Charlotte - Chicago - Portland

[andalusian]

And no matter how you split it you're giving Frye for Crash. Which even if you don't like the term "nothing" it too little for too much.

See - this is a good argument - the Cats get too little for what they give, talent wise. I would agree with that assumption - and have no problems with it - but this is a very different argument than the formulatic Portland gives nothing for something - which is simply wrong.

Personally, I have no clue what the Cats want to do with Crash - with their coach, GM and absent President of BB operations.

There are clearly rumors that they want Crash out of there. How desperately they want it and what they want for it - I have no clue.

[andalusian]

Hinrich is an upgrade over blake, though not nearly as significant a one as many believe. portland will certainly miss Blake's perimter shooting.

No they won't. Kirk is just as good of a shooter as Blake is. 37.7% career 3P% for Kirk, and 38.4% for Blake.

To be honest - the only place where Blake's 3P shooting was used properly - was in Portland in both instances he played here. His 3P% in Portland is 40.9% (and he is currently shooting 42.6%)

I have no idea if Nate would be able to coax better shooting performance from Kirk or not.

Personally, I am not certain Portland knows what they need at PG yet - we have not seen Jarryd Bayless enough yet - on paper he looks like a much better fit in Portland than either Blake or the Captain.

[CellarDoor]

If they want him out desperately I'm quite certain someone will offer more than Channing Frye. Someone, don't remember who, did make a good point about the Larry Brown connection, but that's still too little for a guy like Crash imo. Also, Nocioni isn't a negative value player, but he's not THAT positive. Perhaps you would have better luck cutting him out of the deal and making it Hinrich for Raef, Sergio, protected 1st/2nd on Chicago's end and call it a day, then focus on making Charlotte happy.

[BigSlam]

The kicker for the Bobcats is that we'd get out of Carrolls long term contract.

I had another variation that included Nazr to the Bulls and Noah to the Bobcats which would be even better as it would shed pretty much all our long term deals.

[CellarDoor]

Nazr to the Bulls is an interesting Facet, but that revised edition as it stands is a no from me.

Also: i'm curious what you (andalusian) mean about Blake's 3p shooting not being used properly in all other places?

[BigSlam]

Also: i'm curious what you (andalusian) mean about Blake's 3p shooting not being used properly in all other places?

I haven't said that.

[andalusian]

Nazr to the Bulls is an interesting Facet, but that revised edition as it stands is a no from me.

Also: i'm curious what you (andalusian) mean about Blake's 3p shooting not being used properly in all other places?

I mean that Blake is a better at shooting the 3 when he catches it and shoots it. He had to create his 3P shots more in MIL, WAS and to a lesser degree DEN - and the results were not as effective. It is also an issue of the time he has to catch and shoot it - and Portland's slower pace seems to work better for him than the quicker pace he played in Denver. (The same was true for James Jones last year - he had a career year shooting the 3 in Portland and I am sure it helped him land his new contract with Miami).

Some players are good at creating their own 3P shot, some need to be open to be more effective with it - and Blake is definitely in this category - he really benefits from playing next to Roy.

Blake's 3P% in Portland - almost 41%
His 3P% elsewhere - 35%

James Jones last year in Portland - 44.4%
He has never had an over 40% year anywhere else.

[CellarDoor]

Damn near everywhere in the league a PG shouldn't be catching and shooting too often, so that's not really something you can assign to his value. When he comes to Chicago except for the times he's on the court concurrently with Derrick, he won't be catching or shooting. If it's a matter of catching and shooting almost every player will be better than doing so off the dribble.

[Village Idiot]

This has turned into an interesting thread with a lot of great commentary.

How about this synthesis of ideas?

Charlotte trades:

Gerald Wallace
6-7 SG / SF from Alabama
15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg in 38.2 minutes

Nazr Mohammed
6-10 C from Kentucky
2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.0 apg in 8.3 minutes

Alexis Ajinca
7-0 C from France (Foreign)
1.2 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.0 apg in 6.6 minutes

Matt Carroll
6-6 SG from Notre Dame
3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.6 apg in 14.7 minutes

Charlotte receives:

Drew Gooden
6-9 PF from Kansas
12.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.0 apg in 29.8 minutes

Andres Nocioni
6-7 SF from Argentina (Foreign)
9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg in 24.8 minutes

Channing Frye
6-11 PF from Arizona
5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg in 16.0 minutes


Chicago trades:

Drew Gooden
6-9 PF from Kansas
12.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.0 apg in 29.8 minutes

Andres Nocioni
6-7 SF from Argentina (Foreign)
9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg in 24.8 minutes

Kirk Hinrich
6-3 PG from Kansas
8.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 4.0 apg in 24.4 minutes

Chicago receives:

