2014 Draft Class Extensions

[Smitty731]

Hey all!

Wrote about extensions for the 2014 Draft Class. Really interesting class, especially with the injuries at the top of the class.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/245269/Previewing-The-2014-Draft-Class-Extension-Market

Let me know what you think.

Thanks!

Smitty

[giberish]

I think you're on the high side with several predictions.

I can't see Philly giving Embiid a 5 year max off of 31 games. There's a huge downside there. The huge $$ in the 4th and 5th years there could be crushing as other guys leave their cheap rookie deal (if he can't play regularly). If he plays well next season they could offer him the same deal in a year but not this summer. If Embiid gets an extension this summer they'll be some discount off of a 25% max deal. Either less $$/yr or with the last years unguaranteed.

Several other players seem way too high. McDourmott at $15M/yf? That's not 'ok even if he never develops into a starter' money, that's solid starter money and it's just tough to see his defense holding up enough to be that valuable. Smart at $20M/yr? That's money for a #3 guy (or so). Especially as a defense-first perimeter guy (who usually don't get the biggest $$) that's a lot. Gordon at $25M/yr?. Again really high.

IMO all 3 deals are what they might get next year if they have a strong 4th season but there's no reason to lock those deals in now.

[PharmD]

Hey all!

Wrote about extensions for the 2014 Draft Class. Really interesting class, especially with the injuries at the top of the class.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/245269/Previewing-The-2014-Draft-Class-Extension-Market

Let me know what you think.

Thanks!

Smitty

Wiggins will get a 5 year max because you can have two 5-year max guys in the new CBA. Because Minnesota's owner fought for that.

[bondom34]

I'm now terrified for McDermott.

[Slava]

Do the Celtics really want to tie up $80M in Marcus Smart when they already have long term money invested in Horford and IT coming due for a pay hike? They are also heavily in every major free agent pitch in the summers.

[Smitty731]

Do the Celtics really want to tie up $80M in Marcus Smart when they already have long term money invested in Horford and IT coming due for a pay hike? They are also heavily in every major free agent pitch in the summers.

They'll likely use their cap space this summer and be a capped out team for the next few years. And they love Smart. More than most know. He's going to get paid.

[Smitty731]

I think you're on the high side with several predictions.

I can't see Philly giving Embiid a 5 year max off of 31 games. There's a huge downside there. The huge $$ in the 4th and 5th years there could be crushing as other guys leave their cheap rookie deal (if he can't play regularly). If he plays well next season they could offer him the same deal in a year but not this summer. If Embiid gets an extension this summer they'll be some discount off of a 25% max deal. Either less $$/yr or with the last years unguaranteed.

Several other players seem way too high. McDourmott at $15M/yf? That's not 'ok even if he never develops into a starter' money, that's solid starter money and it's just tough to see his defense holding up enough to be that valuable. Smart at $20M/yr? That's money for a #3 guy (or so). Especially as a defense-first perimeter guy (who usually don't get the biggest $$) that's a lot. Gordon at $25M/yr?. Again really high.

IMO all 3 deals are what they might get next year if they have a strong 4th season but there's no reason to lock those deals in now.

Philly won't let Embiid get to RFA. He's the guy they chose to build around and he's getting a max offer, even with all the injuries.

And I don't think you are looking at the new reality. Timofey Mozgov got $16M annually and Luol Deng got $18M annually. You can say that was the Lakers being stupid, but a lot of deals like that were signed. And teams pay to keep their own guys.

Also, young players don't take discounts in their first big contract. They always get as much as they can, especially if they have shown they can play. And $15 million for McDermott is what it will take to retain good bench players, especially ones who can shoot, in the new world.

[Homerclease]

Do the Celtics really want to tie up $80M in Marcus Smart when they already have long term money invested in Horford and IT coming due for a pay hike? They are also heavily in every major free agent pitch in the summers.

They'll likely use their cap space this summer and be a capped out team for the next few years. And they love Smart. More than most know. He's going to get paid.

You think they re-up him this offseason rather than waiting a year Keith?

[Smitty731]

Hey all!

Wrote about extensions for the 2014 Draft Class. Really interesting class, especially with the injuries at the top of the class.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/245269/Previewing-The-2014-Draft-Class-Extension-Market

Let me know what you think.

Thanks!

Smitty

Wiggins will get a 5 year max because you can have two 5-year max guys in the new CBA. Because Minnesota's owner fought for that.

That is getting updated. Complete brain fart on my part.

[Smitty731]

Do the Celtics really want to tie up $80M in Marcus Smart when they already have long term money invested in Horford and IT coming due for a pay hike? They are also heavily in every major free agent pitch in the summers.

They'll likely use their cap space this summer and be a capped out team for the next few years. And they love Smart. More than most know. He's going to get paid.

