Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes

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More trade value

Barnes by a lot (fan of one of the teams)
5
6%
Barnes by a little (fan of one of the teams)
10
13%
Equal (fan of one of the teams)
2
3%
Covington by a little (fan of one of the teams)
3
4%
Covington by a lot (fan of one of the teams)
4
5%
Barnes by a lot (fan of neither of the teams)
29
38%
Barnes by a little (fan of neither of the teams)
12
16%
Equal (fan of neither of the teams)
1
1%
Covington by a little (fan of neither of the teams)
6
8%
Covington by a lot (fan of neither of the teams)
5
6%
 
Total votes: 77

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Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#1 » by HartfordWhalers » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:49 pm

As always, trade value is defined as the most a team could reasonable get if trading a player.

Stats:
http://bkref.com/tiny/HFvoE

Salary situation:
Barnes: $3,873,398 $5,194,227 (q/o) with a $9,683,495 cap hold and rumored to have rejected a 16m a year extension
Covington: $1,000,000 (ung) $1,015,696 (ung) $1,087,745 (team Option)

Other:

Let me know what stats/details should also be included.


{For the poll I combined fan of gs and fan of Philly. If that turns out to hide important info, I guess I can change it by I thought getting the by a little, by a lot in made more sense.}
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#2 » by bondom34 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:57 pm

Well, its making me think, which means I'm going one way or the other "close". Depends on how much stock you put into being on a winning team I'd say.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#3 » by Smitty731 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:32 pm

Initial is to just say Barnes. But then when I get thinking about it, it is a lot closer. Barnes has more talent all-around for me. I can't get him playing so good at PF in the playoffs a couple of years ago.

It is the salary that closes it for me ultimately. Barnes needs paid soon and Covington doesn't. But I still go Barnes slightly.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#4 » by HartfordWhalers » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:35 pm

To me, they both are role players that score well from deep.


But the big differences are contract --- Covington by a mile -- and the amount of teammate help/own usage they get in being a scorer.


http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/02/deep-dives-open-shooters/

Harrison Barnes shot 210 3 pointers with 77.6% open and 26.2% wide open, and a full 93.8% of catch and shoot.
In contrast, Covington had a much higher usage, and took 435 3's with only 24.8% open and 5.5% wide open, and 86.7% off of catch and shoot.

So, here is their comparative shooting in that open category that is most of Barnes shots
Image

And here is the comparative when not 'open'
Image

If I'm a team, I trust Covington to give you what he has been with the worst scoring support in the league, versus what Barnes is doing with more support than just about anyone in the league.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#5 » by Masterfully » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:36 pm

Over the years I've seen a few players like Covington that benefit from being on a bad team. They fill a void and look better than they really are.

On the other hand, I've also seen players that were surrounded by great talent and got a big lift from having opponents focused on star teammates.

Still, this is Barnes easily for me.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#6 » by HartfordWhalers » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:42 pm

Masterfully wrote:Over the years I've seen a few players like Covington that benefit from being on a bad team. They fill a void and look better than they really are.

On the other hand, I've also seen players that were surrounded by great talent and got a big lift from having opponents focused on star teammates.

Still, this is Barnes easily for me.


I don't understand that argument against Covington each time someone tries to use it.

He led the team in scoring during his time on the team (MCW was traded). He scored efficiently taking 3's. Is the terrible low scoring bad floor spacing Sixers offense getting more open 3 point looks? Besides the data saying no, common sense would sure as heck say no as well.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#7 » by azwfan » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:52 pm

I went with Barnes by a little. Admittedly i haven't seen a ton of Convington but i liked what i did see. To me, there are two primary differences that really don't need in depth analysis.

1) Winning. Barnes has won. Convington hasn't. Thats no fault of Covnington, but it is a fact. Barnes has had opportunities in the playoffs and has come up huge in big situations. No idea what Covington will look like when the intensity is ratcheted up.

2) Salary. Barnes current salary isn't so bad its the one he's going to get next year. Covington's salary is miniscule and locked up for several more years.

In the end, the goal is to win so i'll take the proven winner. I would hedge that previous statement by saying that a team that is not looking to compete in the near future should value Covington more as he provides much more financial flexibility and the "winning" aspect is somewhat negated.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#8 » by bondom34 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:53 pm

And I messed up my vote. Wanted to say Barnes by a little, said Covington by a little. Man I need the weekend. And in reality I would bet its Barnes by a lot, because people see "upside" in a lotto pick despite true production.

Edit: NM, no I didn't and yes I need sleep.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#9 » by Masterfully » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:54 pm

Because SOMEONE has to produce on that team. Just because it was Covington doesn't necessarily mean that he could replicate it on a good team. I've seen several cases where it didn't translate.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#10 » by HartfordWhalers » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:04 pm

Masterfully wrote:Because SOMEONE has to produce on that team. Just because it was Covington doesn't necessarily mean that he could replicate it on a good team. I've seen several cases where it didn't translate.


But similarly, because someone has to produce, getting that production is harder.

When you see a guy that would never get to be the lead creator on a good team running 20 pick and rolls a game, its easy to look at that and say, in a different situation that skillset wouldn't be used and is getting over used in that context.

I have a very hard time saying hitting 3 pointers wouldn't be used by a winning team, or that they wouldn't be even more open. It is a winning complimentary skill set that fits into any team context.

But regardless of the details, I'm going to be disagreeing with you just based upon the track record of people using all caps mid sentence to stress a point that inevitably is wrong.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#11 » by pacers33granger » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:14 pm

I think the salary means more than some people want to think here. Covington will be making slightly more than 1% of the cap in 16-17 and less than 1% in 17-18. Barnes will likely be making around 20% of the cap those years. That is a huge difference. Covington's salary gives teams much more flexibility. 1% of the cap is less than what you'd expect to pay a 10th man and Covington can likely be a starter on a winning team.

