UTA/MIN (draft day trade)

[Golabki]

Ah what the hell. Yes we're sure. The Wolves offense AND defense is night and day with Rubio in. He's one of the best offensive PGs in the NBA much the same way Jason Kidd was. Everyone else scores much more efficiently and there are fewer team turnovers. The points per possession/points per 100 possessions/etc. goes way up with Rubio in. And defense is ridiculously better with Rubio, but that's sort of exaggerated this year with a bunch of rookies and sophomores playing most of the minutes.

Rubio makes one of the worst teams in the NBA better? ... True.
Rubio is better than Mo Williams and about a million times better than Zach LaVine? ... True.
Rubio is an excellent defensive PG? ... True.
Rubio is "one of the best offensive PGs in the NBA"? ... The ramblings of a mad man.

I like Rubio. By all standards other than "minny homer", I'm a Rubio guy. I would not be surprised if Rubio was a consensus top 10 PG this time next year... but come on, let's live in the real world... "one of the best offensive PGs in the NBA"? Really?

With Nikola Pekovik, Kevin Love, Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, and Ricky Rubio....the Wolves starting 5, they were a top 3 offensive starting 5 and would have ranked a top 10 defensive team.

Who do you think made that team above average defensively? Do you think the Wolves starting 5 +/- last year was wrong? Do you know what RAPM is, and how good Rubio is every year in it? Not being a dick, some people really don't know.

The answer is yes, Rubio is much better then average both offensively and defensively. I'm not sure what else to say. Maybe go back and look at blanket stats, like team points per 100 possessions, with Rubio on and off the court. The Wolves offense is so much better with Rubio in every year that it's hard to argue he's not the reason.

1. I already agreed Rubio is excellent defensively.
2. I know enough about RAPM to know that RAPM data absolutely does not support the claim that Rubio is a significantly above average starting PG in the NBA.
3. On/off court team point per position don't mean a ton when you are on a terrible team and you're comparing minutes with Mo "Mediocrity" Williams and Zach "I'm the Worst PG in the NBA" LaVine.

[Narf]

2. I know enough about RAPM to know that RAPM data absolutely does not support the claim that Rubio is a significantly above average starting PG in the NBA.
3. On/off court team point per position don't mean a ton when you are on a terrible team and you're comparing minutes with Mo "Mediocrity" Williams and Zach "I'm the Worst PG in the NBA" LaVine.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13MIN2.HTM#onoff
The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year. Forget the bench, forget +/-, they flat out outscored the other team with Rubio in by a pretty big amount. But this year's Wolves are terrible right?
http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN1.HTM#onoff

Rubio doesn't just "make them better". He makes them better then the other team. With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions.

[Golabki]

2. I know enough about RAPM to know that RAPM data absolutely does not support the claim that Rubio is a significantly above average starting PG in the NBA.
3. On/off court team point per position don't mean a ton when you are on a terrible team and you're comparing minutes with Mo "Mediocrity" Williams and Zach "I'm the Worst PG in the NBA" LaVine.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13MIN2.HTM#onoff
The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year. Forget the bench, forget +/-, they flat out outscored the other team with Rubio in by a pretty big amount. But this year's Wolves are terrible right?
http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN1.HTM#onoff

Rubio doesn't just "make them better". He makes them better then the other team. With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions.

"The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year." How many of those minutes involved Kevin Love?

"With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions." In how many minutes? Do you actually believe that this years wolves team starting line up, with Rubio, is a significantly better than the average starting lineup of an average NBA team?

[MNRunLeft]

This is the classic "He's worth more to us than anyone is willing to pay" situations. The Wolves are not moving Rubio barring a drastic overpay.

[Narf]

2. I know enough about RAPM to know that RAPM data absolutely does not support the claim that Rubio is a significantly above average starting PG in the NBA.
3. On/off court team point per position don't mean a ton when you are on a terrible team and you're comparing minutes with Mo "Mediocrity" Williams and Zach "I'm the Worst PG in the NBA" LaVine.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13MIN2.HTM#onoff
The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year. Forget the bench, forget +/-, they flat out outscored the other team with Rubio in by a pretty big amount. But this year's Wolves are terrible right?
http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN1.HTM#onoff

Rubio doesn't just "make them better". He makes them better then the other team. With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions.

"The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year." How many of those minutes involved Kevin Love?

"With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions." In how many minutes? Do you actually believe that this years wolves team starting line up, with Rubio, is a significantly better than the average starting lineup of an average NBA team?

In every single minute Rubio is in Golabki. How is that hard to understand? How many players are there in the NBA that you can put on this Minnesota team and actually outscore the other team? 10? 20?

[Golabki]

http://www.82games.com/1314/13MIN2.HTM#onoff
The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year. Forget the bench, forget +/-, they flat out outscored the other team with Rubio in by a pretty big amount. But this year's Wolves are terrible right?
http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN1.HTM#onoff

Rubio doesn't just "make them better". He makes them better then the other team. With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions.

"The Wolves outscored THE OTHER TEAM by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Rubio in last year." How many of those minutes involved Kevin Love?

"With Rubio in one of the worst teams in the NBA actually outscores the other team by 4 points per 100 possessions." In how many minutes? Do you actually believe that this years wolves team starting line up, with Rubio, is a significantly better than the average starting lineup of an average NBA team?

In every single minute Rubio is in Golabki. How is that hard to understand? How many players are there in the NBA that you can put on this Minnesota team and actually outscore the other team? 10? 20?

Rubio hasn't played enough minutes for that to be a meaningful number.