You think they re-up him this offseason rather than waiting a year Keith?

I do. I don't think they want to let him get to RFA and be forced to match a deal. They'd rather get him at somewhat of a slight discount vs having some team forcing their hand. There will be teams with max space in the summer of 2018 and they'll play it the way Brooklyn did and throw big offers, up to max, at RFAs and see if they can get them.

Also, remember when the Celtics "overpaid" Avery Bradley? Smart is the new example of that and they love him now more than they loved Bradley back then.

[Homerclease]

They'll likely use their cap space this summer and be a capped out team for the next few years. And they love Smart. More than most know. He's going to get paid.

You think they re-up him this offseason rather than waiting a year Keith?

I do. I don't think they want to let him get to RFA and be forced to match a deal. They'd rather get him at somewhat of a slight discount vs having some team forcing their hand. There will be teams with max space in the summer of 2018 and they'll play it the way Brooklyn did and throw big offers, up to max, at RFAs and see if they can get them.

Also, remember when the Celtics "overpaid" Avery Bradley? Smart is the new example of that and they love him now more than they loved Bradley back then.

Amazing that 4/80 can be considered a discount these days lol. I'd say pre cap jump that Bradleys deal turned out to be right around market value in hindsight and with the cap jump it was a master stroke to get such a quality player on a bargain deal, same with Crowder. DA was ahead of the curve on both and proven right on both. I guess I can see it if they whiff in free agency this offseason but as a fan I feel they have to try to bring in outside talent first rather than burning up a year of Smart on cheap dollars. Even if they throw money at a JaMychal Green and Alan Williams and force both the Grizz and Suns to match first is a situation I'd prefer rather than prematurely paying Marcus

[Smitty731]

You think they re-up him this offseason rather than waiting a year Keith?

I do. I don't think they want to let him get to RFA and be forced to match a deal. They'd rather get him at somewhat of a slight discount vs having some team forcing their hand. There will be teams with max space in the summer of 2018 and they'll play it the way Brooklyn did and throw big offers, up to max, at RFAs and see if they can get them.

Also, remember when the Celtics "overpaid" Avery Bradley? Smart is the new example of that and they love him now more than they loved Bradley back then.

Amazing that 4/80 can be considered a discount these days lol. I'd say pre cap jump that Bradleys deal turned out to be right around market value in hindsight and with the cap jump it was a master stroke to get such a quality player on a bargain deal, same with Crowder. DA was ahead of the curve on both and proven right on both. I guess I can see it if they whiff in free agency this offseason but as a fan I feel they have to try to bring in outside talent first rather than burning up a year of Smart on cheap dollars. Even if they throw money at a JaMychal Green and Alan Williams and force both the Grizz and Suns to match first is a situation I'd prefer rather than prematurely paying Marcus

Smart's extension wouldn't kick in until the summer of 2018, so they wouldn't be using any sort of cap space this summer for it.

[Homerclease]

I do. I don't think they want to let him get to RFA and be forced to match a deal. They'd rather get him at somewhat of a slight discount vs having some team forcing their hand. There will be teams with max space in the summer of 2018 and they'll play it the way Brooklyn did and throw big offers, up to max, at RFAs and see if they can get them.

Also, remember when the Celtics "overpaid" Avery Bradley? Smart is the new example of that and they love him now more than they loved Bradley back then.

Amazing that 4/80 can be considered a discount these days lol. I'd say pre cap jump that Bradleys deal turned out to be right around market value in hindsight and with the cap jump it was a master stroke to get such a quality player on a bargain deal, same with Crowder. DA was ahead of the curve on both and proven right on both. I guess I can see it if they whiff in free agency this offseason but as a fan I feel they have to try to bring in outside talent first rather than burning up a year of Smart on cheap dollars. Even if they throw money at a JaMychal Green and Alan Williams and force both the Grizz and Suns to match first is a situation I'd prefer rather than prematurely paying Marcus

Smart's extension wouldn't kick in until the summer of 2018, so they wouldn't be using any sort of cap space this summer for it.

Oh well in that case there's no reason not to lock him up now. I don't see Smart regressing next year, only getting better.

[giberish]

I think you're on the high side with several predictions.

I can't see Philly giving Embiid a 5 year max off of 31 games. There's a huge downside there. The huge $$ in the 4th and 5th years there could be crushing as other guys leave their cheap rookie deal (if he can't play regularly). If he plays well next season they could offer him the same deal in a year but not this summer. If Embiid gets an extension this summer they'll be some discount off of a 25% max deal. Either less $$/yr or with the last years unguaranteed.

