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Hammond Comments: Boston Model?

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Post#1 Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:26 pm by LUKE23

Don't know if this was posted earlier, but some decent comments from Hammond in this piece by Thomsen. I'd say interesting comments, although Boston's asset base at the time included:

Pierce: annual all-star, borderline superstar
#5 overall pick in 07 draft
Al Jefferson: goes top 5 any year with the age rule

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... nba_bf3_a6

"When you use terminology like, 'We're trying to figure it out,' people probably think you've got to be better and you've got to be smarter than to use terminology like that," Hammond said. "But that's where we are. We're a work in progress, and I don't know what road we're going to go down. Can we eventually acquire enough young assets? We have some now, and we're going to have to acquire more. Can we acquire a group that's good enough to contend?"

The Bucks aren't seeking to trade Jennings because they want to keep him and because they're trying to make the playoffs -- trying to win even as they rebuild with youth.

"Everybody wants young players, and they want to see a bright future, but obviously they want to win," Hammond said. "I always talk about what Danny did." He was referring to the course established originally by Celtics president Danny Ainge, which was to rebuild through the draft. Then the Celtics lost the 2007 lottery, and Ainge traded most of his young assets for veterans Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.

"He sits here today with a championship and still a very competitive team," Hammond said. "And that's where we want to be someday."

That's the ultimate example of figuring it out along the way. The best plans are subservient to unpredictable events.

The Thunder serve as a model for how to develop a small-market franchise. But the Thunder established their foundation of young players first by picking No. 2 when a franchise player was available, which was fortunate because a star like Kevin Durant isn't on the board every year; and also by losing an average of 55 games for four straight years, which is something the Bucks haven't been willing to endure.

"Oklahoma City was built with the second pick, the third pick, the fourth pick and the fifth pick," Hammond said. "The projection for our team going into the season is, if they don't have us as a playoff team, they have us right at the cusp of being in the playoffs. So we're still trying to serve two masters, to be honest with you. We're trying to win now, we're trying to do it with young talent, we're trying to do it with a fair salary structure.

"A top-five pick has a 42 percent chance of being an All-Star," added Hammond, referring to a 20-year study of NBA drafts. "In the last few years, we haven't been drafting in the top five. We've been in the 10-through-15 range the last four years, and it's difficult to do it that way.

"I hate to say these kinds of things because when you're an NBA general manager and you say we're still trying to figure it out, people say you've got to give me something better than that. But sometimes that is the terminology that is appropriate for what we're going through right now. ... I hate to go to the word luck, but small-market teams still need that luck. You need that lottery ball or that pick to fall your way."
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Post#2 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:32 pm by Thunder Muscle

"The projection for our team going into the season is, if they don't have us as a playoff team, they have us right at the cusp of being in the playoffs. So we're still trying to serve two masters, to be honest with you. We're trying to win now, we're trying to do it with young talent, we're trying to do it with a fair salary structure." - Hammond


Interesting. Hammond basically understands the top 5 picks are extremely helpful but our business direction is not to purposely tank.
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Post#3 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:34 pm by Newz

Sounds like he knows you have to tank, but he can't get the go ahead to tank.

Need to use the Houston model at that point... gather young assets that you can try to trade for a star player(s).
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Post#4 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:39 pm by DocHoliday

If we trade any of our young players for more old garbage I'm gonna be pissed.
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Post#5 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:41 pm by White+Purple

We'll trade all our young guys next summer for Ray and KG and then he'll wonder why we're still an 8th seed.
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Post#6 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:41 pm by jr lucosa

Furthers my belief that Hammond can be a good GM and has the basketball smarts to do it, hes just been Kohl'ed throughout his time here.
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Post#7 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:42 pm by CanadaBucks

OKC got soaked in that deal though. Allen and Big Baby for West, Sczerbiak and Jeff Green plus a 2nd whose name I can't remember. That's almost a worse fleecing than the Bucks got when trading Allen.
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Post#8 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:44 pm by LUKE23

CanadaBucks wrote:OKC got soaked in that deal though. Allen and Big Baby for West, Sczerbiak and Jeff Green plus a 2nd whose name I can't remember. That's almost a worse fleecing than the Bucks got when trading Allen.


Maybe, although Ray was over 30 at the time. They just messed up the pick badly. It more just shows the value top 5 picks have though.
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Post#9 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:46 pm by emunney

I reject the assumption that Jefferson automatically goes top 5 if he goes to college. There is no telling what his college experience would have been like. Besides, it's not like guys still don't slip, or even that they didn't before the influx of high school talent. But this is only a distraction from your main point, which I agree with.

It's enough to say that higher picks have always been and will always be higher yield on average than lower picks. In the specific case of pre-Big 3 Boston, it's also enough to say that Boston had a more enticing collection of young talent and assets than we currently do, plus Paul Pierce.
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Post#10 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:47 pm by LUKE23

Really though, to me, this team needs to work harder at acquiring multiple 1st round picks. They appear to have good scouting right now, use it to your advantage. It's ridiculous that we haven't had multiple 1sts at any point during the JH tenure, but there are other small market teams (Portland, Minny off the top of my head) that do it repeatedly.
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Post#11 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:48 pm by Villanoeyebrows

Totally agree on the multiple first picks thing. We should be acquiring as many as possible.

