KOTB: Magic / Heat

[tiderulz]

Whoa, when did Dragic get such value? He's 30, never been anything special as a player, and is owed $71M over the next four years. I'm not sure I'd take his contract. Meanwhile Vuc is a productive young big man on a friendlier deal. Vuc is easily worth more.

Doesn't matter what you think about Vuc's value, honestly. Fact of the matter is, he holds far less value to Miami than Dragic does. No way we trade or starting point guard for what would be or backup center.

BTW, centers who play no defense hold very little value to most people.

this whole thing about Vuc not playing defense needs to stop. He plays defense and plays very decent man defense. he just isnt a good rim protector or help defense.

[BBallFreak]

Collison + first round pick + Skal + any needed salary filler

That would not work at this point in time as Miami is, 1) not looking to tank and 2) wouldn't trade for Collison, given that he's facing suspension.

Miami doesn't tank, but if we're trading Dragic, your basic premise is correct. Its a tank move so it wouldn't happen until later in the season, presumably after Collison's suspension and after its apparent that Miami stinks.

didnt Riley coach a 15 win team the year after winning 44? what was that then?

Right, and he didn't start off by tanking. He saw how things were going and threw in the towel. He never intentionally fields a bad team. That's my point. If we trade Dragic, it'll be after things fall apart, and he'll probably try to include McBob. Riley normally prefers expiring contracts when he does those trades, because he values cap space a great deal. No clue about this season because the only marquee name is Blake Griffin, and he seems destined to re-sign. I don't see Riley looking for high draft picks. Not his usual M.O. but I could see him trying to steal a disgruntled player and rebuild that way.

[puppa bear]

Value wise, I think it's fine. But then fit wise I think it's horrible.

Orlando: this says we don't trust Payton to run a winning team. This also breaks the rule of never trading big for small, unless you win the trade. I don't think it's that clear cut that they win here. They should probably ask to get Reed back as well, to give an extra back-up for Biz.

Miami: this is just stupid. I'm sorry, I'm not normally this harsh, but trading the only starting caliber PG for a big, who will back-up our All-Defensive C is just pointless. I just don't see the whole stashing value thing, because playing Vuc behind Whiteside for a season will reduce his value. And no, he cannot play next to Whiteside.
I can see a Dragic for Payton type of deal, but this is just non-sensical.

KOTB: no

[leoshes]

So we trade our starting PG for a back up who will get little min, when we already have Willie Reed to do that ? & on a far smaller contract ? I guess i must of missed that 3rd team where Vuc was heading to, thats giving us a 2017 unprotected 1st round pick while taking McRoberts & giving us expiring contracts.

[Resistance]

So we trade our starting PG for a back up who will get little min, when we already have Willie Reed to do that ? & on a far smaller contract ? I guess i must of missed that 3rd team where Vuc was heading to, thats giving us a 2017 unprotected 1st round pick while taking McRoberts & giving us expiring contracts.

Do you really expect to get a 2017 unprotected first round pick for Dragic?

[leoshes]

So we trade our starting PG for a back up who will get little min, when we already have Willie Reed to do that ? & on a far smaller contract ? I guess i must of missed that 3rd team where Vuc was heading to, thats giving us a 2017 unprotected 1st round pick while taking McRoberts & giving us expiring contracts.

Do you really expect to get a 2017 unprotected first round pick for Dragic?

Honestly no.

But by FEB his stock should rise enough to where i believe we can get a top 10.

[puppa bear]

So we trade our starting PG for a back up who will get little min, when we already have Willie Reed to do that ? & on a far smaller contract ? I guess i must of missed that 3rd team where Vuc was heading to, thats giving us a 2017 unprotected 1st round pick while taking McRoberts & giving us expiring contracts.

Do you really expect to get a 2017 unprotected first round pick for Dragic?

Honestly no.

But by FEB his stock should rise enough to where i believe we can get a top 10.

The issue is that any team trading for Dragic should be getting better. So, the chance of it being a top-10 in almost 0.

It's gotta be a team looking to take the next step, so a couple of late firsts & a project is more likely.

Honestly, who do you see as a trading partner?

[j-ragg]

I could understand why Heat wouldn't wanna. No sense trading your starting point for a backup to your best player.

[HartfordWhalers]

Whoa, when did Dragic get such value? He's 30, never been anything special as a player, and is owed $71M over the next four years. I'm not sure I'd take his contract. Meanwhile Vuc is a productive young big man on a friendlier deal. Vuc is easily worth more.

I'm with you on this. I really need someone besides a Miami fan to convince me of Dragic's value, because I don't see it at all.

If I were the Nets I wouldn't swap Lin for Dragic, and I don't suddenly see Lin as worth a lotto pick or more.

[HartfordWhalers]

I could understand why Heat wouldn't wanna. No sense trading your starting point for a backup to your best player.

