Trades for the Bucks to blow it up

[Lucky Striker]

MIL Trades: Dunleavy, Udrih, and T.Harris
MEM Trades: Rudy Gay

[AussieBuck]

**** no.

[emunney]

Some people around here have this weird notion in their head that Ersan is getting paid to be the guy he was during the second half of the season when he was a 16/10 guy with .580 TS%. You know how many players did that in the entire league over the course of the season? One. Andrew Bynum. If that's the guy the league thought they were going to get with Ersan, don't you think we'd be paying him a contract in line with that production?

That's just the thing. To compete at a high level, we can't pay guys contracts in line with their production. We have to have team favorable contracts. Those are the ones that give you an advantage. That's why the true max guys are so valuable -- you can't possibly pay them what they're worth. LeBron gives you 40 million dollars worth of wins for 20 million dollars (ballparking, you get the idea). You can now afford to be average with the rest of your resources.

We don't have those true max guys. You can call that the problem, and it is in some sense, but it's because of the economy of it. Paying Ersan 8m to be an 8m guy isn't a rip off, but it's a road to nowhere. That said, for the teams that have already created a favorable economic situation, or for teams for whom those constraints aren't as pressing (NJ, LAL, NYK, maybe DAL), Ersan still has value. And also for dumb teams. Ersan on his contract playing about like he is represents .500 basketball.

[emunney]

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/27/sports/la-sp-ln-pau-gasol-has-a-limited-trade-kicker-20121127

Pau's trade kicker, which was supposed to be 15%, is only 3.4% under the terms of the new CBA. I wonder if he'd report. I think we'd have to make another trade for Pierce or Wade or somebody just to get him in the door.

I think he'd show up.

I think the whole notion that Pau would come to Milwaukee and not show up, figurative or literal, is ridiculous.

He might be hurt and be a shell of his former self, but he has tons to still play for.

Remind me, what does he have to play for? He's got two rings. He's got a WC with Spain. He's won everything he could win. He's not going to get another huge contract, and he'll have made close to 160 million dollars through the end of this deal. Would anybody be surprised if he went back to the ACB to finish up after this contract runs out?

[eagle13]

That Matthews deal is atrocious for Portland.

Besides it can't happen as is. Can't acquire a player (Meeks) and include him in another trade bundled with other players. You can trade that player by himself.

[emunney]

That Matthews deal is atrocious for Portland.

Besides it can't happen as is. Can't acquire a player (Meeks) and include him in another trade bundled with other players. You can trade that player by himself.

You can do it if it's part of the same trade.

[Nebula1]

Trade Ersan/Monta/Jr

[jr lucosa]

I've said this with a good number of players that have come through here over the last decade and most know this, but I don't get worked up over paying a guy what Ersan's making. Once you get past your rookie deal, if you're an average player you're going to get $7 million, and probably more. The deals that kill you are the ones that deal out twice or three times as much for non all-star talent, and right now that's what Gasol is. So I'm fine with paying Ersan his $8 million. He's trending up and even if he plays to his career level, he's stilll worth it.

Some people around here have this weird notion in their head that Ersan is getting paid to be the guy he was during the second half of the season when he was a 16/10 guy with .580 TS%. You know how many players did that in the entire league over the course of the season? One. Andrew Bynum. If that's the guy the league thought they were going to get with Ersan, don't you think we'd be paying him a contract in line with that production?

I wish his rebounding rate was better and I wish he didn't start the season shooting as bad as an NBA player could. But his shooting has come around and Sanders is turning into a monster on the boards. His plus/minus blows away anyone not Dunleavy and his ORtg and DRtg are good. For $8 million a season, he's a good investment.

Very good post. Couldn't have said it better myself. He's getting paid in the range that players who are non-stars and also don't suck coming off their rookie deals get paid. He's not unmovable now and at no point will his contract be imo. We aren't desperate for cap space and we sure aren't (well I'm not) desperate to find a 30 something year old making 20m per with bad knees to come replace him.

