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ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38)

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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#61 » by Scarface844 » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:04 am

MuggsyBogues wrote:It's an interesting way to phrase it, "even if you take into account 3 point shooting," that sounds as if that's the wrong thing to do it just because our guy doesn't shoot 3s. Of course you take into account 3s. And you take into account free throws too. All of it matters.

Wade was much better in the 2pt area, Lowry was a much better 3pt shooter and he made more free throws. Ultimately, Wade's TS% was at .588%, Lowry's at .567. Wade was more efficient, but the gap was not huge. That's what should matter, in my view. It's the full picture. Not just 2 point shooting.

Wade was a better scorer, Lowry was a better distributor and defender. But there's no reason to put 2 point scoring on a shrine above everything else just because our guy does it.

Also, Lowry wasn't featured more than Wade. Wade got lots of time as the main guy without LeBron. Wade's usage rate was at 28%, Lowry's at 23%. That shouldn't be a knock on anyone though. Playing a big role isn't easy.

Ultimately, all this per minute or per game stuff doesn't matter all that much when one guy gave his team 2862 minutes, and the other guy 1775. One guy had 11.7 win shares for the season, and the other 5.5. One guy helped his team much more than the other last year. So I think it's obvious who was better last year.

I'm not going to predict who will be better this year, I have too many question marks about both of them. But as far as last year, I think it's pretty clear.


As a Raptor fan, i'm glad you realize how important Lowry was for us. D Wade is one of my fav players but their is a good reason why Zach Lowe and other prominent advanced stat figures in the NBA said Lowry would be the 2nd most impactful FA after Lebron.

I don't have the link right now but I posted it on the Raptor board. Lowry is worth 22 wins over the next 2 seasons alone for us. No question Lowry was better then D Wade last year. He really is the engine of our team, plays excellent defense and does things that don't show up on the stat sheet.

There was one possession in the playoffs where, Lowry was switched on to JJ and while JJ is much bigger and stronger then JJ, Lowry positioned himself perfectly while JJ was posting him up, which allowed Lowry to force a TO. Excellent IQ, great player, really underrated.

As far as the contract year and injury stuff, don't buy into that stuff. Lowry has been fairly durable besides his injury a few years ago. He always has minor injury but hasn't had anything major since his ACL tear in college. The contract year stuff?

https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=ch ... +star+snub

The 2nd link on the page. It's removed now but Lowry was considered a all star snub back in 2012 (in the west) as well. He's always been a really good player but much like his mentor Chauncey Billups, hes had some issues and has taken some time to find a place where he fits perfectly.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#62 » by antistrat » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:49 am

Scarface844 wrote:No question Lowry was better then D Wade last year.


Nah, I think Wade was better. He's more efficient and smarter than Lowry. Plus, he's just more experienced and that helps - he's seen everything - he likely knows things that Lowry hasn't even heard of yet. That happens when you've been to 5 Finals and have spent years and years learning under Pat Riley.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#63 » by Scarface844 » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:50 am

antistrat wrote:
Scarface844 wrote:No question Lowry was better then D Wade last year.


Nah, I think Wade was better. He's more efficient and smarter than Lowry. Plus, he's just more experienced and that helps - he's seen everything - he likely knows things that Lowry hasn't even heard of yet. That happens when you've been to 5 Finals.


Better overall? Of course, i dont know anyone who'd disagree with that. Better last year? Highly doubt it.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#64 » by antistrat » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:52 am

Scarface844 wrote:
antistrat wrote:
Scarface844 wrote:No question Lowry was better then D Wade last year.


Nah, I think Wade was better. He's more efficient and smarter than Lowry. Plus, he's just more experienced and that helps - he's seen everything - he likely knows things that Lowry hasn't even heard of yet. That happens when you've been to 5 Finals.


Better overall? Of course, i dont know anyone who'd disagree with that. Better last year? Highly doubt it.


I mean last year, of course. Wade did a lot of special things last year - especially for a shooting guard over 30, but really for a shooting guard of any age. His shooting efficiency was pretty special.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#65 » by Scarface844 » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:55 am

antistrat wrote:I mean last year, of course. Wade did a lot of special things last year - especially for a shooting guard over 30, but really for a shooting guard of any age. His shooting efficiency was pretty special.


My argument against that is all the games he missed. Its easier to have a high shooting % when your playing only 60-70% of the regular season games while being rested compared to the competition.

Not discredting Wade at all, I think he'll have a come back season next year but FG % like other stats can get overrated. Lowry's impact last year on both ends was much more then Wade despite having "inferior stats"
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#66 » by antistrat » Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:00 am

Scarface844 wrote:
antistrat wrote:I mean last year, of course. Wade did a lot of special things last year - especially for a shooting guard over 30, but really for a shooting guard of any age. His shooting efficiency was pretty special.


My argument against that is all the games he missed. Its easier to have a high shooting % when your playing only 60-70% of the regular season games while being rested compared to the competition.

Not discredting Wade at all, I think he'll have a come back season next year but FG % like other stats can get overrated. Lowry's impact last year on both ends was much more then Wade despite having "inferior stats"


Yeah, credit to Lowry for playing more games. But I don't care who you are or how many games you miss, it's still very hard to shoot .545 percent. Hell, it's hard for centers to shoot that percentage, let alone a guard. You're not going to do that just because you sit out some games - it takes more than that.

Lowry played more games so he impacted more games. But Wade was the better individual player.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#67 » by HIF » Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:54 am

So when Miami's rebounding "figures" improve this year that will mean that Lebron was a bad rebounder!!!

Some of you read stats more than you watch players.

Terrible rebounding = 2 championships
I remember when the Dolphins were perennial contenders

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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#68 » by MarvinGaye1983 » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:50 am

ESPN may have overrated us here.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#69 » by dr3am » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:18 am

what was the point of bumping this thread tho???
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#70 » by DefenseWins » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:26 am

dr3am wrote:what was the point of bumping this thread tho???



so we can look like idiots
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#71 » by Bourne85 » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:28 am

Lol atleast I said 6th seed. But even that was wrong.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#72 » by denny33142 » Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:10 am

The point is that the Heat are underachieving, Everyone had us as a 40+ win 3-5th seed in the east team and most of us were actually criticizing those numbers by saying it was too low, Now we are lucky if we even finish close to 500.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#73 » by dancing2thabeet » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:15 pm

Spobot: "Beep, bop, zorp."
orphicwhip wrote:
goodboy wrote:Man I got the flu, still will watch my team play though.

McBob shares the same mentality.
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Re: ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 6 in East: Miami Heat (44-38) 

Post#74 » by gom » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:14 pm

Honestly, I never thought ESPN was optimistic in this projection. 44 wins now sounds huge.
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