Love to Portland, Okafor to Boston

[SMTBSI]

Don't you know oyoyer is in Ainge's inner circle?

He KNOWS what Ainge is offering teams and what his plans are and what the negotiations are. He's obviously got inside knowledge. I mean how else can he so consistently state as fact what Ainge is doing and what his plans are and what his strategy is?

He's not just a salty Philly fan.

After a period of observation, I have reached the same conclusion.

What I have not yet determined is what purpose of Ainge's it serves to have him to salt every remotely Celtics-related thread on the T&T board and wiretap with that "I overvalue my assets" opinion. There's obviously some deep front office meta-gaming going on here, that I haven't untangled just yet.

Perhaps instead of outwardly directing your pent up anger, you should point it where it is deserved? You say comment in every thread, I say ignore 49 and comment in the 50th. There is only one person who puts out enough smoke to choke out a third world country yet nothing ever gets done.

Sorry, but this is a swing and a miss. Since day one I've preferred to draft and keep all the Brooklyn picks. I've gone on record with this many times. (I always overvalue youth.)

So, no, I'm not angry. I'd be angry if we moved those picks for a near-sighted objective. (In fact, I was against maxing Horford... but have come to terms with it.)

Whether it's an accurate assessment or not, you are, in fact, the lead drum-beater on this site for the "Ainge overvalues his assets" club. The question is, why?


Hm, no it's not. That's getting too ad hominem for me. I poked my fun, I'll let it be.

Still curious to hear thoughts on this post, however.

[patman52]

Great for Portland and Boston, decent for Cleveland, fiery pits of hell awful for Philly.

I hate it for Boston... And I think the reporting on this topic pretty clearly indicates the celtics would not do this

The moment the Celics gave their pick to Silver, the value went down. When he announced Brown, the value went way down. This is no longer 3 for Okafor, and it would be an absolute steal for them. As such, the Sixers would never, ever do it.

if they would have took dunn they would be in the same type of situation as the sixers with their centers, looking to dump one player while every other team in the league knows they have to dump one of the PG. The pick value did go down, but they got the player they wanted. not the player 3 other teams wanted. Last year the sixers took the player they believed was the best player, not the best player for their team and now they are looking to trade that player and they are going to lose value. Next year the celtics are not going to look to trade Brown.

[SkyHookFTW]

If Embiid can't play Philly goes from three centers to no centers, plus they are losing their best defender. I would think Philly runs from this.

[ckchen]

After a period of observation, I have reached the same conclusion.

What I have not yet determined is what purpose of Ainge's it serves to have him to salt every remotely Celtics-related thread on the T&T board and wiretap with that "I overvalue my assets" opinion. There's obviously some deep front office meta-gaming going on here, that I haven''t untangled just yet.

You can try to blame it on one person, but quite frankly a ton of people outside Celtics fans think that Ainge is overvaluing his assets trying to hold on for that one incredibly lopsided deal. Ignoring what trades were or weren't offered - we can see that Ainge for the past several drafts has been holding onto picks that he intended on trading, and then ended up having to draft players with those picks (regardless of how those players are or were valued) - back to the last three drafts.

So on one hand despite a basically stated intent to make deals for the past three drafts, Ainge seems unable to make any deals - how can you have anything but the impression that he's continuing to hold out for too much or demanding too much from other teams? Couple that with stories, for instance, that he also demanded the 2017 LAL pick + Noel or Okafor in return for the #3 pick in this draft, Or that he couldn't make a Butler deal because he refused to include any of the Brooklyn picks, I think it's perfectly reasonable to make these "jabs" about Ainge.

Well firstly by no means is it being blamed on one person and I think oyoyer is a great poster, just having a little fun jab at him as he is a very out-spoken anti-Ainge/anti-Celtics poster (in a fun way, not in a malicious way or anything). Hopefully he took it as it was intended.

