NBA Free Agency 2015: The Official Thread

[JLop]

NBA Projects Salary Cap To Reach $108M For 17-18 Season





The NBA has sent a new set of salary cap projections to all 30 teams.

For the 2015-16 season, the cap is projected at $67.1 million with the tax at $81.6 million.

For the 2016-17 season, the cap is projected at $89 million with the tax at $108 million.

For the 2017-18 season, the cap is projected to reach $108 million with the tax at $127 million.

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Projecting 2015 and 2016 Max-Salary Tiers


The maximum salary a team can pay a specific player in free agency is based on their years of service in the NBA.

With the current salary cap of $63.1 million, the league has three maximum tiers. For players with up to six years’ experience, they can earn up to $14.7 million in the first year of a new contract; seven to nine max at $17.7 million; 10-years or more allows for up to $20.6 million.

The NBA projects the salary cap will climb to $67.4 million for the 2015-16 season, bumping the max numbers to approximately $15.8 million, $18.9 million and $22.1 million.

The league also has a new national television deal kicking in for the 2016-17 season, which is now projected to raise the salary cap to $90 million, along with maximum salaries to roughly $21.0 million, $25.3 million and $29.5 million.

Players, and certainly their agents, are well aware of the expected jump, which could have a significant impact on contracts this summer. Many may choose to sign a “one-and-one” deal, a two-year contract with a player opt-out before the second — allowing them in turn to take home a more lucrative, long-term deal in 2016.

The NBA and players may also opt out of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in 2017, leading to a new set of rules (eventually) that will likely impact salary structure — making the timing of the 2016 goldmine even more vital for players.

The following is a list of many of the top free agents over the next couple of years, and where they land among the maximum-salary tiers:

2015-16 Bottom Tier (~$15.8 Million)

Kawhi Leonard (restricted free agent), Danny Green – San Antonio Spurs

Greg Monroe, Reggie Jackson (RFA) – Detroit Pistons

Jimmy Butler (RFA) – Chicago Bulls

Draymond Green (RFA) – Golden State Warriors

Enes Kanter (RFA) – Oklahoma City Thunder

Tobias Harris (RFA) – Orlando Magic

Brandon Knight (RFA) – Phoenix Suns

Wesley Matthews – Portland Trail Blazers

Omer Asik – New Orleans Pelicans

2015-16 Middle Tier (~$18.9 Million)

Kevin Love (player option) – Cleveland Cavaliers

Marc Gasol, Jeff Green (PO) – Memphis Grizzlies

LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo (PO) – Portland Trail Blazers

DeAndre Jordan – Los Angeles Clippers

Goran Dragic (PO) – Miami HEAT

Roy Hibbert – Indiana Pacers (PO)

Rajon Rondo – Dallas Mavericks

Paul Millsap – Atlanta Hawks

2015-16 Top Tier (~$22.1 Million)

LeBron James (PO) – Cleveland Cavaliers

Dwyane Wade (PO), Luol Deng (PO) – Miami HEAT

Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili – San Antonio Spurs

Monta Ellis (PO), Tyson Chandler – Dallas Mavericks

Al Jefferson (PO) – Charlotte Hornets

Amir Johnson – Toronto Raptors

2016-17 Bottom Tier (~$21.0 Million)

Anthony Davis (RFA) – New Orleans Pelicans

Damian Lillard (RFA) – Portland Trail Blazers

Andre Drummond (RFA) – Detroit Pistons

Hassan Whiteside – Miami HEAT

Bradley Beal (RFA) – Washington Wizards

Harrison Barnes (RFA) – Golden State Warriors

Jonas Valanciunas (RFA) – Toronto Raptors

2016-17 Middle Tier (~$25.3 Million)

Kevin Durant – Oklahoma City Thunder

Joakim Noah – Chicago Bulls

Al Horford – Atlanta Hawks

Mike Conley – Memphis Grizzlies

DeMar DeRozan (PO) – Toronto Raptors

Danilo Gallinari – Denver Nuggets

Ryan Anderson – New Orleans Pelicans

Brandon Jennings – Detroit Pistons

Nicolas Batum – Portland Trail Blazers

2016-17 Top Tier (~$29.5 Million)

Kobe Bryant – Los Angeles Lakers

Dwight Howard (PO) – Houston Rockets

Pau Gasol (PO) – Chicago Bulls

Nene – Washington Wizards

Joe Johnson, Deron Williams (early termination option) – Brooklyn Nets

Patient Tier Jumpers?