And I'm with this, but here if this were on the table, I think you just find a third team to give you value for Vucevic.

[puppa bear]

Whoa, when did Dragic get such value? He's 30, never been anything special as a player, and is owed $71M over the next four years. I'm not sure I'd take his contract. Meanwhile Vuc is a productive young big man on a friendlier deal. Vuc is easily worth more.

I'm with you on this. I really need someone besides a Miami fan to convince me of Dragic's value, because I don't see it at all.

If I were the Nets I wouldn't swap Lin for Dragic, and I don't suddenly see Lin as worth a lotto pick or more.

Whole heartedly disagree here. I feel that I rate Dragic's value in a much more realistic light than other Heat fans, but Lin does not have the same I court impact as Dragic. Lin has become much more than a jersey seller, but he's just not the same. I know contract has a lot to do with perception, but for some reason there are very players who have transitioned from overpaid to underpaid (or even just appropriately paid), despite the hideous contracts that were given out this FA. His contract is that of a starting caliber PG, and that's what he is. Teague will get more than him, but in my mind is comparable.

Do I think he's worth the prospect and 2 lotto picks that some Heat fans are asking for? No. But he's worth more than Lin, and by Feb this will be much more evident.

I could understand why Heat wouldn't wanna. No sense trading your starting point for a backup to your best player.

And I'm with this, but here if this were on the table, I think you just find a third team to give you value for Vucevic.

As players in a vacuum Vuc is a great value comparison for Dragic, but the issue for me is that Vuc is a big. Bigs get more $ and are rarer, so I still hold to the "never trade big for small unless you win the trade" school of thought. For that reason alone I see Vuc with more trade value.

To us, his value is drained, so a third team would be needed to make this sensible for Miami. Some of the value could be leeched off to Magic, if they agree to take McBob as well.

More realistic to me is something based around Dragic for Payton, but I know got canned by both sides.

[HartfordWhalers]

And I'm with this, but here if this were on the table, I think you just find a third team to give you value for Vucevic.

As players in a vacuum Vuc is a great value comparison for Dragic, but the issue for me is that Vuc is a big. Bigs get more $ and are rarer, so I still hold to the "never trade big for small unless you win the trade" school of thought. For that reason alone I see Vuc with more trade value.

To us, his value is drained, so a third team would be needed to make this sensible for Miami. Some of the value could be leeched off to Magic, if they agree to take McBob as well.

More realistic to me is something based around Dragic for Payton, but I know got canned by both sides.

What about (getting more fans upset):

Orlando out: Vucevic
Orlando in: Dragic

Miami out: Dragic
Miami in: Rubio

Minn out: Rubio
Minn in: Vucevic

(I would tweak value, but I'm not getting near how for now).


Minnesota gives Dunn the keys, and a KAT/Vucevic frontcourt could be really great at complimenting each other, while getting 3 days younger!

Miami gets a much younger pg for their retool

Orlando gets abetter fit than Rubio for spacing reasons

[tiderulz]

Whoa, when did Dragic get such value? He's 30, never been anything special as a player, and is owed $71M over the next four years. I'm not sure I'd take his contract. Meanwhile Vuc is a productive young big man on a friendlier deal. Vuc is easily worth more.

I'm with you on this. I really need someone besides a Miami fan to convince me of Dragic's value, because I don't see it at all.

If I were the Nets I wouldn't swap Lin for Dragic, and I don't suddenly see Lin as worth a lotto pick or more.

Whole heartedly disagree here. I feel that I rate Dragic's value in a much more realistic light than other Heat fans, but Lin does not have the same I court impact as Dragic. Lin has become much more than a jersey seller, but he's just not the same. I know contract has a lot to do with perception, but for some reason there are very players who have transitioned from overpaid to underpaid (or even just appropriately paid), despite the hideous contracts that were given out this FA. His contract is that of a starting caliber PG, and that's what he is. Teague will get more than him, but in my mind is comparable.

Do I think he's worth the prospect and 2 lotto picks that some Heat fans are asking for? No. But he's worth more than Lin, and by Feb this will be much more evident.

Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT the going rate for a starting caliber PG. especially not one on the decline for the past 2 years

[blazeyo]

KOTB - Yes cause I wanna be different!

[caliban]

Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT the going rate for a starting caliber PG. especially not one on the decline for the past 2 years

Thanks for the numbers, you are well informed. I always thought that he made 17/year and am now realizing I've made a complete fool of myself in past discussions. Time for me to update the spreadsheet. And you are right obviously, 20M/year for a starting point-guard seems like a ridiculous contract to hand out going forward. I bet at most 3 PG's gets that kind of money the next few years evidently by this summer when non of the starting PG's got even close to that.

[puppa bear]

Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT the going rate for a starting caliber PG. especially not one on the decline for the past 2 years

Dragic's contract is 5 years $85m. Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT 85 divided by 5!