[ReasonablySober]

I've said this with a good number of players that have come through here over the last decade and most know this, but I don't get worked up over paying a guy what Ersan's making. Once you get past your rookie deal, if you're an average player you're going to get $7 million, and probably more. The deals that kill you are the ones that deal out twice or three times as much for non all-star talent, and right now that's what Gasol is. So I'm fine with paying Ersan his $8 million. He's trending up and even if he plays to his career level, he's stilll worth it.

I just don't believe this to be true at all. Here's a list of players with a quick look that aren't clearly better then Ersan that got over $6 million a year the past few seasons.

Jeff Green
Brandon Bass
Kris Humphries (2 year deal)
Tyrus Thomas
Taj Gibson
Rodney Stuckey
George Hill
Thaddeus Young
Spencers Hawes (2 year deal)
Landry Fields
Wilson Chandler
Jeremy Lin
Kendrick Perkins
Channing Frye
Marcus Thornton

They may be "average" guys, but I'd certainly say most are overpaid by a wide margin. Who are the only ones we could argue are good? Young has been much better then Ersan, Gibson is an elite defender, maybe he's on the level of Hill but for a perennial 8th seed is he worth 8 million? Not in my opinion. The list of guys not clearly better then Ersan making over 6 million (let alone 8) is small, the amount of guys worth those deals is even smaller.

Some people around here have this weird notion in their head that Ersan is getting paid to be the guy he was during the second half of the season when he was a 16/10 guy with .580 TS%. You know how many players did that in the entire league over the course of the season? One. Andrew Bynum. If that's the guy the league thought they were going to get with Ersan, don't you think we'd be paying him a contract in line with that production?

I wish his rebounding rate was better and I wish he didn't start the season shooting as bad as an NBA player could. But his shooting has come around and Sanders is turning into a monster on the boards. His plus/minus blows away anyone not Dunleavy and his ORtg and DRtg are good. For $8 million a season, he's a good investment.

Did I think he'd be the player we saw last season? No. But he isn't even a consistent 10/5 player let alone a consistent 10/5 player on consistent efficiency. He is all across the board this season.

I always see you talk about "after his first 7 games" or whatever and what's his TS% after those games? 53.3%, right at the league average. He isn't overly efficient at all even without those "bad" games. And I don't even see how those are considered bad games. He put up quite a bit of those even past those 7 games, he just strung them together instead of sporadically had them. You want even push it farther and do past when he was benched and he's only at 54.8% which is hardly over efficient for a guy who's been as selective with his shots as he's been.

Edit - And you want to talk about after Skiles stopped "messing with him" and he got consistent minutes under Boylan, 42.8% TS% in those 4 games. Yup, you read that right.

Alright, here's your list. Every player in the league making over $6.5 million:

Bryant 27.8
Dirk 20.9
Arenas 20.8
Stoudemire 19.9
Johnson 19.7
Anthony 19.4
Howard 19.2
Gasol 19.0
Paul 17.8
James 17.5
Bosh 17.5
Durant 17.5
D. Williams 17.2
Wade 17.0
Bynum 16.4
Roy 16.3
Pierce 16.8
Rose 16.4
Brand 16.0
A. Jefferson 15.0
Boozer 15.0
Davis 14.85
Iguodala 14.7
Ginobili 14.1
Westbrook 13.7
Lopez 13.7
Hibbert 13.7
R. Lewis 13.7
E. Gordon 13.7
Griffin 13.6
Harden 13.6
Love 13.6
Chandler 13.6
Okafor 13.5
Deng 13.3
J. Smith 13.2
Bogut 13.1
Nene 13.0
Aldridge 13.0
Granger 13.0
Martin 12.9
D. Lee 12.7
Parker 12.5
Garnett 12.5
B. Gordon 12.4
Ibaka 12.3
Humphries 12.0
Horford 12.0
Batum 11.9
Turkoglu 11.8
Noah 11.1
Rondo 11.0
Holiday 11.0
Ellis 11.0
Lawson 10.7
Maggette 10.9
Calderon 10.6
Jordan 10.5
S. Jackson 10.1
Jefferson 10.1
Bargnani 10.0
McGee 10.0
West 10.0
Kirilenko 9.7
Duncan 9.6
Wallace 9.6
DeRozan 9.5
Gallinari 9.4
Biedrins 9.0
Nash 8.9
R. Anderson 8.7
Marion 8.6
Nelson 8.6
M. Williams 8.5
Stuckey 8.5
D. Harris 8.5
Varejao 8.4
Mar. Williams 8.2
Odom 8.2
Green 8.1
Salmons 8.1
Thornton 8.1
Butler 8.0
Geo. Hill 8.0
Villanueva 8.0
T. Thomas 8.0
Kaman 8.0
Young 8.0
Ilyasova: 7.9
Blatche 7.7
Perkins 7.8
Udrih 7.8
Afflalo 7.5
Gibson 7.5
Dragic 7.5
Diop 7.3
Ariza 7.2
Milssap 7.2
World Peace 7.2
Matthews 6.8
Dallembert 6.7
Harrington 6.7
Prince 6.7
Gooden 6.6
Am. Johnson 6.5
Hawes 6.5
Frye 6.5
Childress 6.5
Bass 6.5