But still there is absolutely an anti-Ainge saltiness that is rife within the T&T board. And it's for a myriad of reasons: Celtics media bias, Ainge's use of the media, actual low balls made by Ainge, I would argue a tinge of jealousy in some cases and so on and so forth. And that's more-so what's being attacked here rather than the idea that Ainge is overvaluing his assets.

But to your point about "how can you have anything but the impression that he's continuing to hold out for too much or demanding too much from other teams?"

There is no way you can say categorically that's what Ainge is doing. You can quote reports he asked for the 2017 LAL pick plus Oak, but you're forgetting that there were reports he offered the pre-lottery Brooklyn 2016 pick for Okafor during the season. You can point to the Jimmy Butler negotiations, which we really didn't find all that much out about to be honest, but you're also forgetting him offering a over-market value package for #9 from the Heat in 2015. So what's the real story?

Sure one conclusion that you can reach from all the reports and rumors is that Ainge is overvaluing his assets in every negotiation and that's a perfectly reasonable theory. But by no means can you state it as fact because it's just not. It's just as plausible that every time Ainge inquires about a guy his team asks for an obscene amount because they know Ainge has a ton of assets and he just isn't interested in overpaying, no?

And that really sums up my issue with the Ainge saltiness. By all means speculate about his strategy and why things aren't getting done, but don't speak about it like we have all the facts because we rarely if ever do get them with non-trades. And to see it so regularly stated in almost EVERY thread that involves the Celtics that Ainge is overvaluing his assets as if you KNOW that's true instead of it being speculative gets annoying and will occasionally be admonished because of it.

Fair enough, perhaps saying "how can you have anything but the impression" was a bit strong - but my point was rather something more like it's more than perfectly reasonable to have the impression...and still arrive at the same point. Not implying that it's fact, perhaps something more like there's a lot of smoke to indicate that fire.

The more salient point should probably be - why does Ainge put so much value in all of these first round picks when he's running out of room and roster space to keep drafting them? At a certain point having a roster littered with the James Youngs and RJ Hunters of the world is pointless. And the same extent, even the Smarts and Roziers. While they might have some value and turn out to be a solid player (and would those Brooklyn picks) - you have to question why values them so much when he's literally running out of roster space (and playing time) to draft them. By the same token that everyone is claiming that Philly's position with 4 big men is untenable and therefore a trade has to happen, what good is Ainge doing drafting guard after guard? What will that 2017 Brooklyn pick be worth even if it's a great PG/SG (the alleged strength of next years draft)? Is he going to draft yet another PG to that mix of 4 or so he has already? At a certain point you have to cash the chips in - you can't continue to hoard picks for the sake of hoarding - which is exactly the same point Philly is reaching where more 1st round picks at this point doesn't really do them much good.

[the_process]

After a period of observation, I have reached the same conclusion.

What I have not yet determined is what purpose of Ainge's it serves to have him to salt every remotely Celtics-related thread on the T&T board and wiretap with that "I overvalue my assets" opinion. There's obviously some deep front office meta-gaming going on here, that I haven't untangled just yet.

Perhaps instead of outwardly directing your pent up anger, you should point it where it is deserved? You say comment in every thread, I say ignore 49 and comment in the 50th. There is only one person who puts out enough smoke to choke out a third world country yet nothing ever gets done.

So does Ainge cc you when he emails this smoke to the media and that's how you know it's all from the Celtics organization and him or what?

I mean it surely can't be BS made up by media members and wannabe media members who know that Celtics rumors get them clicks and attention. It's not like 99% of the rumors that are in our rumor thread aren't decried as such. No it's definitely Ainge leaking this stuff 100% of the time.

I mean come on now. I'm sure Ainge uses the media as much as anybody else in the league, but you just sound salty.

I do agree that some of it is just made up for clicks by the apparent legion of Bostonites in the national media. All the Westbrook stuff, for example.

However, if you go through and see who has more to gain on a lot of the stuff that is thrown around, it is Boston.

