Team of the Day: Miami Heat Edition

[Texas Chuck]

Talk about a team with a huge off-season in front of them. Holy cow. This is easily the toughest off-season for any team imo.

Front Office: Obviously Pat Riley stays as long as he wants.

Coaching: Eric Spoelstra obviously should stay as well.


Chris Bosh I was really pleased to see the Heat organization put Chris' health first and frankly I expected nothing less from that organization. Obviously losing him is a huge loss on the court and he takes up a lot of dead payroll if he can't play. But everyone needs to continue to make the best life choice for Bosh. Ideally he could get cleared to play, but the Heat have to make plans for life without Bosh.

Trades:

Those of you who are familiar with my posting know that I have been a big proponent of trading Dragic. Not because he's not a good player--tho he's not an ideal fit with Wade--and not that he's terribly overpaid. But rather I think the Heat can better allocate their limited resources without him. I know Heat fans tend to passionately disagree and so I apologize to them, but I believe strongly in this so here we go.

Goran Dragic for George Hill

I know already some people are going to argue this isn't enough value for one side or the other. But I'm keeping it simple. The Pacers want to increase the pace and that is Dragic' game. He costs more than Hill but fits the new direction better and for a team that doesn't often play the free agency game having Dragic locked up is a positive imo. For the Heat I think Hill fits as well or better and he's cheaper which really helps.

Josh McRoberts to team X for cap space. LoserX offered up the Jazz and I'm cool with copying that. I think you could argue keeping him with Bosh up in the air, but I want more cap space for Riley.

Draft: No picks and as gom pointed out--no cash left to buy one

Free Agency: QO to Tyler Johnson and hope he is willing to wait to sign an offer sheet. I trust Riley can get that done. Waive the cap holds to Wade and Deng to get max space. Sit down with Wade and see how flexible he is willing to be. Not asking him to be Tim Duncan here, but seeing how much he will work with us to improve the team. Team now has about $51M in cap space after accounting for empty roster holds.

First question to be answered is Whiteside. There have been mixed messages out of Miami all year in regards to this guy and I think that if Riley really thought Durant was leaving that Whiteside might not be a priority, but these playoffs have likely killed off those hopes so Whiteside gets a max offer(I have read some Heat fans thinking he might take slightly less because of no state income tax, but as a guy from a state that also doesn't have one we hear that sell job too and I've never seen it happen--so sorry no discounts here). Next priority is a guy who can play the 4 and ideally a guy who could slide back and play some 3 if Bosh is able to return. Why not just bring back Luol Deng. With $30M or so to spend I think I can satisify both he and Wade and so we divide it between them. And the room exception might as well go to Joe Johnson who fit in well. So now we have to go shopping with min contracts and trust that Riley can find players. Let's unwrap old Sam Dalembert out of mothballs. Not sure how much he can be depended on, but he should still be able to give some rebounding/rim protection in limited minutes. Still need more big men so Amare sticks around. Crafty vet Luis Scola should still have enough left as well. And Haslem is brought back for one more year. Need another wing and why not another old guy, Richard Jefferson. Finally we need one more guard and ideally this guy is a combo guard. Toney Douglas is the guy.


Hassan Whiteside/Amare/Sam Dalembert
(Chris Bosh)/Luol Deng/Luis Scola/Udonis Haslem
JusticeWinslow/Joe Johnson/Richard Jefferson
Dwayne Wade/Richardson
George Hill/Tyler Johnson/Douglas

Now this team is going to be dependent on continued growth from their young players in order to improve. No major talent upgrades were possible. But if Bosh is healthy and Richardson, Johnson, Winslow all make expected improvements this should still be a top 4 team in the East and they are set up to strike for a max free agent in 2017 to add to this group.

[Slava]

I think you have to mention solid numbers for Wade, Deng and Whiteside as part of any plan because there's a definite cap crunch here and not having bird rights for Whiteside makes it very tricky. Deng can get more than the lesser piece of the $30 mil pot you have to divide between him and Wade from another team considering the dearth of quality SFs and the abundance of cap space so I don't think him returning is even odds on. Joe Johnson will get more in free agency as well.

