Delaying gratification: Best offer of future assets for mid 1st picks?

Post #1 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:52 pm

Going the opposite direction of the consolidation thread.

Philly should have a pick between 1 and 5 (their own). A very outside chance of a pick at 6 from the Lakers. I wouldn;t see either moving.

And then we get to the interesting area...
Miami 1st (top 10 protected)
OKC 1st (top 18 protected)

OKC pick will pretty much only happen if it is at 19, while the Miami pick will be somewhere between 11 and 16.

It looks like there is a big drop off after 12 in most mock drafts, and with Philly in general in asset accumulation and delayed gratification, whats the best offer for a pick at 13? At 19?

Looking for something like last years McDermott trade (11 for 16 and 19 and a small salary dump), but probably more like 14 for 26 and a future 1st from Toronto?

Any team out there that is interested in a 2 future 1sts for 1 now?

Ideal trade is something like last draft, 10 for 12, future 2nd and future protected 1st, but counting on that seems extreme. However, is there a player that your team simply must get and you would offer a boatload for? I promise not to tell anyone.

Please don't offer some vets. This is all about getting more via the time value.

LApwnd · Post #2 » by **LApwnd** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 4:57 pm

Hou 1st, Lakers future 2nd, Clipps 15' 2nd for 13th.

Post #3 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:41 pm

LApwnd wrote:Hou 1st, Lakers future 2nd, Clipps 15' 2nd for 13th.

The value on that is really awful.

Post #4 » by **BullyKing** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:45 pm

LApwnd wrote:Hou 1st, Lakers future 2nd, Clipps 15' 2nd for 13th.

That might not even get you the OKC pick.

LApwnd · Post #5 » by **LApwnd** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:54 pm

BullyKing wrote:
LApwnd wrote:Hou 1st, Lakers future 2nd, Clipps 15' 2nd for 13th.

That might not even get you the OKC pick.

OKC pick if they made the playoffs would be only a few spots above Hou, that's a bit of a hyberbole if you think it takes 2 2nds to move up a few spots in the 20's, that would just be almost a lateral move when you get into those range it doesn't really matter anymore, you just pick whoevers available.

Post #6 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:57 pm

LApwnd wrote:
BullyKing wrote:
LApwnd wrote:Hou 1st, Lakers future 2nd, Clipps 15' 2nd for 13th.

That might not even get you the OKC pick.

OKC pick if they made the playoffs would be only a few spots above Hou, that's a bit of a hyberbole if you think it takes 2 2nds to move up a few spots in the 20's, that would just be almost a lateral move when you get into those range it doesn't really matter anymore, you just pick whoevers available.

OKC pick if its there would be 19. Right now ESPN projects the Hou pick to be 25. The Clippers 2nd is going to be 55. So, unless that Lakers 2nd is really good, it is definitely bad value for the OKC pick too.

LApwnd · Post #7 » by **LApwnd** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:59 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
LApwnd wrote:
BullyKing wrote:
That might not even get you the OKC pick.

OKC pick if they made the playoffs would be only a few spots above Hou, that's a bit of a hyberbole if you think it takes 2 2nds to move up a few spots in the 20's, that would just be almost a lateral move when you get into those range it doesn't really matter anymore, you just pick whoevers available.

OKC pick if its there would be 19. Right now ESPN projects the Hou pick to be 25. The Clippers 2nd is going to be 55. So, unless that Lakers 2nd is really good, it is definitely bad value for the OKC pick too.

like I said when it gets to that range, there's no point in trading at all. There's not much of a talent gap between 19th vs. 25th, at this point teams are just picking to fill in the bench or need. So I'll give that my offer isn't enough for 13th but I wouldn't need to move to 19th, its pointless.

Birdie · Post #8 » by **Birdie** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:04 pm

Depending on who you guys draft, as all the mocks seem to be hovering around Mudiay, Russell with your Top 5.

I think the Lakers, as evidenced by their lineup choices, they're hellbent on keeping that pick. The MIA pick is a tossup. Even with CB done, if Dragic gels, they could barely make it in but if D Wade misses any time, I think you guys will get the pick.

The OKC pick looks to be coming your way unless they totally combust. Russ looks like he's on a mission.

Would you consider this deal:

PHI receives JJ Reddick, 2016 pic swap, 2019 1st rd unprotected? for the MIA/OKC picks?

Post #9 » by **CellarDoor** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:19 pm

If a team wanted that pick but didn't want to trade their future firsts I wouldn't mind seeing Chicago get involved for a contributing piece with the Sac pick and/or a future CHI pick. I can't see us making a move for someone there ourselves though, and Philly would be gambling on the Sac pick to a minor extent.

Bentley1225 · Post #10 » by **Bentley1225** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:27 pm

If Im Philly I trade the OKC pick (assuming it lands between 19-21) for bad 1 year contract and a future top 7 protected pick. With 5 second round picks, they dont really have a immediate need for that 2015 OKC pick.

theatlfan · Post #11 » by **theatlfan** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:34 pm

The hard part with a trade like this is that, for a team to trade up or in, then that means that the team loves a player and it's hard to know which teams that would be. For instance, I could easily see my Hawks offering up our protected 1st in '16 and MIN's 1st (protections starting in '18 most likely) if the right guy was on the board for one of those picks, but I genuinely don't know who that "right guy" would be yet - there's just too many factors that come into play to even accurately assess that.

