FA16 by the numbers; Most/Least productive contracts in 2016-17 and beyond

[caliban]

Doubt anyone here is interested but I had some stats piled up for something else when I got bored and decided to ad salary on top of them to see what the Excel sheet thought about the contracts handed out this summer. Then I though why not share it, might be some other nerd out there. This is not an intent to reflect the total value of the contracts, only the productivity of them in 2016-17. Off course if the contract looks bad here there's a slim chance they'll look good later on, if you believe in predictability and numbers* that is. Let's get to it and take this for what it is.

10M+, Should be water carriers

The good
Non surprisingly Marvin Williams discount deal comes out very favorably and the Hornets is understandably very happy about this one. The Spurs as per usual didn't skip a beat and found the best Big-man deal on the market to replace Duncan the tall with. No one takes notice. At the top is off course Durant and Le James whenever he signs, but the noteworthy solid signing the Cavs are about? to make is J.R Smith for a rumored 15M per. Not as silly as some would suggest. Good bong for the buck and Smith is doing the right thing in holding out.

The bad
Most of the deals discussed and voted on here on this board do represent in the bottom 10 with two notable exceptions. 1) This model thinks Bazemore got way too much money for his slim one year of production. Very risky. 2) the Clarkson deal whom most seem to be positive or neutral towards was the worst deal handed out in the 10+ M category in term of next year impact. Ad on the long term projection of the Mozgov and possibly Deng deals, O'boy.



Middle Class, Should be rotation players

The good
Cole Aldrich unsurprisingly at the top. That's no doubt as good of value as you gonna get a summer like this and it will be interesting to follow GM Thibs going forward. Jackson got the best back up deal on the market, a big need if/when Rose takes a seat. Well played. The model generally thinks that there was quite a few solid deals in this salary span actually.

The bad
Two deal stands out here. Andrew Nicholson to Wizards and D.J. Augustin to Magic. Players with replacement level productivity should not get payed middle class cash and if you absolutely have to pay them, at least do so on short term.



Bargain Bin, Gems and rubble

Gems
Love the top5 deals here. Life is sweet at the top when the ring-chasers be coming.

Rubble
Not much of value for Brooklyn or Pelicans at the end of free agency. These teams need to hit something, soon.



Bonus; All (Most?) current contracts in one list, rookie contracts and such excluded. Those pre cap explosion deals sure is gonna increase in value after another summer.

Spoiler:

*

Spoiler:

The minute estimate is lacking but the best I got on hand right now. cal48 is a blend of some of the more powerful predictive stats out there. Highest weight is given to BPM but there also some npi-rapm, ws and in house stuff in there

[meekrab]

Good bong for the buck

Sweet typo.

I'm glad this metric makes it clear Dion Waiters isn't actually a bargain contract. Afflalo being Rivers-tier is shocking, though. And Wade was clearly not signed for exclusively basketball value.

[caliban]

Good bong for the buck

Sweet typo.

I'm glad this metric makes it clear Dion Waiters isn't actually a bargain contract. Afflalo being Rivers-tier is shocking, though. And Wade was clearly not signed for exclusively basketball value.

Doesn't look like a typo to me

Yea, The only way a replacement lvl players looks good is in a suit on your opponents team bench. No such thing as a bargain contract on a bad player when you'd rather pay not to have that guy play anyway.

Afflalo couldn't even get minutes over Sasha Vujacic towards the end of last year if I recall correctly. Never liked him much but that is really bad for sure.

[caliban]

Updated with the last few Big-name signings and estimated performance over the entirety of the contracts handed out this summer. Two general notes; 1) As most would agree, Max salaries really gets the stars under-payed and, 2) past age 30 performance is hard to project because there's no data over the guys that got too bad to play

Something that's been touched up on in the Dallas review, namely who the most valuable player going forward of Harrison Barnes and Chandler Parsons is, looks like a win for the Mavs in this model. Availability is an underrated factor.

The B. Beal and D. Derozan contracts are a huge sum of money tied up in nothingness. Big anchors for both franchises going forward, but Masai will probably get a useful player or two along with a future 1st for DeMare as soon as K. Lowry is on the books again I'd guess.



The A. Nicholson and D.J. Augustin deals sure doesn't look any better in full display. Truly ugly 4-year contracts right there. In fact there's a whole lot of bad contracts in the bottom half of this salary span. Money sure was burning holes in them pockets this summer but that doesn't necessary mean one has to lock up so so players on long term sinkers.