Disagree. Assuming everyone opts in and the tiers don't change as we lead up to the draft, I think it's pretty obvious the next tier comes in around 12. After the top 4, you have the 4 wings, WCS, Prozingis, Turner, and Looney who all fall somewhere in the top 15 in everyone's big board and in many different orders. They have been all season as well so we're not looking at any johnny-come-lately's here either. Now that it's March Madness, we're already starting to see another wave of guys who have been banging on the door of the 3rd tier all season starting to get their love too - guys like Grant, Booker, Portis, Lyles, and Kaminsky. If the LAL pick falls to 5, then the only reason someone in the top 10 would have to trade up is if they really love a guy - it won't be because of a discrepancy in talent because the talent remains relatively flat possibly even all the way outside the lottery picks.
Agree to disagree then. After the top 8 there is a pretty big drop off and about the next 7 are really close.