For instance, let's assume we really like Montrezl Harell and are set to pop him @ 12. But the draft board tilts in our favor (for once) and, say, Stanley Johnson is available @ 12 so we have to pull the trigger on him. If Harrell continues to fall and is there for that OKC pick, then maybe the value is right for PHI to pull the trigger on the offer above. But obviously a lot could go wrong. What if Johnson hadn't fallen and we took Harrell at 12? What if someone took Harrell between 13 and 18? What if the faller wasn't a SF but a PF... or even if we see Johnson as a combo F who'd eat Harrell's minutes anyway? Just seems like everything has to fall just right for this scenario to happen. The beauty of the draft is that there are 30 teams and the probability of things falling just right for any one of them is actually really high, but choosing which one is just a crap shoot.

Post #12 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:35 pm

LApwnd wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
LApwnd wrote:OKC pick if they made the playoffs would be only a few spots above Hou, that's a bit of a hyberbole if you think it takes 2 2nds to move up a few spots in the 20's, that would just be almost a lateral move when you get into those range it doesn't really matter anymore, you just pick whoevers available.

OKC pick if its there would be 19. Right now ESPN projects the Hou pick to be 25. The Clippers 2nd is going to be 55. So, unless that Lakers 2nd is really good, it is definitely bad value for the OKC pick too.

like I said when it gets to that range, there's no point in trading at all. There's not much of a talent gap between 19th vs. 25th, at this point teams are just picking to fill in the bench or need. So I'll give that my offer isn't enough for 13th but I wouldn't need to move to 19th, its pointless.

Okay, this is not what I wanted to do in this thread but...

Houston pick (25-27) for
Orlando 2nd (34) and NOP 2nd (45) and Hou 2nd (55-57)?

Its a similar drop down, only from further back. And it gets LAL out of the guaranteed contract, freeing up more cap room. For Philly, they get the guaranteed rookie contract and consolidate as eventually you run out of roster spots, and god forbid you cut Jakarr.

Post #13 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:36 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
LApwnd wrote:
BullyKing wrote:
That might not even get you the OKC pick.

OKC pick if they made the playoffs would be only a few spots above Hou, that's a bit of a hyberbole if you think it takes 2 2nds to move up a few spots in the 20's, that would just be almost a lateral move when you get into those range it doesn't really matter anymore, you just pick whoevers available.

OKC pick if its there would be 19. Right now ESPN projects the Hou pick to be 25. The Clippers 2nd is going to be 55. So, unless that Lakers 2nd is really good, it is definitely bad value for the OKC pick too.

Yup. Those 2nds are so low in value they might not combine to get you up a pick or two in the 1st round. There'd have to be value in the form of eating an undesirable one year deal from the team trading down to make it up.

Post #14 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:41 pm

theatlfan wrote:The hard part with a trade like this is that, for a team to trade up or in, then that means that the team loves a player and it's hard to know which teams that would be. For instance, I could easily see my Hawks offering up our protected 1st in '16 and MIN's 1st (protections starting in '18 most likely) if the right guy was on the board for one of those picks, but I genuinely don't know who that "right guy" would be yet - there's just too many factors that come into play to even accurately assess that.

For instance, let's assume we really like Montrezl Harell and are set to pop him @ 12. But the draft board tilts in our favor (for once) and, say, Stanley Johnson is available @ 12 so we have to pull the trigger on him. If Harrell continues to fall and is there for that OKC pick, then maybe the value is right for PHI to pull the trigger on the offer above. But obviously a lot could go wrong. What if Johnson hadn't fallen and we took Harrell at 12? What if someone took Harrell between 13 and 18? What if the faller wasn't a SF but a PF... or even if we see Johnson as a combo F who'd eat Harrell's minutes anyway? Just seems like everything has to fall just right for this scenario to happen. The beauty of the draft is that there are 30 teams and the probability of things falling just right for any one of them is actually really high, but choosing which one is just a crap shoot.

This is exactly the deal I'm looking for. Harrel at 19 for Lotto protected Atlanta pick and the Minnesota future 1st. Pick is lotto protected for 5 years then becomes 2 2nds?).

It is not a slam dunk and it would get mocked mercilessly by the critics (Draft pick found too old for Hinkie), but it adds slight value on a value chart and fits the other teams window better. Obviously there are lots of speculative conditions on it, but it is not relying on anything too crazy. It could also work with the Miami pick if that is at 15 or 16. I'm sold.

LApwnd · Post #15 » by **LApwnd** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:48 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Okay, this is not what I wanted to do in this thread but...

Houston pick (25-27) for
Orlando 2nd (34) and NOP 2nd (45) and Hou 2nd (55-57)?