He is earning $15.9m this year, and his contract tops out at $19.2m. His salary is not in the top-50 in the league (51st to be exact), and his salary is comparable to other PGs of a similar level signed around the same time.
Just looking at the next 5 PGs by 2016-17 salary:
Reggie Jackson ($14.96m - year 2 of a 5 year deal) - close, but Reggie had showed less in his shorter time in the league, when signed to this RFA deal.
Tony Parker ($14.45m - year 2 of a 3 year deal) - better value than Goran, but on the downward side of his career. This deal was one to balance costs between him, TD & Manu. Could have gotten more.
Eric Bledsoe ($14m - year 3 of a 5 year deal) - Bledsoe held Suns over the barrel & got a deal worth more than he had shown he could produce (due to injuries). This RFA is not considered to be bad, especially with the new TV money.
Rajon Rondo ($14m - year 1 of a 2 year deal) - Rondo is a better player, but he has a huge wrap for being difficult to work with, and provides no spacing at all.
Ricky Rubio ($13.4m - year 2 of a 4 year deal) - a rookie extension deal that was signed before the teams knew of the size of the cap jump due to the TV money (like Bledsoe). Never considered a bad deal, but is for a defensive PG who provides no shooting at all.

His deal is not terrible, it's just a couple places above where people might feel warm and fuzzy about it - for that's only $1m lower. The fact that people (like you) think he's getting $20m a season just goes to show the misinformation out there.

Edit: information taken from http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/point-guard/
Median salary this year for the top-30 highest paid PGs: $12.1m.

[tiderulz]

Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT the going rate for a starting caliber PG. especially not one on the decline for the past 2 years

Dragic's contract is 5 years $85m. Not sure, but if you are talking about Dragic, $20mil/yr is NOT 85 divided by 5!

He is earning $15.9m this year, and his contract tops out at $19.2m. His salary is not in the top-50 in the league (51st to be exact), and his salary is comparable to other PGs of a similar level signed around the same time.
Just looking at the next 5 PGs by 2016-17 salary:
Reggie Jackson ($14.96m - year 2 of a 5 year deal) - close, but Reggie had showed less in his shorter time in the league, when signed to this RFA deal.
Tony Parker ($14.45m - year 2 of a 3 year deal) - better value than Goran, but on the downward side of his career. This deal was one to balance costs between him, TD & Manu. Could have gotten more.
Eric Bledsoe ($14m - year 3 of a 5 year deal) - Bledsoe held Suns over the barrel & got a deal worth more than he had shown he could produce (due to injuries). This RFA is not considered to be bad, especially with the new TV money.
Rajon Rondo ($14m - year 1 of a 2 year deal) - Rondo is a better player, but he has a huge wrap for being difficult to work with, and provides no spacing at all.
Ricky Rubio ($13.4m - year 2 of a 4 year deal) - a rookie extension deal that was signed before the teams knew of the size of the cap jump due to the TV money (like Bledsoe). Never considered a bad deal, but is for a defensive PG who provides no shooting at all.

His deal is not terrible, it's just a couple places above where people might feel warm and fuzzy about it - for that's only $1m lower. The fact that people (like you) think he's getting $20m a season just goes to show the misinformation out there.

Edit: information taken from http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/point-guard/
Median salary this year for the top-30 highest paid PGs: $12.1m.

my apologies, $17.5 mil over the next four years averaged out is still not the going rate for a starting PG.

[caliban]

my apologies, $17.5 mil over the next four years averaged out is still not the going rate for a starting PG.

It's definitely not the going rate. Conley did not sign a 30,5M/year contract and Westbrook a 28,5M/year contract to an average of 30,5M thus summer. Heck I'll trow in Lin there for you as well even tho no one considers him a starting caliber point guard for an average of ~24M a year.

[leoshes]

Do you really expect to get a 2017 unprotected first round pick for Dragic?

Honestly no.

But by FEB his stock should rise enough to where i believe we can get a top 10.

The issue is that any team trading for Dragic should be getting better. So, the chance of it being a top-10 in almost 0.

It's gotta be a team looking to take the next step, so a couple of late firsts & a project is more likely.

Honestly, who do you see as a trading partner?

Off the top of my head, these are teams that can use an improvement at PG.

Brooklyn
Philadelphia
Los Angeles Lakers
Sacramento
Milwaukee
Dallas
Houston
New Orleans
San Antonio
Orlando
Denver

& i expect some starting PG will go down with injury, so by FED there should be a couple more.

[tiderulz]

my apologies, $17.5 mil over the next four years averaged out is still not the going rate for a starting PG.

It's definitely not the going rate. Conley did not sign a 30,5M/year contract and Westbrook a 28,5M/year contract to an average of 30,5M thus summer. Heck I'll trow in Lin there for you as well even tho no one considers him a starting caliber point guard for an average of ~24M a year.

Dragic 7th highest paid PG. that isnt average