Also, saying Ainge is waiting for Billy King is more saying he's waiting for a GM to rip off, and less that he overvalues his assets. Important nuance, I think.

[SMTBSI]

Also, saying Ainge is waiting for Billy King is more saying he's waiting for a GM to rip off, and less that he overvalues his assets. Important nuance, I think.

This is valid. I have no way of knowing if this is true of Ainge - he may feel more pressure to make a move than I - but, were I running the team, since I'm perfectly happy with just staying the course and drafting/developing, I'd absolutely be operating under a clear-win-or-nothing mindset. (Bit of an oversimplification, as always; the "win" doesn't necessarily have to be on "pure value" (whatever that is) - moves that are lateral on talent can be positive on fit, etc.)

Anyway, back into the wilds for another week for me. I don't expect much to happen while I'm gone.

[Texas Chuck]

Boy do I hate the Boston/Philly stuff especially when Ainge gets involved. But props to you guys here for handling that very civilly. I can't thank you enough as a board reg and as a board Mod.

[cl2117]

The more salient point should probably be - why does Ainge put so much value in all of these first round picks when he's running out of room and roster space to keep drafting them? At a certain point having a roster littered with the James Youngs and RJ Hunters of the world is pointless. And the same extent, even the Smarts and Roziers. While they might have some value and turn out to be a solid player (and would those Brooklyn picks) - you have to question why values them so much when he's literally running out of roster space (and playing time) to draft them. By the same token that everyone is claiming that Philly's position with 4 big men is untenable and therefore a trade has to happen, what good is Ainge doing drafting guard after guard? What will that 2017 Brooklyn pick be worth even if it's a great PG/SG (the alleged strength of next years draft)? Is he going to draft yet another PG to that mix of 4 or so he has already? At a certain point you have to cash the chips in - you can't continue to hoard picks for the sake of hoarding - which is exactly the same point Philly is reaching where more 1st round picks at this point doesn't really do them much good.

This is again a point I just don't understand. I don't get where it's coming from that Ainge doesn't want to part with these picks. The only ones he has reportedly balked at including in deals are the BKN picks and his hesitation is understandable.

The picks that land James Young and Rozier and Hunter are all mid-late picks. They're not the kinds of picks that are going to land you stars or even impact players most likely. We're talking about picks 16, 17, 23, 28, 31, 33, not top 10 picks (Smart excluded but they weren't in a spot to compete when they drafted him anyway).

And he hasn't been unwilling to part with them. He reportedly offered as many as 4 first round picks, all of that ilk mid-teens/20s, to Charlotte during the 2015 draft to get Justice Winslow, but they took Frank the Tank. I think that shows an absolute willingness to consolidate the likes of James Young and RJ Hunter into higher ceiling players, but other teams just aren't biting even when you try to overpay.

And those types of picks haven't been stumbling blocks to trades. There hasn't been a single report out that I've seen saying Ainge let a deal fall through because he wanted to hold back a non-lottery pick.

The stumbling blocks have been when teams have called on the BKN picks. And I think this idea that Ainge is overvaluing his assets comes in part because those picks routinely get undervalued. People said the 2016 BKN pick wouldn't be that valuable because BKN has no reason to tank and yet it ends up #3. In another draft that's an amazing asset to be trying to package for a star, but unfortunately it was a "two man draft".

The same was said about the 2017 BKN pick because they have all that cap space and no reason to tank and yet they lose Thad/Jack and bring in Lin/Bennett/Scola/Levert and are likely to be just as bad if not worse. So once again you've got a potential #1 pick, likely top 5 and there is every reason to hold that kind of an asset close to the chest.

And yes the draft may be heavy on a position they are already stocked at, but that is no reason to trade it now, especially when those players are supposed to have much better upside than their 2016 counterparts making them even better trade assets.

Yes at a certain point you have to cash in your chips and come away with something. There is absolutely a roster crunch coming up as well. But you can't point to the likes of James Young and say Ainge overvalues his assets. He's tried to trade those kind of assets in bulk on multiple occasions without success. And it's unfair to say he overvalues his BKN picks when this year's turned out better than anyone claimed it would and next year's is poised to do the same.