Its a similar drop down, only from further back. And it gets LAL out of the guaranteed contract, freeing up more cap room. For Philly, they get the guaranteed rookie contract and consolidate as eventually you run out of roster spots, and god forbid you cut Jakarr.

that's doable I guess if mgmt. doesn't see any one there at Hou pick that was on their board.

Post #16 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:51 pm

Sweet, so I just traded up and down in the same thread. /Hinkie.

theatlfan · Post #17 » by **theatlfan** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:57 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:This is exactly the deal I'm looking for. Harrel at 19 for Lotto protected Atlanta pick and the Minnesota future 1st. Pick is lotto protected for 5 years then becomes 2 2nds?).

It is not a slam dunk and it would get mocked mercilessly by the critics (Draft pick found too old for Hinkie), but it adds slight value on a value chart and fits the other teams window better. Obviously there are lots of speculative conditions on it, but it is not relying on anything too crazy. It could also work with the Miami pick if that is at 15 or 16. I'm sold.

?? - I thought you were the one who pointed out to me how the pick was protected... but yes, if the MIN pick drops out of the lotto somewhere between '18 and '20, then it's ATL's - otherwise, it's 2 2nds.

For us, I noted Harrell (who wasn't pulled out of a hat - he is actually a guy that I could us us deciding we absolutely love who'd fall into the 13+ area... but I could also see us deciding that he's not a guy we love so much that we'd give 2 1st for though). Some of the other I could also see us falling in love with include Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trey Lyles, and Cliff Alexander. I'm sure others will pop out as we go along.

No idea who the players would be for the other 29 teams though. (29 since I'd assume that if PHI fell in love with someone, then they wouldn't be trading him for marginally more value.)

Post #18 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:58 pm

theatlfan wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:This is exactly the deal I'm looking for. Harrel at 19 for Lotto protected Atlanta pick and the Minnesota future 1st. Pick is lotto protected for 5 years then becomes 2 2nds?).

It is not a slam dunk and it would get mocked mercilessly by the critics (Draft pick found too old for Hinkie), but it adds slight value on a value chart and fits the other teams window better. Obviously there are lots of speculative conditions on it, but it is not relying on anything too crazy. It could also work with the Miami pick if that is at 15 or 16. I'm sold.

?? - I thought you were the one who pointed out to me how the pick was protected... but yes, if the MIN pick drops out of the lotto somewhere between '18 and '20, then it's ATL's - otherwise, it's 2 2nds.

For us, I noted Harrell (who wasn't pulled out of a hat - he is actually a guy that I could us us deciding we absolutely love who'd fall into the 13+ area... but I could also see us deciding that he's not a guy we love so much that we'd give 2 1st for though). Some of the other I could also see us falling in love with include Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trey Lyles, and Cliff Alexander. I'm sure others will pop out as we go along.

No idea who the players would be for the other 29 teams though. (29 since I'd assume that if PHI fell in love with someone, then they wouldn't be trading him for marginally more value.)

I meant the Atlanta pick. So, guaranteeing you wouldn't pay a pick in the lotto.

HornetJail · Post #19 » by **HornetJail** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:00 pm

If we end up missing the playoffs with a 10th-ish pick, I could see us picking up #15 and #19. I don't particularly want two more rookies on this already very young team, but it's good value. If we could pick up two shooters like Grant and LaVert (not too familiar with all the prospects this year, but they could fit here from what I've read) , I think we could make it work.

theatlfan · Post #20 » by **theatlfan** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:41 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
theatlfan wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:This is exactly the deal I'm looking for. Harrel at 19 for Lotto protected Atlanta pick and the Minnesota future 1st. Pick is lotto protected for 5 years then becomes 2 2nds?).

It is not a slam dunk and it would get mocked mercilessly by the critics (Draft pick found too old for Hinkie), but it adds slight value on a value chart and fits the other teams window better. Obviously there are lots of speculative conditions on it, but it is not relying on anything too crazy. It could also work with the Miami pick if that is at 15 or 16. I'm sold.

?? - I thought you were the one who pointed out to me how the pick was protected... but yes, if the MIN pick drops out of the lotto somewhere between '18 and '20, then it's ATL's - otherwise, it's 2 2nds.

For us, I noted Harrell (who wasn't pulled out of a hat - he is actually a guy that I could us us deciding we absolutely love who'd fall into the 13+ area... but I could also see us deciding that he's not a guy we love so much that we'd give 2 1st for though). Some of the other I could also see us falling in love with include Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trey Lyles, and Cliff Alexander. I'm sure others will pop out as we go along.

No idea who the players would be for the other 29 teams though. (29 since I'd assume that if PHI fell in love with someone, then they wouldn't be trading him for marginally more value.)

I meant the Atlanta pick. So, guaranteeing you wouldn't pay a pick in the lotto.

Ah... sorry. Well, if we could get that, then yes, but I'm sure we'll have our head in the clouds after this season and wouldn't object too strenuously if PHI insisted that the protections devolve into unprotected eventually. Not saying I'd like it, but I could see it assuming we liked the prospect well enough.