The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest

Moderators: Andre Roberstan, HartfordWhalers, BullyKing, Texas Chuck, MoneyTalks41890, Mamba4Goat, pacers33granger, Trader_Joe, loserX

User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#41 » by caliban » Wed Jul 5, 2017 8:05 pm

SuperDario wrote:
caliban wrote:.


Just curious- it seems like the green in the OP spreadsheet indicates a correct guess. Is there any reason my 12.5 for Tony Snell did not count? I added a lot of .5's shortly after my initial post, so I'm not sure if that was taken into consideration or not.

Either way, thanks for all the work you've put into this!

Good question.

Green = "Max" for the entries that had that written instead of a number. Just a personal reminder to look up what that exact number is. Example, Wiretap says Hayward's average salary is 32 but when if I look it up the max is really 31,925,000. In short it's just a reminder to myself.

Will have a full sheet.png for review in the end. It just takes too much page space.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
GeorgeMarcus
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 17,938
And1: 23,049
Joined: Jun 17, 2006
     

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#42 » by GeorgeMarcus » Wed Jul 5, 2017 8:25 pm

caliban wrote:
SuperDario wrote:
caliban wrote:.


Just curious- it seems like the green in the OP spreadsheet indicates a correct guess. Is there any reason my 12.5 for Tony Snell did not count? I added a lot of .5's shortly after my initial post, so I'm not sure if that was taken into consideration or not.

Either way, thanks for all the work you've put into this!

Good question.

Green = "Max" for the entries that had that written instead of a number. Just a personal reminder to look up what that exact number is. Example, Wiretap says Hayward's average salary is 32 but when if I look it up the max is really 31,925,000. In short it's just a reminder to myself.

Will have a full sheet.png for review in the end. It just takes too much page space.


Ah, now I see. Thanks for clarifying!
The Legend of George Marcus

"Where I'm from, bullies get bullied." - Zach Randolph
HartfordWhalers
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 47,004
And1: 20,542
Joined: Apr 07, 2010
 

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#43 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed Jul 5, 2017 8:31 pm

caliban wrote:
SuperDario wrote:
caliban wrote:.


Just curious- it seems like the green in the OP spreadsheet indicates a correct guess. Is there any reason my 12.5 for Tony Snell did not count? I added a lot of .5's shortly after my initial post, so I'm not sure if that was taken into consideration or not.

Either way, thanks for all the work you've put into this!

Good question.

Green = "Max" for the entries that had that written instead of a number. Just a personal reminder to look up what that exact number is. Example, Wiretap says Hayward's average salary is 32 but when if I look it up the max is really 31,925,000. In short it's just a reminder to myself.

Will have a full sheet.png for review in the end. It just takes too much page space.


You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#44 » by caliban » Wed Jul 5, 2017 8:57 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...

:lol: , Yea I've had that under review actually but ruled against because of the possibility that it initially could have been intended as a banker (unsure of this english term), between say a BOS/UTA outcome.

The counter argument is but how do you know which max? Well I don't but I tied it to the suggested team and noted that #'s should have been stated as a requirement in the op.

(Did you notice that the Millsap and Lowry deals had a hidden 4th year with the same total amount? Very sneaky)
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
HartfordWhalers
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 47,004
And1: 20,542
Joined: Apr 07, 2010
 

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#45 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed Jul 5, 2017 9:00 pm

caliban wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...

:lol: , Yea I've had that under review actually but ruled against because of the possibility that it initially could have been intended as a banker (unsure of this english term), between say a BOS/UTA outcome.


Great argument. I'm sold.

caliban wrote:(Did you notice that the Millsap and Lowry deals had a hidden 4th year with the same total amount? Very sneaky)


Wait, what?
User avatar
Texas Chuck
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 85,804
And1: 88,818
Joined: May 19, 2012
Location: Purgatory
   

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#46 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Jul 5, 2017 9:02 pm

I'm 12 under par, so that's really good right?

Seriously jay and caliban killing it tho.
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#47 » by caliban » Wed Jul 5, 2017 9:10 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
caliban wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...

:lol: , Yea I've had that under review actually but ruled against because of the possibility that it initially could have been intended as a banker (unsure of this english term), between say a BOS/UTA outcome.


Great argument. I'm sold.

caliban wrote:(Did you notice that the Millsap and Lowry deals had a hidden 4th year with the same total amount? Very sneaky)


Wait, what?


I know, it was very hard to detect but Millsap for 22,5M (90/4) per and Lowry for 25(100/4) per just makes so much sense. Can't believe I'm the only one that have discovered this. NBA needs to get on top of this asap.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#48 » by caliban » Fri Jul 7, 2017 10:29 am

jayjaysee with the hot hand
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,590
And1: 50,209
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#49 » by bondom34 » Fri Jul 7, 2017 1:54 pm

Just a heads up but the chart in the OP has me at $30 for Teague and I called $20.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#50 » by caliban » Fri Jul 7, 2017 3:03 pm

bondom34 wrote:Just a heads up but the chart in the OP has me at $30 for Teague and I called $20.


