How Good is this Bulls' Team?

[pipfan]

Assume Noah and Gasol walk

1. Bulls go all in and make a huge offer to Barnes. Obviously, he will be overpaid, but we REALLY need an athletic 3 who can shoot, and GS might let him walk in hopes of getting KD. We have the connection with him (Iowa HS with McDermott-same HS as Hoiberg).

2. I figure Taj has positive value, Dunleavy more or less neutral and Calderon negative value-if we could dump all 3 of them, burning only second round picks if necessary, we would have lots more cap space. Lots of teams would want Taj, and give up a first of some sort. Teams might take Dunleavy as a bench shooter for a year. Calderon is a good back up PG, but over paid.

3. Sign Conley to a big deal

Bulls end up with
Conley/Moore/Grant
Butler/Valentine/Moore/Snell
Barnes/Dougie/Snell
Niko/Portis/Barnes
Lopez/Felicano/Portis

Does that team win 50+ and challenge Clev? The D would be very tough-the offense should be solid

[jbk1234]

If I were the Bulls I'd rather have Crabbe at half the cost than Barnes.

[Texas Chuck]

If I were the Bulls I'd rather have Crabbe at half the cost than Barnes.

I bet Crabbe costs more than 50% of what Barnes does. I'd still rather have him as well tho.

[Golabki]

Assume Noah and Gasol walk

1. Bulls go all in and make a huge offer to Barnes. Obviously, he will be overpaid, but we REALLY need an athletic 3 who can shoot, and GS might let him walk in hopes of getting KD. We have the connection with him (Iowa HS with McDermott-same HS as Hoiberg).

2. I figure Taj has positive value, Dunleavy more or less neutral and Calderon negative value-if we could dump all 3 of them, burning only second round picks if necessary, we would have lots more cap space. Lots of teams would want Taj, and give up a first of some sort. Teams might take Dunleavy as a bench shooter for a year. Calderon is a good back up PG, but over paid.

3. Sign Conley to a big deal

Bulls end up with
Conley/Moore/Grant
Butler/Valentine/Moore/Snell
Barnes/Dougie/Snell
Niko/Portis/Barnes
Lopez/Felicano/Portis

Does that team win 50+ and challenge Clev? The D would be very tough-the offense should be solid

1. The odds of the Bulls signing Conley and Barnes are zero
2. If they did I still don't think they really threaten the Cavs, but would probably threaten Raps/Hawks/Celts/Heat/Bobcats

[Golabki]

If I were the Bulls I'd rather have Crabbe at half the cost than Barnes.

I bet Crabbe costs more than 50% of what Barnes does. I'd still rather have him as well tho.

Crabbe mania is getting of control... why is he better than someone random like Meeks?

[jbk1234]

If I were the Bulls I'd rather have Crabbe at half the cost than Barnes.

I bet Crabbe costs more than 50% of what Barnes does. I'd still rather have him as well tho.

Crabbe mania is getting of control.

For me, it's more of how I value Barnes on a max contract.

[Colbinii]

If I were the Bulls I'd rather have Crabbe at half the cost than Barnes.

I bet Crabbe costs more than 50% of what Barnes does. I'd still rather have him as well tho.

Crabbe mania is getting of control... why is he better than someone random like Meeks?

He played 26 MPG on the 5th best team in the west and was a big contributor. He just turned 24 years old in April and showed a huge sign of improvement this season. He shot the 3 ball great at almost 40% and he has good size.

He is much better than Meeks.

[CellarDoor]

I'm really, really afraid of signing Barnes. Sinking 20+m of your cap into a guy who is very likely not even a championship *third* option at any point in the future is not a great start to a rebuild.

[Golabki]

I bet Crabbe costs more than 50% of what Barnes does. I'd still rather have him as well tho.

Crabbe mania is getting of control... why is he better than someone random like Meeks?

He played 26 MPG on the 5th best team in the west and was a big contributor. He just turned 24 years old in April and showed a huge sign of improvement this season. He shot the 3 ball great at almost 40% and he has good size.

He is much better than Meeks.

Crabbe's a pretty good 3pt point shooter, but not a great one, doesn't do much else on offense, doesn't really play much defense. i'm not convinced he's anything more than a serviceable rotation SG, which is what Meeks is too. Crabbe obviously has more upside (although he's not really that young anymore) and isn't coming off an injury... but I think big money to Crabbe (4 years, $60M?) could end up being one of the worst decisions made in this offseason.

[rpa]

Crabbe's a pretty good 3pt point shooter, but not a great one, doesn't do much else on offense, doesn't really play much defense. i'm not convinced he's anything more than a serviceable rotation SG, which is what Meeks is too. Crabbe obviously has more upside (although he's not really that young anymore) and isn't coming off an injury... but I think big money to Crabbe (4 years, $60M?) could end up being one of the worst decisions made in this offseason.

Seconding this.