Also if I'm a team approached with McRoberts for cap space, I'd either ask for more assets or wait it out until free agency is over and not make it easy for Miami to keep Wade and Whiteside unless I get a goodie bag to go along with it.

[gom]

Miami cannot buy into the draft. The 3.4M has been used already.

[Boneman2]

I actually think Hill would be the perfect backcourt mate to Wade because he doesn't demand the ball, consistently hits the 3, which spaces the floor, and he is a superb defender (See Lowry).

Nice write up Texas Chuck.

[Texas Chuck]

I think you have to mention solid numbers for Wade, Deng and Whiteside as part of any plan because there's a definite cap crunch here and not having bird rights for Whiteside makes it very tricky. Deng can get more than the lesser piece of the $30 mil pot you have to divide between him and Wade from another team considering the dearth of quality SFs and the abundance of cap space so I don't think him returning is even odds on. Joe Johnson will get more in free agency as well.

.

Thought I was clear on Whiteside getting the full max. I'd say Deng gets 3/$45M or so and Wade signs a 1+1 starting at $15M as well. I don't think Deng does much better than that to be honest and he played out a relatively cheap option year this year so I think he might take slightly less than market value to stay.

Johnson might get more I suppose, but he's made so much money I don't know that money will be his top priority. Others may disagree but I think him taking the exception in Miami isn't that unreasonable?

[Texas Chuck]

Miami cannot buy into the draft. The 3.4M has been used already.

Thanks for that info! I'll edit that out of the OP. And I probably should have thought about that knowing all the magic tax dodging that Riley did at the deadline.

[Slava]

I think you have to mention solid numbers for Wade, Deng and Whiteside as part of any plan because there's a definite cap crunch here and not having bird rights for Whiteside makes it very tricky. Deng can get more than the lesser piece of the $30 mil pot you have to divide between him and Wade from another team considering the dearth of quality SFs and the abundance of cap space so I don't think him returning is even odds on. Joe Johnson will get more in free agency as well.

.

Thought I was clear on Whiteside getting the full max. I'd say Deng gets 3/$45M or so and Wade signs a 1+1 starting at $15M as well. I don't think Deng does much better than that to be honest and he played out a relatively cheap option year this year so I think he might take slightly less than market value to stay.

Johnson might get more I suppose, but he's made so much money I don't know that money will be his top priority. Others may disagree but I think him taking the exception in Miami isn't that unreasonable?

$15M is accurate for Deng and max for Whiteside sounds good but I doubt Wade is signing for anything less than at least what he made after rather lengthy negotiations last season, when he ended with $20M as a compromise.

[Texas Chuck]

That's a fair take. I guess the difference for me is that last year the Heat operated over the cap so there was no benefit to Wade to take less money. This year with them having to operate under the cap to keep Whiteside he benefits by taking a bit less so the team can retain Deng(or replace him with a competent option).

Now Wade might not be willing to do that--but again I thought it enough within a reasonable realm of possibility to go with it. Obviously if others, particularly Heat fans share your opinion, then I would need to solve another spot much cheaper.

[gom]

In my status quo proposal, I suggested the following:

1. Resign Wade, Whiteside, Deng (see below), offering a 4th year as incentive to Deng.
2. Offer room exception to Joe Johnson.

Whiteside (max is $21,564,143)

$20,000,000 (2016-17)
$21,500,000 (2017-18)
$23,000,000 (2018-19)
$24,500,000 (2019-20, Early Termination Option)

$89,000,000

Wade (born 1/17/82)

$12,668,835 (2016-17)
$13,618,998 (2017-18, age 36 at the end of the contract)
$14,569,160 (2018-19, age 37 at the end of the contract, but 36 at Sept 30)

$40,856,993 (3 year contracts are not subject to the over 36 rule)

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q58

Deng (offers an extra year - Luol Deng is one of those guys who looks older than he is and - in truth - he's been in the league a long time. He was born 4/16/85, though, which means he's 31.)