A one-year deal (or one-and-one) for players like Aldridge, Millsap or Rondo this summer will make either eligible for a jump to the top tier in 2016.

The same can be said of Danny Green and Matthews, although neither are likely to get max offers.

Brook Lopez and Love can both wait a year to take advantage of the higher cap, but will stay middle-tier max players for either summer.

Note that if a player is finishing a contract above the league maximum, they can sign a new contract with a five percent bump in pay, even if it’s over the next season’s max.

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I hope you all have enjoyed this article as much as I did. And please, remember to visit the author's site.

The vast majority in this forum knows that the NBA salary cap could rise to $89 million or $90 million in 2016. Nevertheless, $108 million in 2017 is just insane. It would give teams a chance to add players without going into the luxury tax. What could this mean for the Miami Heat?

[RexBoyWonder]

It was expected and it's good new for us because we're a prime target for free agents due to the City, franchise history, management and current players.
The higher the cap goes the more possibilities we'll have to add players, and being a desired destination it works in our favor.

[Magic Boo]

There are tons of great PGs in 17' but we should have Dragic so theres not much to be exited about.

We should sign some good role players like Iggy/Parsons, Redick, Mike Scott etc.

Dragic/Patty Mills
Wade/Redick
Parsons/Iggy/Beas
Bosh/McBob/Scott
Hassan/Dwight Howard :p

[Heat_Fan_87]

cool

guys like nick young gonna get 20mil a year lol

[KingDavid]

Wouldn't this hurt small market teams? Gotta pick up the value of contracts....

[DefenseWins]

Real good for us moving forward

[HEAT111]

We will be back into the Finals in no time by the next couple of years then.

[RJM]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD eventually retires (he's 34 now; he'll be 36 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

[ReturnofMVP3]

nice.

[DayofMourning]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD eventually retires (he's 34 now; he'll be 36 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

Just add Durant, and it's over.

[shanedude]

This sounds too good to be true. Small market teams are gonna get hosed

[IggieCC]

Hopefully KD will be fully recovered by 2016. The guy is practically out for the year with the foot injury.

Otherwise we'll need to look elsewhere. We should look into finding a really good backup SG actually.

[KingDavid]

This sounds too good to be true. Small market teams are gonna get hosed

That's what I'm saying. $92 million, yeah that's a big bump but it's doable.

$105 million cap with no adjustments?! No fkn way, there's going to be stricter cap penalties and the MLE is going to practically double. Vet min might end up at $5 million or some crazy value like that. Rookie contracts might spike too. Might even need to be on all-NBA teams to get a bigger cut of money, etc. I just don't see how they just allow the cap to spike to $107 million. That's a whole lot of money...A lot of players are going to get some high numbers. Boston, Miami, and all teams in California and New York would destroy the league without cap rule adjustments.

[DayofMourning]

Hopefully KD will be fully recovered by 2016. The guy is practically out for the year with the foot injury.

Otherwise we'll need to look elsewhere. We should look into finding a really good backup SG actually.

Backup SG and backup center.

I think Durant will be fine. His ability to stretch the floor would be insane for this team, and much needed.

[EscapoTHB]

This sounds too good to be true. Small market teams are gonna get hosed

That's what I'm saying. $92 million, yeah that's a big bump but it's doable.

$105 million cap with no adjustments?! No fkn way, there's going to be stricter cap penalties and the MLE is going to practically double. Vet min might end up at $5 million or some crazy value like that. Rookie contracts might spike too. Might even need to be on all-NBA teams to get a bigger cut of money, etc. I just don't see how they just allow the cap to spike to $107 million. That's a whole lot of money...A lot of players are going to get some high numbers. Boston, Miami, and all teams in California and New York would destroy the league without cap rule adjustments.