Crabbe was ranked 85th in DRPM this past year among SGs (first year playing major minutes), had a negative on/off on both sides of the ball, sported a DRTG of 110, and rebounds poorly for his size.

I mean, really, what does this guy do other than shoot reasonably well (not elite, not great, he's just good)?

[drosestruts]

I think it's more realistic that we look like:

Moore/Valetine/Grant/
Butler/Snell/Valentine
Barnes/McDermott/Zipser
Mirotic/Gibson/Portis
Lopez/Felicio

Stretch Dunleavy and Calderon. Maybe add one vet min big man (Nazr Moahmmed, Dewayne Dedmon, somebody)

I think that's a 48 win team, and is a 3-6 seed in the East.

[TGW]

Barnes is such a garbage player. It's really nice to play as the 6th option on the best offensive team in the league in a contract year.

[giberish]

With Conley, it's a 55-win team. Though when push comes to shove in the playoffs they're not that close to a healthy Cleveland team. They're more like this year's Toronto team.

Without Conley they're more 45-win level. An upgrade from last year, but only enough to make the playoffs not to be interesting.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Crabbe's a pretty good 3pt point shooter, but not a great one, doesn't do much else on offense, doesn't really play much defense. i'm not convinced he's anything more than a serviceable rotation SG, which is what Meeks is too. Crabbe obviously has more upside (although he's not really that young anymore) and isn't coming off an injury... but I think big money to Crabbe (4 years, $60M?) could end up being one of the worst decisions made in this offseason.

Seconding this.

Crabbe was ranked 85th in DRPM this past year among SGs (first year playing major minutes), had a negative on/off on both sides of the ball, sported a DRTG of 110, and rebounds poorly for his size.

I mean, really, what does this guy do other than shoot reasonably well (not elite, not great, he's just good)?

Advance stats are nearly meaningless when gauging defense. They are so subjective. Advance stats doesn't say anything about Crabbe defending guys to a 39% FG% last year.

[Golabki]

Crabbe's a pretty good 3pt point shooter, but not a great one, doesn't do much else on offense, doesn't really play much defense. i'm not convinced he's anything more than a serviceable rotation SG, which is what Meeks is too. Crabbe obviously has more upside (although he's not really that young anymore) and isn't coming off an injury... but I think big money to Crabbe (4 years, $60M?) could end up being one of the worst decisions made in this offseason.

Seconding this.

Crabbe was ranked 85th in DRPM this past year among SGs (first year playing major minutes), had a negative on/off on both sides of the ball, sported a DRTG of 110, and rebounds poorly for his size.

I mean, really, what does this guy do other than shoot reasonably well (not elite, not great, he's just good)?

Advance stats are nearly meaningless when gauging defense. They are so subjective. Advance stats doesn't say anything about Crabbe defending guys to a 39% FG% last year.

two things...

1. I'm not sure you are using the word "subjective" correctly.
2. Where's that opponent FG% number from? Nylon calculus seems to have a very different view on opponent production?

[dalton749]

Crabbe and Ross are pretty much the exact same player. If bet he gets in the 15 mil range.

[pipfan]

I figure Butler is an OK #1-top 15/20 player and should be at his peak this coming season-put him down for 22/game
Niko would have to become a legit second option-possible, let's say 18/8
Barnes as a 3rd option is not the end of the world-16/game with solid D
Conley is a top 7-10 pg, let's say 14/game
Lopez should be good for 10/10
McDermott should emerge as a very good 6th man, I could easily see 12/game
Portis, Felicio, Valentine, Moore, Grant, Snell-an OK bench

That team should be #2 in the East-4 out of 5 defenders in starting lineup are positive, and Niko is not terrible on D

Lots of shooting and rebounding would be fine

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Seconding this.

Crabbe was ranked 85th in DRPM this past year among SGs (first year playing major minutes), had a negative on/off on both sides of the ball, sported a DRTG of 110, and rebounds poorly for his size.

I mean, really, what does this guy do other than shoot reasonably well (not elite, not great, he's just good)?

Advance stats are nearly meaningless when gauging defense. They are so subjective. Advance stats doesn't say anything about Crabbe defending guys to a 39% FG% last year.

two things...

1. I'm not sure you are using the word "subjective" correctly.
2. Where's that opponent FG% number from? Nylon calculus seems to have a very different view on opponent production?

1. DRTG and DRPM are both based on somebody opinion of what an impact play is. The numbers that are used in these formulas are weighted by their opinion . Advance defensive stats is much more an theory than law.
2. nba.com defense stats.

[FrontPageNews]

45-50 win team. Probably a second round exit. Won't contend with the cavs anytime soon unless Barnes magically turns into an all star.

[Pipp33]

I think I would prefer that they clear the decks this coming season - trade Butler for a young stud + picks and build from there. By overpaying Barnes, who no one knows how he will go outside of Warrior's system, could end up being a terrible investment. See what we can get from Valentine this season and also evaluate how Niko and Doug go as more featured players.