$10,184,099
$10,642,383
$11,100,668
$11,558,952 (age 35 at the end of contract - it's hard to believe he would receive this much the last year on another team)

$43,486,103

One question that comes up is why would Whiteside play for a starting salary of $20,000,000 (which is 4/89) rather than $21,564,143 to which he is entitled. That's where "jock tax" comes into play. Jock tax is essentially the state tax paid when you earn money by performing in a state. For example, California has a 13.3% state tax rather than Florida's 0% state tax. If Hassan spent 100% of his 170 NBA working days in California (Lakers for example), his $21,564,143 would become $18,696,112, which is significantly less than the $20,000,000 the Heat could pay. On the other hand, Jock Tax is not that simple. Some states charge athletes from other states when they perform in their state, so $20,000,000 is *never* $20,000,000. For at least 8 games a year (or 8/170 of their salary), Heat players must pay California taxes.

California: 13.3% (Clippers, Warriors, Kings, Lakers)
Oregon: 9.9% (Portland Trailblazers)
Minnesota: 9.85% (Timberwolves)
DC: 8.95% (Wizards)
New York: 8.82% (Knicks, Nets)
Wisconsin: 7.65% (Bucks)
Louisiana: 6% (Pelicans)
Georgia: 6% (Hawks)
North Carolina: 5.75% (Hornets)
Ohio: 5.39% (Cavaliers)
Oklahoma: 5.25% (Thunder)
Massachusetts: 5.15% (Celtics)
Utah: 5% (Utah Jazz)
Colorado: 4.63 (Denver Nuggets)
Arizona: 4.54% (Phoenix Suns)
Michigan: 4.25% (Pistons)
Illinois: 3.75% (Bulls)
Indiana: 3.3% (Pacers)
Pennsylvania: 3.07% (76ers)

Florida: Heat, Magic (0%)
Texas: Spurs, Mavericks, Rockets (0%)
Tennessee: Grizzlies (0%)

Raptors: Canadian tax (more)

Here is a site that purports to calculate the tax and rough change in income:

http://athletetaxes.com/

Comparing Hassan's maximum salary in every city. Reduce the take home pay ($12,205,200) by the following amounts:

Atlanta Hawks: $400,000
Boston Celtics: $293,700
Brooklyn Nets: $1,104,000
Charlotte Hornets: $368,600
Chicago Bulls: $722,900
Cleveland Cavaliers: $565,500
Dallas Mavericks: $0
Denver Nuggets: $228,600
Detroit Pistons: $181,100
Golden State Warriors: $1,300,200
Houston Rockets: $0
Indiana Pacers: $265,900
Los Angeles Clippers: $1,300,200
Los Angeles Lakers: $1,300,200
Memphis Grizzlies: $400,100
Miami Heat: $0
Milwaukee Bucks: $604,100
Minnesota Timberwolves: $879,300
New Orleans Pelicans: $399,400
New York Knickerbockers: $1,104,000
Oklahoma City Thunder: $306,000
Orlando Magic: $0
Philadelphia 76ers: $531,600
Phoenix Suns: $216,600
Portland Trail Blazers: $887,400
Sacramento Kings: $1,300,200
San Antonio Spurs: $0
Toronto Raptors: $1,301,200
Utah Jazz: $275,000
Washington Wizards: $1,830,700

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The point is that in compared to some states a 20M starting salary in Florida is larger than a max in other states (like California). If Hassan chooses to sign in another city, I don't believe it will be because of money. It will be because of a promise that he will be the primary star. Of course that's not something Miami can offer.

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In this case I stretched McRoberts over 5 years (2*2+1). I'd prefer to keep him, but then we'd have to give up Deng.



Essentially we would trot out the same team we have today, but add different veteran players. I would not keep Stoudemire or Green. I'm also inclined to give Haslem a clipboard to clear a roster space.

PG: Weber
G: Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson
W: Joe Johnson, Dorell Wright
F: Winslow, Deng
PF/C: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

To this I’d add these players:

G: Beno Udrih
W: DeAndre Liggins
PF: Greg Whittington or Coty Clarke or a second round pick (if we can trade Josh McRoberts for #52 or #60 for example)
C: one of Dewayne Dedmon (RFA), Jason Smith (prob $$$), Cole Aldrich, Jeff Ayres, Eric Moreland, Robert Sacre (RFA), Roy Hibbert, David Lee (whoever we can get to sign for cheap that can give us good minutes off the bench)


Resulting team can probably make playoffs but have a first or (if Chris Bosh can play) second round exit.

