Hollinger: Bucks 9th in East, 38-44

[LUKE23]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2 ... ks-outlook

So how is this backcourt thing going to work? Ellis and Jennings are not only an odd couple in the backcourt, but could be at cross purposes as both look to get paid this summer. Jennings will be a restricted free agent, most likely, while Ellis has an opt-out that I'd say he's at least 50 percent likely to exercise.

Yet the biggest question with both is at the other end; each is undersized and Ellis in particular has shown little inclination to expend much effort defensively. Which gets to the real crux of the problem: Ellis is a sixth man masquerading as a go-to guy, and unfortunately the Bucks reinforced this by playing him 40+ minutes many nights after the trade.

Of course, for the Bucks this is an issue more in theory than in practice, as they don't have a starting 2 anyway. They don't have any wing defenders either, with the glaring exception of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, but his inability to shoot creates substantial problems in its own right -- and is why the Bucks have often used him as a 4 in recent seasons. That won't be an option with the top-heavy frontcourt, and it may be that the Bucks look to trade from their surplus to fill in the backcourt more ably. In particular, dealing Gooden for a starting 2 that can shoot and defend would solve several of these problems at once.

In the meantime, keep an eye on Harris, who will be the backup small forward and could emerge as the go-to guy for the second unit. (If it isn't Ellis, that is). Milwaukee will again have an extremely strong bench; in fact, as Gooden is one of the best No. 3 bigs in basketball, backup center Ekpe Udoh is an outstanding defender, reserve guards Beno Udrih and Dunleavy are very solid players, and even fifth big Larry Sanders is a crazy shot-blocker with some upside.

The bench strength guarantees that the Bucks can survive the regular-season grind in decent shape, but the bigger question is whether there's sufficient star power and defensive gravitas to push them above the East's lottery flotsam. That's particularly true given that Skiles may be at the end of his road here, as his track record is that he burns out after a few years in one city; this is now in his fifth in Brewtown, and Year 4 wasn't pretty.

It wouldn't shock me to see Milwaukee return to the postseason, especially if the Bucks can make another roster tweak or two. But the more likely scenario is that they challenge for the playoffs again -- and once again fall short. The Bucks either need a defensive renaissance or a breakout season from one of the guards to exceed that projection; either is possible, but neither is particularly likely.

[paulpressey25]

Hollinger continues to drink the Kool aid on Drew Gooden.

If he's as valuable as John thinks, we should have no problem dealing him even up for Wes Matthews or the like.

[LUKE23]

I don't really disagree with anything he said outside of Gooden being a trade asset. We're deep but we have no star power. Depth will keep you in games, but depth doesn't move the needle in terms of the standings.

An all-star needs to emerge. It would also help a lot to move Ellis and one of our surplus bigs for a more efficient, bigger long-term wing if possible. Don't know that guy is out there. We need to try and maximize that trade asset to whatever value it has though. Ellis will be opting out in all likelihood.

[JimmyTheKid]

That won't be an option with the top-heavy frontcourt, and it may be that the Bucks look to trade from their surplus to fill in the backcourt more ably. In particular, dealing Gooden for a starting 2 that can shoot and defend would solve several of these problems at once.

Great idea Hollinger! While we're at it, how about Tobes/Ellis/Pryz for Lebron James and Mbah a Moute/Udrih/Dalembert for Dwight Howard. Eh? Eh? Eh?

I usually don't mind Hollinger, but really? To get any player with any sort of above average skill set for Drew Gooden is a ridiculous pipe dream.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

his comments on gooden pretty much nullify his opinion here.

[LUKE23]

his comments on gooden pretty much nullify his opinion here.

Not really. Pretty much everything he said is true.

1. Ellis/Jennings is a poor fit as a backcourt.
2. We have a lot of depth but no stars, and stars are what win a relevant amount of games.

[emunney]

I agree with GoS. The idea that Gooden is one of the best bench bigs in basketball is a window into the disposable quantitative methodology that informs ALL his opinions. It doesn't mean he's always going to be wrong, but it does mean it's not worth parsing. Throw it all out.

[EastSideBucksFan]

Marquis Daniels will be a better wing defender than some give him credit for.

[LUKE23]

I think it's perfectly viable to disagree with what PER represents but also agree with his basketball opinions. For one, his draft rater to me has been very good. He obviously also watches all teams quite a bit and has a fundamental understanding of advanced stats. Do I like PER? No, I hate it, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know the game.

Personally, looking at his summary, I don't really disagree with any of it. Poor backcourt pairing, lack of wing defenders sans Moute, depth but very little difference between starters and bench players, likes Harris' potential, etc.

[LUKE23]

Marquis Daniels will be a better wing defender than some give him credit for.

If he's playing any kind of substantial minutes we have some problems though.

[SpursNBucks]

This guy is one of the most over-rated analysts out there. As mentioned- the comments on Gooden pretty much nullify the rest. The rest of what he says is pretty obvious casual fan talk. Nothing really of substance.

[ReasonablySober]

Basketball Prospectus also has the Bucks at 38-44. FWIW, here is what they said about Gooden this season:

We are entering year three of the five-year deal the Bucks gave Drew Gooden in 2010. If he can continue to perform as well as he did in 2011-12, the contract isn’t going to be “mind-numbingly bad,” as we wrote in this space last December. Gooden upped his value by markedly improving his assist rate for the second straight season. Going into his first year in Milwaukee, our skill ratings had Gooden rated as a -3 passer; as you can see, he’s now at +3. He’s also made small strides to improve his efficiency-killing midrange game, taking 55 threes last year, more than double his previous career high. Gooden still gives up way too much on the defensive end to be a full-time player. Last year, the Bucks’ Defensive Rating was 12.8 points worse with him on the floor. That was only the most glaring example of a preexisting trend. With so many frontcourt options, the Bucks can use Gooden in an instant offense role. One note: His leap at age 30 marks him as a Fluke Rule candidate according to the definition of ESPN’s John Hollinger. Indeed, SCHOENE is forecasting a merciless regression.

[BucksBrew]

He's trying to help us trade Gooden SHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

Yeah Gooden is great.

[KingCammo]

I think we should keep Gooden...for the lolz.

[EastSideBucksFan]

Oh sweet....Gooden is a +3 passer now.....I'm sure we can move him for Wade now.