Contrary to the beliefs of some, Hammond is not an idiot. I don't know where he ranks among current GMs, and he certainly has made some indefensible moves. But the idea (by Bill Simmons) that an outsider could come in and run a team better oversimplifies the job, and overlooks the mountains of data analysis, talent projections, and intuition needed to run a ball club. In this piece alone, Hammond kind of eludes to two huge obstacles a GM faces (Kohl preventing him from tanking, as well as the infrequency of franchise changing talent).

I'm not going to bat for Bucks management, they really are morons. If people in the academic world followed sports they would use the Bogut trade in case studies and text books (about how to minimize the value of your best asset by ascribing to an arbitrary goal i.e make the playoffs, that others do not ascribe to).

But I digress. We have value on our roster. There is hope ahead. Hammond is a moron, but not a super moron. And that has to put him in the middle of the pack as far as GMs go. The next two months is probably more important for the future of the franchise than any in years.
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Post#12 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:51 pm by Nebula1

jr lucosa wrote:Furthers my belief that Hammond can be a good GM and has the basketball smarts to do it, hes just been Kohl'ed throughout his time here.


That's where I'm at too. Seems like he's politically dealing with ideological friction and describing the impasse as 'trying to figure it out.'
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Post#13 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:54 pm by Treebeard

I haven't been impressed with most of his trades, and several of the veteran contracts; but in this interview he sounds like there is an actual plan. He hasn't been real articulate about expressing that idea before. This article is through SI, and seemingly not the usual spoon fed crap from the Bucks front office through the tame local media.

I get the idea of using Boston as a model. There's no tolerance out there for the Celtics tanking for any reason. However, I think most of us beleive that the C's have a whole pile more cards to play with than the Bucks, so their prospects for rebuilding on the fly are better than Milwaukee. The Houston idea is probably a more comparable situation. I really don't like the idea of continually mortgaging your future (sending out your prospects and picks) for a batch of has-been vets, with a vague notion of hitting the playoffs. That's a bad bet.

Still, I have a hard time seeing Kohl clearing the decks of (lower salaried) youth, if he's really trying to sell the club.
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Post#14 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:59 pm by emunney

I've always thought Hammond was a C or C+ GM. But look at what an F GM (Kahn) can do if you spot him a superstar (Love) and a grip of high (and low, really) 1sts. He's basically made the Potsie mistake three times and STILL has a winner. He's already dumped two top 6 busts from the past 4 drafts and might have another one on his hands. David Kahn is the monkey who wrote Shakespeare.
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Post#15 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:02 pm by LUKE23

Boston's top 6 assets at the time were:

1. Pierce
2. 2007 #5
3. Jefferson
4. Wolves 1st from Davis/Wally trade
5. Perkins
6. Rondo coming off his 1st year (pretty pedestrian rookie year)

Bucks top 6 assets currently are???

Choose from:

Jennings, Ellis, Harris, Sanders, Udoh, Moute, Lamb, Henson, expirings of Dalembert/Udrih/Dunleavy, 2013 #15-18

It's hard to rank them or decipher them. We have solid depth of assets but no truly league-wide valued assets.
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Post#16 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:05 pm by emunney

You can throw Perk in there, too.
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Post#17 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:07 pm by E-Buck

If going Boston's route is in his plans, maybe we could make moves for Amare and JSmoove?

Knicks get: Ilyasova and LRMAM
Bucks get: Amare Stoudemire

Hawks get: 2013 first round pick, Monta Ellis, and Drew Gooden
Bucks get: Josh Smith (signed to extension) and Anthony Morrow

Magic get: Samuel Dalembert, Doron Lamb, future first round pick
Bucks get: Arron Afflalo

Brandon Jennings/Beno Udrih
Arron Afflalo/Anthony Morrow
Josh Smith/Mike Dunleavy/Tobias Harris
Amare Stoudemire/John Henson
Larry Sanders/Ekpe Udoh
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Post#18 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:08 pm by LUKE23

E-Buck wrote:If going Boston's route is in his plans, maybe we could make moves for Amare and JSmoove?
Knicks get: Ilyasova and LRMAM
Bucks get: Amare Stoudemire


Perma-ban, IMO.
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Post#19 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:12 pm by jr lucosa

LUKE23 wrote:Boston's top 6 assets at the time were:

1. Pierce
2. 2007 #5
3. Jefferson
4. Wolves 1st from Davis/Wally trade
5. Perkins
6. Rondo coming off his 1st year (pretty pedestrian rookie year)

Bucks top 6 assets currently are???

Choose from:

Jennings, Ellis, Harris, Sanders, Udoh, Moute, Lamb, Henson, expirings of Dalembert/Udrih/Dunleavy, 2013 #15-18

It's hard to rank them or decipher them. We have solid depth of assets but no truly league-wide valued assets.


If we're counting rookie Rondo and Perkins at that time as clear cut assets I think it's only fair to say we at least have two with our back court combo and another emerging one in Sanders.

What did the wolves pick end up as again?
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Post#20 Re: Hammond Comments: Boston Model?
Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:12 pm by E-Buck

LUKE23 wrote:
E-Buck wrote:If going Boston's route is in his plans, maybe we could make moves for Amare and JSmoove?
Knicks get: Ilyasova and LRMAM
Bucks get: Amare Stoudemire


Perma-ban, IMO.


Lol you wouldn't trade Ersan for STAT? Even at his age and knee condition, he's better than Ersan.
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