My next proposal will be hated by every Heat fan and I'm still working on it, so... soon.

[loserX]

You guys both have Joe Johnson taking the room MLE...I'm skeptical of that. (It's one thing to take the vet min to chase rings when the Nets are already paying you $20M! Quite another to take peanuts when there's a lot of cash to be made in FA.)

Still, he played well there, players love Miami, and Riley is basically Svengali when it comes to recruiting so who knows, you guys are probably right

[gom]

You guys both have Joe Johnson taking the room MLE...I'm skeptical of that. (It's one thing to take the vet min to chase rings when the Nets are already paying you $20M! Quite another to take peanuts when there's a lot of cash to be made in FA.)

Still, he played well there, players love Miami, and Riley is basically Svengali when it comes to recruiting so who knows, you guys are probably right

I'm not convinced either, loserX. On the other hand (and I know I'm in the minority of Heat fans), I am also unconvinced he's the answer for us. When we most needed him to hit 3s, he came up empty. For me, however, his value this season was showing that a player in that place with those tools opened up opportunities for Deng at PF. The shooter we need, though, is Winslow, and he will be shooting all off season (already probably started training). The plan is for him and Richardson to fire from the wings.

Joe would be a bonus.

By the way, Liggins is also a competent shooter (and plays implacable defense). It's most important that the Heat sign him.

[R-DAWG]

I actually think Hill would be the perfect backcourt mate to Wade because he doesn't demand the ball, consistently hits the 3, which spaces the floor, and he is a superb defender (See Lowry).

Nice write up Texas Chuck.

I agree with this BUTTT, it's not enough value for Dragic especially considering what Miami gave up to get him. Hill might be the best 3 and D PG in the game but Dragic can be a game changer and although he didn't do it consistently he won Miami some playoff games this spring.

Also, George Hill reeks off a player that a contending team will overpay next summer thinking he's the final piece. That's meant more as a compliments to Hill than anything else.

[R-DAWG]

You guys both have Joe Johnson taking the room MLE...I'm skeptical of that. (It's one thing to take the vet min to chase rings when the Nets are already paying you $20M! Quite another to take peanuts when there's a lot of cash to be made in FA.)

Still, he played well there, players love Miami, and Riley is basically Svengali when it comes to recruiting so who knows, you guys are probably right

I'm not convinced either, loserX. On the other hand (and I know I'm in the minority of Heat fans), I am also unconvinced he's the answer for us. When we most needed him to hit 3s, he came up empty. For me, however, his value this season was showing that a player in that place with those tools opened up opportunities for Deng at PF. The shooter we need, though, is Winslow, and he will be shooting all off season (already probably started training). The plan is for him and Richardson to fire from the wings.

Joe would be a bonus.

By the way, Liggins is also a competent shooter (and plays implacable defense). It's most important that the Heat sign him.

I'm not 100% convinced I would offer Johnson the room exception. Might be better spent on a backup, especially if you move or stretch McBob to keep Deng. Miami's actually better with Winslow or Richardson on the floor, maybe even better with Dorrell Wright.

Remember, Johnson turns 35 next month.

Gerald Green is more than capable of matching Johnson's 13% 3 point shooting in the Toronto series,

[Texas Chuck]

I agree with this BUTTT, it's not enough value for Dragic especially considering what Miami gave up to get him. H

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

[gom]

I agree with this BUTTT, it's not enough value for Dragic especially considering what Miami gave up to get him. H

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

But a player's value on the trade market is based on the contract and current performance. Dragic has only improved since the All Star break and his contract's relative value is about to vastly improve.

[R-DAWG]

I agree with this BUTTT, it's not enough value for Dragic especially considering what Miami gave up to get him. H

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

I 100% agree that Miami's sunk cost has no baring on the market. But, Miami's sunk cost sure has baring on their decision to bring him back for another year and hope he bounces back.

If Wade was 32, Bosh didn't have the blood clot issues, and you knew by moving Dragic and saving $$ with Hill you could not only retain Whiteside and Deng, but also add a high level bench piece, I could understand the move. But with all the questions in Miami I don't see anyway that moving Dragic will result in a better potential outcome than what Dragic can be for the Heat.