Nazr Mohammed
6-10 C from Kentucky
2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.0 apg in 8.3 minutes

Martell Webster
6-7 SF from Seattle Prep (HS)
No games yet played in 2008-2009

Steve Blake
6-3 PG from Maryland
11.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg in 29.1 minutes

Raef LaFrentz
6-11 PF / C from Kansas
No games yet played in 2008-2009


Portland trades:

Channing Frye
6-11 PF from Arizona
5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg in 16.0 minutes

Martell Webster
6-7 SF from Seattle Prep (HS)
No games yet played in 2008-2009

Steve Blake
6-3 PG from Maryland
11.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg in 29.1 minutes

Raef LaFrentz
6-11 PF / C from Kansas
No games yet played in 2008-2009


Portland receives:

Gerald Wallace
6-7 SG / SF from Alabama
15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg in 38.2 minutes

Kirk Hinrich
6-3 PG from Kansas
8.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 4.0 apg in 24.4 minutes

Alexis Ajinca
7-0 C from France (Foreign)
1.2 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.0 apg in 6.6 minutes

Matt Carroll
6-6 SG from Notre Dame
3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.6 apg in 14.7 minutes

[andalusian]

Damn near everywhere in the league a PG shouldn't be catching and shooting too often, so that's not really something you can assign to his value. When he comes to Chicago except for the times he's on the court concurrently with Derrick, he won't be catching or shooting. If it's a matter of catching and shooting almost every player will be better than doing so off the dribble.

You can on Portland - since the value Portland assigns to a PG is how well he plays with Roy - not how well he plays in general.

And ... again, this is selective reading - because Pace is also important - Blake is a great 3P shooter in a slow-pace catch and shoot situation, he was nowhere near as good in a fast-pace catch and shoot situation (example - his time in Denver).

I have said clearly that comparing Blake's career 3P% to Kirk's is not a really good example - since we know that Blake shoots the 3-ball much better in Portland's system - and it is hard for me to tell what Kirk's 3P% would be in this system - since he has such a big variance from year to year - but I should point out that the only times Kirk shot more than 40% from the 3P range was when Chicago's pace was faster (2006-7 and this year) - when Chicago plays at a pace factor of 93 or slower - he is a below 40% from the 3P range (closer to 36%). For the record - Portland plays at a much slower pace factor than 93.

The argument that Kirk is almost as good a 3P shooter as Blake might be right in general - but a lot less so when you consider Portland's pace, how well Blake shoots in this system and how Kirk shoots the 3P ball in slower pace systems.

[BigSlam]

Charlotte trades:

Gerald Wallace
6-7 SG / SF from Alabama
15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg in 38.2 minutes

Nazr Mohammed
6-10 C from Kentucky
2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.0 apg in 8.3 minutes

Alexis Ajinca
7-0 C from France (Foreign)
1.2 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.0 apg in 6.6 minutes

Matt Carroll
6-6 SG from Notre Dame
3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.6 apg in 14.7 minutes

Charlotte receives:

Drew Gooden
6-9 PF from Kansas
12.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.0 apg in 29.8 minutes

Andres Nocioni
6-7 SF from Argentina (Foreign)
9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg in 24.8 minutes

Channing Frye
6-11 PF from Arizona
5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg in 16.0 minutes

Terrible from a Bobcats POV.

1. We don't want to give up Alexis.
2. We don't want Nocioni
3. Gooden is a free agent at the end of the season. If he walks we are basically giving up a lot of usefull pieces for Frye and Nicinoi - which is not nearly enough. Even if Gooden was locked away, it still wouldn't be enough considering all you are expecting us to give up.

Easy pass for the Bobcats.

[CellarDoor]

Damn near everywhere in the league a PG shouldn't be catching and shooting too often, so that's not really something you can assign to his value. When he comes to Chicago except for the times he's on the court concurrently with Derrick, he won't be catching or shooting. If it's a matter of catching and shooting almost every player will be better than doing so off the dribble.

You can on Portland - since the value Portland assigns to a PG is how well he plays with Roy - not how well he plays in general.

And ... again, this is selective reading - because Pace is also important - Blake is a great 3P shooter in a slow-pace catch and shoot situation, he was nowhere near as good in a fast-pace catch and shoot situation (example - his time in Denver).

I have said clearly that comparing Blake's career 3P% to Kirk's is not a really good example - since we know that Blake shoots the 3-ball much better in Portland's system - and it is hard for me to tell what Kirk's 3P% would be in this system - since he has such a big variance from year to year - but I should point out that the only times Kirk shot more than 40% from the 3P range was when Chicago's pace was faster (2006-7 and this year) - when Chicago plays at a pace factor of 93 or slower - he is a below 40% from the 3P range (closer to 36%). For the record - Portland plays at a much slower pace factor than 93.