The nba can afford it.

[RJM]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD/Birdman eventually retires (he's 34/36 now; he'll be 36/38 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

Just add Durant, and it's over.

Scary how things fall into place, right? I won't feed the trolls with that speculation, but Miami could legitimately draft a young big man project and then balance Whiteside with a veteran inside presence like Nene or Chris Kaman.

[DayofMourning]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD/Birdman eventually retires (he's 34/36 now; he'll be 36/38 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

Just add Durant, and it's over.

Scary how things fall into place, right? I won't feed the trolls with that speculation, but Miami could legitimately draft a young big man project and then balance Whiteside with a veteran inside presence like Nene or Chris Kaman.

I like Dakari Johnson from UK as a project bench big man. He may not make it to our pick this year though. Upshaw is a possibility as well, but his attitude might need more work then we'll be willing to afford.

If not draft picks, then I'd love to have Jordan Hill here as a bench big.

As far as reserve SGs go, I wonder how well Zoran will pan out. We need outside shooting badly, and that isn't his forte, but if he can play then we've got minutes for him. We definitely need Wade insurance though.

[Seabass777]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD eventually retires (he's 34 now; he'll be 36 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

We all know that Pat Riley loves going after the big fish,he's gonna make a hard push for Kevin Durant,at first I thought we had no choice,but anything can happen.

The core of Dragic Wade Bosh and Whiteside,is very nice.

I hooe that by that time Shabazz improves so he can take Rio's spot as back up PG,and hey know maybe Micheal Beasley might be doing some recruitng lol.

[Seabass777]

With Chris Bosh and Shabazz Napier under contract through that season, Miami could easily sign extend Whiteside for a while, Wade one last time, bring back Deng, retain Dragic, and bring back the likes of Chalmers, Beasley, Johnson, Walker, and Ennis before even considering adding two star players. Look at what Miami has on its roster at about $56 million. Each of these players could receive modest pay raises and Miami would still have enough for two more players.

Let's assume the lineup looks like this:

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF:
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Hassan Whiteside

PG: Shabazz Napier - Tyler Johnson
SG: Mario Chalmers - James Ennis*
SF: Luol Deng - Henry Walker*
PF: Josh McRoberts - Michael Beasley
C:

Assuming UD eventually retires (he's 34 now; he'll be 36 then and likely even more eroded, skill-wise) and Riley stays loyal to some of his guys, above is what Miami's roster will look like during the 2016 offseason before free agency begins. Those with asterisks above their names are potential cuts between now and then. I think there's a solid chance Beasley will grow into a player that will spend the rest of his days here in Miami this time around.

Miami will have between $45-50 million (extra) to bring in star talent and needed frontcourt assistance. As mentioned above, Miami's championship culture, stable organization, [state] income tax-free location, weather, and cap space will be very alluring to potential free agents. Miami will be a serious contender in no time due to this one-time salary cap advantage. Eventually, the market will stabilize and contracts will scale to appropriate proportions.

Until then, Riley will totally cash in on this situation and not only surround Wade with one last serious championship contender, but establish this franchise with a stable foundation for years to come. This is going to be insane, people. Miami, New York, and Los Angeles are primed to seriously benefit from this cap increase, but Miami has a decided advantage the others don't: Some semblance of a core to build around (Dragic, Whiteside, Wade, Bosh, role players).

We all know that Pat Riley loves going after the big fish,he's gonna make a hard push for Kevin Durant,at first I thought we had no choice,but anything can happen.

The core of Dragic Wade Bosh and Whiteside,is very nice.

I hooe that by that time Shabazz improves so he can take Rio's spot as back up PG,and hey who knows maybe Micheal Beasley might be doing some recruitng lol.

[DayofMourning]

I hooe that by that time Shabazz improves so he can take Rio's spot as back up PG,and hey know maybe Micheal Beasley might be doing some recruitng lol.

I had forgotten about Beas and KD being good friends. There it is. Durant to the Heat for sure;)