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Trade Speculation (Goran ain't going, going nowhere, he can't be shopped, because he's Heat boy for life)

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Trade Speculation (Goran ain't going, going nowhere, he can't be shopped, because he's Heat boy for life) 

Post#1 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:34 pm

Because this came up in the Rod McGruder thread, I'm initiating a new attempt at strategy discussion for the season.

Bishop45 wrote:
gom wrote:Despite all indications, I think we're not going to go this route. We are getting really close to Dec 15. Why preempt things by complicating? Look for a trade instead. I don't see a generic trade speculation thread and I don't want to contribute to the stupid Dragic for Gay thread. We really should have one about strategic speculation, right? A central place where we can do something besides rant... Question: If we did do this and one of the players (Reed most likely) returns from injury, *which* player do we release? We can't release Bosh for obvious reasons until at least Feb 9 without kissing cap relief goodbye.


You should start a trade/speculation thread , it will devolve into a stupid Dragic-Gay thread but at least it could be generic


What the Heat want:

1. Cap relief
2. New assets
3. A second draft pick.

What the Heat have to trade:

Realistically, all the assets that we care so much about (including the draft pick) are on the table. I know it's hard to accept, but for the right deal, Pat will do anything.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#2 » by Bishop45 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:35 pm

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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#3 » by Mos_Heat » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:42 pm

I'm in

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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#4 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:42 pm

Let's talk about the trade of Dragic for a potential lottery pick. The problem is that trading Dragic can take a team that is missing a good point guard or has an injured point guard and take it out of the lottery. Drafting #12 in this draft can net you a PF like Hartenstein. Drafting #20 maybe someone like Grayson Allen. It's a good draft.

I have read in some story that (because we suck so badly) we had a 2nd round pick in 2017. That's simply not true:

31-40 goes to Memphis (to complete the dump last year), 41-60 to Atlanta (for James Ennis) in 2017
31-40 goes to Atlanta (for James Ennis), 41-60 to Memphis (same) in 2018

We already have a draft speculation thread for our pick (which looks good and I'll be adding to that too soon). I think we really should look at getting a 2nd in this draft though as well.

So which teams can we target:

Lakers pick (PHI has it): Problem PHI isn't contending, but the Lakers pick isn't the gold it used to be.

New York pick: If Derrick Rose gets injured (that never happens), then we can pay him while they get Dragic. Dragic/Melo/Porz is actually a decent 3. I think New York is a postseason team by the end of the year, so we'd pick in the high teens low 20s.

Dallas pick: This would be gold now. Dragic may not get them into the playoffs, so it would be a lottery pick. I know that Cuban doesn't want to tank, but he's looking at the same draft class as we are. This won't happen.

Bucks: (since DoM mentioned it) You're trading Dragic for a high non-lottery pick and you're bringing back Monroe, which is a huge price to pay for dumping our excellent point guard. Bucks will be in the postseason. If we did this, we need to get something besides a draft pick and Monroe back. You may need a third team here.

Wolves: This is a potential good deal and might yield a pick, but where is there incentive? Their team is young and their coach wants them to contend sooner rather than later. They have Rubio already and may want to dump Pekovic on us.

Wizards: They have Wall.

Kings: (just no - they can't trade their picks until 2021 aside from finishing in the bottom ten now (which they won't with Dragic-Cousins) and then it becomes two seconds).

Pelicans: I like this one more. I think it's worth exploring. We'd bring back Tyreke Evans and a pick. The Pelicans, however, are not a postseason team even with Dragic. Also they have Jrue Holliday (who isn't a PG) playing SG and Tim Frazier (who is doing well) at PG, so if they are doing the same as we are (playing for a pick to put next to a great asset - AD), we aren't doing a deal.

Suns: skipping because of the heavy irony.

Pistons: Already a huge investment in Reggie Jackson. Won't happen.

Nuggets: Right now they are investing in Mudiay. They have an asset to exchange though in Danilo. They also have a ton of young assets, so don't need the pick as much as some other teams. Nuggets may want to dump MEM pick instead.

Chicago: If there is an injury to Rondo for example, but that pick would be in the mid to high 20s. Not worth it.

Utah Jazz: Would possibly deal the GS first. They have Exum and Hill, so this would happen only if there is a disaster.