The argument that Kirk is almost as good a 3P shooter as Blake might be right in general - but a lot less so when you consider Portland's pace, how well Blake shoots in this system and how Kirk shoots the 3P ball in slower pace systems.

The argument is incomplete, not necessarily incorrect. Without Kirk being in that system there's really no way to tell. This year Kirk started next to Rose and got a lot of open looks and shot 42% from 3p. (Incredibly small sample size, thus why it's incomplete). It's not a very big leap to assume a good 3pt shooter will be better when he can set his body.

[CellarDoor]

This has turned into an interesting thread with a lot of great commentary.

How about this synthesis of ideas?

Charlotte trades:

Gerald Wallace
6-7 SG / SF from Alabama
15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg in 38.2 minutes

Nazr Mohammed
6-10 C from Kentucky
2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.0 apg in 8.3 minutes

Alexis Ajinca
7-0 C from France (Foreign)
1.2 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.0 apg in 6.6 minutes

Matt Carroll
6-6 SG from Notre Dame
3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.6 apg in 14.7 minutes

Charlotte receives:

Drew Gooden
6-9 PF from Kansas
12.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.0 apg in 29.8 minutes

Andres Nocioni
6-7 SF from Argentina (Foreign)
9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg in 24.8 minutes

Channing Frye
6-11 PF from Arizona
5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg in 16.0 minutes


Chicago trades:

Drew Gooden
6-9 PF from Kansas
12.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.0 apg in 29.8 minutes

Andres Nocioni
6-7 SF from Argentina (Foreign)
9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg in 24.8 minutes

Kirk Hinrich
6-3 PG from Kansas
8.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 4.0 apg in 24.4 minutes

Chicago receives:

Nazr Mohammed
6-10 C from Kentucky
2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.0 apg in 8.3 minutes

Martell Webster
6-7 SF from Seattle Prep (HS)
No games yet played in 2008-2009

Steve Blake
6-3 PG from Maryland
11.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg in 29.1 minutes

Raef LaFrentz
6-11 PF / C from Kansas
No games yet played in 2008-2009


Portland trades:

Channing Frye
6-11 PF from Arizona
5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg in 16.0 minutes

Martell Webster
6-7 SF from Seattle Prep (HS)
No games yet played in 2008-2009

Steve Blake
6-3 PG from Maryland
11.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg in 29.1 minutes

Raef LaFrentz
6-11 PF / C from Kansas
No games yet played in 2008-2009


Portland receives:

Gerald Wallace
6-7 SG / SF from Alabama
15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.9 apg in 38.2 minutes

Kirk Hinrich
6-3 PG from Kansas
8.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 4.0 apg in 24.4 minutes

Alexis Ajinca
7-0 C from France (Foreign)
1.2 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.0 apg in 6.6 minutes

Matt Carroll
6-6 SG from Notre Dame
3.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.6 apg in 14.7 minutes

For starters you're not getting Ajinca most likely, so we can take him out. I'm torn on it for the bulls. Eyeballing it it almost looks too good for us, but then I try to break it down piece by piece and I feel like it's not a "win" (certainly not a loss).

For Charlotte they're not taking on much more salary than they're sending out, so that might work for them, but Ajinca definitely needs to be removed.

[andalusian]

The argument is incomplete, not necessarily incorrect. Without Kirk being in that system there's really no way to tell. This year Kirk started next to Rose and got a lot of open looks and shot 42% from 3p. (Incredibly small sample size, thus why it's incomplete). It's not a very big leap to assume a good 3pt shooter will be better when he can set his body.

I agree. It is incomplete - that's why I said I can't really tell.

The only thing I can tell - is that Kirk's 3P% is better when the pace is faster - which is not going to happen in Portland. So - the question is - does Kirk excel shooting the 3P when the pace is fast or when he is in a catch and shoot situation. We have seen that in the same system - where he is the PG with the ball in his hands - he works well from the 3P% when the pace is fast. We know he shoots well from the 3P range as a catch and shoot player next to Rose - again in a fast pace game. We know he does not shoot the ball well in a slower pace with the ball in his hand and him originating the offense - but I suspect that even in this system he did not get all his 3P shots by himself and did get some when someone else penetrated and dished out to him. The results are not encouraging given the partial data we have.

The answer is - I do not know - but from the data we do have - there is no conclusive evidence that the Blazers will not lose a lot of shooting with Kirk vs. Blake, nor is there any conclusive evidence that Kirk will work just as well in their offensive system as Blake.

If I were the Blazers - I would not rush a Blake for Kirk trade until they get to see him play a bit after he comes back from injury (is that going to happen before the trade deadline?) - especially when Bayless is such an unknown.