Unfortunately we don't know exactly exactly how Covington would perform on a team like GS or how Barnes would perform as a 1st or 2nd option. So it really boils down to how much you believe in each players' ability to do that.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#12 » by bondom34 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:14 pm

Masterfully wrote:Because SOMEONE has to produce on that team. Just because it was Covington doesn't necessarily mean that he could replicate it on a good team. I've seen several cases where it didn't translate.

I think a big difference is yea, someone had to, but no, it didn't have to be efficient or a player with solid defense.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#13 » by QRich3 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 7:09 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Masterfully wrote:Over the years I've seen a few players like Covington that benefit from being on a bad team. They fill a void and look better than they really are.

On the other hand, I've also seen players that were surrounded by great talent and got a big lift from having opponents focused on star teammates.

Still, this is Barnes easily for me.


I don't understand that argument against Covington each time someone tries to use it.

He led the team in scoring during his time on the team (MCW was traded). He scored efficiently taking 3's. Is the terrible low scoring bad floor spacing Sixers offense getting more open 3 point looks? Besides the data saying no, common sense would sure as heck say no as well.

But there's a lot of the little things you need to do when you're playing for a contender that you can do in a more 'relaxed' way (for lack of a better word) if you are playing regular season games where the biggest goal is to develop as a player. If Covington goes out there and misses the first 3 shots, he knows he can get in rhythm later cause he'll get 7 or 8 more. If Barnes does, he might get to the bench and enjoy his bad shooting stats for the night, or he might not get the ball as much. If Covington misses a rotation or two he might get scolded by the coach at most, if Barnes does, he probably goes to the bench and plays little more in the game, etc. Basically there's less room to eff up, and your stats might end up looking a little worse because of it.

I do like Covington, but as of right now, Barnes is a superior player for me.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#14 » by CBA » Fri Sep 25, 2015 7:32 pm

I don't think Barnes is appreciably better than Covington, but am pretty sure he's going to be making 15x as much starting next year. For me, it's Covington by a good bit. Though I'm not as high on Barnes' potential as the rest of this forum seems to be.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#15 » by Onus » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:54 pm

QRich3 wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Masterfully wrote:Over the years I've seen a few players like Covington that benefit from being on a bad team. They fill a void and look better than they really are.

On the other hand, I've also seen players that were surrounded by great talent and got a big lift from having opponents focused on star teammates.

Still, this is Barnes easily for me.


I don't understand that argument against Covington each time someone tries to use it.

He led the team in scoring during his time on the team (MCW was traded). He scored efficiently taking 3's. Is the terrible low scoring bad floor spacing Sixers offense getting more open 3 point looks? Besides the data saying no, common sense would sure as heck say no as well.

But there's a lot of the little things you need to do when you're playing for a contender that you can do in a more 'relaxed' way (for lack of a better word) if you are playing regular season games where the biggest goal is to develop as a player. If Covington goes out there and misses the first 3 shots, he knows he can get in rhythm later cause he'll get 7 or 8 more. If Barnes does, he might get to the bench and enjoy his bad shooting stats for the night, or he might not get the ball as much. If Covington misses a rotation or two he might get scolded by the coach at most, if Barnes does, he probably goes to the bench and plays little more in the game, etc. Basically there's less room to eff up, and your stats might end up looking a little worse because of it.

I do like Covington, but as of right now, Barnes is a superior player for me.


this. It's not like Covington is a lights out shooter or scorer, he's just able to get up more of them to get himself into a rhythm.

I do like Covington though, but it's Barnes for me and I'm probably one of Barnes' harshest critics on the Warriors board.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#16 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:20 pm

It's Barnes on a sliding scale depending on his salary, to me at around 16 per the scale tips.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#17 » by the_process » Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:53 am

Barnes is a better player by a little, but Covington has the better contract by a lot. Hence Covington has a higher trade value. But the Warriors probably don't care about trade value when they are trying to repeat. On October 1st this would work:

GSW gets Birdman and Covington
MIA gets Canaan
PHI gets Kaman, Chalmers, and Barnes
POR gets JThompson and MIA 2nd
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#18 » by Trader_Joe » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:32 am

I would say Barnes by a little.

Teams love potential and are willing to pay for it. Covington is a super cheap role player, but I'm sure some GMs see something in HB that makes them willing to pay. HB will probably get $16+m because some GMs are willing, able and/or desperate. If Covington was a FA he wouldn't get that...should he is another question.

As for the salary difference you are talking about RC and what you hope are average or better signings/players for that salary. Ultimately you get average signings. So RC and neutral salary filler or Barnes is perhaps the most fair comparison.

This season that could be Covington and

D.Carroll
Koufos and Belinelli
R.Jackson
Kanter
Matthews
Afflalo and O'Quinn
A.Johnson and Jerebko
Chandler and Teletovic


Solid but likely average singings.


Unless there is a clear FA target, I don't value the salary difference as highly as others.

Wroten, Covington and a late 1st/early 2nd is probably close though.
Again, not much of a gap but some.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#19 » by MotownMadness » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:17 am

I like Barnes better but I don't think the gap is a very big one between the two.
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Re: Poll: More trade value: Covington or Barnes 

Post#20 » by The59Sound » Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:14 am

MotownMadness wrote:I like Barnes better but I don't think the gap is a very big one between the two.


I agree with this. Harrison Barnes is a player I've always been high on, but as a very good role player, not a big-money guy with All Star potential. I think he's pretty much grown into that. Covington's on his way, too.
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