No real point in Hawks, Pacers, Hornets, Blazers etc. I honestly don't see a deal here, but if I could choose a partner it would probably be the Wolves. I think Dragic would do pretty well there honestly.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#5 » by DayofMourning » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:52 pm

gom wrote:Let's talk about the trade of Dragic for a potential lottery pick. The problem is that trading Dragic can take a team that is missing a good point guard or has an injured point guard and take it out of the lottery. Drafting #12 in this draft can net you a PF like Hartenstein. Drafting #20 maybe someone like Grayson Allen. It's a good draft.

I have read in some story that (because we suck so badly) we had a 2nd round pick in 2017. That's simply not true:

31-40 goes to Memphis (to complete the dump last year), 41-60 to Atlanta (for James Ennis) in 2017
31-40 goes to Atlanta (for James Ennis), 41-60 to Memphis (same) in 2018

We already have a draft speculation thread for our pick (which looks good and I'll be adding to that too soon). I think we really should look at getting a 2nd in this draft though as well.


Dragic to Milwaukee. Get it done. We'll take a poor contract and an unprotected back. Seems fair.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#6 » by Mos_Heat » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:58 pm

Rose and 1st rounder for Dragic? I know that Phil is showing some signs of dementia, but even he won't do it, imo.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#7 » by ndnow » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:02 pm

Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#8 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:03 pm

ndnow wrote:Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?


Build around Whiteside.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#9 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:04 pm

Mos_Heat wrote:Rose and 1st rounder for Dragic? I know that Phil is showing some signs of dementia, but even he won't do it, imo.



Rose and #24 for Dragic doesn't sound too bad if it means filling MSG for CLE-NYK games. Just speaking as a New Yorker in exile.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#10 » by Mos_Heat » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:08 pm

gom wrote:
Mos_Heat wrote:Rose and 1st rounder for Dragic? I know that Phil is showing some signs of dementia, but even he won't do it, imo.



Rose and #24 for Dragic doesn't sound too bad if it means filling MSG for CLE-NYK games. Just speaking as a New Yorker in exile.

I don't see it, but it would be fun for sure
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#11 » by Bishop45 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:09 pm

ndnow wrote:Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?


He's not someone you build around imo but we have great assets(including him). Either we build with him or use him for other pieces, just not blindly invest in the draft

We've got rookie contracts and expiree's, not to mention the draft pick if we want to make something from nothing for our base this year
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#12 » by dolphinatik » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:15 pm

Lots of teams need guards. Perfect time to unload dragic babbitt and McRoberts for assets and bringet up weber white jank
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unless we trade up for Barrett or trade down for PJ Washington
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#13 » by J-House » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:16 pm

ndnow wrote:Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?

I would stay with Whiteside. He's not a first option but that is why we need to find the right PG to gel with him whether it is through a trade or the draft.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#14 » by DayofMourning » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:19 pm

ndnow wrote:Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?


I think we've seen how the glass can be half empty in free agency the last few years. Hassan is what, 28 years old? How many prime time, superstar level players are going to come to play with him? I don't see many. Not because Hassan isn't good, but he's not the star recruiter that a guy like Wade was, or the GSW were for Durant. He's a very productive player who is a fabulous accessory, not a fundamental building block. I have no problems with moving Hassan to try to build a better team because of that.

If we keep him, then that's fine. I don't see us contending for a title with Hassan as our pillar player. At the end of the day, I'm a fan of big men, so if we keep him, then at least that's a niche that I've got covered. I'd rather win titles though, so I'd find a way to make the largest majority of my pieces fit that scheme. Winslow is going to take a few years, and whoever we draft this year is going to be the same. A 30+ year old Whiteside is going to have to age gracefully for that combo to work out.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#15 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:25 pm

DayofMourning wrote:
ndnow wrote:Well, do we want to build around Whiteside or not? If we do, I'd imagine riding out the rest of the season grabbing a draft pick and trading up our chips to a bigger denomination. If we don't, start identifying players value and trade them for futures while targeting the next 3 drafts.

What do you guys think, build around Whiteside or go full rebuild?


I think we've seen how the glass can be half empty in free agency the last few years. Hassan is what, 28 years old? How many prime time, superstar level players are going to come to play with him? I don't see many. Not because Hassan isn't good, but he's not the star recruiter that a guy like Wade was, or the GSW were for Durant. He's a very productive player who is a fabulous accessory, not a fundamental building block. I have no problems with moving Hassan to try to build a better team because of that.