Several other players seem way too high. McDourmott at $15M/yf? That's not 'ok even if he never develops into a starter' money, that's solid starter money and it's just tough to see his defense holding up enough to be that valuable. Smart at $20M/yr? That's money for a #3 guy (or so). Especially as a defense-first perimeter guy (who usually don't get the biggest $$) that's a lot. Gordon at $25M/yr?. Again really high.

IMO all 3 deals are what they might get next year if they have a strong 4th season but there's no reason to lock those deals in now.

Philly won't let Embiid get to RFA. He's the guy they chose to build around and he's getting a max offer, even with all the injuries.

And I don't think you are looking at the new reality. Timofey Mozgov got $16M annually and Luol Deng got $18M annually. You can say that was the Lakers being stupid, but a lot of deals like that were signed. And teams pay to keep their own guys.

Also, young players don't take discounts in their first big contract. They always get as much as they can, especially if they have shown they can play. And $15 million for McDermott is what it will take to retain good bench players, especially ones who can shoot, in the new world.

The new, new reality is that the cap and tax lines look to be settling in at a higher, but relatively stable level. Last summer was an anomaly, but everybody having cap space and luxury tax lines so far away they can't be seen was really a one time occurrence.

If your top bench players get $15M/yr and your low-end starters are getting $20M/yr (presumably with a star or two making $30M+/yr) now you've got a $150M/yr or more payroll with a ~$125M/yr luxury tax line. If anything the wild spending last summer will drive down contracts a bit going forward by sucking money away that could be spent on other guys - it wasn't a new reality. The equivalent for Bradley's $8M/yr extension would be something like $13M/yr for Smart. The cap and tax lines aren't 250% higher then 4 years ago.

On the Embiid issue I just don't see the downside of him becoming an RFA. If you're willing to offer a max deal at that point you wont lose him. (I was also going to argue that by waiting until 2018 they could give a 5 year new contract and still have the 5-year extension for Simmons but apparently that's not a concern). It's possible Philly goes 5 year, fully guaranteed, 25% max extension this summer but IMO it's a bad idea with huge risk and little to no reward.

[Acountant_Z]

I think you're on the high side with several predictions.

I can't see Philly giving Embiid a 5 year max off of 31 games. There's a huge downside there. The huge $$ in the 4th and 5th years there could be crushing as other guys leave their cheap rookie deal (if he can't play regularly). If he plays well next season they could offer him the same deal in a year but not this summer. If Embiid gets an extension this summer they'll be some discount off of a 25% max deal. Either less $$/yr or with the last years unguaranteed.

Several other players seem way too high. McDourmott at $15M/yf? That's not 'ok even if he never develops into a starter' money, that's solid starter money and it's just tough to see his defense holding up enough to be that valuable. Smart at $20M/yr? That's money for a #3 guy (or so). Especially as a defense-first perimeter guy (who usually don't get the biggest $$) that's a lot. Gordon at $25M/yr?. Again really high.

IMO all 3 deals are what they might get next year if they have a strong 4th season but there's no reason to lock those deals in now.

Philly won't let Embiid get to RFA. He's the guy they chose to build around and he's getting a max offer, even with all the injuries.

And I don't think you are looking at the new reality. Timofey Mozgov got $16M annually and Luol Deng got $18M annually. You can say that was the Lakers being stupid, but a lot of deals like that were signed. And teams pay to keep their own guys.

Also, young players don't take discounts in their first big contract. They always get as much as they can, especially if they have shown they can play. And $15 million for McDermott is what it will take to retain good bench players, especially ones who can shoot, in the new world.

The new, new reality is that the cap and tax lines look to be settling in at a higher, but relatively stable level. Last summer was an anomaly, but everybody having cap space and luxury tax lines so far away they can't be seen was really a one time occurrence.

If your top bench players get $15M/yr and your low-end starters are getting $20M/yr (presumably with a star or two making $30M+/yr) now you've got a $150M/yr or more payroll with a ~$125M/yr luxury tax line. If anything the wild spending last summer will drive down contracts a bit going forward by sucking money away that could be spent on other guys - it wasn't a new reality. The equivalent for Bradley's $8M/yr extension would be something like $13M/yr for Smart. The cap and tax lines aren't 250% higher then 4 years ago.

On the Embiid issue I just don't see the downside of him becoming an RFA. If you're willing to offer a max deal at that point you wont lose him. (I was also going to argue that by waiting until 2018 they could give a 5 year new contract and still have the 5-year extension for Simmons but apparently that's not a concern). It's possible Philly goes 5 year, fully guaranteed, 25% max extension this summer but IMO it's a bad idea with huge risk and little to no reward.

Absolutely right on Embiid, no sense in offering early deal for max. You offer early to get discount, otherwise just wait for RFA.
I think most deals will be back to reality after last summer's drunken spending.