Texas Chuck]

Spoiler:

The main reason I wanted to post though was my continual surprise how REALGM posters seem to lump all expirings as the same value (neutral to even positive). Kevin Martin for Kevin Garnett is a really bad deal.

Kevin Garnett isn't just an expiring, he's a $12 million dollar expiring. That's $12 million real dollars that some owner will be paying him, and for those that ignore an owner's pocketbook because he's rich, think of it as $12 mil of your team's payroll lost for the season. In a head-to-head game, getting even slightly more production from your payroll may mean the difference between a win and a loss. Garnett will produce nowhere near his $12 mil salary this season. He is not a good contract because he's expiring, or even a neutral one - he is a very bad contract.

Some may want to say the same about Kevin Martin, and I won't debate them on their views. However, I would think everyone would say that Martin will produce somewhere close to his salary, of $22 mil for three years production. With the rising cap, there is a good chance that won't even be the MLE, and Martin will produce better than the average player over the next three years -- even if he falls short, it won't be by as much as Garnett will lag this season.

I understand that people here love the idea of future financial flexibility, but not all expirings are not equal. Nobody pays $100 now so they don't have to pay $20 later.

Shrink, I'm glad you keep bringing this back up because its a good point. I think we all can see how useless expirings went from being a trade asset in the hands of teams willing to spend(My Mavs the team that did the most in this regard just continually flipping contracts to gain assets--Juwan in to NVE and Rafe, NVE into Jamison, Walker into JET, Henderson into KVH, Laettner into Dampier, JHo into DeShawn, Butler, and Haywood, Dampier into Tyson.) to now being a negative that teams are paying to clear a year earlier.

But I do think that last statement isn't quite an absolute. I think there are times where the gain in opportunity makes an initial outlay of cash beneficial. Maybe not quite at your 5 to 1 rate, but do I think Cuban would be willing to pay $7M or $8M or even $10M this year to get out of Felton's <$4M for next year? Yeah I think he might if meant the chance to pursue a Marc Gasol or a Goran Dragic this summer.

[shrink]

I agree that there are exceptions. LAL shouldn't trade Nash, because they can probably get better than market next year, possible ultra-valuable superstars, because they are a free agent destination. Maybe BRK is the same. And there are teams that may get more value by having multiple expirings, and are able to market by offering two superstars a deal and help convince them because they can bring in two.

However, these are generally the exceptions. Most teams in free agency are going to get, at best, market value, because they were willing to outbid every others team wih cap space. Strangely, a few years ago, I was the guy defending the value of cap space, and it comes to use to have value. However, the value is relative to eir individual situation.

Everyy time I see someone post, "he's not worth an expiring," I always think, "which expiring?" They certainly don't all have the same value.

[shrink]

Can't imagine Charlotte gives a first to turn Hendo in Brewer.

I think you're probably right, but don't we hope that a late first round pick will turn into a Brewer-level player? A pick in the 20's may be a miss, occasionally a starter, but if you can get a rotation player at that range, that's better than expected (though Brewer is now more expensive $4.7, $4.9, but more reliable).

This is the wrong way to think about pick value.

Why do teams want late first round picks?
1 - it's a fungible asset that can be easily packaged in a later trade.
2 - there is a decent chance you can find a quality role-player that will be locked into a very cheap rookie scale deal
3 - there is some chance, although very small, you could find an all-star caliber player

None of those things are properties of Brewer at this point. Brewer is a decent role-player on a fair contract. If that's what you want you sign a guy in the off-season, you don't trade a first for that kind of asset unless you are desperate. And Cha isn't in a desperate situation at all. They are actually pretty deep on the wings in my view.

I don't disagree with you, but at some point, teams want actual players on the floor, to win games and sell tickets.

The value of a pick vs e value of a player is based on team direction, and each team's optimism about where it can go.

[pacers33granger]

To add to shrink's point, any team trading for KG (other than contenders maybe) is getting very low production and what they get they don't really want or need. It's essentially an amnesty and what team would amnesty a guy like Brewer (Martin/Hendo are similar sized deals so that's kind of a wash contract wise to me). His contract is fine for his production and is small, plus the Wolves don't have the need to create cap space right now. So I don't like it for Minny, though it'd also depend on the protection on the Charlotte pick.

I don't like it for the Nets either. Turning the guy you gave a bunch of picks for into another wing player (only place they have some good depth and better starters than Martin) with a smaller but longer contract seems like a bad idea. It'd leave their big rotation as essentially Lopez, Plumlee, and Teletovic. Still ok, but what happens if Lopez goes down again?

And I don't like it for Charlotte either. Brewer isn't that much of an upgrade from Hendo to add a first. That first could be very valuable to them, either to add to a trade that gives them a very good upgrade or to a 4 year bench role player. Indy would be in a lot better position if they still had Plumlee and this summer's pick on their roster.

[Golabki]

I think you're probably right, but don't we hope that a late first round pick will turn into a Brewer-level player? A pick in the 20's may be a miss, occasionally a starter, but if you can get a rotation player at that range, that's better than expected (though Brewer is now more expensive $4.7, $4.9, but more reliable).

This is the wrong way to think about pick value.

Why do teams want late first round picks?
1 - it's a fungible asset that can be easily packaged in a later trade.
2 - there is a decent chance you can find a quality role-player that will be locked into a very cheap rookie scale deal
3 - there is some chance, although very small, you could find an all-star caliber player

None of those things are properties of Brewer at this point. Brewer is a decent role-player on a fair contract. If that's what you want you sign a guy in the off-season, you don't trade a first for that kind of asset unless you are desperate. And Cha isn't in a desperate situation at all. They are actually pretty deep on the wings in my view.

I don't disagree with you, but at some point, teams want actual players on the floor, to win games and sell tickets.

The value of a pick vs e value of a player is based on team direction, and each team's optimism about where it can go.

This would be a fair point... if we were talking about a major upgrade at a position of need and not a minor upgrade to the 3rd wing slot.

[Golabki]

This is the wrong way to think about pick value.

Why do teams want late first round picks?
1 - it's a fungible asset that can be easily packaged in a later trade.
2 - there is a decent chance you can find a quality role-player that will be locked into a very cheap rookie scale deal
3 - there is some chance, although very small, you could find an all-star caliber player

None of those things are properties of Brewer at this point. Brewer is a decent role-player on a fair contract. If that's what you want you sign a guy in the off-season, you don't trade a first for that kind of asset unless you are desperate. And Cha isn't in a desperate situation at all. They are actually pretty deep on the wings in my view.

I don't disagree with you, but at some point, teams want actual players on the floor, to win games and sell tickets.

The value of a pick vs e value of a player is based on team direction, and each team's optimism about where it can go.

This would be a fair point... if we were talking about a major upgrade at a position of need and not a minor upgrade to the 3rd wing slot.

And by the way... could MKG and Brewer even play at the same time?

[HornetJail]

I want no part of Brewer in Charlotte. Definitely not moving a 1st to downgrade anyway.

[Elden Payton]

No way for Charlotte though Brewer is underrated.