He needs stars and not mediocre players. He's holding out for a deal for a star, which are few and far between. I mean just look at the deals for big names that have taken place and let me know where Ainge should have stepped in to get one. There hasn't been one to my recollection.

And while he likely could have traded some of these middling guys for more established vets, it does make sense to hold onto them. You aren't ready to compete for a championship, they are better trade fodder and they are more likely to make a surprise developmental jump than a guy who's been in the league for a while.

So I jut don't think it's fair to say he puts SO much value in these guys, when he has tried to consolidate them, when he's not balked at including them in deals unless they're from Brooklyn and when it makes sense to keep them in the fold for future trades if possible.

[ckchen]

The stumbling blocks have been when teams have called on the BKN picks. And I think this idea that Ainge is overvaluing his assets comes in part because those picks routinely get undervalued. People said the 2016 BKN pick wouldn't be that valuable because BKN has no reason to tank and yet it ends up #3. In another draft that's an amazing asset to be trying to package for a star, but unfortunately it was a "two man draft".

Here's the thing though - why are the BKN picks a stumbling block? Even if it's a potential top 5 pick - that's still purely potential and probably a 19 yr old kid. If you have the opportunity to turn that pick into a Jimmy Butler or whatever - why should that pick be a stumbling block? Because it MIGHT turn out to be someone great, and then in 2 yrs after that potentially great player is drafted, he benefits the team? Based on where the rest of the roster is currently, and their positioning in the playoffs, etc. you would think that it shouldn't really be that hard of a decision. Again, my point is, at some point "playing for later" has to become "playing for now"

[cl2117]

The stumbling blocks have been when teams have called on the BKN picks. And I think this idea that Ainge is overvaluing his assets comes in part because those picks routinely get undervalued. People said the 2016 BKN pick wouldn't be that valuable because BKN has no reason to tank and yet it ends up #3. In another draft that's an amazing asset to be trying to package for a star, but unfortunately it was a "two man draft".

Here's the thing though - why are the BKN picks a stumbling block? Even if it's a potential top 5 pick - that's still purely potential and probably a 19 yr old kid. If you have the opportunity to turn that pick into a Jimmy Butler or whatever - why should that pick be a stumbling block? Because it MIGHT turn out to be someone great, and then in 2 yrs after that potentially great player is drafted, he benefits the team? Based on where the rest of the roster is currently, and their positioning in the playoffs, etc. you would think that it shouldn't really be that hard of a decision. Again, my point is, at some point "playing for later" has to become "playing for now"

Because they are his most valuable trade pieces and they are undervalued. I'm not saying he shouldn't trade them for an established star, that's what all Celtics fans want, but he can't be cavalier in the way he uses them because there is a finite amount of them.

Which brings me back to my original point which is: Are you aware of the details of the negotiations he was having with other teams and know that he refused to include Brooklyn picks? I don't and I don't see how anyone else could unless I missed something.

If Chicago is asking for all three BKN picks plus Crowder for Butler the C's should be saying no right?

And if Chicago is asking for Amir Johnson and the BKN 2018 they should say yes right?

We have no idea what the offers are so we can't speculate as to whether they should be a stumbling block or not. Should they be off the table? No. Should they be included just to get a deal done? No.

So the idea that Ainge is overvauling his assets because he has yet to get a deal done seems ill-conceived to me. Just because the roster is filling up with the likes of Hunter and Rozier doesn't mean he's overvaluing assets because the picks used on those guys aren't what teams are after anyway and he's more than willing to part with them. And just because he has balked at including some of those BKN picks in packages for a star doesn't mean he's overvaluing them either given that we have no idea what else is in that package.

At some point you have to "play for now", but at no point should you be irresponsible and loose with your assets otherwise you end up broke and without anything to show for it.