If we keep him, then that's fine. I don't see us contending for a title with Hassan as our pillar player. At the end of the day, I'm a fan of big men, so if we keep him, then at least that's a niche that I've got covered. I'd rather win titles though, so I'd find a way to make the largest majority of my pieces fit that scheme. Winslow is going to take a few years, and whoever we draft this year is going to be the same. A 30+ year old Whiteside is going to have to age gracefully for that combo to work out.


It depends who we add. If Bosh comes off the books and we keep Dragic and add someone like Blake Griffin to the team, we're looking at a quality group. I think Riley still has a couple surprises up his sleeve. A potential Free Agent needs to see established assets plus a group of young players who give them reason to believe. I think we're almost there on both accounts.

Plus, you just don't see guys with that much raw talent very often. Whiteside is entertaining as hell. He's got mitts for hands.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#16 » by DayofMourning » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:30 pm

gom wrote:It depends who we add. If Bosh comes off the books and we keep Dragic and add someone like Blake Griffin to the team, we're looking at a quality group. I think Riley still has a couple surprises up his sleeve.


I don't see Blake leaving a contending team to come to Miami. Does he have any connections to the players on our current team? Do we have a better prospective outlook over the next handful of years than LA has now? I think Blake is a pipe dream at this point. If we had made some better moves this past season, then maybe, but losing Lebron hurt our image, and losing Wade really hurt our image. Free agents are not going to be looking our way as they have done in the not so distant past. The draft looks like the safest bet to get talent and at a very affordable rate. This gives the team to hopefully build some loyalty and add to the Heat culture.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#17 » by gom » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:35 pm

DayofMourning wrote:
gom wrote:It depends who we add. If Bosh comes off the books and we keep Dragic and add someone like Blake Griffin to the team, we're looking at a quality group. I think Riley still has a couple surprises up his sleeve.


I don't see Blake leaving a contending team to come to Miami. Does he have any connections to the players on our current team? Do we have a better prospective outlook over the next handful of years than LA has now? I think Blake is a pipe dream at this point. If we had made some better moves this past season, then maybe, but losing Lebron hurt our image, and losing Wade really hurt our image. Free agents are not going to be looking our way as they have done in the not so distant past. The draft looks like the safest bet to get talent and at a very affordable rate. This gives the team to hopefully build some loyalty and add to the Heat culture.


That Clippers core is good at the moment, but do you think they will get past Golden State? I don't and I think Blake Griffin doesn't either. We have the same problem with the Cavs in the EC but two years from now it's possible that the pages turn. Not in the West though. That's a dynasty like the Bulls now that they've added Durant.

Also, Blake is younger than Chris Paul by 4 years. There are only 3 players younger than Blake Griffin on the Clippers. There are 9 players younger on the Heat right now and one is Hassan Whiteside.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#18 » by Mos_Heat » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:45 pm

If Blake wants to leave LA and win now, he will choose Boston or Chicago, not Miami
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#19 » by shanedude » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:47 pm

I also think its unlikiely that a superstar FA would be willing to join a lottery Heat.
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Re: Trade Speculation (aside from Dragic-Gay which has its own thread) 

Post#20 » by DayofMourning » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:49 pm

gom wrote:That Clippers core is good at the moment, but do you think they will get past Golden State? I don't and I think Blake Griffin doesn't either. We have the same problem with the Cavs in the EC but two years from now it's possible that the pages turn. Not in the West though. That's a dynasty like the Bulls now that they've added Durant.

Also, Blake is younger than Chris Paul by 4 years. There are only 3 players younger than Blake Griffin on the Clippers. There are 9 players younger on the Heat right now and one is Hassan Whiteside.


I don't think we have a convincing enough argument for Blake to consider us regardless of the competition he may or may not face. He's going to have to face GSW one way or the other. Might as well have a sure thing roster wise in LA, then possibilities in Miami.

I think we are going to adapt to our current situation. The pool of FAs this coming offseason doesn't fit for us because of some of the things we've already mentioned and some others as well. What we do have in front of us is a once in a lifetime opportunity to cash in our assets in a talent heavy draft. This is when we should push our chips forward and go all in. At least then we know where we are headed and would have a definitive blueprint moving forward.
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