From the very little we have seen of Bayless so far - he is a huge defensive upgrade over Blake (or Sergio) and he will give the Blazer a second player that can attack the rim from the dribble (something they clearly lack at the moment). He can clearly shoot the ball as well - but he is nowhere as good creating for others and playing well as a complementary player - I still think that he has all the tools and the talent to be Portland's PG of the future next to Roy - so blowing the cap-space for a questionable upgrade (definite yes on defense, unclear on offense) by doing the Blake for Kirk is something I would not rush into.

[Wizenheimer]

Hinrich is an upgrade over blake, though not nearly as significant a one as many believe. portland will certainly miss Blake's perimter shooting.

No they won't. Kirk is just as good of a shooter as Blake is. 37.7% career 3P% for Kirk, and 38.4% for Blake.

career %'s aren't very indicative of what Blake is shooting as a blazer. In 05/06 he shot .413. Last year he shot .408. And this season he's shooting .426. It's a fairly safe bet he'll remain a +.400 3pt shooter for portland. He also has a habit of hitting his baskets at critical times in games. I have a lot less confidence in Hinrich, especially considering the difficulty of adjusting to a new team and city.

I've said before that hinrich is an upgrade over blake and I'd agree to a lot of the trades having him come to portland. I'm more pro-hinrich then most portland fans. But I don't think he's that significant an upgrade that portland can ignore that blake and hinrich have similar skillsets, and that Blake's salary is 60% of hinrich's next year, or that hinrich's contract is 4 times as large.

[BR0D1E86]

Assuming the Bulls are interested in nothing more than dumping salaries for cap space, which they almost certainly are not, these trades are generally ok for the Bulls.

I’m still holding out a very slim hope that they can figure something out to combine several pieces into one good frontcourt player (such as the mythical Kaman trades floating around lately), but barring that it’s fine.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Portland just drilled Chicago this year in Portland. I think that skews Portland fans' vision of the Bulls.

Other than at Portland and at Boston, Chicago has played reasonable well against the hardest schedule in the NBA.

I thought Portland had the most difficult schedule of any team in the NBA so far this season?!?!?!?!

[Ricepilar]

I dont see this trade happening for a variety of reasons.

1) Charlotte isnt getting enough for Wallace. I like Nocioni as a 6th man (or as a starter amongst VERY good players) and Frye is fine if he's your 2nd big man off the bench. That's not nearly good enough return for arguably their best player. This is at best a lateral move that doesnt get them cap space or make them younger.

2) I don't think Portland would make a deal for Hinrich right now. He's coming off a terrible season and he's been injured all of this season. I don't think they'd give up all their cap space for a guy with that many question marks, especially since they're trading away a reliable and affordable guard in Blake.

3) I'm not sold that this is the right direction for Chicago. I think that they've been bad this year -- much worse than their record shows. Derrick Rose is fantastic and he's winning games for them. When he doesnt play well, they get killed. They really look like a team that doesnt know what theyre doing STILL. No one else has really been reliable. Hinrich has been hurt, so its tough to put the blame on him. Nocioni has been ok. He's picked up a lot of the slack for Deng, who's been awful.

I think the guy that needs to go is Tyrus Thomas. I dont think he can play with Noah and I prefer Noah's size and Bball IQ. They should dangle Thomas to teams that really need to get young (PHX, SA) and teams that just need some athleticism at the PF spot (MEM, CLE, ORL, DET, WAS). If they can get a 1st round pick and/or a good young guard, it might make some sense. I'd also try to trade Ben Gordon anywhere.

[Wizenheimer]

Portland just drilled Chicago this year in Portland. I think that skews Portland fans' vision of the Bulls.

Other than at Portland and at Boston, Chicago has played reasonable well against the hardest schedule in the NBA.

I thought Portland had the most difficult schedule of any team in the NBA so far this season?!?!?!?!

chicago fans making the claim of toughest schedule are basing it upon stats that don't account for road/home games, but just the winning % of opponents. The Bulls have played a tough schedule, but so has portland and the difference is actually pretty small.

[BR0D1E86]

Portland just drilled Chicago this year in Portland. I think that skews Portland fans' vision of the Bulls.

Other than at Portland and at Boston, Chicago has played reasonable well against the hardest schedule in the NBA.

I thought Portland had the most difficult schedule of any team in the NBA so far this season?!?!?!?!

chicago fans making the claim of toughest schedule are basing it upon stats that don't account for road/home games, but just the winning % of opponents. The Bulls have played a tough schedule, but so has portland and the difference is actually pretty small.

Fair enough, but regardless it's been extremely difficult.

FWIW, Chicago has played 7 home & 9 road games and Portland has played 6 home & 10 road games.