110 players. Ersan is 88th on that list.

Keep in mind that Ersan is one of the rare players on that list without an escalating salary. Some of the guys below him are going to make more than him in the coming years. Some of the guys above him are going to make a lot more.

I was right, obviously. Once you get past your rookie deal, if you're even average, you're going to make over $7 million.

Now think about all the guys out there on their rookie deals that are set to join that club in the next three years.

I don't know how anyone could make a case that Ersan is overpaid, having looked at that list. At the very least, he's in line with what others have got. It's probably easier for me to make a case he's underpaid.

[ReasonablySober]

Some people around here have this weird notion in their head that Ersan is getting paid to be the guy he was during the second half of the season when he was a 16/10 guy with .580 TS%. You know how many players did that in the entire league over the course of the season? One. Andrew Bynum. If that's the guy the league thought they were going to get with Ersan, don't you think we'd be paying him a contract in line with that production?

That's just the thing. To compete at a high level, we can't pay guys contracts in line with their production. We have to have team favorable contracts. Those are the ones that give you an advantage. That's why the true max guys are so valuable -- you can't possibly pay them what they're worth. LeBron gives you 40 million dollars worth of wins for 20 million dollars (ballparking, you get the idea). You can now afford to be average with the rest of your resources.

We don't have those true max guys. You can call that the problem, and it is in some sense, but it's because of the economy of it. Paying Ersan 8m to be an 8m guy isn't a rip off, but it's a road to nowhere. That said, for the teams that have already created a favorable economic situation, or for teams for whom those constraints aren't as pressing (NJ, LAL, NYK, maybe DAL), Ersan still has value. And also for dumb teams. Ersan on his contract playing about like he is represents .500 basketball.

I agree with everything you said, no doubt about it. And I think if I was going to guess at the route this team has chosen to take, we'll soon be paying Baddy $8.5 and Sanders $10 a season and we'll be in further away from acquiring that franchise player.

If it were me I'd dump our back court, move Dunleavy and Udoh, play the young guys and take my lotto picks. Depending on what my roster looked like next summer, I could see really gutting the roster and tanking for Wiggins.

[eagle13]

OF that 110 players - IMO 44 / 40% are overpaid - I would not want at their salary

OVER-PAID
Dirk 20.9
Arenas 20.8
Stoudemire 19.9
Johnson 19.7
Gasol 19.0
Roy 16.3
Brand 16.0
A. Jefferson 15.0
Boozer 15.0
Lopez 13.7
R. Lewis 13.7
Okafor 13.5
Bogut 13.1
Aldridge 13.0
Martin 12.9
B. Gordon 12.4
Humphries 12.0
Turkoglu 11.8
Ellis 11.0
Maggette 10.9
Calderon 10.6
S. Jackson 10.1
Jefferson 10.1
Bargnani 10.0
McGee 10.0
Kirilenko 9.7
DeRozan 9.5
Biedrins 9.0
D. Harris 8.5
Mar. Williams 8.2
Odom 8.2
Green 8.1
Salmons 8.1
Butler 8.0
Villanueva 8.0
T. Thomas 8.0
Udrih 7.8
Gibson 7.5
Diop 7.3
Ariza 7.2
World Peace 7.2
Harrington 6.7
Gooden 6.6
Frye 6.5

Maybe Udrih & Derozan are OK?