[Texas Chuck]

I agree with this BUTTT, it's not enough value for Dragic especially considering what Miami gave up to get him. H

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

But a player's value on the trade market is based on the contract and current performance. Dragic has only improved since the All Star break and his contract's relative value is about to vastly improve.

I'm not arguing his value here tho. I was clear in my OP that I think Dragic is a good player on a fair contract. Just pointing out other teams could care less what it cost Miami to acquire him.

The reasons for the trade are that I think Hill is a better fit next to Wade and his much smaller cap hit allows the team to keep Deng. I know you think Deng and Wade (and Whiteside) will all sign for significantly smaller numbers and if that is correct then keeping Dragic is certainly a more viable option. I think your numbers are a touch optimistic and hence the Dragic deal here.

[R-DAWG]

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

But a player's value on the trade market is based on the contract and current performance. Dragic has only improved since the All Star break and his contract's relative value is about to vastly improve.

I'm not arguing his value here tho. I was clear in my OP that I think Dragic is a good player on a fair contract. Just pointing out other teams could care less what it cost Miami to acquire him.

The reasons for the trade are that I think Hill is a better fit next to Wade and his much smaller cap hit allows the team to keep Deng. I know you think Deng and Wade (and Whiteside) will all sign for significantly smaller numbers and if that is correct then keeping Dragic is certainly a more viable option. I think your numbers are a touch optimistic and hence the Dragic deal here.

My post was from the Miami point of view. It's no fun when we agree on things TC, LOL.

Miami needs to be thinking in terms of what if Chris Bosh doesn't come back and what if Dewayne Wade starts to show his age. Your much better off with Goran Dragic than George Hill at that point.

[gom]

Not arguing with you again on Dragic' value, but you do realize the bolded is irrelevant right? Miami's sunk cost has no bearing on Dragic' value on the trade market.

But a player's value on the trade market is based on the contract and current performance. Dragic has only improved since the All Star break and his contract's relative value is about to vastly improve.

I'm not arguing his value here tho. I was clear in my OP that I think Dragic is a good player on a fair contract. Just pointing out other teams could care less what it cost Miami to acquire him.

The reasons for the trade are that I think Hill is a better fit next to Wade and his much smaller cap hit allows the team to keep Deng. I know you think Deng and Wade (and Whiteside) will all sign for significantly smaller numbers and if that is correct then keeping Dragic is certainly a more viable option. I think your numbers are a touch optimistic and hence the Dragic deal here.

Me too, fwiw. I do think the 4 year plan for Deng is good for him. I also think Wade signs.

Personally, I think Whiteside is going to look for greener pastures where he can be a star. It isn't really about money. He'll want to be the face of a franchise like the Lakers. Who wouldn't?

The stickler in my calculations is (as loserX pointed out) Joe Johnson signing for the room. I think that doesn't happen and without him, the team suffers a lot. Then you're scrounging for a replacement because Winslow may not be ready.

[R-DAWG]

But a player's value on the trade market is based on the contract and current performance. Dragic has only improved since the All Star break and his contract's relative value is about to vastly improve.

I'm not arguing his value here tho. I was clear in my OP that I think Dragic is a good player on a fair contract. Just pointing out other teams could care less what it cost Miami to acquire him.

The reasons for the trade are that I think Hill is a better fit next to Wade and his much smaller cap hit allows the team to keep Deng. I know you think Deng and Wade (and Whiteside) will all sign for significantly smaller numbers and if that is correct then keeping Dragic is certainly a more viable option. I think your numbers are a touch optimistic and hence the Dragic deal here.

Me too, fwiw. I do think the 4 year plan for Deng is good for him. I also think Wade signs.

Personally, I think Whiteside is going to look for greener pastures where he can be a star. It isn't really about money. He'll want to be the face of a franchise like the Lakers. Who wouldn't?

The stickler in my calculations is (as loserX pointed out) Joe Johnson signing for the room. I think that doesn't happen and without him, the team suffers a lot. Then you're scrounging for a replacement because Winslow may not be ready.

Dwight Howard