The thing that's hard to understand is that you seem to be claiming Rubio is a top 10 player in the NBA, based on a few hundred minutes of unadjusted +/- data this year and his unadjusted +/- data from last year. That's like flipping a coin 3 times, having it come up heads 3 times, and concluding that all coin flips will always come up heads.

[Narf]

Rubio hasn't played enough minutes for that to be a meaningful number.

The thing that's hard to understand is that you seem to be claiming Rubio is a top 10 player in the NBA, based on a few hundred minutes of unadjusted +/- data this year and his unadjusted +/- data from last year. That's like flipping a coin 3 times, having it come up heads 3 times, and concluding that all coin flips will always come up heads.

There's more data then this year or last year. But those 2 years are enough.

RAPM adjusts for Kevin Love being in the lineup or Kevin Love being on the bench. Rubio is in fact a top 25 player in the NBA this year and last year if you measure how much better the team is with or without him. Mo Williams isn't terrible, he's a solid vet backup not a LaVine project rookie learning a new position. So Rubio's vast improvement over Mo Williams is in fact a pretty good marker. Even Rubio's Rookie year his defensive court impact was ridiculous before he was injured. Obviously that's not a point of contention with you, but his defense is part of why I think he's a top 25 player. It's not top 25 offensive, it's top 25 all around.

You keep saying there isn't enough data, and act like I'm solely relying on this year. There's a lot of data saying the same thing. I won't say he's top 10 because I don't think he is, but I do think he's top 25.

Instead of telling me 1 1/2 years isn't enough data, why don't you find any data anywhere that says he isn't really, really good? Even in the year he was coming back from ACL (I'm a proponent of throwing those years out when a player is clearly hampered by a serious injury) Rubio was a pretty positive force on the court.

All I'm seeing from you is "all the numbers that make your point aren't reliable". Well, what other numbers are there? The Wolves are night and day with Rubio on the court, ask any Wolves fan. And the numbers agree with our eyes.

Edit:

And let me debunk your analogy. It's not like flipping a coin a few times. It's like rolling a 20 sided dice 20 times and rolling an 18, 19, or 20 3 out of 4 times. At some point random chance becomes less likely then "he's good". We're past that point this season, let alone if you include last year's numbers.

[aim2please]

I agree with MNRunLeft. He's valued higher by Minnesota than anyone is willing to pay, doubt he gets traded.

I understand Wolves fans. They're going through the same thing Celtics fans went through with Rondo. It's hard not to like unselfish players, especially when they're genuinely nice like Rubio is.

Unfortunately, I am yet to be convinced you can win meaningful games with a back court player who is a non-treat as a shooter being your best or second best player. Rubio ranks 19th in RPM among point guards and that's about right - he's an average starting PG. Keep in mind that DRPM inflates the value of guys who get steals and blocks same way PER inflates the value of high usage rate guy, and Rubio gets a lot of steals.

It's hard to get excited about a guy whose career TS% is .485. Imagine him in a playoff game where his guy is backing off of him and dare him to shoot the ball 20 times a game.

[Golabki]

Rubio hasn't played enough minutes for that to be a meaningful number.

The thing that's hard to understand is that you seem to be claiming Rubio is a top 10 player in the NBA, based on a few hundred minutes of unadjusted +/- data this year and his unadjusted +/- data from last year. That's like flipping a coin 3 times, having it come up heads 3 times, and concluding that all coin flips will always come up heads.

There's more data then this year or last year. But those 2 years are enough.

RAPM adjusts for Kevin Love being in the lineup or Kevin Love being on the bench. Rubio is in fact a top 25 player in the NBA this year and last year if you measure how much better the team is with or without him. Mo Williams isn't terrible, he's a solid vet backup not a LaVine project rookie learning a new position. So Rubio's vast improvement over Mo Williams is in fact a pretty good marker. Even Rubio's Rookie year his defensive court impact was ridiculous before he was injured. Obviously that's not a point of contention with you, but his defense is part of why I think he's a top 25 player. It's not top 25 offensive, it's top 25 all around.

You keep saying there isn't enough data, and act like I'm solely relying on this year. There's a lot of data saying the same thing. I won't say he's top 10 because I don't think he is, but I do think he's top 25.

Instead of telling me 1 1/2 years isn't enough data, why don't you find any data anywhere that says he isn't really, really good? Even in the year he was coming back from ACL (I'm a proponent of throwing those years out when a player is clearly hampered by a serious injury) Rubio was a pretty positive force on the court.

All I'm seeing from you is "all the numbers that make your point aren't reliable". Well, what other numbers are there? The Wolves are night and day with Rubio on the court, ask any Wolves fan. And the numbers agree with our eyes.

Edit:

And let me debunk your analogy. It's not like flipping a coin a few times. It's like rolling a 20 sided dice 20 times and rolling an 18, 19, or 20 3 out of 4 times. At some point random chance becomes less likely then "he's good". We're past that point this season, let alone if you include last year's numbers.

RPM (ESPN's version of RAPM) has him at a +1 including this year... which is fine for a starting PG, but not good.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_ ... position/1

His RAPM last year was +2... which again, is fine for a starting PG, but not great and not a top 25 player.
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html

Where are you getting your numbers?

[MoneyTalks41890]

I don't buy Rubio being a top 25 player. He might be a top 10 PG.

[Domejandro]

Ricky Rubio is actually shooting shots now. He is absolutely missing them, but he has taken the first step in improving by trusting his shot.

He is not an elite Point-Guard yet, but I have an excellent feeling for next season.