[Lippo]

Here is an ALL IN trade

Bucks and Lakers
Ersan/Sanders/Gooden/1st(lotto protected) for Dwight Howard

Bucks and Hawks
Dunleavy/Udoh/Moute/2nd for Josh Smith

Jennings/Udrih
Ellis/Udrih/Lamb
Smith/Harris/Daniels
Henson/Harris/Priz
Howard/Dale/Priz

# Buddies Together At Last With BJ
Howard/Smith/Ellis/Jennings + whoever ='s Semi Finals
If by some chance we beat the Heat and Thinder and win it all, we will have done the impossible and changed the culture around here. Pull a Celtics Part IV on the NBA. (Celtics/Heat/Bucks)

Then our tank would be in full effect after we lose all 4 in 2013-2014 and only have 4 players under contract.

[jr lucosa]

When half the league is overpaid are they still considered overpaid or is that just the going rate now?

Also, it's easy to say you don't want the Dirk, Amare, Boozer, Gasol, Roy, etc. contracts now. How about when those players signed them?

[LUKE23]

Here is an ALL IN trade

Bucks and Lakers
Ersan/Sanders/Gooden/1st(lotto protected) for Dwight Howard

Bucks and Hawks
Dunleavy/Udoh/Moute/2nd for Josh Smith

Jennings/Udrih
Ellis/Udrih/Lamb
Smith/Harris/Daniels
Henson/Harris/Priz
Howard/Dale/Priz

# Buddies Together At Last With BJ
Howard/Smith/Ellis/Jennings + whoever ='s Semi Finals

Then our tank would be in full effect after we lose all 4 in 2013-2014 and only have 4 players under contract.

[-Jragon-]

Don't know where to put this, but good thing we didn't trade for Curry (chronic ankle injury was why we didn't).

[Steve210]

Don't know where to put this, but good thing we didn't trade for Curry (chronic ankle injury was why we didn't).

Yep, after the Michael Redd & Andrew Bogut injury plagued seasons trading for a chronically injured player like Curry would have been a disaster, I'm sure glad we didn't make that mistake.

[LUKE23]

Yeah, instead we're hoping for an 8th seed with a healthy Ellis.

[Nebula1]

Would've rather gotten Klay than Curry (or Ellis), personally.

[RandyBreuer]

Curry out again with his bum ankle, I am stun.
What if the Lakers would take Gooden and throw in Hill in this deal?

Gasol/Hill/Morris in 23.5 mil
Ellis/Gooden/Dalembert/Pryzbilla out 25.2 mil

play Dunleavy and Morris at SG for the playoff push and you have Jordan Hill at a bargain next year.

[eagle13]

When half the league is overpaid are they still considered overpaid or is that just the going rate now?

Also, it's easy to say you don't want the Dirk, Amare, Boozer, Gasol, Roy, etc. contracts now. How about when those players signed them?

OVERPAID WHEN SIGNED (imo)
25 / 110 = 23%

Arenas 20.8
Johnson 19.7
Roy 16.3
Lopez 13.7
R. Lewis 13.7
Aldridge 13.0
Martin 12.9
B. Gordon 12.4
Humphries 12.0
Turkoglu 11.8
Maggette 10.9
Calderon 10.6
S. Jackson 10.1
Jefferson 10.1
McGee 10.0
Kirilenko 9.7
Biedrins 9.0
Green 8.1
Salmons 8.1
Butler 8.0
Villanueva 8.0
Diop 7.3
Gooden 6.6
Frye 6.5
Childress 6.5