DrugBust wrote:Basketball Prospectus also has the Bucks at 38-44. FWIW, here is what they said about Gooden this season:
We are entering year three of the five-year deal the Bucks gave Drew Gooden in 2010. If he can continue to perform as well as he did in 2011-12, the contract isn’t going to be “mind-numbingly bad,” as we wrote in this space last December. Gooden upped his value by markedly improving his assist rate for the second straight season. Going into his first year in Milwaukee, our skill ratings had Gooden rated as a -3 passer; as you can see, he’s now at +3. He’s also made small strides to improve his efficiency-killing midrange game, taking 55 threes last year, more than double his previous career high. Gooden still gives up way too much on the defensive end to be a full-time player. Last year, the Bucks’ Defensive Rating was 12.8 points worse with him on the floor. That was only the most glaring example of a preexisting trend. With so many frontcourt options, the Bucks can use Gooden in an instant offense role. One note: His leap at age 30 marks him as a Fluke Rule candidate according to the definition of ESPN’s John Hollinger. Indeed, SCHOENE is forecasting a merciless regression.
All this is was an over-rated analyst and a nerd stat abstract BS. I have fun with all the box score manipulation and bringing Money Ball to the NBA, but you have to watch the games and pick up some of the things that you don't see in a box score.
In Gooden's case- his box score was actually better then what you saw- and that means he really sucked. I know a lot of you hate Ellis, but I see him playing hustle defense (maybe not the greatest I admit). I see him as a premier passer at the 2G. I see he and Jennings developing a good chemistry. I see their combined speed on the court giving defenses trouble. Their speed fits in well with their shot blocking.
The Bucks will be no worse then 5th seed in the East. Brooklyn, Miami, and NY are better. I think Chicago or Boston could possibly beat them out, but I don't think both. So best case would be 4th seed and worst case would be 5th.
A lot of people were worried they would keep giving Gooden big minutes. I don't think many thought that Sanders, Udoh, and Dal would have this kind of inside presence. I think Jennings could become that STAR player if he keeps playing close to this- Top 6 PG. Skiles is doing a good job coaching- effective rotations.
I think it's obvious people around here had become to bitter and it became kind of "group think" - EVERYONE SUCKS, except Bogut and they traded him. I disagreed and continue to - What I agree on is the owner is too meddling and has set low goals. I also agreed that Gooden should be traded. I didn't agree with Ellis sucking, Hammond being an idiot. I partially agreed on Skiles- I always thought of him as a Coach with a short shelf life wherever he went- his style probably wears thin after a while.
Most of the people here have very high BB IQs- it's just it got to be way too doom and gloom. I KNOW IT IS WAY EARLY, but I hope they keep doing well and things here get more positive.