Updated
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
HartfordWhalers
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 47,004
And1: 20,542
Joined: Apr 07, 2010
 

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#51 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Jul 8, 2017 5:43 am

caliban wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Just a heads up but the chart in the OP has me at $30 for Teague and I called $20.


Updated



So, I rechecked mine.

You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...


I did write Max for Hayward, not 33. I demand my point (not that it mattes). I also wrote max (25m) for Porter, which is a confusing comment.

And the chart shows Ibaka making 50m.

Also, I'm pretty sure Jay is from the future and thus cheating.
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#52 » by caliban » Sat Jul 8, 2017 10:21 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:
caliban wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Just a heads up but the chart in the OP has me at $30 for Teague and I called $20.


Updated



So, I rechecked mine.

You should round down the people who said 33m Boston for Hayward to the 32 max. No self interest at all here in the suggestion...


I did write Max for Hayward, not 33. I demand my point (not that it mattes). I also wrote max (25m) for Porter, which is a confusing comment.

And the chart shows Ibaka making 50m.

Also, I'm pretty sure Jay is from the future and thus cheating.


Thank you. I'm off grid atm. Will update ASAP.

Agreed, an obvious classic Back to the Future cheatcode in full effect.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
User avatar
Mich3006
Head Coach
Posts: 6,490
And1: 3,682
Joined: Jul 04, 2009
Location: Lower Bavaria, Germany
     

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#53 » by Mich3006 » Sat Jul 8, 2017 12:45 pm

I have Hayward with a max in Boston not Utah... updated my chart on June 29th
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#54 » by caliban » Sat Jul 8, 2017 9:05 pm

Ayatollah wrote:I have Hayward with a max in Boston not Utah... updated my chart on June 29th


Noted. Will update when I'm back home on Monday.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
HartfordWhalers
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 47,004
And1: 20,542
Joined: Apr 07, 2010
 

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#55 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Jul 8, 2017 10:55 pm

caliban wrote:
Ayatollah wrote:I have Hayward with a max in Boston not Utah... updated my chart on June 29th


Noted. Will update when I'm back home on Monday.


I blame CJ Miles and Plumlee for not signing quick enough. Because now you are in trouble where we are getting to the 100 actually meant 93 stage --

Read on Twitter
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#56 » by caliban » Sat Jul 8, 2017 11:07 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
caliban wrote:
Ayatollah wrote:I have Hayward with a max in Boston not Utah... updated my chart on June 29th


Noted. Will update when I'm back home on Monday.


I blame CJ Miles and Plumlee for not signing quick enough. Because now you are in trouble where we are getting to the 100 actually meant 93 stage --

Read on Twitter


Love it! I have the Olynyk one under review as well. All help with the corrections are much appreciated.
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner
HartfordWhalers
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - 76ers and NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 47,004
And1: 20,542
Joined: Apr 07, 2010
 

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#57 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Jul 8, 2017 11:10 pm

caliban wrote:All help with the corrections are much appreciated.

I was kind of feeling like a jerk piling on work, so good to know. But I'm always curious where these end up. Jrue's will be interesting, the range quoted was huge (126-150).

Tucker getting part of the 4th year gtd was a surprise as well.
Lakers24gm
Junior
Posts: 404
And1: 118
Joined: Jun 15, 2015
     

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#58 » by Lakers24gm » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:37 am

Hey I wasn't to far off on Dwayne Dedmon. I said ATL 5 Mil he ended up getting 7 mil from Hawks it looks like.
jayjaysee
King of the Trade Board
Posts: 16,599
And1: 5,490
Joined: Aug 05, 2012

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#59 » by jayjaysee » Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:33 am

By the time I noticed I was doing really well, teams stopped spending and I crashed. I'd have liked having that little superiority complex for a couple days

This is impressive though. Wel done and thanks caliban.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
User avatar
caliban
NBA TnT Forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 1,641
And1: 3,231
Joined: Jan 25, 2012
Location: Melonia
Contact:

Re: The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#60 » by caliban » Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:13 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
caliban wrote:All help with the corrections are much appreciated.

I was kind of feeling like a jerk piling on work, so good to know. But I'm always curious where these end up. Jrue's will be interesting, the range quoted was huge (126-150).

Tucker getting part of the 4th year gtd was a surprise as well.


It's all good. Is basketballinsiders the best source for salary info?

Lakers24gm wrote:Hey I wasn't to far off on Dwayne Dedmon. I said ATL 5 Mil he ended up getting 7 mil from Hawks it looks like.


Nice. Before FA I would have rolled my eyes at a suggestion below 9M.

jayjaysee wrote:By the time I noticed I was doing really well, teams stopped spending and I crashed. I'd have liked having that little superiority complex for a couple days

This is impressive though. Wel done and thanks caliban.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums


Well thank you for showing us how it's done! Image
20-21 apbrMetrics RMSE Team win projections winner. Three time RMSE runner up
RGM TnT board Team Win predictions winner

Return to Trades and Transactions